What If The Red Army Captures Warsaw in 1920?

[abc123]

IMO the most wise German strategy now would be halting army in east of-Oder area and diverting part of forces to deal with rebels in Bavaria and Austria. To sort rear before carryng on with warfare.

[Adler17]

Or throwing the Russians out of Germany/Poland and then dealing with the rebels. Once Tuchatschewski is beaten, the Soviets have to rebuild forces, who will be a danger to Germany. And that will last several months at least. In the meantime the Germans can deal with the Red Bavarians and likely Austrians as well.

Adler

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Adler17

Or throwing the Russians out of Germany/Poland and then dealing with the rebels. Once Tuchatschewski is beaten, the Soviets have to rebuild forces, who will be a danger to Germany. And that will last several months at least. In the meantime the Germans can deal with the Red Bavarians and likely Austrians as well.

Adler

True, but with hostile French in the back I would prefer to sort things out in my house first and then deal with Soviets in Poland if all goes well with France.

[Adler17]

It is better to have Poland as buffer and then dealing with Bavaria (and perhaps France), especially if the Soviets need time for the second fight. Now they are still too near to the border. Furthermore, with the Soviets driven out of Poland, Lenin might make peace. MIGHT! At least in the thoughts of the German politicians.

Adler

[stubear1012]

I agree that Germany should have modest war goals for several reasons. 1) They are stressing their economy to handle the current fighting. 2) They need a Communist threat to make the English and Americans less hostile. 3) Poland faced with a hostile Communist Russia will be more open to some agreement with Germany. They are going to keep it to the minimum but it will be some type agreement. 4) Who knows what will happen in France? 5) With a hostile Communist Russia, Germany may be able to sign some type of military/economic agreement with the Baltic States, Finland, and some of the Central European countries.

I have enjoyed this timeline and I am looking forward to seeing how it develops.

Stubear1012.

[Adler17]

Germany does not have the abilities to go to Moscow and tell Lenin to PO. This includes the neccessity to have an enemy present you have to fight with. This will appease Britain, as they don't want to do much on their own and again use Germany as their "continental sabre" (Festlandsdegen). If France goes communistic, they have to act though.

However, if the Soviet remain the enemy, and it is by far not possible to eliminate them atm., the Baltic states, Finland and perhaps Sweden will become German allis. So does Poland. Either they have Germany as ally or they become a Soviet Republic. They want the first. But this will only last until the threat from the Soviets is still there.

France will not have many possibilities now to act against that. And later there are too many fait accompli. If France becomes communistic, there will be likely a civil war at first. I don't see a successful coup in Paris. That would give the Germans more time.

And time is essential. If the Germans manage to finish off the Danzig and Warsaw armies and drive the survivors over the Curzon line, more the Germans won't go, as this was the minimum they had to and could do, too, especially if they hope to come to a negotiation with Lenin, they have enough forces to deal with Bavaria and perhaps Austria as well, even if France is in a civil war.

Once they have been able to stop them, they can throw everything against the French. Ironically that might be at the side of the French loyalist forces.

If Lenin makes more mistakes and risks another revolution, he might not be able to send another army against the Germans. He would be lucky to hold Russia.

Adler

[abc123]

Originally Posted by stubear1012

I agree that Germany should have modest war goals for several reasons. 1) They are stressing their economy to handle the current fighting. 2) They need a Communist threat to make the English and Americans less hostile. 3) Poland faced with a hostile Communist Russia will be more open to some agreement with Germany. They are going to keep it to the minimum but it will be some type agreement. 4) Who knows what will happen in France? 5) With a hostile Communist Russia, Germany may be able to sign some type of military/economic agreement with the Baltic States, Finland, and some of the Central European countries.

I have enjoyed this timeline and I am looking forward to seeing how it develops.

Stubear1012.

Yep, I agree.

[KillerT]

so perhaps medium term a cooling down (possibly dramatic one) of the Entente and probably a new warming together between Britain and Germany to face the common foe (Soviet revolution). Long term (c1944) methinks we can see RAF Lancasters flying over Moscow escorted by Luftwaffe FW190s....

[ingemann]

I'm a new poster here on AH.com, but one of the timelines which made me join was this one (I'm very impressed), I have read this entire thread through and Austria was one of the details which I find intersting for a few reasons. One is that Germany may be allowed to move east against the Russians, but I don't think the allies will allow the Germans to march into Austria, as the allies will fear a German-Austrian union. In fact Italy may throw it support behind the Austrian communists in fear of a German Austria. As such I could see Austria turn into a communist enclave in central Europe.

[LOTLOF]

Originally Posted by ingemann

I'm a new poster here on AH.com, but one of the timelines which made me join was this one (I'm very impressed), I have read this entire thread through and Austria was one of the details which I find intersting for a few reasons. One is that Germany may be allowed to move east against the Russians, but I don't think the allies will allow the Germans to march into Austria, as the allies will fear a German-Austrian union. In fact Italy may throw it support behind the Austrian communists in fear of a German Austria. As such I could see Austria turn into a communist enclave in central Europe.

Welcome to the board.

I am honored to receive your very first post. As for what happens with Austria and elsewhere there will be important changes come New Year's Day.

[LOTLOF]

As the British blockade fleet approached the naval base of Kronstadt they had managed to keep their arrival a secret. This was mainly due to the fact the Soviets were limiting their patrols and keeping most of their torpedo boats and submarines close to shore. This was primarily because of a lack of fuel, but also reflected the reality that the remnants of the Russian Imperial Fleet which the Soviets had inherited were no match for the Royal Navy.

The official Soviet policy had been to maintain patrols near the coast lines to prevent any new foreign interventions or the smuggling of weapons to counter revolutionaries. The illegal blockade of the British would not be opposed until such time as ‘sufficient forces’ were available.

Thus when British Admiral Doveton Sturdee had received his orders he’d been able to concentrate his blockade fleet and sail eastwards completely unseen. His command totaled twenty two ships, most of them being destroyers and frigates. He had only four ships of the line; the dreadnoughts Warspite and Queen Elizabeth, the pre-dreadnought battleship Agamemnon, and the battlecruiser Lion. As they approached the admiral had these four split off from the rest of the squadron, they alone would carry out the bombardment. The rest would act as a screen and keep an eye out for submarines as well as hunt down any vessels that tried to escape once the fighting started.

“Stand off at ten thousand yards.” The admiral ordered.

The sun had not yet touched the horizon, but there was plenty of light. He would have expected to hear alarms sounding from the Russians and their coastal guns already firing even at this range. Taking binoculars he scanned the stone forts and the docks beneath them. Grey shapes bobbed peacefully by their concrete docks. There were no sailors anywhere to be seen, no dockworkers, the ships were being left to slowly fall into disrepair.

Well at least we’ll give them a proper end.

The Russians here and in Saint Petersburg were napping. It was high time to wake them.

“All ships signal in position admiral.”

Sturdee nodded. “Signal all ships, fire at will.”

The guns of the four vessels roared, followed seconds later by the even louder explosions on the island.

It took several minutes before the first counter battery fire came. By that time Sturdee’s ships had the range. As per his order the first targets were the enemy vessels. These were soon engulfed in a mass of flame and greasy black smoke. When he was satisfied they were all well and truly lost he ordered fire concentrated on the forts themselves.

Kronstadt had the equivalent of ten and eleven inch guns which were very dangerous to his ships of the line, and lethal to his smaller vessels.

Throughout the battle there were flashes where concealed artillery fired and geysers of water where shells exploded in the sea. Some came perilously close, but failed to achieve any direct hits. Sturdee’s ships were constantly in motion, refusing to offer the enemy stationary targets. Whereas once his gunners had the range down they were able to score hit after hit. The Royal Navy took great pride in its marksmanship and the results could be seen here. Smoke was soon pouring from the forts as well as from the docks. Many sections of the outer walls were blasted to ruin and a number of the Russian guns were put out of action.

After four hours Kronstadt looked smashed and was obscured behind a pall of thick smoke. Admiral Sturdee nodded in satisfaction; this was a victory and a clear demonstration to the Bolsheviks of the might of the British Empire.

And yet…

Most of the fortress remained standing, and despite being much reduced the Russians were still shooting back. If he truly wanted to smash this place and reduce it to rubble he would need weeks, even a considerably larger fleet would need days. There were no marines or ground troops with him to take this island away from the Reds and then liberate the former capital. No matter how successful this was merely a raid. When they left they would still leave the Bolsheviks in control.

“Signal all ships to cease fire. Have them alter course. We have one more lesson to teach.”

The entire force was brought into range of the city of Saint Petersburg. They could not approach too closely for fear of the mine fields, but they could come near enough to allow the destroyers and other vessels to join in the bombardment.

The British made an effort to limit their fire to the docks and to spare private residences and homes. Despite their best intentions some shells did overreach and civilian targets were hit. Of even greater importance were the fires that these explosions started. Most of the civilians were in a panic and simply trying to get as far from the waterfront as they could. The local Soviet authorities were little better. They were expecting an invasion and their first priority was to save themselves. Their second priority was to try and gather what soldiers they had and ready them to resist any British landings.

In the midst of all this chaos no one thought about putting out the fires until the British were long gone. By that point the fires were so widespread there was no chance of containing them. About half of the city would burn to the ground, including many of the poorest and most overcrowded neighborhoods. Roughly three thousand Russians died during the attack, both soldier and civilian, but over two hundred thousand found themselves homeless.

XXX

After an hour Admiral Sturdee ordered cease fire and withdrew his fleet from the bay.

It had been a good day’s work.

[Ivir Baggins]

That was brutal.

[Pax Britannia]

I was cheering the shelling of Kronstadt but the bombardment of St Petersburg was just cruel.

[LOTLOF]

I have an Indian friend who was born about thirty years after the British left India and he HATES the British. Ask the Indians, Egyptians, Chinese, or any other non white group who they ruled over and see what sort of opinion they have. The British were every bit as capable of acting cruelly as any other colonizing power. For that matter ask the Boers about how gentle they were. During the Boer War it was the British who INVENTED the concept of concentration camps. (Though in fairness the civilians placed there were only kept prisoner and never massacred.)The main difference is they always made a point to justify everything they did, whereas the Spanish or French wouldn't bother. They were masters of public relations centuries before the phrase was invented.

I think here the shelling of Saint Petersburg is a 'measured cruelty.' They didn't set out to burn down the city or leave much of its population homeless. Like many other situations though they were not fully in control of the results of their actions.

[LOTLOF]

Originally Posted by Ivir Baggins

That was brutal.

Thank you.

[KACKO]

Originally Posted by LOTLOF

I have an Indian friend who was born about thirty years after the British left India and he HATES the British.

Now I will get beaten over my head. But they still move to England. I have Indian friends who did it recently.

[CoomerREC7]

Originally Posted by KACKO

Now I will get beaten over my head. But they still move to England. I have Indian friends who did it recently.

People go where the jobs are, look at the US pre Dot.com bust. I remember hearing that something like a quarter million Indians would come to the US for technology jobs.

[stevep]

LOTLOF

How much of that is scap-goating to excuse failure? Its something everybody is guilty of, I can think of plenty of examples.

As you say the attack on the docks was basically a military move. It was chance and the failure of the local authorities that prompted a serious disaster. Bombardment of undefended ports was I think technically a breach of the rules of war but that didn't stop it occurring in WWI. [Although I think the Germans believed the coastal towns they bombarded were actually defended, although given how open Britain was they should have known differently].

I don't know if the Boer War was the 1st case of segregating a distrusted population to prevent them aiding a guerilla resistance. Suspect it was done long before that. Just that was the 1st time the term was coined, which was later used for far darker activities in other regimes.

Steve

Originally Posted by LOTLOF

I have an Indian friend who was born about thirty years after the British left India and he HATES the British. Ask the Indians, Egyptians, Chinese, or any other non white group who they ruled over and see what sort of opinion they have. The British were every bit as capable of acting cruelly as any other colonizing power. For that matter ask the Boers about how gentle they were. During the Boer War it was the British who INVENTED the concept of concentration camps. (Though in fairness the civilians placed there were only kept prisoner and never massacred.)The main difference is they always made a point to justify everything they did, whereas the Spanish or French wouldn't bother. They were masters of public relations centuries before the phrase was invented.

I think here the shelling of Saint Petersburg is a 'measured cruelty.' They didn't set out to burn down the city or leave much of its population homeless. Like many other situations though they were not fully in control of the results of their actions.

[Bavarian Raven]

just read this entire TL and I am loving it. keep it coming

[Methatron]

Great TL. Keep going.