What if - More slaves for Portugal?

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

By 1550, Portugal, had become the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world with colonies in Asia, Africa, and South America. Black African slaves were brought into Portugal from Africa between the middle 15th century until slavery was banned in the late 19th century, when Africans were about 5 to 10% of the population. Interbreeding occurred.

Now, let's say...
What happened if...
Scenario A) ... so many slaves were brought into Portugal from Africa in the 15th century, that people of African-descent in Portugal constituted about 20-30% of the population of Portugal (instead of real-life 5-10%) in the 19th century?
Scenario B) ... so many slaves were brought into Portugal from Africa in the 15th century, that people of African-descent in Portugal constituted about 50% of the population of Portugal (instead of real-life 5-10%) in the 19th century?
Scenario C) ... so many slaves were brought into Portugal from Africa in the 15th century, that people of African-descent in Portugal constituted more than 50% (about 70-80%) of the population of Portugal (instead of real-life 5-10%) in the 19th century?
Scenario D) ... so many slaves were brought into Portugal from Africa in the 15th century, that people of African-descent in Portugal constituted about 90% of the population of Portugal (instead of real-life 5-10%) in the 19th century? (I know, this is crossing the line between Realistic AH and ASB, but hey... Would Portugal turn into a European Haiti?)

Just asking.
What would the average Portuguese person look like in 2011, in any case of any of those scenarios?
What would be the future of Portugal?
Would slavery get banned in the 19th century, just like in real life, or would it remain for longer? Would there be any slave revolts? Would the Portuguese still encourage interbreeding, or would they distance themselves from the descendants of freed slaves (like in the USA) ?
I think that in any case, it would turn out to be an interesting story.

miguelrj · Sep 1, 2011

I assume you're talking about Metropolitan Portugal where slavery was actually banned in the 18th century.
So let me go for some wild guesses. After some interbreeding I'd say:
a) Portugal would be Brazil
b & c) Portugal would be Cape Verde
d) Portugal would be Angola

But slaves were more useful elsewhere in the Empire, I don't see why they'd bring so many to Metropolitan Portugal anyway. Or how (if they all come in the 15th century).

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

miguelrj said:
I assume you're talking about Metropolitan Portugal where slavery was actually banned in the 18th century.

Yes, I was referring to Metropolitan Portugal.

miguelrj said:
So let me go for some wild guesses. After some interbreeding I'd say:
a) Portugal would be Brazil
b & c) Portugal would be Cape Verde
d) Portugal would be Angola

Thanks

miguelrj said:
But slaves were more useful elsewhere in the Empire, I don't see why they'd bring so many to Metropolitan Portugal anyway.

I see...

miguelrj said:
Or how (if they all come in the 15th century).

They don't necessarily have to come in the 15th century. They don't even have to be as numerous as the Native (white) Portuguese, if they manage to somehow outbreed them (which is impossible for slaves).
Or, they could just continuously bring slaves into Portugal (until slavery gets banned), and encourage mixing with them, making the population of Portugal more and more mixed, and eventually, overwhelmingly African.
Let's say that somehow, a war or plague causes a shortage of Native (white) Portuguese men, so the government must compensate for this by allowing the African males to marry Native (white) Portuguese women.
Or let's say that something causes a shortage of Native (white) Portuguese women, so the government must compensate for this by allowing the Native (white) Portuguese men to marry African women.

Either way, it could happen multiple way. All we have to do is to use our imagination, and our sense, to make it look as realistic as possible.

Monty Burns · Sep 1, 2011

First, I doubt that you could reach that much higher percentages of slave-descendants. Haiti had more since it was effectively empty and the whole population had to be imported - so the elites came from Europe and bought slaves from Africa. This will not happen in metropolitan Portugal.

Nevertheless, you can have a much higher percentage of Africans in Portugal, and you could also promote intermixing. The main result IMHO would be in the relations of Portugal to its colonies. ITTL, the population of metropolitan Portugal would be much closer to that of its colonies. That could promote self government and participation there. As miguelrj said, if Portugal more or less ressembles its colonies, a true union might be possible.

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

Monty Burns said:
First, I doubt that you could reach that much higher percentages of slave-descendants. Haiti had more since it was effectively empty and the whole population had to be imported - so the elites came from Europe and bought slaves from Africa. This will not happen in metropolitan Portugal.

I see..

Monty Burns said:
Nevertheless, you can have a much higher percentage of Africans in Portugal, and you could also promote intermixing. The main result IMHO would be in the relations of Portugal to its colonies. ITTL, the population of metropolitan Portugal would be much closer to that of its colonies. That could promote self government and participation there. As miguelrj said, if Portugal more or less ressembles its colonies, a true union might be possible.

Wow... so the Portuguese Empire would remain even today?

miguelrj · Sep 1, 2011

Oops.. I knew something didn't feel right. I checked some sources and those 5-10% blacks are only valid for the southern regions (which were and are less densely populated). These were easily absorbed into the white peasentry.

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

miguelrj said:
Oops.. I knew something didn't feel right. I checked some sources and those 5-10% blacks are only valid for the southern regions (which were and are less densely populated). These were easily absorbed into the white peasentry.

Allegedly, Spain and Italy were effected too.

Haplogroup L lineages are relatively infrequent (1% or less) throughout Europe with the exception of Iberia where frequencies as high as 22% have been reported and some regions of Italy where frequencies as high as 2 to 3% have been found.
In Iberia the mean frequency of Haplogroup L lineages reaches 3.83% and the frequency is higher in Portugal (5.83%) than in Spain (2.9% average) and without parallel in the rest of Europe.

http://blog.jattdna.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/DOD-v3-Total-African2.jpg

miguelrj · Sep 1, 2011

Sang said:
Allegedly, Spain and Italy were effected too.

http://blog.jattdna.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/DOD-v3-Total-African2.jpg

By southern regions I meant southern regions of Portugal. Only Alentejo, Algarve and the islands had those much slaves.

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

miguelrj said:
By southern regions I meant southern regions of Portugal. Only Alentejo, Algarve and the islands had those much slaves.

Yes, I understand.
But, since this is Alternate History...
What if the other parts of Portugal had that much slaves as well?

Gonzaga · Sep 1, 2011

Sang said:
Yes, I understand.
But, since this is Alternate History...
What if the other parts of Portugal had that much slaves as well?

The other parts of Portugal didn't need much slaves. Africans were used in the South because the more plain lands there was occupied by huge agrarian estates owned by the nobility and the Church, where the fields were worked by non-free peasants and slaves. In the North instead much more of the land was occupied by free peasants and small farmers, that didn't need slaves to work in their fields.

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

Gonzaga said:
The other parts of Portugal didn't need much slaves. Africans were used in the South because the more plain lands there was occupied by huge agrarian estates owned by the nobility and the Church, where the fields were worked by non-free peasants and slaves. In the North instead much more of the land was occupied by free peasants and small farmers, that didn't need slaves to work in their fields.

And what if someone wrote a scenario where the demand for slaves was higher?
Kind of like the Roman transistion from Republic to Empire...
Conquests -> Slaves = A cheaper alternative to free peasants/serfs -> Poverty among peasantry -> More peasants become soldiers -> Even more conquests -> Even more slaves
It could end up like Rome, where the native population became the "warrior caste", and much of the labour work was done by slaves...

Off course, we're crossing the line between ASB and Realistic AH now, so... Let's just snap out of it, and come up with something more realistic.

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

Hey, is anyone online to contribute?

miguelrj · Sep 1, 2011

Sang said:
Hey, is anyone online to contribute?

Hmm.. Your best bet could be the suggestion you gave yourself: something drastic happens like a second bubonic plague that leaves the fields abandoned. More slaves could be brought in order to cultivate them.
I suppose the Portuguese government can even bring black people to Metropolitan Portugal to sponsor mixed marriages to repopulate it. State sponsored mixed marriages did happen in, for example, São Tomé but this is a completely new context...

I'm assuming that whatever killed off most of the Portuguese population also killed off its neighbours otherwise Portugal is doomed from the start.

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

miguelrj said:
Hmm.. Your best bet could be the suggestion you gave yourself: something drastic happens like a second bubonic plague that leaves the fields abandoned. More slaves could be brought in order to cultivate them.

While it sounds plausible, it's not necessary. You could instead have a very aggressive and expansionist Portugal, which drafts a huge amount of Native (white) Portuguese men into the army, to expand the Portuguese Empire.
It would mean that the men drafted into the army have to be replaced by Slaves in order to have the fields cultivated.
OR, it could just backfire, with many men dying, so Africans have to be brought in to compensate for that.

Either way, Slavery would be abolished sooner-or-later, or a Slave revolt would take place.

Here is a scenario of mine:
Let's say that so many slaves were brought to Portugal, that they became the 80% of the population (I know, this is crossing the line between Realistic AH and ASB), and eventually, the slaves revolted (kind of like in Haiti), the revolution succeed, and massacres would have followed. The Native (white) Portuguese population would have either fled to Spain, or accepted their fate as a minority in their own country. Soon, they would have been absorbed into the blacks entirely by mixing.
OR, if the revolution failed, Portugal would have either turned into a South Africa, with Apartheid-esque system, OR would have finally abolished slavery and encouraged mixing, eventually wiping Native (white) Portuguese population out by mixing.

miguelrj said:
I suppose the Portuguese government can even bring black people to Metropolitan Portugal to sponsor mixed marriages to repopulate it. State sponsored mixed marriages did happen in, for example, São Tomé but this is a completely new context...

Indeed. I wonder if Portugal would become racially "Africanized", how would it effect Spain and France.
I mean... How would the rest of Europe respond to a European country with a non-European (Black African) majority?

miguelrj said:
I'm assuming that whatever killed off most of the Portuguese population also killed off its neighbours otherwise Portugal is doomed from the start.

Yes indeed.

miguelrj · Sep 1, 2011

Sang said:
I mean... How would the rest of Europe respond to a European country with a non-European (Black African) majority?

If black Portugal continues to be at least a second or third rate empire, that will contribute to soften the loss of prestige the black people suffered from being enslaved en masse. That was one of the main causes of modern racism.

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

miguelrj said:
If black Portugal continues to be at least a second or third rate empire, that will contribute to soften the loss of prestige the black people suffered from being enslaved en masse. That was one of the main causes of modern racism.

It could backfire too.
Spain and France (maybe England) could simply annex Portugal, enslave the population, and repopulate it with whites.
Or, Portugal would simply end up like South Africa, with a white minority ruling over black majority, an Apartheid-esque system.
Off course, the Apartheid would ultimately lead to a revolution, which would have the same results as a successful slave revolt earlier.
Off course, the Apartheid could end in an alternate way - the government would end up commuting genocide against the blacks and compensating the loss of population by introducing immigrants from Spain, France and Italy.

miguelrj · Sep 1, 2011

Sang said:
It could backfire too.
Spain and France (maybe England) could simply annex Portugal, enslave the population, and repopulate it with whites.
Or, Portugal would simply end up like South Africa, with a white minority ruling over black majority, an Apartheid-esque system.
Off course, the Apartheid would ultimately lead to a revolution, which would have the same results as a successful slave revolt earlier.
Off course, the Apartheid could end in an alternate way - the government would end up commuting genocide against the blacks and compensating the loss of population by introducing immigrants from Spain, France and Italy.

These are the kinds of scenarios that have too many butterflies for me to keep track. But the last scenario is silly: if a black population is a problem I think a few steps could have been avoided...

Problem: we have a low population.
Solution: bring in black people.
Problem: we have too many blacks!
Solution: kill'em all!
Problem: we have a low population.
Solution: bring in white people.

Come on!!

Sang · Sep 1, 2011

miguelrj said:
Problem: we have a low population.
Solution: bring in black people.
Problem: we have too many blacks!
Solution: kill'em all!
Problem: we have a low population.
Solution: bring in white people.

Come on!!

LOL

Actually, it would go like this:

Problem: We want a great empire
Solution: Draft in a lot of men to the army!
Problem: We don't have enough men to cultivate the fields!
Solution: Bring in black slaves
Problem: Too many blacks! They want to revolt against us!
Solution: Kill'em all!
Problem: We have a low population.
Solution: Bring in white people.

Or, it could go like this:

Problem: We want a great empire
Solution: Draft in a lot of men to the army!
Problem: We don't have enough men to cultivate the fields!
Solution: Bring in black slaves
Problem: Too many blacks! They want to revolt against us!
Solution: Free them + encourage (or maybe even enforce) mixing
"Problem": There are no more whites, because they are all - including the Royal family itself! - are mixed with Blacks
"Solution": Who cares?

miguelrj · Sep 1, 2011

Mestizo royals? Did a king find a suitable Congolese princess? Nice!

Sang · Sep 2, 2011

miguelrj said:
Mestizo royals? Did a king find a suitable Congolese princess? Nice!

Not Mestizo, but Mulatto.
Mulatto = 50% White, 50% Black African
Mestizo = 50% white, 50% Native American
Castizo = 75% white, 25% Native American
Cholo = 25% white, 75% Native American
Pardo = part-White, part-Black, part-Amerindian