What would a peace of exhaustion in WWI look like? And what are good PoDs that would result in one? Post your scenarios and maps... I'll read them with great interest!
WWI stalemate
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Max Sinister
Banned
Both sides are almost exhausted, see that they can't win as the aggressor in a war with technology which is better for defending? Still hard to believe that they'd be willing to make peace. At least the CPs have made gains in Eastern Europe. That alone would be hard to accept for the western Allies.
I assume you mean mutual exhaustion, and that again means prior to the summer of 1918 when things go so much downhill for the CP that you can exclude such a situation afterwards.
A peace out of pure exhaustion would mean mostly that nobody gets much what had not been conquered. That would be the base for negotations. Other demands would just meet a: "We know you are exhausted. That is a peace of exhaustion. If you want it, come and get it. Ah, well, no, you are too exhausted!"
That means, Germany still has the chips in its hands. Brest-Litovsk is untouched, as the OP says..so I won't deal with the situation in the East.
France won't get Elsaß-Lothringen. If the Germans are cunning enough, they set up a plebiscite which lets them get rid of some French speaking villages but generally confirms 1871.
Italy won't get anything- status quo ante there. Serbia gets annexed or indefinitely occupied by Austria-Hungary, with the Southeastern parts annexed to Bulgaria. The Ottoman Empire gets cut down to the frontlines at that point of time, the rest becomes either British/French colonies or puppets.
The Germans will have to leave French soil before negotiations while the French army leaves the few villages they hold in A-L. Anything else would mean a situation where France has lost decisively.
The basic negotiations will run around the matter of Belgium and Luxemburg. Germany can and will bargain its control over most of these states against how much of its colonies get returned to them. Everything in the far east is lost, anyways. Neither Australia nor Japan are exhausted.
The same might count for German SW, I would advise Berlin to negotiate with Pretoria about a condominion with special rights for German settlers, German as an official language and unhindered access to continued German immigration.
Sanest thing would be that the Germans give up Belgium but incorporate Luxemburg. Let us say Germany gets back Togo and the coastal half of German East Africa. Cameroon remains French. Interior GEA becomes British.
There will be chapters about the freedom of the seas. And a promise for future naval negotiations between all major powers.
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The assessment of such a peace would be that Germany won. It achieved its initial war aim by breaking up the Russian Empire, thus ending the dreaded encirclement.
Austria-Hungary survived for now, fair enough. It may deal with Serbia and thus won a million troubles.
Britain could present itself quite well. The empire gained a few colonies.
It is more difficult for France. OK, they super-evil Germans haven't destroyed Paris and raped every French virgin. But apart from that?
Belgium exists on maps. Russia doesn't count. We only know with hindsight, but Italy would have been discontent anyways....
A peace out of pure exhaustion would mean mostly that nobody gets much what had not been conquered. That would be the base for negotations. Other demands would just meet a: "We know you are exhausted. That is a peace of exhaustion. If you want it, come and get it. Ah, well, no, you are too exhausted!"
That means, Germany still has the chips in its hands. Brest-Litovsk is untouched, as the OP says..so I won't deal with the situation in the East.
France won't get Elsaß-Lothringen. If the Germans are cunning enough, they set up a plebiscite which lets them get rid of some French speaking villages but generally confirms 1871.
Italy won't get anything- status quo ante there. Serbia gets annexed or indefinitely occupied by Austria-Hungary, with the Southeastern parts annexed to Bulgaria. The Ottoman Empire gets cut down to the frontlines at that point of time, the rest becomes either British/French colonies or puppets.
The Germans will have to leave French soil before negotiations while the French army leaves the few villages they hold in A-L. Anything else would mean a situation where France has lost decisively.
The basic negotiations will run around the matter of Belgium and Luxemburg. Germany can and will bargain its control over most of these states against how much of its colonies get returned to them. Everything in the far east is lost, anyways. Neither Australia nor Japan are exhausted.
The same might count for German SW, I would advise Berlin to negotiate with Pretoria about a condominion with special rights for German settlers, German as an official language and unhindered access to continued German immigration.
Sanest thing would be that the Germans give up Belgium but incorporate Luxemburg. Let us say Germany gets back Togo and the coastal half of German East Africa. Cameroon remains French. Interior GEA becomes British.
There will be chapters about the freedom of the seas. And a promise for future naval negotiations between all major powers.
---
The assessment of such a peace would be that Germany won. It achieved its initial war aim by breaking up the Russian Empire, thus ending the dreaded encirclement.
Austria-Hungary survived for now, fair enough. It may deal with Serbia and thus won a million troubles.
Britain could present itself quite well. The empire gained a few colonies.
It is more difficult for France. OK, they super-evil Germans haven't destroyed Paris and raped every French virgin. But apart from that?
Belgium exists on maps. Russia doesn't count. We only know with hindsight, but Italy would have been discontent anyways....
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Stalemate early 1918. Cause: no unrestriced submarine warfare keep the US out of the war. However both sides are exhausted and broke, and there is a revolutionary threat in both France and Germany.
Peace agreement:
Germany:
-German Colonial Empire dismantled
-Return to 1914 borders in the West (except German annexation of Luxemburg)
-Germany given a free hand in the Bretsk- Litovsk territories. Satellite states established, most notably Poland.
Austria- Hungary:
-Austria must evacuate troops from Romania and Serbia
-A pelbicite to be held in Bosnia on it's future (part of Serbia or A-H).
-A Czech nation established in Bohemia- Moravia
-East and West Galizia will have separate plebicites where they can decide their future (Poland, the Ukraine, Austria)
-Since the monarchy is in a state of turmoil a Conference will be held in Vienna with delegates from all parts of the monarchy as well as the main powers in Europe to determine the best way to restructure the State.
Balkans:
- Bulgaria must evacuate their troops from Serbia and Greece.
-Greece will annex the Bulgarian coast strip in the Mediterranean
-Bulgaria to be compensated by parts of southern Dobrudja
-Montenegro will have the right to decide wether they join Serbia or not
Ottoman Empire:
-Greece will annex parts of Eastern Thrace (but not all of it), as well as the islands of Imbos and Tenedos
- Britain and France will annex the Levant, Syria and most of Iraq, except the Mosul area and the Hatay area that will remain Ottoman. Britain and France promise to grant independence to the areas they conquered when they have been developed.
-The Ottoman Empire will recognize the 1878 border with Russia as their border in the Caucasus, and thus recognize the Democratic Republic of Armenia, the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan and the Democratic Republic of Georgia as independent nations.
Italy:
-Italy will be allowed to push claims on Trento and Gorizia in the upcoming Conference on the restructuring of Austria.
Peace agreement:
Germany:
-German Colonial Empire dismantled
-Return to 1914 borders in the West (except German annexation of Luxemburg)
-Germany given a free hand in the Bretsk- Litovsk territories. Satellite states established, most notably Poland.
Austria- Hungary:
-Austria must evacuate troops from Romania and Serbia
-A pelbicite to be held in Bosnia on it's future (part of Serbia or A-H).
-A Czech nation established in Bohemia- Moravia
-East and West Galizia will have separate plebicites where they can decide their future (Poland, the Ukraine, Austria)
-Since the monarchy is in a state of turmoil a Conference will be held in Vienna with delegates from all parts of the monarchy as well as the main powers in Europe to determine the best way to restructure the State.
Balkans:
- Bulgaria must evacuate their troops from Serbia and Greece.
-Greece will annex the Bulgarian coast strip in the Mediterranean
-Bulgaria to be compensated by parts of southern Dobrudja
-Montenegro will have the right to decide wether they join Serbia or not
Ottoman Empire:
-Greece will annex parts of Eastern Thrace (but not all of it), as well as the islands of Imbos and Tenedos
- Britain and France will annex the Levant, Syria and most of Iraq, except the Mosul area and the Hatay area that will remain Ottoman. Britain and France promise to grant independence to the areas they conquered when they have been developed.
-The Ottoman Empire will recognize the 1878 border with Russia as their border in the Caucasus, and thus recognize the Democratic Republic of Armenia, the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan and the Democratic Republic of Georgia as independent nations.
Italy:
-Italy will be allowed to push claims on Trento and Gorizia in the upcoming Conference on the restructuring of Austria.
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Assuming mutual agreement to end the war around the German Spring Offensive of 1918 - Germany looks more powerful but knows she is on her last legs, Americans are not going to show up for another little while, and the East is already won.
-Luxembourg is a German state, as is Alsace-Lorraine, and likely so is Belgium east of the Meuse.
-Otherwise the western borders are likely returned to status quo antebellum with France able to recover the industrial corridor necessary for heavy industry
-Italy gains nothing despite massive bloodshed and humiliation at Caporetto, a revolt will occur within her borders that will bring a dictator or other strongman to power within 24 months
-Ottoman Empire likely to keep Syria, possibly Lebanon and Iraq, otherwise their "empire" is split between UK and FRA
-Bulgaria is arguably the biggest winner on either side, maintaining the Constanta region, Western Thrace, Macedonia, and getting a huge boost in international prestige as a regional power
-Greece loses Western Thrace but is otherwise largely intact, she reorganizes and becomes determined to reclaim that and a large area of "magna graecea" in time
-Romania loses direct access to the Black Sea and endures humiliating occupation by Austria-Hungary for a year, signing away any claims to Transylvania in the process
-Russia abides the treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which is recognized by the Western Allies. New German satellites arise in Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States, and Finland while the government in Moscow endures half a decade of instability. With more troops and reserves intact the Russian Civil War is decided in favor of the Whites with German and British assistance, allowing for Russian economic development and a slower industrialization
-Serbia endure occupation by Austria-Hungary for a while
-US is left with a large mobile army but many of her troops never see combat, she helps Europe recover while making her own improvements and developments based on the fighting overseas
-Austria-Hungary is toast, she survives for about a year before internal tensions rip her apart, resulting in three survivor states - Hungary (includes Bosnia, Transylvania, and Croatia), Austria (Austria, Czechloslovakia, Gallicia, and part of Poland; likely to petition for union with Germany), and Serbia
-Luxembourg is a German state, as is Alsace-Lorraine, and likely so is Belgium east of the Meuse.
-Otherwise the western borders are likely returned to status quo antebellum with France able to recover the industrial corridor necessary for heavy industry
-Italy gains nothing despite massive bloodshed and humiliation at Caporetto, a revolt will occur within her borders that will bring a dictator or other strongman to power within 24 months
-Ottoman Empire likely to keep Syria, possibly Lebanon and Iraq, otherwise their "empire" is split between UK and FRA
-Bulgaria is arguably the biggest winner on either side, maintaining the Constanta region, Western Thrace, Macedonia, and getting a huge boost in international prestige as a regional power
-Greece loses Western Thrace but is otherwise largely intact, she reorganizes and becomes determined to reclaim that and a large area of "magna graecea" in time
-Romania loses direct access to the Black Sea and endures humiliating occupation by Austria-Hungary for a year, signing away any claims to Transylvania in the process
-Russia abides the treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which is recognized by the Western Allies. New German satellites arise in Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States, and Finland while the government in Moscow endures half a decade of instability. With more troops and reserves intact the Russian Civil War is decided in favor of the Whites with German and British assistance, allowing for Russian economic development and a slower industrialization
-Serbia endure occupation by Austria-Hungary for a while
-US is left with a large mobile army but many of her troops never see combat, she helps Europe recover while making her own improvements and developments based on the fighting overseas
-Austria-Hungary is toast, she survives for about a year before internal tensions rip her apart, resulting in three survivor states - Hungary (includes Bosnia, Transylvania, and Croatia), Austria (Austria, Czechloslovakia, Gallicia, and part of Poland; likely to petition for union with Germany), and Serbia
No way would Germany consent to this unless totally defeated. It would mean a power vacuum along her southern border, leaving her in effect with a third front to guard.
And if France (the only one whose opinion matters) has had to give up on something as cherished as Alsace-LKorraine, she isn't going to waste five seconds on the Czechs or Serbs.
The loans would have to be unsecured as most of the available collateral had been used up by 1917. Most unlikely without a DoW.
If Wilson can't get the Congress to declare war, he might push for unsecured loans instead, perhaps?
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Actually, Austria is toast, and a Czech nation was only a question of time. That nation would anyways be surrounded by Central Powers and would likely become a part of the German economic system that would be born in Central Europe anyways. (remember Germany get the Bretsk- Litovsk territory and establish friendly regimes at their eastern border).
As for Serbia, well Austria can rig the plebicite in Bosnia and thus keep the territory, they can do the same in Galizia, doesn't matter, Austria won't last a decade anyways.
Wouldn't the Germans want at least the Polish-speaking part for their puppet Polish state?
... and if all they have to do is wait...
Okay, I get it.
But in that case you're looking at a straight up CP win, most likely, not a peace of exhaustion. So you'd have to make things worse for the CPs in 1917 somehow to counterbalance.
Why would he want to? When Morgans tried to float an unsecured loan in Nov 1916, the President of the Federal Reserve Board drafted a statement cautioning investors against subscritbing. When he called at the White House, Wilson not only didn't object but even suggested that he word it more strongly.
Giysqun Wilde
Banned
Speaking of loans, will anyone be forced to assume the debts for merchant marines, despoiled land, and confiscated assets?
Agreed on all points.
Unlikely in an exhaustion peace. At most the Arlon area might get annexed or some small border areas.
I`m not so sure that the whole of Dobruja would end up in Bulgarian hands, Bulgarian war aims notwhistanding.