WI: LBJ Runs in '68?

[Wolfpaw]

I know that this is borderline ASB, but what if LBJ decided to run for another term in the 1968 election?

His control over the party machinery makes me think he'd scoop up the nomination again, but Bobby might make things tough, especially if he isn't killed.

Would Nixon still get the GOP nod?

Awful lot of butterflies here...

[JoeMulk]

Ive actually toyed around with this idea before. I think that the obvious POD would be to take Bobby out of the running and have it just be Eugene McCarthy. The violence at the convention is even worse and because it's LBJ himself running McCarthy announces a third party anti-war candidacy. It's a four way race and Wallace takes more votes away from LBJ then from Humphrey OTL since he has an incumbent to attack, Nixon probably gets the same electoral vote margin as OTL but a heavy plurality. McCarthy attracts many anti-war voters to the polls who OTL stayed home.

I guess that in a way it's like a repeat of 1948 since the Democrats are divided in three only ITTL Johnson doesn't pull off an upset victory.

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by Wolfpaw

I know that this is borderline ASB, but what if LBJ decided to run for another term in the 1968 election?

His control over the party machinery makes me think he'd scoop up the nomination again, but Bobby might make things tough, especially if he isn't killed.

Would Nixon still get the GOP nod?

Awful lot of butterflies here...

When is this decision made? Are we talking about when he considered reentering in July after talking with Hizzonor but nixed the idea after he polled worse in the South than Hubert? Earlier? No matter what, he still gets the nomination (remember, 75% of the delegates are machine-controlled) and loses to Nixon.

[Matt Wiser]

If he runs, he may not even get the nomination. And if he does get the nomination (assuming RFK stays out), it sets up LBJ v. Nixon. With Wallace, and maybe even McCarthy as mentioned previously. Nixon still wins.

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by Matt Wiser

If he runs, he may not even get the nomination. And if he does get the nomination (assuming RFK stays out), it sets up LBJ v. Nixon. With Wallace, and maybe even McCarthy as mentioned previously. Nixon still wins.

He will get the nomination. As I mentioned, 75% of the delegates were machine-controlled, so the nomination is his.

[ASRI]

Yeah, there's no way LBJ doesn't get the nomination if he wants it. Not that makes much of a difference to the general election outcome; Nixon should win fairly comfortably.

[galveston bay]

just is likely is that he dies during the campaign... he had pretty serious heart disease and passed away in 1973 because of it. The stress of a campaign very well could kill him much sooner.

[Noravea]

Um, didn't he run in the Primaries but lose horribly?

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by Noravea

Um, didn't he run in the Primaries but lose horribly?

He ran in New Hampshire and "won" by only a few hundred votes before getting curbstomped in Wisconsin after he withdrew.

[Claudius]

He won in New Hampshire against McCarthy ,but not by much. RFK then jumped in, and LBJ saw the handwriting on the wall and dropped out. The POD would have to be LBJ curbstomping McCarthy in NH. After that, RFK would probably sit 1968 out, so that he could run against Nixon in '72.

[V-J]

Originally Posted by Noravea

Um, didn't he run in the Primaries but lose horribly?

This is pre-McGovern-Fraser days. Primaries are useful, but not essential. In '68, the parties still select their nominees at the convention.

[Paul V McNutt]

He would lose in the general election. His presence would inspire a left wing fourth party.

[jkay]

I think LBJ'd be likely to pull off a small win in November. He'd be the incumbent, and had lots of Big Society and Civil Rights patronage. He would've taken away Nixon's war advantage by making people rightly doubt his "secret plan" as a lie.

I also think he'd win even a four-way race. After all, Wallace and Nixon were competing for the racist vote. And McCarthy, when he ran, managed to pull off a less than vast 1%.

And, sadly, he was as long on dirty tricks as Nixon.

And Nixon had more than his own share of problems.

Of course, I might be biased; my wife used to vote in LBJ's old House district.

[hcallega]

Originally Posted by jkay

I think LBJ'd be likely to pull off a small win in November. He'd be the incumbent, and had lots of Big Society and Civil Rights patronage. He would've taken away Nixon's war advantage by making people rightly doubt his "secret plan" as a lie.

I also think he'd win even a four-way race. After all, Wallace and Nixon were competing for the racist vote. And McCarthy, when he ran, managed to pull off a less than vast 1%.

And, sadly, he was as long on dirty tricks as Nixon.

And Nixon had more than his own share of problems.

Of course, I might be biased; my wife used to vote in LBJ's old House district.

LBJ wouldn't win. The stain of war would have hurt him too much.

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by hcallega

LBJ wouldn't win. The stain of war would have hurt him too much.

I'm always surprised how little attention the economy got in '68 with rampant inflation and deficits. I guess in those days Cheney's "Deficits Don't Matter!" mantra prevailed.

[Duke 4]

This is a tough one. I think RB is right he would have got the nomination. Bobby would not have stopped him any more than he could have stopped HHH. The rules of a convention were just so different than. The election is a close one. I think LBJ woud have won it though. I believe he woud have pulled off some type of October suprise to say he is ending the war. Plus I really think he might have worked on Wallace a bit . I can still see southern pride in voting for him. The question how much support does RFK give him? i assume the death of RFK is butterflied. RKK hated LBJ that was the greatest political feud of the 20ty century. LBJ hated him. But I think they both disliked Nixon more. HHH lost a very close race and he had no money and was not the Man LBJ was in running an election. Since LBJ wins . So Is there a McGovern Fraser commission to reform the party? That is a very important development that came out of Chicago. I don't think LBJ allows that debacle to happen in Chicago like HHH did. So in 72 you have HHH vs RFK for the Dems. In the GOP you have Reagan vs Rockfeller? in the GOP? RFK vs. Reagan in the finals. 12 years of Democrats in charge. I would think Ronnie might pull it off. If not then the Party of Lincoln had one President, Ike from 32 to 76. There could be major changes in that party. So did Nixon save the GOP in 68?

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by Duke 4

This is a tough one. I think RB is right he would have got the nomination. Bobby would not have stopped him any more than he could have stopped HHH. The rules of a convention were just so different than. The election is a close one. I think LBJ woud have won it though. I believe he woud have pulled off some type of October suprise to say he is ending the war. Plus I really think he might have worked on Wallace a bit . I can still see southern pride in voting for him. The question how much support does RFK give him? i assume the death of RFK is butterflied. RKK hated LBJ that was the greatest political feud of the 20ty century. LBJ hated him. But I think they both disliked Nixon more. HHH lost a very close race and he had no money and was not the Man LBJ was in running an election. Since LBJ wins . So Is there a McGovern Fraser commission to reform the party? That is a very important development that came out of Chicago. I don't think LBJ allows that debacle to happen in Chicago like HHH did. So in 72 you have HHH vs RFK for the Dems. In the GOP you have Reagan vs Rockfeller? in the GOP? RFK vs. Reagan in the finals. 12 years of Democrats in charge. I would think Ronnie might pull it off. If not then the Party of Lincoln had one President, Ike from 32 to 76. There could be major changes in that party. So did Nixon save the GOP in 68?

If LBJ loses then RFK takes over the party almost immediately just like Clinton and the DLC did after 1988. They both hated each other much more than Nixon, though all 3 had professional respect for each other politically. Difference was Nixon and RFK always had a civil relationship, which was most definitely not the case with LBJ.

[bguy]

Originally Posted by RogueBeaver

I'm always surprised how little attention the economy got in '68 with rampant inflation and deficits. I guess in those days Cheney's "Deficits Don't Matter!" mantra prevailed.

Didn't the US government actually run a budget surplus in FY '69 (which started in July 1968)? Not sure how Nixon could really campaign on the deficit, since Johnson had successfully closed the massive FY '68 deficit with his tax surcharge. IIRC Nixon criticized the surcharge and promise to repeal it as part of his campaign. (A promise he only partly kept once in office.) Nixon criticizing the surcharge might explain why he couldn't capitalize on the inflation issue, since I believe Johnson billed the tax surcharge in large part as an anti-inflation measure, and Nixon would look pretty ridiculous campaigning against inflation while pushing inflationary policies.

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/...ate=US#usgs302

Says the FY '69 budget ran a 3.2 billion dollar surplus.

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by bguy

Didn't the US government actually run a budget surplus in FY '69 (which started in July 1968)? Not sure how Nixon could really campaign on the deficit, since Johnson had successfully closed the massive FY '68 deficit with his tax surcharge. IIRC Nixon criticized the surcharge and promise to repeal it as part of his campaign. (A promise he only partly kept once in office.) Nixon criticizing the surcharge might explain why he couldn't capitalize on the inflation issue, since I believe Johnson billed the tax surcharge in large part as an anti-inflation measure, and Nixon would look pretty ridiculous campaigning against inflation while pushing inflationary policies.

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/...ate=US#usgs302

Says the FY '69 budget ran a 3.2 billion dollar surplus.

Oops, vaguely remember that.


Duke: In '72 it depends. After 12 years of Democratic rule (and 32 of the previous 40 years), Kennedy might decide to sit '72 out and let HHH take the fall against Reagan. After 8 years of Reagan, the pendulum swings around again and Kennedy's POTUS during the '80s.

[Thande]

If LBJ can pull off a win in '68 it has interesting consequences for the space programme.