What If The Red Army Captures Warsaw in 1920?

[LOTLOF]

While I agree that some generals would avoid a head on assault against such strong fortifications keep in mind the era we are in. This is just a couple years removed from the Great War. Joffre, Haig, Neville, this would certainly not be the first time troops were sent out to attacks strongly held positions by their generals The Somme, Verdun, Passchendaele, are just a few examples of battles where the only strategy was 'up and at 'em!'



What is more I have tried to clearly paint the picture of an army that is NOT a professional military. The Red Army values political reliability above professional competence. Given the choice between a brilliant commander and an obedient one they will choose the latter. The whole reason why the commissars exist is to guarantee the loyalty and reliability of the officers and men. They value obedience not skill.



It needs to be clear that in the German Army a general could get away with bending or breaking rules so long as he succeeded. In the Red Army there was simply no tolerance for this. I believe that Tukhachevsky is intelligent enough to see the situation for what it is, but that he is trapped by circumstances.



The Warsaw Army is a slow moving plodding force. They have chosen this path largely because there is a road and rail line that will make movement and supply easier. Just getting them to move along this single path while remaining fed is difficult enough. To turn them around and search out alternate river crossings will mean a long delay. Plus with the Luftwaffe constantly overhead achieving surprise is impossible.



Still, I agree that this would be a better choice. BUT he is afraid of withdrawing without giving battle. For a general who is afraid of so much as sounding defeatist it is impossible without putting himself in serious risk. Tukhachevsky honestly feels that if he does anything but attack he will be putting himself in danger. Perhaps a general should be willing to risk himself to spare his men; but I cannot really blame him for it when that is the reality he is forced to deal with.

[LordIreland]

Originally Posted by informationfan

well,

he ist not allenby or some other brain dead british general

Would that be Viscount Allenby of Meggido? So named for a masterful battle that involved combining ground troops, cavalry and air forces in what is argueably the first instance of blitzkreig?

[LOTLOF]

Oh and also as to the artillery barrage. Obviously that was far more than was needed to deal with a couple regiments. The Field Marshal did that deliberately.

It is the lion's roar.

It is Mackensen's way of letting the Russians know they are not fighting the Poles anymore. This is Germany, and if they want to go forward they will have to pay the price.

[Adler17]

Originally Posted by LOTLOF

While I agree that some generals would avoid a head on assault against such strong fortifications keep in mind the era we are in. This is just a couple years removed from the Great War. Joffre, Haig, Neville, this would certainly not be the first time troops were sent out to attacks strongly held positions by their generals The Somme, Verdun, Passchendaele, are just a few examples of battles where the only strategy was 'up and at 'em!'



What is more I have tried to clearly paint the picture of an army that is NOT a professional military. The Red Army values political reliability above professional competence. Given the choice between a brilliant commander and an obedient one they will choose the latter. The whole reason why the commissars exist is to guarantee the loyalty and reliability of the officers and men. They value obedience not skill.



It needs to be clear that in the German Army a general could get away with bending or breaking rules so long as he succeeded. In the Red Army there was simply no tolerance for this. I believe that Tukhachevsky is intelligent enough to see the situation for what it is, but that he is trapped by circumstances.



The Warsaw Army is a slow moving plodding force. They have chosen this path largely because there is a road and rail line that will make movement and supply easier. Just getting them to move along this single path while remaining fed is difficult enough. To turn them around and search out alternate river crossings will mean a long delay. Plus with the Luftwaffe constantly overhead achieving surprise is impossible.



Still, I agree that this would be a better choice. BUT he is afraid of withdrawing without giving battle. For a general who is afraid of so much as sounding defeatist it is impossible without putting himself in serious risk. Tukhachevsky honestly feels that if he does anything but attack he will be putting himself in danger. Perhaps a general should be willing to risk himself to spare his men; but I cannot really blame him for it when that is the reality he is forced to deal with.

I agree.

The Red Army never saw own losses as a problem, unless the result was achieved, even if it could be reached with less losses. Obedience was the main skill they wanted. Not military skill. That this worked was the result of supervision. And no one could dare not to obey. Stalin wanted to take Berlin. But he had two commanders. And he wanted to control them and so started a race between them. They attacked at all costs. And I am still thinking that without Hitler and with the resources of the operations in the West and Hungary the Russian Army would not have succeeded and met her fate.

Indeed the lack of military skill and making decisions on their own, taking the initiative, also against the rules, if neccessary, was a problem of the Red Army (and all other totalitarian systems, including the late Wehrmacht, not in the first years of the war!).

IMO Tuchatschewsky had no other option than to attack. Otherwise he would have had a problem with the Tschecka. He had to attack. And he had to keep the supply running. It would completely run out, if they left the roads. They are already thin. They have just few places to attack. And they decided for the closest point. The Germans knew that. Their whole offensive was doomed before the first Soviet soldier passed the border. There was no moment of surprise. And now they are surprised.

Tuchatschewsky has IMO little chances now. His options are:

1. Attacking and after that retreating to find another way. The only possible way. He can only hope the commissars once see the impossibility of breaking through and so will allow the retreat for another attempt elsewhere.

2. Not attacking and looking for another way. That would cost time. The same as in 1. And it would be a risk for the supplies. He might try to do so, but will face the very same problems elsewhere. His army is slow, much slower than the German. And he has to use main roads to keep the supply running. If he took another route, let's say Lissa in Silesia, the Germans were there before him. It is the story of the rabbit and the hedgehog. The Germans can move fastly on the inner line. So only a small army can deny the Soviets the way effectively. He has to break through. And the later he does the worse it is. He has then less supplies and the Germans more men ready for action.

3. Making peace and going home, even if only waiting for a second chance. That would be impossible and ASB.

Adler

[stevep]

LOTLOF

I can see the Soviets being badly led but not that badly led. Furthermore this is a very large army. As such its not going to advance along a single line but along a fairly broad front. Not only is that best against a numerically inferior foe its also the only way you will get the army moving anywhere in time. As such some units might be thrown against Stentsch, partly out of inability to show initiative and also to pin the defenders but also a lot more will be advancing to either side of it. If Stentsch is a point defence it will simply get bypassed and surrounded.

You mis-understand the problems of the WWI battles, especially on the western front. Generals couldn't manoeuvre after the early stages simply because the front line was continuous. Assorted ones tried various methods to get around the problem but this only succeeded again towards the end of the war.

Here, unless Stentsch is part of an extended line it will bled the Soviets somewhat but be encircled. Furthermore Mackensen is experienced enough to know this. He won't have the bulk of his army in one spot but spread across the front because he knows he can't afford to be flanked. While the route the Soviets are following is possibly the easiest and most direct there's no natural bottlenecks that force the entire force to come through here.

Steve

[Adler17]

Originally Posted by stevep

LOTLOF

I can see the Soviets being badly led but not that badly led. Furthermore this is a very large army. As such its not going to advance along a single line but along a fairly broad front. Not only is that best against a numerically inferior foe its also the only way you will get the army moving anywhere in time. As such some units might be thrown against Stentsch, partly out of inability to show initiative and also to pin the defenders but also a lot more will be advancing to either side of it. If Stentsch is a point defence it will simply get bypassed and surrounded.

You mis-understand the problems of the WWI battles, especially on the western front. Generals couldn't manoeuvre after the early stages simply because the front line was continuous. Assorted ones tried various methods to get around the problem but this only succeeded again towards the end of the war.

Here, unless Stentsch is part of an extended line it will bled the Soviets somewhat but be encircled. Furthermore Mackensen is experienced enough to know this. He won't have the bulk of his army in one spot but spread across the front because he knows he can't afford to be flanked. While the route the Soviets are following is possibly the easiest and most direct there's no natural bottlenecks that force the entire force to come through here.

Steve

Steve, under normal circumstances you're right. But not here. Indeed here is a bottleneck- the streets and railways. There is few supply and even less means to tranport. So the Warsaw Army has to stay relative close to the streets and will not be able to make big manoeuvres. That has a parallel in 1914, when the Russian armies used the railways and roads but failed to evolve a better battle order. (Yes, I know the Masurian lakes and forests were obstacles, too.)
Anyway, the German army has about 90.000 men at Stentsch. But where are the other 90.000+ men? I guess they will try to outflank the Soviets soon.

We'll see. I am looking forward.

Adler

[jaybird]

In terms of rear-line units, just how well off logistically would one say the Red Army of 1920 was, taking into account further advances and presumably having to deal with Polish partisans? One extreme obviously is the US Army, with something like 10 REMFs for every pair of boots on the ground. Personally, I envision the Red Army as something more like the Posleen - one million soldiers means one million rifles. If that is indeed the case, by all rights they should be close to starving as it is, especially with an empty countryside in front and Soviet agriculture behind.

[stevep]

jaybird

That is another reason why they would have to move on a wide front. They will be living off the land as much as possible and no matter how effiecent the Germans will be [and I think LOTLOF has overdone that a bit] the land is wealthy enough that they will be able to get some supplies. Even so they need to be spread about a bit to get anything like enough and it would also mean that the bulk of the army isn't marching in the dust and mud of the vanguard.

Alder17 - The roads are useful but not essential. Streets, at least in English tend to mean urban roads and while advancing through the town will be the fastest way, once its in Soviet hands, they will be a lot better off and faster overall, outflanking any stronghold.

Steve

Originally Posted by Adler17

Steve, under normal circumstances you're right. But not here. Indeed here is a bottleneck- the streets and railways. There is few supply and even less means to tranport. So the Warsaw Army has to stay relative close to the streets and will not be able to make big manoeuvres. That has a parallel in 1914, when the Russian armies used the railways and roads but failed to evolve a better battle order. (Yes, I know the Masurian lakes and forests were obstacles, too.)
Anyway, the German army has about 90.000 men at Stentsch. But where are the other 90.000+ men? I guess they will try to outflank the Soviets soon.

We'll see. I am looking forward.

Adler

Originally Posted by jaybird

In terms of rear-line units, just how well off logistically would one say the Red Army of 1920 was, taking into account further advances and presumably having to deal with Polish partisans? One extreme obviously is the US Army, with something like 10 REMFs for every pair of boots on the ground. Personally, I envision the Red Army as something more like the Posleen - one million soldiers means one million rifles. If that is indeed the case, by all rights they should be close to starving as it is, especially with an empty countryside in front and Soviet agriculture behind.

[Franks]

@LOTLOF
I am a bit confused. Stentsch is located a few kilometers west of the Obra river and it's just a small village? Is your Stentsch fictional?

As far as I can tell from maps Tukhachevsky's main force would advance along two axis: Bentschen-Frankfurt (an der Oder) and Kreuz-Küstrin, while his remaining troops would keep German forces in the provinces of Silesia, Pommerania and the remainder of West Prussia preoccupied. Capturing both Frankfurt and Küstrin would allow the Russians to move south and north of Berlin cutting the city off from any reinforcements in the East.

For the initial attacks over the Obra (Bentschen-Frankfurt axis) and Netze/Notec (Kreuz-Küstrin) Tukhachevsky would probably attempt to move as fast and as hard as he could keeping his troops in the large forests so they can close in with the German defensive positions. Without the cover of the forests the German artillery would most likely prevent any Russian movements in open areas.

The Germans, however, would have probably prepared enough minefields and field fortifications to force the Russians out of the forests. And once the Russian attack begins, the Germans would unleash a very effective artillery plan based on aerial reconnaissance on the Russians. I'm fairly certain the Germans would also use chemical weapons, if they had any left or retooled chemical plants.

@stevep
Roads and railways are only of strategic importance to the Soviets as they have no or not enough vehicles to utilise roads for the tactical movement of troops (movement on the battlefield). The only way to outflank an enemy is by foot. Also as I already mentioned the Soviets will avoid open areas due to the German artillery.

[historyfool]

Well, Tukhachevsky is in a really bad situation. The best solution would be not fighting at all or fighting a defensive war. Neither is acceptable to his superiors. Therefore he has two choices: Spreading his troops to live from the land and find a weak spot with his superior numbers. But his communications and his recon (and with it his reaction time) are worse than the ones of his opponents. With a well trained and flexible army it could suceed nonethelesss but for the red army of 1920 this calls really for a defeat in detail.
The second option (the choosen one) is to take the shortest route to his objective with concentrated forces. This hampers of course the ability to live from the country. But it is the better solution imo. Under normal circumstances a General of his ability would now pin down the fortificated force with a part of his own army and than go around them, but this isn´t a choice made easily in the Red army.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Franks

@stevep
Roads and railways are only of strategic importance to the Soviets as they have no or not enough vehicles to utilise roads for the tactical movement of troops (movement on the battlefield). The only way to outflank an enemy is by foot. Also as I already mentioned the Soviets will avoid open areas due to the German artillery.

Franks

I think the bulk of your post agrees with mine? The Soviets have reasons for advancing on a wide front and lacking more motorised equipment a single narrow front is of little use and logistically impractical.

Would the Soviets be expecting heavy quantities of artillery from Germany? Apart from their propaganda insisting they would be welcomed as liberators Germany is supposed to have been largely disarmed. Concentration of 1000 artillery units in a single point is a hell of a lot even for WWI western front. Not to mention the degree of preparation they have been allowed.

Also while Berlin is the most logical target I would expect that given the logistical problems the Soviets would also pressurise other targets. E Prussia, now isolated from the rest of Germany, Pomerania to secure a front on the Oder and the flank of the main army and similarly southern Silesia on its other flank. With at least some ability to switch the main focus to any weak points noticed.

Steve

[Adler17]

Steve, normally you're right, but here you have to consider the political implications. And they are dooming Tuchatschewski.

Adler

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Adler17

Steve, normally you're right, but here you have to consider the political implications. And they are dooming Tuchatschewski.

Adler

Adler17

I think I am. This way not only seems to make a lot more military sense but he would be occupying [sorry liberating] more land, which should help keep the commissars off his back.

Steve

[Astronomo2010]

great story, subscribing, i sugest you put this story in a tread with only updates, without coments, like Doragon did with his storyline Star Trek New begining. That way you can update this one, and the other, and the story will be more easy to read without endless pages of coments

[Franks]

The Soviets have reasons for advancing on a wide front and lacking more motorised equipment a single narrow front is of little use and logistically impractical.

Advancing on a wide front is complicated by the fact that there are not enough vehicles to keep these spread out forces supplied - especially with ammuniton and spare parts.

Also the German military - which actually has some trucks available for the tactical and strategic movement of troops - can much more easily build up local superiority and attack into the Russians rear.

Would the Soviets be expecting heavy quantities of artillery from Germany? Apart from their propaganda insisting they would be welcomed as liberators Germany is supposed to have been largely disarmed. Concentration of 1000 artillery units in a single point is a hell of a lot even for WWI western front. Not to mention the degree of preparation they have been allowed.

There were still large quantities of weapons (small arms, artillery) in hidden staches all over the country. Also, as far as I know there were only restrictions on heavy artillery not light artillery. The German forces would most likely be spread out over several kilometers - unfortunately I don't know exactly how large a divisional sector was during WWI, >5km is my best estimate.

Also while Berlin is the most logical target I would expect that given the logistical problems the Soviets would also pressurise other targets. E Prussia, now isolated from the rest of Germany, Pomerania to secure a front on the Oder and the flank of the main army and similarly southern Silesia on its other flank. With at least some ability to switch the main focus to any weak points noticed.

Sure they would put pressure on German forces in these areas, but they'd most likely concentrate on Berlin as the city is not just the German capital but also a major industrial center and transport hub for much of East Germany.

[Adler17]

Indeed the Reichswehr was also limited in the ammount of weapons, not only the kind:

102.000 rifles with 40,8 Mio rounds (1 rifle had 400 rounds)
792 HMG, 1.134 lMG with 15.408.000 rounds (à 8.000 rounds per unit)
63 medium mortars with 25.200 shells (400)
189 light mortars with 151.200 shells (800)
204 7,7 cm guns with 204.000 shells (1.000)
84 10,5 cm howitzer with 67.200 shells (800)

Indeed many material could be hidden. So in 1933 there were indeed these artillery pieces available, coastal guns excluded:

298 7,7 cm FK 16
78 7,7 cm FK 96/16
160? 10 cm Kanone 17
~ 3.000 10,5 cm leFH 16 (at the end of ww2 about 1.500 were still active, while 4.500 of this type and 18 were active)
696 15 cm sFH 13
28 lange 21 cm Mortars
19 28 cm Haubitze
1 42 cm Gamma mortar
28 15 cm Kanone 16

Adler

[trekchu]

These restrictions are ridiculous and must have been impossible to really enforce from the start...

[Adler17]

They were ridiculous and especially the British and Italian supervisors did not "see" some violations they found. So the 42 cm Gamma Mortar was "forgotten" on the test range of Krupp. And so on.
The whole Versailles "treaty" was ridiculous.

Adler

[LOTLOF]

October 1, 1920

In the early dawn the Field Marshal and his staff were once more up in the church tower overlooking the enemy positions. Short of going up in an airplane this was the best possible viewpoint. Russian forces had been arriving on the field all through the previous afternoon and well into the night. They had already dug out a crude trench line opposite of his own. He could observe no Russian field guns and his air scouts confirmed these were still being held miles behind the front. Mackensen expected an attack today but thought it might be delayed until the guns were emplaced. During the battles of the Eastern Front his troops had always had the advantage of firepower against the enemy, even when they were outnumbered two to one or more. Here that advantage looked to be absolute.

There were other reports that concerned him. Both the air scouts and Landwehr units he had out on the flanks reported Russian troops moving north and south of Stentsch. Though the enemy was concentrating in front of him he still had plenty of soldiers to spare. That was the one advantage the Red Army had. The Reichswehr and Landwehr were being quickly expanded, but troops were required on three separate fronts. Here in Brandenburg, in northern Bavaria, and in East Prussia which was now cut off from the rest of Germany. Being outnumbered they would simply have to rely on their advantages of speed and mobility and volume of fire.

Along with his own staff officers was a British military observer. The French and other Allies had declined to send any. The British were keener on seeing just how the fighting here would go. Mackensen had been instructed to treat his guest with the utmost courtesy and to give him as much access as possible. The government was eager to do whatever it could to foster better relations with the British.

“What do you think of our dispositions Captain Montgomery?” The Field Marshal asked through a Major who could speak English.

“The defenses here are impressive without a doubt, especially considering the short amount of time you had for constructing them.” Captain Bernard Montgomery said. “However I think you would have been better served to have launched a spoiling attack and then withdrawn across the river.”

The interpreting Major as well as the other officers present who spoke English all gave the man startled looks. They were amazed at the temerity of a mere Captain giving tactical advice to the Field Marshal.

Hearing the translation Mackensen gave the young British officer a stern look, but replied in a polite tone. “The Russians have concentrated here so we have concentrated as well. This is a strong position and will allow us to inflict a severe beating on them. It allows us to maximize the advantages of fighting on the defensive. We have eight bridges over the river as well as an open road and rail lines. We can move swiftly in response to any changes in their disposition. If they attack us here, on the battlefield of our choosing, I am confident we will triumph.”

“I am sure you will give the Reds a good beating,” Montgomery replied. “I simply think you could have done better.”

“Danke schön.” The Field Marshal said in a dry tone and decided to leave it at that.

The Germans did have some offensive plans in mind, but they would not be seen here.

XXX

Tukhachevsky had little real hope of a breakthrough. Yet if he withdrew without a battle he would be putting himself in real danger of being removed from command and possibly shot. In the Red Army obedience to orders came before all else, and the orders were to take Berlin as quickly as possible. Therefore he would follow his orders by making a strong effort here. That would satisfy the commissars and the high command.

In the meantime he had sent out two divisions to try and locate a crossing point somewhere on the river. He had also decided to not to commit his artillery or to exhaust his precious supply of shells on the upcoming battle. In addition he was husbanding his air assets. He would save them for the crucial moment when they could make the difference. He would not throw them away here.

What he would be throwing away were the lives of a lot of brave young men. He was going to deliberately sacrifice them just to protect himself.

“Nichevo,” he said. “We have plenty of men.” That was the one thing the Red Army had no shortage of.

“What was that comrade Tukhachevsky?” Commissar Kudov asked.

He turned to face the commissar with a confident smile. “I said that we had plenty of men. We will overwhelm the Germans and send them fleeing into the river.”

“I do not doubt it. Our heroic soldiers will certainly overwhelm the servants of the corrupt and decadent capitalist regime” Kudov said enthusiastically.

Tukhachevsky honestly couldn’t tell if the Cheka was just spewing out the proper reply or if he actually believed what he was saying.

“Yes, so let us begin the attack.”

XXX

With a shout the Russian soldiers poured out all along their trench line. The order was to attack all along the front to try and find a weak spot. Then the reserves would be rushed in to expand the initial opening and drive the Germans from their lines.

That was the plan.

The German field guns held off until the initial wave was about halfway across. Then the guns opened up with murderous intensity. Gaps were ripped in the lines as men were torn apart while other sent down screaming. Along with the shells exploding all around them the men started tripping mines. Some were lethal while most simply took off a foot or mangles a leg. With their comrades going down all around them the human wave staggered and slowed but did not stop. Bent over the men kept running forward towards the wire.

The German batteries had been well ranged and so did not bring their shells in too close to their own front lines. Thus the soldiers to get that far escaped the worst of the shelling. Now came the stutter of machine gun fire as well at the steady cracks of rifles. All along the front the Germans opened up with their small arms at the Russians were packed in against the thick coils of barbed wire.

The Russian advance came to a dead stop right at the perimeter. The men got down on their bellies as anyone standing was quickly mowed down. Whole companies that had the bad fortune to be marching straight towards a machine gun emplacement were slaughtered before even getting within a hundred yards of the wire. The gun fire went on and on and on as the Reichswehr troops gladly butchered the trapped Russians.

The Red Army men shot back from the other side of the barbed wire until their ammunition was gone. They had no tools for cutting wire so men tried desperately with their bayonets. It was an act of utter futility. Others took out shovels or dug in with knife and bare hands. All the while the machine guns raked them leading to fresh screams and cries of pain.

XXX

Up in the church tower Captain Montgomery gave his opinion. “It’s even worse than the Somme.”

When that was translated the Field Marshal asked, “We’re you at the Somme Captain?”

“I was.” Captain Montgomery said grimly. “I’m not ashamed to admit that it was a bloody disaster for us.

Mackenesen nodded. “I was in Poland at the time, but you see now why we concentrated here?”

The captain smiled ruefully. “I do admit it looks like the right decision.” Oddly the tone was that of a man granting a large concession.

XXX

On the other side Tukhachevsky was also looking over the battlefield from a camouflaged outpost. He could clearly see that his troops had made no progress at all in breaking through the enemy lines.

“Send in the next wave,” he ordered. “We’ll concentrate them on the center of the line; we seem to be doing best there.”

More men went up over the top to run the gauntlet of exploding shells and mines. When the survivors reached the edge of the wire they provided more massed targets for the German machine gunners and riflemen. They had no better luck at getting through the barbed wire.

The attack went on for four hours as wave after wave of Russian troops stormed forward. Nowhere were the German defenses ever breached or even seriously threatened. When the attack was finally called off and the survivors had made it back to their own trenches the Warsaw Army had suffered over 64,000 casualties including more than 23,000 killed.

All in the space of just one morning.

Total German losses had amounted to 2,344 men of which 720 had been killed. That meant they had inflicted a casualty ratio of about twenty seven to one. It was indeed a greater massacre than the Somme and easily eclipsed even Tannenberg. The German papers would declare it the greatest victory ever won by a German army. It electrified the country and filled people with the certainty that the Russians were beaten and there was no more need to fear invasion from the east.

While it was without a doubt a glorious victory and had inflicted heavy losses on the enemy the Warsaw Army was not defeated yet.

And the invasion was not over.

[stubear1012]

This is an excellent post and I am looking forward to more.

Stubear1012