Poland - superpower in 2005 challenge

Well, the title pretty much sais it all. I need ideas (or timelines) on how Poland in 2005 can be as large as Poland-Lithuanian commonwealth during its height, or even larger.

I'm looking for Poland that covers the current countries of Poland, Belorus, Ukraine, Kaliningrad and Lithuania for starters. I'll give you a bonus if it also includes the territories of Latvia, Estonia, Moldovia, Slovakia, and the (late) East Germany or everything together.

I think you'd need an EARLY POD for that

In my opinion, Poland would need to remain a world power from the Middle Ages to Modern Times and not suffer the degradation which occurred in our own timeline. Otherwise, it is hard to see how any nation could recover from what Poland faced in World War II and the Cold War.

that's why I suggested an early POD.

@ Straha

Yes, I understand that, maybe even before 1500.

@ chunkeymonkey

Or the three partitions for starters. IMHO the main opposition for a super-Poland is Russia, and to a lesser extent, Germany, when a large enough state arises there.

the mongols completely DESTROY Russia maybe as a POD?

Well, Poland-Lithuania had alot of that... What if the monarchy stayed hereditary rather than elective?

sounds likely. The whole unaniumous vote thing weakened poland by letting even ONE noble hold things up for a long time

Plus the prospective kings were forced to offer powers to nobles to get elected... Same thing that doomed the HRE...

I could see Jan III Sobieski being a good schemer and turning inwards after defeating the Turks at Vienna as a POD. If the Poles can suck up the cossacks (ie be tolerant to orthodoxy) instead of the Russians, I can see some changes coming.

A more modern idea

A Central Powers victory in WW1, Poland established as a client state with a Habsburg archduke as monarch. The question of borders with regard to Lithuania, Volhynia, White Russia and the Ukraine get settled in Poland's favour, and Austria cedes them Galicia-Cracow-Bukovina. Down the line, the foreign influence recedes, the king may be a Habsburg but he is a Polish king, and his son even more so. Foreign investment has given Poland a good infrastructure, modern industry etc. Polish firms and banks invest heavily in a Russia that eventually pulls itself together. Down the line, Polish influence in Russian industry etc will bring a good financial return as Russia expands its industrial base.

Grey Wolf

What about this PoD?

Polish king Zygmunt III Waza let his son take the throne of tsars during the Dimitriads. In OTL he refused because he was a rather orthodox catholic (conversion was required by russian nobility) and wanted the throne for himself (not for his son).

The latest realistic PoD would be the reign of Stanislaus II beginning in 1764. He was really bad in the internal and external power struggle - alienating the nobles in his country and his neighbouring countries until a civil war (1768) and the partition of Poland (1772) arrives.

Replace him with someone more competent, then Poland stays and may prosper.

A possible POD might be the Battle of Stangebro in 1598.

In 1592, King Sigismund III of Poland-Lithuania inherited the throne of Sweden from his father King John III, uniting the two crowns in one person; as King of Sweden, he opted to rule the state from Poland. His uncle, the eventual king Charles IX, was elected regent of Sweden due to Sigismund's absence, and rebelled against Sigismund. The conflict comes to a battle in Stangebro, which Sigismund loses, and he is eventually forced to renounce his claim to the Swedish crown. This leads to a rivalry between the two states, since Sigismund was primarily interested in regaining the Swedish crown, and a costly series of wars which eventually touches off a Cossack rebellion in 1648 and an ensuing invasion by Russia and Sweden in 1655; this touches off the decay of the state leading to its partition by 1795.

So, let's start the timeline; OTL notes in italics:

1598 - Sigismund defeats Charles at Stangebro, confirming his dominion over Sweden.
1609 - Without Sweden to ally with against the Polish-supported Dmitri Ivanovich, supposed son of Tsar Ivan, Muscovite tsar Vasilii Shuisky is defeated by Dmitri and taken into exile by the Polish, ending the centuries old rule of the Rurikid princes. Dmitri, however, does not take the throne, as he is revealed as an impostor; Sigismund instead offers his son Wladislaus for the throne, who the Muscovites accept with reservations. Wladislaus agrees to maintain Orthodoxy as the religion of the state, and granting the boyars certain rights.
1620 - Without troops bogged down in wars against Sweden and Muscovy, the Polish meet troops of the Ottoman Empire in the battle of Cecora in Moldavia. The Poles beat back the Turks and win the battle, claiming territory in Transylvania, Wallachia, Moldavia and Hungary for their own.
1630 - Sigismund, reluctant to participate in the Thirty Year's War, is convinced by Swedish general Gustavus Adolphus to allow a Swedish army to intervene. The Swedes perform excellently, until Gustavus is killed in 1632 at the battle of Lutzen.
1632 - Sigismund dies, leaving succession unsettled. He desired his son Wladislaus to take control of all the Polish territory as well as keep the tsardom in Muscovy, but the Muscovite boyars would not allow it. Wladislaus gives up the tsardom, with the Muscovites electing Mikhail Romanov to succeed him, in order to maintain the Commonwealth and Sweden. Romanov remains an ally of the Poles.
1633 - Wladisaus' half-brother Jan Casimir marries the daughter of Gustavus Adolphus (hero of the Swedes in the Thirty Year's War), Christina; the move maintains the connection between the Polish and Swedish crowns.
1634 - Defeat by the Imperial forces at Nordlingen convinces Wladislaus to retract his army from Germany.
1648 - The Chielmniecki uprising amongst the Cossacks is defeated; Jan Kasimir succeeds Wladislaus as king of Poland and Sweden.
1651 - The Poles defeat a Muscovite invasion intended to "free" the Cossacks from the repression of the Poles after the uprising.
1654 - Fearful of other rebellions, the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth becomes a quadripartite commonwealth, granting full status to Sweden and Ruthenia as equal partners. Charles Gustavus, cousin to Queen Christina, becomes the Grand Duke of Sweden (while Jan retains the title of King).
1668 - Jan Kasimir dies with two sons by Christina: Jan III, who becomes King of Poland, and Charles, who becomes Charles IX of Sweden.

More to come.

jolo said:

The latest realistic PoD would be the reign of Stanislaus II beginning in 1764. He was really bad in the internal and external power struggle - alienating the nobles in his country and his neighbouring countries until a civil war (1768) and the partition of Poland (1772) arrives.

Replace him with someone more competent, then Poland stays and may prosper.

Click to expand...

Why is my idea not realistic ? It won't result in a Poland in control of ALL of the Ukraine but it would get the disputed North-West. A union with Lithuania, or possession of a corridoor would give access to the sea. Galicia, Crakow and the Bukovina, as well as significant inroads into White Russia, all makes a significantly-sized state.

Grey Wolf

For it to be possible I would imagine every nearby power would have to magically disappear or have some POD happen to all of them. Get rid of, or have something terrible happen to, Russia, Austria, Germany, Sweden etc. I do not think so.

Poland was seen by many states as a historical accident. It possibly was. It had its day in the sun and was really only a prize to be fought over by more advanced or powerful states. This idea of self determination is rather modern.

I've actually been working on one of these! Here is a very preliminary TL that spans a few hundred years...basically, everything goes right for Poland (and Byzantium could also survive until today).

1444 Vladislav III of Poland, Lithuania, and Hungary (as of 1440) is victorious over the Turkish army at Varna during his Crusade against the Turks (instead of being slaughtered with his army). Over the next three years, he obliterates the Turkish Empire, which is as of this time still not all-powerful. He dies three years later than in OTL.

1447 Casimir, Grand Duke of Lithuania, becomes king after Vladislav as Casimir IV. During his reign he inherits Bohemia.

1573-1583 Maximilian Hapsburg attempts to take the throne of Poland, invading and occupying Bohemia. However, after 10 years of nearly constant warfare, Stephen Bathory defeats him in battle, and forces Maximilian to return Bohemia to Poland.

1594 After Sigismund III is elected King of Poland, and becomes King of Sweden, he not only reassures Swedes that despite the fact that he is Catholic, he will respect their Protestant beliefs, but he also makes sure his paternal uncle, Duke Charles, has a horrible hunting accident (in OTL this Duke Charles ended up rebelling and becoming King of Sweden himself).

1610 Sigismund III allows his son, Vladislav, to take the throne of the Tsars.

1632 At the death of his father, Vladislav IV becomes:

He builds a great Polish-Lithuanian-Swedish-Russian Commonwealth Navy, with two mighty bases on the Hel Peninsula, named Władysławowo and Kazamierzowo. His reforms make him an incredibly popular ruler, and he dies beloved by all of his subjects.

1648 John II Casimir, Vlasilav's half brother and cousin, is elected as king of Poland. Although he is generally disliked by the people, since he has a fondness for the "more civilized" refineries of Vienna and Versailles, he brings into Poland's sway the Kingdom of Portugal, which he inherited as a vice-king (the other vice-king apparently met with an accident). Portugal's vast empire at this time is well-protected, as later kings do not involve themselves in wars, and preserve the colonies.

1668 John II Casimir abdicates, due to his attempts to Catholicize Poland and Russia. Jan Sobieski is made King of Poland, Lithuania, Bohemia, Sweden, and Portugal, and Tsar of Russia. He spends many campaigns in the East, conquering the khanates and emirates of Central Asia.

1696 After the death of Jan Sobieski, his son, James Sobieski takes the throne without a struggle for power, because the Hapsburgs never became important enough to be the unquestioned and dominant power of Germany, and Prussia has never become a major power, since it is a fief of Poland, and East Prussia has long since been annexed to what is now being called the Confederated Empire.

***************************************************

1910: The Confederated Empire ruled by James IV is one of the world's two superpowers. The modern-day nations ruled by James IV include:

Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Yugoslavia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Portugal, Brazil, Uruguay, Guinea-Bissau, Angola, Sao Tome and Principe, Mozambique, Oman, Yemen, Sri Lanka, and Japan, as well as enclaves in India, Indonesia, and China.

Grey Wolf said:

Why is my idea not realistic ? It won't result in a Poland in control of ALL of the Ukraine but it would get the disputed North-West. A union with Lithuania, or possession of a corridoor would give access to the sea. Galicia, Crakow and the Bukovina, as well as significant inroads into White Russia, all makes a significantly-sized state.

Click to expand...

I see this Poland as weakened by a lot of factors - two very strong neighbours who want some territory back they lost before is the most important one. Even a really big economic miracle and some lucky constellations in a few wars and civil wars wouldn't have made Poland strong enough to expand succesfully, much less to become a major power.

jolo said:

I see this Poland as weakened by a lot of factors - two very strong neighbours who want some territory back they lost before is the most important one. Even a really big economic miracle and some lucky constellations in a few wars and civil wars wouldn't have made Poland strong enough to expand succesfully, much less to become a major power.

Click to expand...

For every reaction there is a counter-action; for a rise to pre-eminence there is the likelihood of fall. Germany, victorious and prosperous will have to tackle the same problems that Britain did - homes for heroes, votes for everyone, meaningful reform etc. Although the victory wouldf give the Fatherland parties and alliance a boost, it would lead to an eventual swing back for support for the SPD - these people now coming back from the war are heroes, treat them right. Give them rights etc

As for Russia, if events conspire to set it back on its feet with Polish aid, then the relationship is turned around or at least equalised.

Grey Wolf
getting fed up of the negativity around here...

Grey Wolf said:

For every reaction there is a counter-action; for a rise to pre-eminence there is the likelihood of fall. Germany, victorious and prosperous will have to tackle the same problems that Britain did - homes for heroes, votes for everyone, meaningful reform etc. Although the victory wouldf give the Fatherland parties and alliance a boost, it would lead to an eventual swing back for support for the SPD - these people now coming back from the war are heroes, treat them right. Give them rights etc

As for Russia, if events conspire to set it back on its feet with Polish aid, then the relationship is turned around or at least equalised.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure about what you are up to - it sounds like Poland becoming strong due to Russia becoming weaker - kind of in the shadow of Germany. That would be unlikely to turn Poland into a super power comparable to the US.

The US needed about 150 years of constant astonishing growth and two large scale wars in which the other powers destroyed each other, to achieve that. GB needed about 250 years from humble origins in the 15th century to become the world's leading power on a stable footing.

I don't want to sound negative - but I can't see that status for Poland after WWI for a long time - Poland was big then, but internally weak and surrounded by stronger other countries.

A Slavic federation in those territories might be more promising - like a union of Poland and Czechoslowakia, later joined by the Baltics, Hungary and more. Might even become strong enough to force Stalin to free the Ukraine. But that wouldn't be Poland.