WI: The Emperors of Ethiopia stay in power?

[Zioneer]

Is there any way to keep the monarchy of Ethiopia as leaders of Ethiopia (constitutional or otherwise) to the present and prevent the Derg from seizing power?

What would such a monarchy look like, and how would it affect Ethiopia?

[RogueBeaver]

Have Haile Selassie drop dead sometime in the early '50s and have his son acceed. Ethiopia was in many ways a feudal society rather than a mid-20th century nation-state, with most of the land and wealth concentrated in a tiny aristocratic elite and little economic development worthy of the name.

[Antipater]

Like the Shah of Iran, it was Haile Selassie's efforts to "modernize" his country that undid his regime more than anything else. The "pillars" of the Ethiopian monarchy were, and always had been the support of the landed elite and the Orthodox Church. The support of the former was undermined by Land and Tax reform, while the hold on the latter on the average person was undermined by sending students abroad.

According to Odde Arne Westad's The Global Cold War,most of the intellectual disillusionment with the Monarchy came from Ethiopian students who had studied abroad in the West, especially in the US. Rather than just learning the technical skills that they had been sent to study, many also became attracted to the ideas of Marxism and the New Left. The young people Selassie's government had in many cases sent to the West on the country's dime to revitalize it became far more interested in destroying it.

To survive the 1970's, the Selassie regime would have had to one of several things differently. They could have attempted to keep the country as insular as possible, slowly introducing modern technology while doing their utmost to preserve traditional institutions and culture. Alternatively Selassie could have simply instituted a more thorough "coup-proofing" strategy for his regime. The unsucessful 1960 coup could have served as a wake-up call. He could have staffed his military only with members of his extended family, and recruited only from his own Amhara ethnic group.

As backward as some of those measures may have made the Selassie regime appear to the outside world, they would have made any attempt to depose him much more difficult.

The easiest way to keep Ethiopia a monarchy though would be to somehow to prevent the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, which triggered high gas prices and inflation, and was the proximate cause of the civil unrest that led to the formation of the Derg. Selassie probably would have died in a few more years, and his son Amha Selassie would succeed him. The monarchy would then have then developed along the lines of the Saudi or Morrocan Royal government, and be something between an absolute and constitutionalism monarchy today. If they had taken the isolationist path I outlined above they would probably be more of a cross between Saudi Arabia and the Congo under Mobutu, though far more civilized than the later and less fundamentalist than the former.

[azander12]

Originally Posted by Antipater

Like the Shah of Iran, it was Haile Selassie's efforts to "modernize" his country that undid his regime more than anything else. The "pillars" of the Ethiopian monarchy were, and always had been the support of the landed elite and the Orthodox Church. The support of the former was undermined by Land and Tax reform, while the hold on the latter on the average person was undermined by sending students abroad.

According to Odde Arne Westad's The Global Cold War,most of the intellectual disillusionment with the Monarchy came from Ethiopian students who had studied abroad in the West, especially in the US. Rather than just learning the technical skills that they had been sent to study, many also became attracted to the ideas of Marxism and the New Left. The young people Selassie's government had in many cases sent to the West on the country's dime to revitalize it became far more interested in destroying it.

To survive the 1970's, the Selassie regime would have had to one of several things differently. They could have attempted to keep the country as insular as possible, slowly introducing modern technology while doing their utmost to preserve traditional institutions and culture. Alternatively Selassie could have simply instituted a more thorough "coup-proofing" strategy for his regime. The unsucessful 1960 coup could have served as a wake-up call. He could have staffed his military only with members of his extended family, and recruited only from his own Amhara ethnic group.

As backward as some of those measures may have made the Selassie regime appear to the outside world, they would have made any attempt to depose him much more difficult.

The easiest way to keep Ethiopia a monarchy though would be to somehow to prevent the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, which triggered high gas prices and inflation, and was the proximate cause of the civil unrest that led to the formation of the Derg. Selassie probably would have died in a few more years, and his son Amha Selassie would succeed him. The monarchy would then have then developed along the lines of the Saudi or Morrocan Royal government, and be something between an absolute and constitutionalism monarchy today. If they had taken the isolationist path I outlined above they would probably be more of a cross between Saudi Arabia and the Congo under Mobutu, though far more civilized than the later and less fundamentalist than the former.

An Arab victory in the Yom Kippur War perhaps?

[yourworstnightmare]

Saving the monarchy would be hard, it was too much married to the reactionary feudal magnates, and in the same time too much eager to centralize the rule for the feudal lords to ever really like the emperor (and too many of them considered Haile Selassie an ursurper anyways).

I wonder if things could have ended differently if Yohannes Iyasu had been able to claim the throne after the end of the Italian occupation.

[Maponus]

Rastafarianism wank plz?

[Wendell]

I suspect that this also necessitates Eritrean independence after British protection ends, rather than granting the place to Ethiopia.

[The Ubbergeek]

Originally Posted by Maponus

Rastafarianism wank plz?

Not sure.

Remember, for a devout ethiopian christian like him, to be elevated to a godly rank like Rastafarians do was surely... uncomfortable.

If Rastafarianism implanted itself seriously in the nation, and grew strong... Expect one day a rising hostility of the Thewado(?) Church.

[yourworstnightmare]

Originally Posted by Maponus

Rastafarianism wank plz?

Not gonna happen. The strong religions in Ethiopia would be the same as today: The Ethiopian Church and Islam.

[Wendell]

The development of Islam in an Ethiopia which remained a monarchy and its official preference for the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church would be interesting.

[azander12]

Originally Posted by Wendell

The development of Islam in an Ethiopia which remained a monarchy and its official preference for the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church would be interesting.

It would likely become a front in any jihadist war. If the PoD does not involve the destruction of Israel, we're likely to see a stronger relationship between the two as well as with India and the USA over Islamic terrorism. Another interesting butterfly is the course of Somalia. Does it still collapse in the way it did if Barre remains a Soviet puppet?

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by azander12

It would likely become a front in any jihadist war. If the PoD does not involve the destruction of Israel, we're likely to see a stronger relationship between the two as well as with India and the USA over Islamic terrorism. Another interesting butterfly is the course of Somalia. Does it still collapse in the way it did if Barre remains a Soviet puppet?

See, I had interesting thoughts about this...

POD: Eritrea becomes independent rather than united to Ethiopia following World War II.

Ethiopia functions at first as a bit of a hermit kingdom, think a Nepal or Bhutan. However, the U.S. increasingly takes an interest in the region following the successes of pro-Soviet movements in Egypt/Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia. Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti become important strategic partners for the U.S. as a result, and the influx of U.S. aid allows for a controlled modernization of Ethiopia.

The country remains authoritarian, but its infrastructure is developed, and its military is modernized (and comes to be dominated by Habasha peoples). A low-level hot war over Ogaden reinforces the power of the monarchy, and perhaps sees the heir to the throne participating in the war effort. The pro-Soviet Somali government falls, and the Ethiopians withdraw back to their country. Following the otherwise OTL cold war, Ethiopia begins to liberalize politically, but the monarchy is popular due to internal stability, and its efforts to develop infrastructure.

Fast forward to the 2000's and Ethiopia remains relatively well off (think of Botswana), but its liberalization has brought about increasing opposition, including an Islamic community that experienced some repression in earlier decades...