Philippines never lost

[mr noob]

What would the would be like if the us didn't put a oil embargo on japan so they never attacked Hawaii or the Philippines would it stay a us territory?

[David S Poepoe]

I believe that the Philippines was slated for 'decolonization' and independence by 1941 or 1942.

[Iori]

Unless the United States government intended to either commit systematic genocide or keep a massive, brutal occupation force in the nation the Philippines are not going to remain as territories of the United States.

[Paul V McNutt]

The Tydings McGuffy Act of 1935 gave the Phillipines independence following a ten year transitio period that began in 1936.

[ArabianAdobo]

Originally Posted by mr noob

What would the would be like if the us didn't put a oil embargo on japan so they never attacked Hawaii or the Philippines would it stay a us territory?

The Philippines would have stayed as a US territory if the Federalistas (Filipino politicians who were pro-statehood) won the elections of 1935, and Quezon and his friends were merely sidelined.

[Paul V McNutt]

Quezon was president. I would not call that sidelined

[strangeland]

The Philippines were slated for independence in 1946, and the Japanese invasion and occupation ultimately had no effect on it. The U.S. of the 1940s wasn't about to give statehood to a bunch of non-white Catholics. It was equally unlikely that the Philippines would have agreed to remain a U.S. territory indefinitely.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Also, HOW you get the 'no Japanese invasion' makes a huge difference.

One thing that is often not mentioned is that even without the oil embargo, Japan was in deep trouble.

1) she was rapidly running out of hard currency, so she wouldn't have been able to BUY that oil soon.

2) even if ASBs fill the Japanese treasury with dollars, much of the cargo fleet carrying stuff to japan was foreign owned, including oil tankers. With the war in Europe and the desperate straits the European powers were in for shipping, most of that would have been pulled out of the Japan trade.

The oil embargo hastened the matter, and made it an acute crisis rather than a chronic one, but didn't change the underlying real problems.

[NoOneFamous]

The Japanese are not idiots, even with a neutral Philippines, the Japanese can not afford to leave them alone.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by NoOneFamous

The Japanese are not idiots, even with a neutral Philippines, the Japanese can not afford to leave them alone.

That.

The only thing that could have prevented the Japanese from starting the war with the US is the US retreating completely from the western pacific and making clear that they don't mind at all if Japan graps everything they can get, above all the Philippines. No matter what, the Japanese will attack the Philippines.

Considering whether the Philippines become states, I think there's a slight possibility with an earlier POD leading to a more benevolent American administration, less anti-catholicism and less racism in the US and a very strong Philippine movement against independence for whatever reasons (aggressive Japan? Communist Japan? Economic ties?). You'd probably need a POD that changes the US even before the Spanish-american war to do so.