How would Germany fare in a Defensive War?

[SpazzReflex]

Actually two questions:

1) Could Imperial Germany have won a defensive war if Russia and France launched a preemptive strike?

2) If the French pushed the Saarland Offensive, how would Nazi Germany fare?

[LOTLOF]

As to the first question do you mean pre September 1, 1939? Assuming no Ribbentrop Pact and Poland also joining in?

[SpazzReflex]

Originally Posted by LOTLOF

As to the first question do you mean pre September 1, 1939? Assuming no Ribbentrop Pact and Poland also joining in?

The (1) question is about WWI, and (2) is WWII.

[galveston bay]

Originally Posted by WienerBlut

The (1) question is about WWI, and (2) is WWII.

In World War I? Considering the long mobilization times for Russia, the Germans will have plenty of warning. They will repulse the French just like they did historically in Alsace Lorraine, and then it depends if they drop the Schleffien Plan.

If they drop it, they remain on the defense in the West, and then beat the hell out of the Russians in Poland. But it won't be a short war. It would take at least 2-3 years to beat down both the French and the Russians and get a peace. No invasion of Belgium, and the Franco-Russians being aggressors, and then we have no British involvement. Which means no blockade, and Germany can buy all it needs on the World Market.

If the Germans go with the Schleffien Plan, then the British get dragged into the war on the French side, with likely historical results although American entry is now much less likely and more difficult (as the Allies started it instead of the perception and reality of the Germans starting it by invading Belgium).

[Germaniac]

Well Russia did launch a preemptive attack at Tannenberg and Masurian Lakes. Both were devastating battles for the Russians. Germany had always planned for a defensive war in the east and an offensive war in the west. The Germans have to fight offensively on at least one front, it would be impractical not to. The Plan was for a quick war in the West and then move onto the east.

However the Russian Offensive in 1914 quickly collapsed and the russians were forced to devote more attention to the east. If they had gone on the defensive in the west the British would not have joined the war and the French would have destroyed their army throwing it across the border into A-L. I would venture to say without a second thought that the French won't reach the Rhine before the Germans push them back and keep pushing them back. France simply didn't have the artillery and manpower to win an offensive war with the germans. Think a much larger and much more destructive battle of the frontiers.

If the French had pushed the offensive in 1939 its likely that Germany would not be able to halt it before the rhine. The West was weakly defended and Germany was in no way prepared to fight a major two front war before 1941.

[Germaniac]

Originally Posted by galveston bay

Which means no blockade, and Germany can buy all it needs on the World Market.

Could this lead to the French developing a large submarine force to stop the goods coming into germany? This could force the Americans to take an anti-French position.

[galveston bay]

Originally Posted by Germaniac

Could this lead to the French developing a large submarine force to stop the goods coming into germany? This could force the Americans to take an anti-French position.

not to mention the British, who would have not been amused either

[Germaniac]

Originally Posted by galveston bay

not to mention the British, who would have not been amused either

But in this scenario the British are not involved. Likely they will take an anti german stance simply because this war WILL change the balance of power in Europe. France will have lost two major conflicts within half a century, and Germany will happily become the Continental hegemonic power. However, I doubt as the casualties in this first French offensive mount the British People will be even less inclined to allow their men to fill in the gaps left by dying french soldiers.

[galveston bay]

Originally Posted by Germaniac

But in this scenario the British are not involved. Likely they will take an anti german stance simply because this war WILL change the balance of power in Europe. France will have lost two major conflicts within half a century, and Germany will happily become the Continental hegemonic power. However, I doubt as the casualties in this first French offensive mount the British People will be even less inclined to allow their men to fill in the gaps left by dying french soldiers.

if the French conduct unrestricted submarine warfare in the North Sea they are bound to sink neutral ships, and the British have the largest merchant marine in the world. Accidents are certain in this situation, and this will annoy the British to no end, possibly to the point of action if the French continued. That action could simply be economic, or political, or both or even military depending on the scale and the type of incidents.

[chris N]

I would suppose that if we look at 1939 and agressive push by the French into the Saar would be opposed by German troops that were mainly older and poorer equipped. It would be a struggle for the Germans to come anywhere close to containing the French. In fact the Germans might very well be forced to withdraw units from Poland to prevent a French push to the Rhine.

[Ziggs180]

Scenario 1, Germany might do much better if they go with a Russia First policy. If they drop the Schffelin plan, and just let the French zerg rush and destroy themselves attacking the narrow portion between France and germany.

Scenario 2, if the french and british pushed into Germany, Nazi Germany would be incredibly screwed, or at the very least, the War in the West would last much longer.

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by galveston bay

if the French conduct unrestricted submarine warfare in the North Sea they are bound to sink neutral ships, and the British have the largest merchant marine in the world. Accidents are certain in this situation, and this will annoy the British to no end, possibly to the point of action if the French continued. That action could simply be economic, or political, or both or even military depending on the scale and the type of incidents.

The French wouldn't conduct unrestricted submarine warfare in the North Sea since they are also dependent upon maritime trade. They will speak with the British and try to work out an agreement.

[galveston bay]

Originally Posted by David S Poepoe

The French wouldn't conduct unrestricted submarine warfare in the North Sea since they are also dependent upon maritime trade. They will speak with the British and try to work out an agreement.

then they have little hope of cutting off German trade via the North Sea. German World War I era cruisers are also generally better than the French ones, and definitely the dreadnoughts and battlecruisers are superior. Cruiser actions in the Atlantic will be decidedly in German favor, as will likely cruiser actions elsewhere around the world. The Germans are a land power, but their 1914 navy is superior to the French one.

[Snowstalker]

The French and Russians starting it means that Britain stays out, at least at first, and Italy and Austria are both in. In addition, the Balkan states are neutral but likely pro-Russian. The Central Powers would win easily.

[Riain]

As it happened the Germans held up the Russians with one army and the French with three, what do they do with the other four armies? They can't be used against France because there isn't the room without extending the front into Belgium, so I suppose they'll be used in a massive counter-offensive in Russian-Poland.

[KyleB]

Originally Posted by galveston bay

then they have little hope of cutting off German trade via the North Sea. German World War I era cruisers are also generally better than the French ones, and definitely the dreadnoughts and battlecruisers are superior. Cruiser actions in the Atlantic will be decidedly in German favor, as will likely cruiser actions elsewhere around the world. The Germans are a land power, but their 1914 navy is superior to the French one.

But the British navy would help them, right? So even if the French were unable to counter the German High Seas Fleet, the RN would come and tip the scales in their favor.

[EWHM]

The British Navy won't intervene in a scrap between the German and French navies unless the UK declares war. They are likely to insist that both parties refrain from fighting too close to their shores though.

[Germaniac]

Originally Posted by EWHM

The British Navy won't intervene in a scrap between the German and French navies unless the UK declares war. They are likely to insist that both parties refrain from fighting too close to their shores though.

Let's say after the French offensives in A-L are held back, and likely thrown into a meat grinder worse than some of the bloodiest of battles, the Germans begin an offensive into France (lets say sometime in 1915 giving them some time to launch some offensives in Russia) as they Push farther into France they turn north to the Channel ports, In unision the KM moves into the channel to engage the French northern fleet. What will the British do with German warships in the channel.

[Deckhand]

Blow the German Navy out of the water.

[EWHM]

The UK wasn't ruled by a bunch of idiots. They'd probably have declared a naval exclusion zone in the channel to both sides---i.e, anybody moving warships through here except by very limited prior arrangement constitutes an act of war. Then if the Germans violate it, they'd protest and/or declare war. French violations are more likely to get protests than war. They're unlikely to play gotcha with a charnel house of a war like WWI. They might well decide that having everyone else wreck their navies would be a good thing for the British Empire, especially if they could persuade the Germans and French to sell them some of their colonies instead of taking quite so many loans.