Japanese victory in China; what happens next?

[Fireaxe888]

Let's assume that Japan never occupies French Indochina and somehow manages to occupy China (an even more disunited Nationalist cause; a lack of German investment into the Republic; general incompetence by Chiang) and force an unconditional surrender.

What would Japan do with China? Would their puppet Republican government led by Wang Jiangwei be expanded, or would they choose to coopt local warlords into cooperating?

And finally, what will happen in the long run, assuming that Japan never attacks either European colonies or the USA? Simple economic development would mean that by the 1970s their puppet governments would be able to assert their independence and defeat Japan in an eventual war. But seeing as it will likely have nukes by this time, it could turn very ugly indeed..

[jaybird]

Oh man...depends on how it happens, I suppose? If Chiang falls, there's still Mao, and the IJA can have fun digging him out of Yan'an.

The more I think about it, actually, the less plausible it feels. China is HUGE, especially compared to Japan, and even if Chiang gave in, there's certainly going to be plenty of local generals-turned-warlords willing to give it a go. The stupid ones are going to get stomped down hard, but the smart ones are going to go to ground, wait for the bulk of the IJA to pass, and laugh gleefully as they chop up Japanese supply lines behind them. Once the Japanese get bled white eradicating the guerillas, well, here comes the Red Army, who just finished cutting their teeth on the Germans.

IMO, Japan is simply too small to take down an area as populous and as resistant as China, without taking into consideration the vested interests other powers may have.

[King Henry]

Unless the Japanese can somehow produce a puppet government with some legitimacy (which, given the nationalism of the time is rather unlikely) they just don't have the manpower to pacify China. So decades of a hellish guerrellia quagmire killing off the youth of Japan and keeping china undeveloped?

[John Farson]

It might very well ruin Japan. Imagine all the trillions of yen, all the resources, all the manpower that has to be devoted into pacifying a country of hundreds of millions of people. And they can't pull a Rape of Nanking on all of them. Imagine the Portuguese Colonial War, or the French wars in Indochina and Algeria, but 100 times worse. That's what I'm thinking.

[Shogo]

Actually occupying all of China would be impossible.

They could probably fold some more of Northern China into their puppet Manchuria, and that puppet Mongolian state they set up . . . Maybe, very big maybe, they could gank parts of Coastal China for themselves.

But the vast majority of the Chinese state could only ever be controlled if they were able to throw together a puppet government able to rule over all of China on their behalf. (Or maybe they could create a series of smaller puppets? Use the puppet government system to balkanize China?)

And they might still be able to gank Indochina but they'd be very spread out and would need to be able to rely on their puppets to not be dicks. (And they'd probably still lord over Thailand.)

[TyranicusMaximus]

The problem with setting up a series of puppet governments is that you need to ensure they don't get ideas of independence and conquering the others.

It might be less expensive than direct adminstration, but it's far from being easy to say the least.

[Sumeragi]

"Occupying" China (meaning having support of collaborators) would be a nightmare if there was no Indochina or DEI in the mix. Japan never had the resources to control China, and unless they manage to have the resources of Southeast Asia, things will be..... difficult. We'll be looking at a super Vietnam (the very fear that made Marshall ditch Chiang).

[Abgrund]

Originally Posted by jaybird

IMO, Japan is simply too small to take down an area as populous and as resistant as China...

Bizarrely, Toyotomi Hideyoshi contemplated the conquest of China in the sixteenth century. One wonders whether the problem lay with his maps or with his intellect.

[Shogo]

Smaller powers have taken over China in the past. It's not exactly an event without precedent.

Though the problem the conquerors faced was that those who conquered China very quickly found themselves being assimilated by the Chinese.

As an example . . . .

Manchu: We have defeated the Chinese!

Chinese: No, Manchu. You are the Chinese.

[Cook]

Originally Posted by Shogo

very quickly found themselves being assimilated by the Chinese.

Very quickly being over several generations.

[King Henry]

Originally Posted by Shogo

Smaller powers have taken over China in the past. It's not exactly an event without precedent.

Yes, but they almost universally adopted the trappings and (more importantly) administration of the empire, changing little more the guys at the top.

[Bob the Great]

Originally Posted by Cook

Very quickly being over several generations.

Very quickly in terms of civilization.

[Jonathan Kan]

Vietnam War, Soviet war in Afghanistan, American war in Afghanistan, and Iraq War roll into one...

[HMS Erin]

I think the only way for Japan to beat China would be massive, genocidal use of biological and/or chemical weapons. It would make Japan an international pariah, but just might pacify China.

What would be very interesting is how the Cold War dynamics play out. It's likely one or more of the superpowers will pump weapons into rebel organizations to bring down Japan. If Stalin backs Communist insurgents during the decades-long war, Japan could be driven into the Western/Capitalist block by default, and something similar to OTL could play out, where Japan is built up by American dollars to be a bulwark against Communism. The U.S.A. aligned itself with some pretty nasty fascist dictators during the Cold War, a militarist Japan as a friend wouldn't be completely ASB.

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Kan

Vietnam War, Soviet war in Afghanistan, American war in Afghanistan, and Iraq War roll into one...

This, except Japan is dealing with a bigger nation with dozens of times more people with the big bad Soviet Union looming just next door watching every last thing they do like a hawk.

And they will never be able to win against the Soviets.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Japan could possibly have established Chinese puppet governments - but to do so effectively would have meant a HUGE change in attitude.

OTL, their puppets were such travesties that they didn't even provide a veneer of legitimacy for the Japanese occupation. If they let the puppets be anything but Japanese slaves, it MIGHT have worked. As it was, no.

How you'd get them to change that attitude towards their puppets, I'm sure I don't know.

[Plumber]

Originally Posted by HMS Erin

I think the only way for Japan to beat China would be massive, genocidal use of biological and/or chemical weapons. It would make Japan an international pariah, but just might pacify China.

What would be very interesting is how the Cold War dynamics play out. It's likely one or more of the superpowers will pump weapons into rebel organizations to bring down Japan. If Stalin backs Communist insurgents during the decades-long war, Japan could be driven into the Western/Capitalist block by default, and something similar to OTL could play out, where Japan is built up by American dollars to be a bulwark against Communism. The U.S.A. aligned itself with some pretty nasty fascist dictators during the Cold War, a militarist Japan as a friend wouldn't be completely ASB.

Japan would be like Portugal. No one would support her.

[The Red]

Invade the United States, or possibly Mars, anything is possible if they have a solution to occupying China...

[M79]

China would be split into four to six parts - Manchukuo in the northeast, a Republic of China- Nanjing with a seaport but control over most of the central country, direct control along the area on the central-eastern coast, a Guanxi puppet in the South, a Greater Mongolia in the central north, and a puppet Xinjiang/Turkungkuo in the west. Japan will need to industrialize China to take full advantage of her resources amd would probably still try to get French Indochina, the Dutch East Indies, and Burma. But with China out of the fight look for several hundred thousand Japanese soldiers to be freed up and the infrastructure to be improved. Oddly enough Japan was also starting to assimilate some of her conquered populations by war's end, especially in Korea and Taiwan. Given until the modern day there might be a sizable number of people in the modern successor states who see themselves as Japanese and loyal members of the "Dragon Empire" (sounds silly but Japan had dreams to unite much of their WWII realm under the "Dragon Throne" and possibly move the capital to the mainland in the late 19th century). Japan will also be very brutal in its pacification tactics - the pen is only mightier than the sword if the works produced live to see publication, so expect a lot of direct censorship too.

[Color-Copycat]

Originally Posted by HMS Erin

I think the only way for Japan to beat China would be massive, genocidal use of biological and/or chemical weapons. It would make Japan an international pariah, but just might pacify China.

NRA forces were surprisingly well equipped against chemical warfare, with many troops being issued gas masks as part of their standard gear. However, biological warfare is another matter entirely, with its own benefits and disadvantages.

If the Japanese are seeking to occupy the entire country, that rules out the use of bubonic plague, which was one of their most potent biological agents. There would just be too much risk of infection making its way back to Japan after being spread amongst the heavily populated provinces of coastal China.

I don't remember if the Japanese had a strain of anthrax cultivated, but that might be their only choice if that's the case.