WI Ottoman-Russian Alliance

The Treaty of Unkiar Skelessi was signed in 1833 between Russia and the Ottoman Empire. The treaty was part of a rapprochement between the two nations and basically stated they would support each other if attacked by a foreign power. France and England, being suspicious of this treaty held the London Straits Convention, which more or less made the Treaty of Unkiar Skelessi useless and killed the rapprochement between the two nations.

A few years later that would lead to the Crimean War, where Russia was promptly owned.

The POD here is Britain and France give greater backing to Egypt in the Ottoman-Egypt War and Russia gives more support to the Ottomans. This leads to worse relations with the western nations. The Treaty of Unkiar Skelessi is signed as usual. Later the London Straits Convention happens but the Ottoman Empire and Russia both reject the terms. Russia because of obvious reasons and the Ottoman Empire because they see it as infringing on their rights, and because of resentment in the Egypt war.

A few years later, armed with a butterfly net, Emperor Napoleon III attempts to intimidate the Ottomans by sending a naval task force to the Black Sea, as in OTL. The difference here is that the Ottomans refuse to back down. Russia secretly reaffirms their support of the Ottomans as per their treaty.

Now things can go a few ways here. Two interesting possibilities. The French task force retreats after a tense stand off and Russia and the Ottomans pat themselves on the back. Or the other option, France and Britain eager to put the two eastern empires 'in their place' dont back down. The Ottomans call their bluff, tensions are flared, shots are fired and this scenario's version of the Crimean War begins. Russia and the Ottomans (plus allies?) VS France and Britain (plus allies).

Thoughts or comments? What happens next?
 
I could see France supporting Muhammad Ali and Egypt in the conflict with the Ottomans over Syria, as they were quite close to Egypt and Louis-Philippe's government had ties to them... but I really can't see Britain doing it, as they were much more friendly to the Turks. Britain in the period was all about maintaining the balance of power; things with France was actually pretty tense, so I think a more likely outcome would be an alliance of Britain, the Ottomans, and Russia against an aggressive France, rather than Britain and France ganging up on Turkey. Britain didn't have an aggressive foreign policy and it'd really make no sense for them to get into a war with the Ottomans. Sure, they were suspicious of the treaty Russian straits treaty, but the balance of power was more important to them. You wouldn't see any *Crimean War with Britain allied with France against Turkey and Russia. If anything, Britain would jump in defend Turkey against French aggression. I could totally see Napoleon III being hyper-aggressive in this scenario and provoking a conflict that sees Britain and Russia allied with the Turks. Lord knows Russia would get brownie points from Britain for standing up for the Turks.

Napoleon III's regime isn't going to last very long in such a scenario, though. It'd probably collapse after a poor performance in the war and we'd probably see the senior Bourbon line restored, as the conservatives were pretty important in the period after 1848 and the Second Republic. They supported Napoleon as Prince-President as he'd put an end to the rabble. Another interesting idea is another Prince-President... I know one of the Orléanist Princes considered running in 1848, but didn't. So I think we could see the Bourbons restored. An interesting scenario, but I don't think it'd play out the way you'd want it too. It goes against everything Britain stood for. But I could see Napoleon III being bumbling enough to go at it alone.
 
I could see France supporting Muhammad Ali and Egypt in the conflict with the Ottomans over Syria, as they were quite close to Egypt and Louis-Philippe's government had ties to them... but I really can't see Britain doing it, as they were much more friendly to the Turks. Britain in the period was all about maintaining the balance of power; things with France was actually pretty tense, so I think a more likely outcome would be an alliance of Britain, the Ottomans, and Russia against an aggressive France, rather than Britain and France ganging up on Turkey. Britain didn't have an aggressive foreign policy and it'd really make no sense for them to get into a war with the Ottomans. Sure, they were suspicious of the treaty Russian straits treaty, but the balance of power was more important to them. You wouldn't see any *Crimean War with Britain allied with France against Turkey and Russia. If anything, Britain would jump in defend Turkey against French aggression. I could totally see Napoleon III being hyper-aggressive in this scenario and provoking a conflict that sees Britain and Russia allied with the Turks. Lord knows Russia would get brownie points from Britain for standing up for the Turks.

Napoleon III's regime isn't going to last very long in such a scenario, though. It'd probably collapse after a poor performance in the war and we'd probably see the senior Bourbon line restored, as the conservatives were pretty important in the period after 1848 and the Second Republic. They supported Napoleon as Prince-President as he'd put an end to the rabble. Another interesting idea is another Prince-President... I know one of the Orléanist Princes considered running in 1848, but didn't. So I think we could see the Bourbons restored. An interesting scenario, but I don't think it'd play out the way you'd want it too. It goes against everything Britain stood for. But I could see Napoleon III being bumbling enough to go at it alone.
Ah your right, maybe i did make Britain a little OOC in my rush to try and create better Russian-Ottoman relations. :eek:
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
If you can provide Britain with a suitable distraction (foreign policy crisis with USA goes hot?) then France's support for Muhammed Ali of the many spellings would not see matching political pressure on France from Britain. Austria is not going to act navally without the British, and Egypt could attain its goals, or at least be sustained at their existing level.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Top