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#381
August 5th, 2011, 01:41 AM
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Map of East Prussia
Here is a map of East Prussia that I found on Wiki.
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#383
August 5th, 2011, 09:12 AM
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Quote:
Because of this I doubt a mutiny will come. At least not so early. Not in early 1921. But later? End of 1921, lost war against Germany, massive economical problems? Sure. But this also may lead to a rethinking of the economical situation with Lenin and so might prevent a mutiny altogether. We'll see. Quote:
Even if we agree about the consequences of a Soviet attack on British warships or escorted ships within the RN, left groups might argue, it is no war worth to be lead. Similar like Vietnam. That and the war weariness should not be underestimated. However, even if the British stay, what do you think how long? The German government will ask this question. Do the British want to station a battle squadron in the Baltic? Permanently? Do they guarantee the supply of East Prussia during the war? Will they act de facto under the control of the German army by fire support missions and other supporting operations? Just now every vessel under German flag will be used to supply East Prussia. I guess new vessels will be bought or rebought. But that does not change the situation with the German fleet. In 1920 there were acive 2 CL, Medusa and Hamburg, and eleven torpedo boats. If we assume Germany kept the ships to be delivered the situation for escort missions would be better. Also some of the other ships to be scrapped might still be useful. However, all of them would be small, even V 105 and V 106 were indeed torpedo boats, or too old for other tasks than escort or reconaissance or other secondary roles. And if they are attacked by Nowik class DD they will be in severe troubles. And we need a look on the map. The Soviets seized Danzig. They can now, unless stopped by permanent naval gunfire, seize the Vistula spit and then effectively close the Vistula Lagoon thus cuttin Königsberg off from the sea. Pillau is then in artillery range. However, they would then also be in danger to be cut off from supply in case of an amphibious assault. But this means, too, the Soviet could install coastal batteries here and on Hela peninsula. And to fight them Germany has no ships. They can't hold the sea way open. The only safe route would be via Memel. That means, not only for now but for the future: Will the British act accordingly? Or will they retreat? Especially in times of recession, when every penny is counting. Who shall guard the Baltic Sea? The British? Or the Germans? If yes, they need ships. And planes to do so. As for East Prussia: It is a land full of rivers, dense forests and lakes. If the Soviets invade without much supplies they might invade deeply but also will then be beaten as they have no supplies. Furthermore: Tuchatschewski has enough man but not so much supplies. Will he really start another serious offensive at another theatre, which is not really necessary? The Germans can't send in reinforcements. But the forces in East Prussia, Reichs- and Landwehr, should be sufficient to defend it for a while, especially in Masurian. If the Soviets atack through Masurian they will face the very same difficulties the Russians had in 1914. However, the way from the west will also be problematic as many river had to be crossed. Adler
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#384
August 5th, 2011, 11:11 AM
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Adler17
You will get Bolshevik supporters arguing for withdrawing but since they are the clear aggressors in this situation their more likely to be discredited than gain any real support. Britain is strained economically at this time, as is everybody else but it still has plenty of forces for what is still a limited naval clash. Also given the choice between the RN and having a rebuilt German naval supplying the Baltic I think they will prefer the former for a number of reasons. [There probably isn't time for the Germans to be rearmed and the problem of finding skilled men as well, Britain still won't trust the Germans with a fleet build-up and also they will know France and Belgium are less likely to be upset by the RN doing the work. Plus as an added bonus for the RN it gives a clear statement of its usefulness to keep the treasury at bay]. I don't think there will be problems with providing fire support for German forces. There will be experience of this [for the British army and possibly others] in WWI and it only needs some fire-control staff stationed ashore with the Germans. You could even see some of the monitors used in the war sent east although with the type of forces involved cruisers and destroyers are probably heavy enough firepower for most uses. On the defence of E Prussia you raise a good point about the Vistula spit but it does require them advancing along a fairly thin and probably pretty open stretch of land. Should be fairly easy to defend against and any forces would be highly vulnerable to artillery, especially from ships. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the RN ships active in support of Danzig wasn't covering retreats of civilians from the city and probably also helping defence against any attacks along the spit already. On the Krondstadt sailors continued war might make a mutiny less likely but don't forget their 1917 one was inspired by the then governments refusal to end the war. The same thing is happening now with Lenin expanding the conflict. Also I very much doubt their totally isolated from how much people are suffering under the governments excesses. Therefore the conditions for another mutiny are present and while its not certain I wouldn't rule it out. Steve
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#385
August 5th, 2011, 12:17 PM
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Steve, you raise some good points. However, there are several things to consider:
1. Germany already once had to rely on foreign powers naval help and dramatically crashed with that (1848 against Denmark). That still has to be kept in mind. 2. Britain is strained. And yes, for NOW they can afford such a mission. The question is, for how LONG? How LONG can they guarantee having more than an eye on the Soviets? What will happen, if there is suddenly a crisis somewhere else, let's say with Japan? So I severely doubt the British will be willing to station a battle squadron for YEARS in PEACETIME after the war. Indeed IMO that will be the only reason for Germany not demanding some more own ships. 3. Half of the spit is already occupied. While you are right about the naval gunfire support, it might still be more difficulty to defend. 4. I guess a mutiny won't happen until a) Peace is restored and the situation is still bad or becomes even worse b) A major defeat in the war, not only in a battle but in the whole situation (Warsaw Army defeated and on the run out of Poland) c) war lasts long for no avail That means, however, a mutiny won't come early 1921, as long as Tuchatschewski is not totally beaten. Adler
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#386
August 5th, 2011, 11:06 PM
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This has been a good discussion. I can see a scenario where Britain would agree to keep a small squadron of war ships in the Baltic Sea after the Eastern War.
Britain reaches a secret agreement with Germany that Britain will keep some naval units in the Baltic as a deterrent to Soviet naval aggression. With all of the problems that the Soviet economy is having, I don’t see them building any modern ships or doing any costly upgrades for a long time. I have heard that unless you do a good maintenance program, the longer ships sit in port, the more problem they have when they leave port for the first time. So, depending on the priority that the Soviet Government places on naval maintenance versus their other needs, there should be time to alert the Home Fleet before the Soviet fleet can sail. Also, the peace time squadron does not necessary have to be a large one or a cutting edge one since an attack on any British ship would trigger a large naval response. In exchange, the Germans would agree not push to change the treaty limits on their navy and provide access to a port for the British ships to refuel and resupply. I can see where British navy would want to keep an eye on the Soviet navy and a justification for keep the navy a certain size. Also, the squadron in the Baltic can keep an eye on the Germans to make sure that they don’t try to cheat. If one of the ships could come with a sea plane or if a couple of sea planes could be stationed in the Baltic Sea that would be good. They could aid on checking on the Soviet Navy and Germany Navy. Britain is dependent on trade so making sure that the shipping lanes in the Baltic are kept open and their companies have access to the countries on the shore of the Baltic is important to them. Germany can benefit by cooperating with Britain on a major British issue. This would be in line with the plan to survive by being useful to Britain. Also, the Germans could use the money that a naval expansion would cost elsewhere in their economy. As always this is my opinion. Stubear1012
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#387
August 6th, 2011, 09:31 AM
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Adler
Quote:
In this case there is the factor that its also definitely in Britain's interest, both because they want to prevent the Soviets making gains in the region and because a British presence means as stubear1012 points out they give the Germans no reason to expand their navy. There is a potential down side for Britain here in that, after making that commitment if they do withdraw the ships at a latter stage Germany does have an excuse to rearm. Presuming that is that the Soviet threat remains, which seems most likely. Quote:
In the longer term, as stubear1012 mentions, a relatively small force as a screen and tripwire would be highly likely to be cost effective and part of the Home Fleet could fairly quickly move to support it. One big potential side effect of such a confrontation is it could sink the Washington Treaty and see the alliance with Japan renewed. That could have some huge bonuses for Britain. Quote:
Also why are you thinking its half occupied. stubear1012's map shows the historical political boundaries but because the Soviets stormed most of Danzig doesn't mean they managed to occupy the spit. Quote:
Steve
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#388
August 6th, 2011, 09:32 AM
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There are these problems:
1. How long will the British stay? How trustworthy are they? 2. The British are a foreign nation and can break the treaty. If they do, whatever reasons might they have, what kind of "damages" can the German government demand? 3. True, the Soviets won't be able to make a rebuilt of the fleet in, let's say, 10+ years. However, they still have a fleet in the Baltic no other nation with Baltic shores can cope with. 4. It lasts long to build a fleet. That is true for the Germans as well as the Soviets. But if The Soviets do so and the British retreat, the Germans can't react so fast. And they need to defend a coast from Nimmersatt to Flensburg! With long beaches ideal for an invasion. With important sea lanes to be kept open. The Germans cannot trust the British stay forever, especially if Washington treaty happens. While I agree they are now needing the British, they, too, have to rely on a Plan B. I also agree about a treaty with Britain in these regards. Here I could see some "adjustments" on the treaty, like more and bigger ships. However, the British will IMO soon leave the Baltic or want to do so after the treaty is signed. With soon I mean a few years. The same happened in the early days of the cold war. Even before 1949 there were some ideas to rearm the Germans against the Soviets. Heck, you could even date that back to 1945, when Churchill wanted to keep some parts of the Wehrmacht still active. Over short or long this will happen here, too. The question is, what will the Germans do if the British retreat? How can they enforce to stay? Here I think the Germans will have to negotiate. IMO I could see this kind of deal: 1. Germany keeps 4 of the old dreadnoughts of the Nassau and Ostfriesland classes with one in reserve instead of the the 8 predreadnoughts. 2. Germany may finish 4 of the CL and 12 of the DD being built. 3. Germany may have 10 CL of now 8.000 ts and 12 more DD of 1.650 ts. 12 more DD may not be over 1.000 ts and 24 TB not over 800 ts. 2 CL, 4 DD and 8 TB in reserve. 4. Germany may finish the 6 BB and BC being built, but they may be disarmed. If the British retreat for whatever reason, they may be allowed to rearm them. Adler
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#389
August 6th, 2011, 09:38 AM
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Quote:
Sounds like a very good summary and idea. I would say the agreement wouldn't be secret, at least not in reality. That way both sides know where they stand, the navy has an argument for maintaining spending, Russia is deterred and France is assured that Britain is keeping an eye on the situation. You're quite right that the Soviets ships will decay if maintenance isn't kept up, which seems likely. Furthermore, even keeping them in port will mean that some failures will slip even a good maintenance routine and of course the crews won't get any real practice. In fact if the RN are keeping a presence in the Baltic to block any use of the fleet and given the expected defeat and roll back of Soviet power I could see even less being spent than OTL. [Even presuming that a mutiny doesn't cause further damage or possibly see the ships used to escape to other countries]. Steve
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#390
August 6th, 2011, 02:03 PM
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October 3, 1920
‘Great Victory at Stentsch!’ ‘Red Army Crushed!’ ‘Russians sent Fleeing!’ President Ebert eyed the headlines with both satisfaction and concern. When the Soviets and their Polish puppets had declared war Ebert had immediately proclaimed a return to war economy and to rationing. He had been afraid of riots. The German people had literally been facing starvation by the end of 1918. No one in Germany wanted to speak that dreaded word; rationing. Yet the people had accepted it almost without a murmur. Even the nationalists had gone along without much complaint. The threat of foreign invasion combined with the revolt and atrocities in Bavaria had convinced people that great sacrifices would be needed to save Germany. Fortunately, having the British supporting them meant they had access to the sea and could import food. The people might grow a bit hungry but they would not starve! Threatened on every side the Volk were more united than they had been since 1914. Ebert was relieved to see that, having witnessed firsthand the upheavals at the end of the war he understood just how vital civilian morale was. If the nation lost hope the soldiers in the field would as well. That was the reason the headlines in the Berlin papers concerned him. Reading them along with the articles beneath one got the impression the enemy had either been completely annihilated or else sent fleeing back into Poland. The reports from Mackensen made it quite clear that was wishful thinking. They had won a great victory and inflicted heavy loss on the enemy. As the Field Marshal made clear though the Russians were used to heavy losses. And even taking those into account the enemy still had at minimum a three (more likely four) to one advantage in men. Admittedly the Bolsheviks were much more poorly armed and disciplined, but numbers like that could still work wonders under the right circumstances. The Russians were starting to expand both north and south of Stentsch while keeping troops there to cover the city. They were obviously looking for a location where they could cross over the river more easily. Mackensen had made the very hard decision to give up the eastern bank and have all the bridges in the area blown. This meant, of course, leaving the civilians who had not fled in time to the Russians’ mercy. The area and population were relatively small but it was still hard to abandon German soil and German volk. Mackensen had declared it a military necessity. To defeat the enemy he would need to concentrate his forces where he could achieve a decisive blow. He was not going to spread out the troops of the First Army and mirror the Russians, that would be playing to the enemy’s advantage. He also declined to assault the Russian trench line opposite him. The Field Marshal had no doubts that with his army’s advantage in firepower they could drive the Russians back, but it would be at a cost. The Russians would also have an open line of retreat and could simply dig in again a bit closer to their base in Pozen. Mackensen had no wish to fight static battles against line after line of trenches. He did not want to fight battles of attrition against the more numerous enemy. What he was seeking was a battle of annihilation similar to Tannenberg or to what the Schiefflin Plan should have been. He was withdrawing divisions from the front at Stentsch and holding them as a mobile reserve to strike when the enemy intentions became clear. Lack of motorized transports would slow them some but they had trains available and could move troops by rail. Meanwhile air patrols and Landwehr units on the western bank of the river were keeping a careful watch. Ebert feared the backlash of public opinion when it became clear the Russians were not defeated. The public was much too euphoric. When the reality was recognized morale would drop. Having just endured four years of the most terrible war in human history Ebert had expected the people to better understand not just the cost but the duration of modern war. Then again after what they have been through they probably don’t want to consider enduring it a second time. Ebert thought. The President was sure this war would not be as terrible as the last one. He simply could not imagine any war being that terrible ever again. That was not the same as saying the struggle would be easy. The First Army had the bulk of Germany’s armed forces and was dealing with the main threat to the Fatherland. At the same time the Russians had launched their primary attack in the direction of Berlin they had also invaded East Prussia. They were using the same army that had captured Danzig; a much smaller force than the one Mackensen had faced. They were estimated to be about one hundred thousand strong. Against this force stood Second Army under the command of General Gunther von Etzel. Second Army consisted of the Fourth Reichswehr Infantry Division as well as the hastily mobilized fifth and sixth Landwehr infantry divisions along with some Freikorps units. All together von Etzel had about thirty five thousand armed men under his command. The Landwehr and Freikorps lacked artillery and sufficient machine guns. They were all locally recruited though, which meant they were literally fighting to protect their homes and families. Morale was not likely to be a problem. With the fall of Danzig and the Corridor Second Army was cut off from the rest of Germany. They could still be reached by sea however. There would be no trouble keeping them supplied. They could also be reinforced by sea when there were additional troops to spare. There were more men in East Prussia clamoring to volunteer. The problem was that the reserve stocks of equipment they’d had thanks to von Seeckt were now expended, except for the rifles. From this point on they would need to construct or purchase artillery and other equipment. Creating new Reichswehr Divisions to guard the heart of Germany remained the priority, but East Prussia had to be defended. There were enough men there, the issue was equipping them. The Third Army consisted of three Landwehr divisions; the first, second and seventh. These were also lacking artillery and heavy weapons. They were dug in and watching the new border with the so called Bavarian Soviet Republic. With the treason of the German communists Ebert had outlawed both the USPD and KPD and had the handful of seats they held in the Reichstag ‘suppressed.’ (This was technically against the constitution but the other parties had all supported him. This would also allow him to avoid calling for new elections during the crisis.) All property owned by the parties was confiscated and the few members who were still in Germany were placed under arrest. Ebert had issued another presidential decree forbidding the creation of any new political party or organization which, ‘was based on or in any way supported the ideology of communism.’ Ebert had also worked fervently to make the public see a very clear distinction between communist and socialist. ‘Communist Criminals!’ ‘Red Bavaria Stabs Germany in the Back!’ Were common headlines in the socialist papers and much of the official government propaganda was of a similar vein. Ebert liked to think of himself as a fair minded man. He was however not above using the government press to help the SPD. He would do everything he could to make the communists synonymous with ‘November criminals’ and to have them be thought of as the ones who had stabbed Germany in the back. The government propaganda would paint himself and his party as the staunch defenders of Germany. If they won this war Ebert wanted the SPD to receive the lion’s share of credit in the public’s eyes. The nationalist parties were already complaining about that. Ebert didn’t care. They had been more than eager to blame the socialists for losing the Great War. It seemed only fair they get the credit for winning the Eastern War. Whenever that day came. Bavaria would be liberated and every traitor hanged… eventually. For now though all they could do was keep a watch on them. Along with the military situation there were other issues he was concerned with. A synagogue in Frankfurt had been burned down. The four men responsible had been quickly identified and arrested. Ebert had sent a strong message to the local magistrates that these men were to be punished to the full extent of the law. There had been a sharp rise of violence against Jews since the Bavarian revolt. Many opposition papers were stirring things up and claiming every Jewish community was a nest of communist spies. Ebert had publicly declared that the Jews of Germany were citizens and would be given the same protection under the law as all other citizens. To make his point he had removed several police chiefs in Berlin who had refused to investigate beatings and robberies of Jewish victims. The German republic was going to be a nation of law and social justice; not a country ruled by hate and mindless fear. In the Polish refugee camps French, Belgian, and British officials were busy providing aid and organizing an election. They were acting on behalf of the League of Nations. For political reasons Ebert wanted to try and create a Polish government in exile. He knew that if he tried to do so directly the Allies would scream he had handpicked a puppet government and deny it recognition. He had therefore agreed to permit an election by the refugees organized and administered solely by representatives of the League. The Germans would be completely ‘hands off.’ This way whoever was selected would be immediately accepted by the international community as representing the Polish people. Ebert could afford to do this as he was confident who would win even though there were several candidates. General Jozef Beck, commander of the Polish Free Army and one of the few officers to survive the battle of Warsaw was the only real choice. The Poles saw him as tragic hero who’d risked everything for them and who was still ready to fight on. He had organized the Free Army and declared that Poland would rise again. Desperate for any hope the refugees had embraced him. Ebert had spoken with the man several times and was building a relationship with him. The President had hinted that no matter what the Allies might promise only Germany would be in the position to restore a modified Poland. He wanted to make clear that only Germany could protect Poland from Russia and that they should be friends. On German terms of course. President Ebert was careful to make no firm commitments; he was simply sharing his thoughts. Beck for his part had also avoided making any sort of promises. He understood the weakness of his position and his need for German support. Ebert suspected Beck was hoping that the situation might change and that British and French influence might make a difference. That was enough for Ebert. Naturally Beck would want to restore Poland to its Versailles borders. How Poland was eventually liberated and by whom would decide things. At least Beck was not a wild eyed nationalist insisting on a bunch of ridiculous demands. He appeared to be enough of a realist to be open to negotiation when the time came. The situation in France was worrisome. Fernand Loriot had emerged as the new leader of the SFIO and was loudly declaring that he would follow the same path Boris Souvarine had championed. He wanted full reparation payments, a halt to German rearmament, recognition of Bavaria as a free and independent nation, and (worst of all) an alliance with the Soviet Union. The political atmosphere was emotionally charged and highly unstable. The SFIO already had a strong following among the working class as well as among veterans. It was certainly possible that Loriot might come to power in the near future. That would be very bad for Germany. Last edited by LOTLOF; August 7th, 2011 at 10:42 AM..
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#391
August 6th, 2011, 02:33 PM
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Quote:
This was not forgotten. The British have a reason, yes. But only for now. What happens in 5 Years? Or in 10? A German rearming in such a case would only be the natural cause. IMO the British will do it this way. They will leave sooner or later. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Adler
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#392
August 6th, 2011, 09:20 PM
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Excellent Post of the status of things in Germany.
This is an excellent post LOTLOF. Please keep them up.
I was pleased to read Ebert is positioning his part as a center left part. I was very glad to see the government come down on both the far left and far right. By maintaining law and order, the government is helping establish themselves with the middle class. I found it interesting that the Allies are providing aid to the Polish refugees since this frees up German resources for the war effort. The fact that the League of Nation is organizing the election will definitely help the image of Germany in the world. It was interesting to read about the interactions between Ebert and Beck. It appears that both of them understand that they have their own countries interest at heart. They know the strength and weakness of each others position but they know down deep that they have to work out an agreement and cooperate with each other. Where I am from there is an old saying- You don't have to like reality but you have to deal with it. Since it is early October in this timeline, I am assuming that winter will coming soon with cold weather and snow. Based on the problems that the Soviets are having supplying their troops, they may not be able to provide winter clothes to them. That will definitely take a toll of their combat readiness. I did find a another map on Wiki which shows more of the rivers of East Prussia. I know that the time period is two hundred years ago but I am assuming the the rivers and lakes are in the same basic position. The rivers do provide some natural lines of defense for the Germans. Please keep posting. Stubear1012
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#393
August 6th, 2011, 10:12 PM
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Feel free to use more detailed maps.
__________________
Magnificate's DeviantART gallery
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#394
August 7th, 2011, 08:43 AM
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great update, the comunist treath must be crushed.
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#395
August 7th, 2011, 09:56 AM
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...stpreussen.JPG
Indeed there are many small rivers and lakes more to be recognized, not only Nogat, Passange and Alle. That and the forests make any offensive there costly. Furthermore Königsberg is the strongest fortress in Germany. They have no artillery and will have a tough nut to crack. And they need supplies! Very difficult to transport in such an environment. Adler
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#397
August 11th, 2011, 05:31 PM
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October 4, 1920
Lenin sat in his office in the Kremlin looking at the various reports in front of him. On top of all the others was the one forwarded by Trotsky. It confirmed the faith he still had in Tukhachevsk. “If Tukhachevsk cannot do it no one can. He is already seeking out another road to Berlin. I intend to support him as much as I possibly can. We will advance as rapidly as the situation allows. Assuming of course a political solution is not found in the meantime.” That last line gave Lenin just the smallest bit of concern. What was Trotsky hinting at? The man was usually very blunt as to his intentions. A political solution? Was he trying to suggest they make peace with the German capitalists? Lenin shook his head. No matter what the difficulties of the situation that was impossible now. Europe was on the verge of revolution. The oppressed workers and peasants were looking to him for salvation and deliverance. If they could only take Berlin it would be a sign to the entire continent that the time to rise up had come. If they abandoned the struggle though communists and socialists everywhere would see that as a betrayal. The dialectic proved that the communist state was inevitable in all nations and Lenin had no doubt the day would come when all the workers in the world would finally be free. It did not provide a time frame though. The imperialist states had been weakened by their capitalist war and were vulnerable now. Give them time though and the chains might remain for another generation or more. No. Even though they were weak the capitalists were as well. The opportunity was now. Lenin was familiar with the concept of making peace with an enemy in order to gain breathing space and be in a better position to continue a struggle at a later date. That was the strategy Czar Alexander had used at Tilsit. He had used it himself at Brest Litovsk in order to consolidate the revolution. The problem was that the West would gain much more from such a reprieve than the Soviets would. Give the capitalists two or three years to recover and stamp out their dissidents and there would be no hope at all of defeating them. “The time is now and no later.” Lenin said to himself. He would write to Trotsky and remind him of that. He would also encourage Tukhachevsk to push forward. Though Lenin was still certain he could count on Trotsky’s support the tiniest bit of doubt had now entered his mind. One thing Lenin could not deny though was that the Soviet Union was having difficulties. He was getting reports from nearly all the provinces that there were no more food supplies anywhere to requisition. The protracted fighting in the Ukraine had ruined much of the agricultural crop this year. There had been drought and fighting elsewhere that had killed or driven away farmers. Worst of all though many peasants had simply refused to plant crops. The requisitions of war communism were absolutely necessary but from the peasants’ point of view it just meant they would work all spring and summer just to have everything taken from them in the fall. Their answer had been to stop working. What to do about that was a dilemma. Some peasants had been shot as examples to the others about counter revolutionary activity. This had done little to improve things and seemed to be hardening the countryside against the socialist state. Obviously shooting or imprisoning many of the farmers would not help with food production. Lenin did not like admitting to mistakes, but it was obvious the policy of war communism had failed badly and would need to be replaced. That was for the future though. Now he had to face the fact that there was going to be a famine all through Russia. With most other nations openly hostile and the British blockade firmly in place there was no hope of importing food. Their only willing trading partner was nationalist Turkey and as they were fighting the Allied supported Greek army they could do only so much. One of the amusing ironies was that the Soviet Union had a large quantity of gold available. He was having some of it sent to the Turks to aid them and help foster trade and good relations. It also helped with certain clandestine operations. But so long as most of the capitalist states refused to trade with them that gold did little good. Lenin had always been sure the capitalists would sell them the rope with which to hang them, now though they were choosing self-preservation over making a profit. Lenin would never have believed them capable of such good sense. The capitalists and the peasants were not the only problems. Many of the workers, the people the revolution had been fought for, were also causing trouble. The Soviet Union desperately needed the factories to produce. The armies required weapons and munitions. The railways needed locomotives and rails. Industry in general needed every sort of tool and equipment. Yet production in every area was a fraction of what it had been prior to the war. Workers were leaving the cities to go to the countryside in search of food. Many refused to do the more strenuous and dangerous tasks that no longer seemed worthy of the pay. There were actual strikes and protests in Petrograd and other cities where workers demanded better pay and more food. Many of these men had fought to liberate the country from the oppressors and should have been the most loyal. More and more often the words, ‘Peace, Bread, Land’ could be found painted on the sides of buildings or on hand bills posted and distributed in secret. Those words had been Lenin’s battle cry against the conservatives. Having them turned against him seemed a cruel jest. The people just did not understand that everything was being done for their sake. For them and for the workers and peasants of all nations. They were going to create a modern society based on equality and a just distribution of all goods. All the old superstitions and excessive privileges of the few were going to be torn away and a rational system based on individual worth would replace it. Such a world could not be reached without sacrifice, people needed to understand that. Unfortunately most of the people were uneducated and illiterate and were not really open to intelligent discourse. You had to appeal to them through emotion; either by inspiring them or terrifying them. And terror was usually much easier to apply and longer lasting. Lenin was certain that the next few months would be difficult but had faith that the party and state would manage. There were bright spots. Wrangle and his followers had left the Crimea had gone into exile. That meant the total collapse of the counter revolutionary forces. Except for those in distant Siberia. He had received a coded message from a Cheka agent named Konstantin about an interesting meeting he was trying to arrange. From France he had received a personal letter from Fernand Loriot; the new leader of the SFIO. He spoke of his hopes for cooperation between them if he should come to power in France. Loroit spoke of a partnership and of working together to create, ‘a new Europe.’ If Loriot came to power it would mean another nation in the Soviet camp and an important step towards that glorious future. Lenin intended to write Loroit back and offer whatever help he could. Lenin was prepared to risk everything to make that dream a reality.
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#399
August 11th, 2011, 11:37 PM
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LOTLOF
The word that comes to mind is CRASH! A pity Wrangel's forces have been driven from the Crimean but Lenin seems to have been totally blinded by his own ego to the fragility of his entire empire. One point you noted is with an on-going war there will be a blockade, plus probably even without a blockade the US will be less generous than OTL with food aid so it could be a very bad time for the subjects of the Soviet state.  I'm also wondering what will happen with the correspondence with Loriot. That could possibly prompt civil war in France. Alternatively if his rely to Loriot falls into hostile hands it could do a lot to discredit the hard left in France. A little intrigued by the comment about interesting meeting the Cheka agent is trying to arrange. Sounds like some possible ally but not sure whom. Steve
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#400
August 12th, 2011, 08:14 AM
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In this moments there are several problems on both sides:
1. Germany a) Germany is able to beat the Soviets. However, the 2nd Army is low on heavy weapons and will have a hard stand against the Soviet Danzig Army. The main advantage of the 2nd army is the territory. And the fact of the much better supply situation. The 3rd Army is even less a real army and will only contain the Bavarians not do make further advances. They need really expert troops to finish off the Reds. The 1st Army has won the first battle but needs a final blow on the Warsaw Army. b) France. If Loriot gets the power and is able to do so without civil war a second front in the west might be opened and that would be too much now. Although I still think it would be a bloody thing the French likely would take Berlin as there are too few troops to stop them. c) Time. Because of that Germany needs a fast victory like Cannae, a full defeat of the Warsaw Army forcing Lenin to make peace, so that Loriot can't react in time. Considering the supply problems and lack of ammo the Soviets have it is possible. However, it will still remain a big problem, as the Soviets are outnumbering the Germans still 4:1. 2. Soviets a) Supply: Here I don't need to say much. They have no supplies and that endangers everything. Lenin is risking his army and will likely cause a massive defeat. However, Germany will not be able to go to Moscow. b) France. As it is already said: Loriot might cause a civil war or might even never come to power because of the relations to him, Lenin. Even if he wins the civil war the time might be way too late to change the course of the war. Indeed then Versailles will be de facto out of force. An interesting situation. Germany against France and the Soviets. In this case Britain will support Germany even more. After a potential civil war France won't be able to help the Soviets as they are already beaten and a war alone against Germany would not be possible if the Reichswehr is now in the west as the civil war would have costed too many resources. c) Time. Yes, also the Soviets have a time problem. The later the offensive the earlier the domestic problems are getting worse. Once the famine is coming war could no longer be lead due to the massive problems in supplying and morale, if the family at home is hungry because of the government. The whole Soviet empire might fall. Adler
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