What If The Red Army Captures Warsaw in 1920?

[Alex1guy]

Chilling, but as they say, all is fair in love and war. Look forward to the next update.

[Adler17]

If that would be true, there can't be any war crimes.

Adler

[LOTLOF]

Originally Posted by Adler17

If that would be true, there can't be any war crimes.

Adler

You know it's a funny thing. People question Truman's decision to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Yet no one ever thinks to question the morality of dropping napalm and fire bombs on Tokyo. Prior to World War One the laws of blockade stated that you could only confiscate listed contraband such as weapons or explosives. Civilian goods and food were not subject to confiscation. The British unilaterally decided that they needed to starve the Germans so suddenly food was contraband. Do you think anyone on the Allied side questioned the morality of that? In Atlanta just mention old Billy Sherman and see what reaction you get.

What is or is not a war crime is subject to interpretation.

It also depends on whether or not you are on the winning side.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by LOTLOF

What is or is not a war crime is subject to interpretation.

It also depends on whether or not you are on the winning side.

Yep, especially this.

[LOTLOF]

October 25, 1920

Under supervision of the League of Nations an election took place amid the Polish refugee camps in the Rhineland. With a majority of well over ninety percent the twenty six year old General Józef Beck was elected Prime Minster of the Polish government in exile. To the Poles he was a heroic figure who had fought with Piłsudski at the battle of Warsaw and then insisted on continuing the struggle despite their defeat. In a time when all seemed lost people clung to the idea that he could somehow save them. He became a national hero as much from need as anything he had actually done.

To the outside world very little was known of him. He had met quietly with the German President Ebert who had sounded him out about possible ‘border adjustments.’ Ebert had found him reasonable and someone who could be negotiated with.

Upon his election he received congratulations from many national leaders who supported the cause of Polish liberation. Along with these kind sentiments he also received an invitation to come to Paris and meet with the French Prime Minister Briand.

It was an invitation Beck was eager to accept.

October 26, 1920

In the city of Genoa there was a massive rally by the Partito Socialista Italiano, the PSI, in support of the Soviet Union, the Soviet Socialist Republic of Poland, and the Socialist Republic of Bavaria. It was also a protest against the atrocity committed by the British in Saint Petersburg. The marchers carried not only party flags and banners but many red flags as well. The marchers shouted ‘Inglesi fouri!’ as they went.

There was a sense of rage among them.

Much of this anger came the sense that Italy had been used by the West and then cheated of the rewards promised. There was anger from the soldiers who could not find work and from the poor who could not afford coal. There was anger against a government that did not seem to care what happened to them. There was anger that after all their sacrifices everything was getting worse.

The events in the Baltic provided a sudden focus and as the people marched chanting their frustration and rage only seemed to mount.

When they came upon a line of policemen trying to bar their way they were met with abusive shouts and then with rocks being thrown. At that point the police drew their weapons and ordered the crowd to disperse. This incited the crowd and the situation worsened.

Then either from an order or out of panic (the facts remained unclear as each side insisted on its own account) several shots were fired. There were screams from those shot, but rather than frightening the throng it had the opposite effect as the crowd surged forward and violently attacked the police. Several were beaten and knifed to death while the rest were forced to run.

This was to touch off the Genoa riots.

For five days people ran wild in the streets. Shops were broken into and looted as were many homes of the wealthy. The police were powerless and many refused to even wear their uniforms in public for fear of being attacked on sight. Red flags were raised over many public buildings and could be seen throughout working class neighborhoods. Many believed this was the start of a new revolution.

Order was eventually restored only when army troops were ordered into the city. Faced with armed soldiers the crowds choose to retreat back into their homes and a very tense peace returned.

The events however led many to question the strength of the government in Rome.

Shortly after the PSI split apart with the extremists forming the Partito Comunista Italiano, PCI under the leadership of Amadeo Bordiga. The new party openly declared that they favored violent revolution as the only method of solving Italy’s political ills.

XXX

Lenin read a report on the situation in Petrograd.

All those who wanted to leave the city were encouraged to do so. They would have to find their own means of transport though. Given the state of the roads and railways a mass exodus of the homeless was impossible. Those who remained were being housed in any building that was still standing; empty warehouses, churches, factories, and such. Any apartment or home with three people or less residing in it was forced to accommodate some of the refugees.

The city would be even more overcrowded than it had been. What was worse was that many of the food stores had gone up in flames as had a number of hospitals. Winter was coming and the temperatures were already started to drop. Along with starvation given these conditions there were also certain to be many deaths from diseases like typhoid. The estimate was that they could expect fifty thousand to not survive until spring.

Lenin read the report and set it aside. It was a shame but there was nothing to be done.

[LOTLOF]

October 27, 1920

The first pictures of the ruins of Saint Petersburg began to appear both in Europe and across the Atlantic. In some countries such as Hungary and Finland the images were deliberately kept out of the public view. In Germany the images were seen in a positive light, the general thought being the Russians were only reaping what they sowed.

In Italy and in France they produced protests and condemnation and calls for support for the Soviets. Especially in Italy where the Genoa riots were still going on certain extremists called for equal violence against the capitalists powers. In France the protests were massive, but peaceful, there was talk of forming an armed wing of the SFIO. Party leader Fernand Loriot spoke of the need for the workers and common people to be able to defend their liberty from those who would oppress them. The possibility of organizing general strikes was also brought up.

Calls by Prime Minister Briand for calm and cooperation by all parties were generally ignored.

In Britain the majority opinion was that the shelling had been justified and the end results, while unfortunate, were an extension of the conflict the Bolsheviks had begun. There was however a growing minority who condemned the attack. The Manchester Guardian published a famous picture showing a grandmother and twos small children walking amid some of the ruins underneath the single word headline ‘SHAME!’ Dock and rail workers began refusing to handle military supplies. MPs of the Labour Party were openly critical not only of the attack but of the blockade and of policies in Ireland, Turkey, and India. Even worse for the Prime Minister a few members of his own Liberal Party were also on record criticizing him.

With the bulk of his party and conservative allies still strongly supporting him David Lloyd George’s coalition government remained firmly in power. It was clear though that crack were developing.

Across the sea the Boston Globe ran an image of square miles of nothing but empty ruins and a handful of gutted buildings. The headline ran, ‘The Flames of Saint Petersburg.’ The editorial was written by Charles H Taylor and it deliberately compared the actions of the British to those of the Germans in burning down Leuven, Belgium at the start of the great war.

‘When the Germans burned the library of Leuven they claimed the action was a military necessity and that war knew only the law of necessity. World opinion rightly condemned their actions as barbaric. Even in times of war we expect soldiers to follow certain practices that mark them as more civilized than the savages of Africa or the hordes of Asia. When the war was over there was talk of war crimes and of a tribunal to judge those responsible.

Now an even greater city has been set to the torch. Once again we hear empty words of military necessity. Only now the words are spoken with a British accent rather than in guttural German. Are we really to believe that what was done was any less barbaric simply because those guilty speak the same language that we do and share a common history? Were the Flames of Leuven a war crime but those of Saint Petersburg not? If you dismiss the accents it seems very hard to tell the one from the other.’

With the election less than a week away the Republican candidate Harding commented. “I suppose it’s a good thing the British aren’t technically at war with the Russians. You can’t really commit a war crime without a war.”

The statement would receive much notice throughout the United States and also in Britain where it was seen as a serious insult. The Prime Minister made a point to ignore it, though in private he was incensed.

Considering that Harding was counting on support from the Irish American minority many were uncertain whether the words were an honest opinion or a deliberate effort to please the Irish voters.

[CoomerREC7]

Could the butterflies hit Harding? So if Harding doesn't get the Republican nomination, who does?

[zeppelin247]

well I think any kind of anti british resentment in Germany is going to be almost non existent now but Britain elsewhere will be looked upon very negatively

[LOTLOF]

Originally Posted by CoomerREC7

Could the butterflies hit Harding? So if Harding doesn't get the Republican nomination, who does?

The election is on November second.

[stevep]

LOTLOF

Well that makes any naval treaties less likely. This sort of outburst by the US President [probable] will make any agreement with him less welcome.

While Soviet supporters will seek to make propaganda out of the fires would more respectable sources such as the Guardian go as far? After all, technically far worse was done in the previous war, as I pointed out. The gunfire wasn't indiscriminate, it was the incompetence and corruption of the Bolshevik leadership in St Petersburg that made the attack such a disaster for them.

If Harding is playing to the Irish extremist element in the US could that trigger a stronger reaction in Britain against the nationalist/imperialist elements in Ireland. [Or possibly the apparent strength of the British reaction could persuade the more moderate element to come to terms earlier and shorten that conflict by not pushing for annexation of the north?]

One other possibility to consider. Given that the Soviets are being seen as markedly more aggressive and dangerous I suspect that Britain at least will be a lot less hostile to continued Japanese support of anti-Bolshevik forces in Siberia so that could continue markedly longer. In fact with the hostility from the US you might see the renewal of the Anglo-Japanese alliance.

Actually, the situation could led to a better position for Wrangle's White army. With the Soviets distracted by the crisis in Poland/Germany and the western powers markedly more concerned about the Soviet threat, possibly leading to more support being available they might be able to at least hold on longer.

Steve

[LOTLOF]

Originally Posted by stevep

LOTLOF


While Soviet supporters will seek to make propaganda out of the fires would more respectable sources such as the Guardian go as far? After all, technically far worse was done in the previous war, as I pointed out. The gunfire wasn't indiscriminate, it was the incompetence and corruption of the Bolshevik leadership in St Petersburg that made the attack such a disaster for them.

If Harding is playing to the Irish extremist element in the US could that trigger a stronger reaction in Britain against the nationalist/imperialist elements in Ireland. [Or possibly the apparent strength of the British reaction could persuade the more moderate element to come to terms earlier and shorten that conflict by not pushing for annexation of the north?]

One other possibility to consider. Given that the Soviets are being seen as markedly more aggressive and dangerous I suspect that Britain at least will be a lot less hostile to continued Japanese support of anti-Bolshevik forces in Siberia so that could continue markedly longer. In fact with the hostility from the US you might see the renewal of the Anglo-Japanese alliance.

Actually, the situation could led to a better position for Wrangle's White army. With the Soviets distracted by the crisis in Poland/Germany and the western powers markedly more concerned about the Soviet threat, possibly leading to more support being available they might be able to at least hold on longer.

Steve

The Japanese will have a role to play later on, and the renewal of the Anglo-Japanese alliance will be an important issue.

[CoomerREC7]

Originally Posted by LOTLOF

The Japanese will have a role to play later on, and the renewal of the Anglo-Japanese alliance will be an important issue.

Will Japan be threatening intervention in Siberia, possibly taking some turf from the Soviets?

[stevep]

Originally Posted by CoomerREC7

Will Japan be threatening intervention in Siberia, possibly taking some turf from the Soviets?

CoomerREC7

At this point they were already there. Officially in support of the 'whites' but very much in their own interests.

Steve

[LOTLOF]

Originally Posted by CoomerREC7

Will Japan be threatening intervention in Siberia, possibly taking some turf from the Soviets?

Given their past actions it's very likely; so long as they have British support. Politics and military strength go hand in hand in this scenario. Given their experiences in the Russo Japanese War and in China and the Great War they want to make sure what they will be able to gain BEFORE they shed their blood. The US is highly suspicious of them as are the Australians and New Zealanders and even the British don't trust them completely.

But they are the only ones in a position to intervene effectively in the Far East.

If the Devil has what you want, you must bargain with him.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by LOTLOF

Given their past actions it's very likely; so long as they have British support. Politics and military strength go hand in hand in this scenario. Given their experiences in the Russo Japanese War and in China and the Great War they want to make sure what they will be able to gain BEFORE they shed their blood. The US is highly suspicious of them as are the Australians and New Zealanders and even the British don't trust them completely.

But they are the only ones in a position to intervene effectively in the Far East.

If the Devil has what you want, you must bargain with him.

LOTLOF

The other advantage for Britain from this, apart from further weakening the Soviets, is that it diverts Japanese attention northwards towards Siberia. If their bogged down there they won't have the resources spare to seriously threaten to complete their naval programme. Which does leave the problem of the US programme and the danger of a treaty resulting.

Steve

[CoomerREC7]

Originally Posted by stevep

CoomerREC7

At this point they were already there. Officially in support of the 'whites' but very much in their own interests.

Steve

Really? I thought that Japan intervened later in 1922.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by CoomerREC7

Really? I thought that Japan intervened later in 1922.

CoomerREC7

Japanese forces, along with other allied units, went in in late 1918. After the defeat of Admiral Kolchak's whites, along with the general collapse of the white forces interest waned amongst the other allies and the US especially but also Britain and other powers viewed the intervention as for Japanese imperial aims and became less than supportive. The Japanese withdrew in 1922, a couple of years after other powers had left.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_Intervention for a brief introduction.

Steve

[LOTLOF]

October 28, 1920

The Irish Republican Army launches a raid on the barracks of the Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC) at Dunlavin. Nine RIC policemen are killed and fifteen more wounded. The barracks are burned down. Throughout Ireland there are other sporadic attacks against RIC members and British officials resulting in an additional eleven deaths.

The Irish Dáil (Parliament) releases a statement that this is the beginning of a new campaign to liberate their homeland from British rule. They also call upon the government in London to recognize them as the representatives of the Irish people and commence negotiations for a British withdrawal.

The British government releases a statement that the Dáil and the Irish Republican Army have no legal justification for any of their claims and are terrorist organizations. The government promises to continue to oppose these criminal actions and uphold the rule of law.

XXX

In Paris Józef Beck meets in private with French Prime Minister Aristide Briand.

XXX

General Josef Stalin at last arrives in the Soviet encampment about a hundred kilometers west of the city of Chita and formally takes command of Soviet Union’s Far Eastern theater of operations. He is east of Lake Baikal, west of Machuria, and north of Mongolia; in other words in the very heart of that vast emptiness known as Siberia.

He’d had some hopes of mounting a campaign to drive out the Whites and possibly even liberating Vladivostok. He soon realizes there is no chance for any sort of offensive. The thirty thousand Japanese who occupy Chita are better equipped and supplied than the hundred thousand men in his army. The Baikal Army is low on munitions and supplies, by necessity they are forced to draw food from the few villages and farms in this desolate land. Even commandeering all that they can the soldiers are on short rations and hungry. Morale is nonexistent and Stalin suspects his soldiers are close to mutiny.

All war material being produced west of the Urals is going directly to Poland. There is nothing to spare for troops so far away.

Stalin sets out to restore as much discipline as he can and to ride out the situation. He believes that he will eventually be recalled to a more active front. For a general military victories equaled political power and his goal is to rise further.

[LOTLOF]

October 29, 1920

In the city of Walcz in western Poland a group of Polish partisans, well armed with German rifles and munitions, attacked the local garrison. The entire garrison of eighty men are killed, most of them after having surrendered.

Two days later a battalion of Soviet infantry arrive and close off the city. A thousand adult males are selected at random, dragged out of their homes and gathered in the city square. The Russians hang as many as they can from every lamp post. The rest are bayoneted to death and their bodies left in the streets and sidewalks.

The massacre is in no way unique. The death tolls are higher, but similar scenes are being played out throughout occupied Poland. A bloody cycle of violence and revenge.

The news of the Walcz massacre will be slow making it out of Poland and will be lost amid the flood of similar stories. Unlike the events in Saint Petersburg no pictures will appear in the various national papers and world opinion will not be outraged by the atrocity.

October 30, 1920

Gustav Stresemann had returned to Paris following the meeting with President Ebert in Berlin. He had expected to continue with the frustrating and thankless task of trying to negotiate with the French government. The French appeared to have only one notion in mind; and that was to enforce all the terms of the Versailles Treaty. They refused to acknowledge the fundamental change to the stability and security of Europe that the communists represented. Russia fallen, Poland fallen, Bavaria in revolt, and yet the French could talk only about their own security and about Germany’s obligations.

The French were growing more and more obstinant and were demanding Germany stop rearming. They insisted that Germany was blatantly remilitarizing for the sole purpose of again attacking France and Belgium. As if a Russian army on German soil weren’t a valid reason!

The British Foreign Secretary Curzon attended these meetings but was of no real assistance. Prime Minister Lloyd George had been quite serious about keeping the arrangement made between them a strict secret. In the meetings he tended to keep a middle course. At once acknowledging French concerns over security and their right to expect the treaty obligations to be met, but also pointing out that the events in Poland and elsewhere had altered the situation. He more or less remained neutral and refused to make any firm declarations.

For Stresemann this was especially frustrating because the French assumed from this that the British firmly supported them. If only the British prime Minister would make the terms he had granted Germany public Stresemann was sure the French would be more reasonable. Unfortunately Lloyd George was unwilling to risk a breech with his main ally.

Stresemann was prepared for another round of pointless negotiations. What he was not ready for was to have the new Polish leader Józef Beck also present or to be blindsided by a joint declaration by Briand, Beck, and Curzon.

Prime Minister Briand outlined the main points. “Before France or her ally Britain can agree to any alteration of the treaty we require a declaration by the German government that Poland shall retain all territory granted to her by said treaty. We also require a declaration that Germany will not annex any new territories or make any claims to any such. If we are to believe this is a defensive war then we would expect the German nation to not seek aggrandizement at the cost of other states.”

Stresemann hid his cold fury as best he could. It felt very much like a betrayal. Germany was fighting for its life, but was also defending all of western civilization from the communist hordes. The French and British not only refused to acknowledge this but were demanding Germany not receive any sort of reward for her sacrifice.

There was an additional layer of treachery in the British signature on this document. David Lloyd George had personally assured him that the final eastern border would be open to negotiation. Now at a stroke this looked to be off the table.

There was also bitterness in Beck’s actions. Germany had permitted Polish refugees to cross the border and had been supporting the Polish Free Army and partisan groups. President Ebert had already met with Beck and had thought they could cooperate and hammer out an agreement based on the reality of the situation, not on nationalistic ideals and claims.

Poland had been completely occupied, her army destroyed. Germany was the only nation in a position to liberate them. Given this reality any independent Polish nation should have been acceptable. The Americans had a saying which covered the situation.

Beggars can’t be choosers.

“This is a completely new development. I will have to forward this to the President.”

Briand and the others accepted this without surprise and the short meeting came to its end. Stresemann had no doubt that Ebert would find the conditions completely unacceptable, but would have to consider carefully how Germany should reply to them.

[Wendell]

This is a time of tensions between Britain and France in the Middle East, as well as among said powers and various Arab groups too. Will we see much more on that front in the near future?