Britain and the USSR v Germany, Italy and Japan

[HarryH]

The situation is this.

History is as normal up to December 1941 but then Japan doesn’t attack Pearl Harbour or the Philippines.
Instead its attacks or only against British Empire territory and The Dutch East Indies.
FDR fails to get a declaration of war against Japan and he will not get one for the rest of the war.

What will Japan do next?
Are the invasions of Australia, India, New Zealand, Madagascar, USSR etc possible or likely?
How will they effect the British war effort?
Can the USSR and the British Empire still win the war?

[sharlin]

The US getting involved was inevitable IMO, the USN was seen as the main threat to any Japanese advance into the far east so taking out the USN was the logical choice. Also in the atlantic the War was getting closer and closer thanks to Teddy's orders to provide escort out into the atlantic for convoys and the fact that U-Boats were firing on USN warships and US freighters.

If thanks to ASB's the USN does not get involved, they would still keep up lend lease. The Japanese would not advance against the Russians, they still bore the boot mark on their face from the Mongolia skirmishes. The IJA was totally outclassed in terms of equipment by the Soviets and would have not made much of an impact.

[HarryH]

The US getting involved was inevitable IMO, the USN was seen as the main threat to any Japanese advance into the far east so taking out the USN was the logical choice. Also in the atlantic the War was getting closer and closer thanks to Teddy's orders to provide escort out into the atlantic for convoys and the fact that U-Boats were firing on USN warships and US freighters.

I agree but the senario here is the USA stays out so we can investigate what would have happened.

If thanks to ASB's the USN does not get involved, they would still keep up lend lease. The Japanese would not advance against the Russians, they still bore the boot mark on their face from the Mongolia skirmishes. The IJA was totally outclassed in terms of equipment by the Soviets and would have not made much of an impact.

So where next do you think Japan would turn?

[Gridley]

Originally Posted by HarryH

The situation is this.

History is as normal up to December 1941 but then Japan doesn’t attack Pearl Harbour or the Philippines.
Instead its attacks or only against British Empire territory and The Dutch East Indies.
FDR fails to get a declaration of war against Japan and he will not get one for the rest of the war.

This has been discussed to death, and while the opinion is not universally held I agree with, I think, the majority view that this is pushing ASB territory.

What will Japan do next?
Are the invasions of Australia, India, New Zealand, Madagascar, USSR etc possible or likely?

Not with a PoD in 1941. Japan was stretched to the limit and a little beyond IOTL. There just weren't enough ships to move enough troops far enough forward and keep them supplied to take most of these. The USSR handed the Japanese their head IOTL both before and after Dec 1941 when they met on the ground, and nothing improved for the Japanese in between. India was simply too big - the Japanese couldn't even hold down the parts of China they held outside the cities and rail lines; how are they going to hold down ANOTHER half a billion people?

How will they effect the British war effort?
Can the USSR and the British Empire still win the war?

The Brits can easily defend India (OK, the Indians can defend India with a little help from the Brits), and can live without Hong Kong and Singapore for a few years. Japan can't hold her mainland possessions against the USSR once they're done with Germany, and will have a tough time holding her maritime possessions against the ANZACs once they're done with Germany.

And, as noted above, the US is going to get involved sooner or later.

[sharlin]

I'd say they would not advance further than they really did. They would secure their holdings in the far east whilst trying to reduce/Seige Singapore etc. The British could rush forces that originally went to the desert campaign to the far east which would make things much more dicey for the IJA on the ground.

If the Japanese did have a case of the howling crazies and went after Russia, you've got an undisturbed Soviet armed forces who would have been looking nervously at the Germans but would have had forces more than capable of curb stomping the Japanese. Japan's strength at sea would avail them of little in the end.

At sea the RN's got the KGV and POW coming online soon, the Germans are not that much of a threat in reality, a nuicanse, yes, but threat, no. If France collapses and I assume it will as it often does, i've yet to read a TL where france does well against the Nazi's apart from the old France Fights On storyline on another forum then the Brits would be in a pickle, but they would still be strong enough at home to survive the Battle of Britian i'd say and if they loose some old battleships, then oh well...we're building more, same for carriers.

And if the Japs do go after russia then that could lead to interesting developments when the German's go for the Soviets. As the Soviets stripped the far east when Barbarossa began because they were sure (not wrong either) that the Japs would leave them alone.

[LOTLOF]

Assuming Japan is at war with China, the Dutch, and the British Empire and neutral toward the Soviet Union. Assuming the United States provides Lend Lease but is otherwise neutral for the duration of the war.

In the Pacific the Japanese will run wild. The British simply do not have the man power or resources to spare while trying to hold on to Egypt. Burma, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, New Zealand and New Guinea all fall. Perhaps by 1943 there might have even been landings on the eastern coast of Australia, though more likely it would have simpy had its shipping lanes cut off. Given its experiences in China the IJA was not going to try and conquer a whole continent.

The IJN drives the Royal Navy out of the Indian Ocean and back to the Med. An attempted land invasion of India accomplishes little. The terrain and environment are simply too hostile and the logistics too difficult.Though India is out of reach all the rest is firmly in Japanese hands and unlikely to ever be taken away from them. The Co-Properity Sphere is a reality.

In North Africa the war goes back and forth.

Eigth Army is built up under Montgomery and has a permanent numerical advantage from 1942 on thanks to British soldiers and American equipment. For the British Egypt and the Suez are a life line. For Hitler and the Germans the desert is always a secondary front. The different level of priority shows in the amount of resources each side expends there.

HOWEVER for political reasons Hitler will not permist a total defeat in the theater. Though never enough, Rommel will get sufficient reenforcement from both Germany and Italy to at the very least hold a line in Tunisia. In original time line Hitler sent over a quarter of a million Axis reenforcements to Africa following the Torch landings. It seems quite reasonable to assume he would give Rommel enough German equipment and Italian soldiers to at least maintain the front.

The key difference is on the eastern front.

Following Stalingrad a German victory is no longer possible, but a negotiated peace is. Without US troops the British cannot hope to reconquer Europe. They may attempt landings in northern Norway, Crete, Sardinia, or some other point at the edge of German power. But France, the road to Berlin, is still closed to them. There is no second front in Europe.

The Red Army is still strong enough to begin driving back the Wehrmacht but it is happening more slowly and at an even more murderous cost than in our time line. Churchill promises help to keep Stalin in the fight and does perhaps carry out a few raids and minor landings, but simply does not have the resources to create a second front. Always suspicious Stalin views this as a deliberate attempt by the capitalists to stand aside as he and Hitler exhaust each other.

By June 1945 the Russians are just now approaching the old border. (With no US Eigth Air Force Germany has suffered less bomb damage. Italy is still an Axis partner rather than conquered territory. All of Vichy France is supplying Germany with badly needed industrial and agricultural goods. With no real prospect of liberation many more in France and elsewhere choose to accept Hitler as still a better option than Stalin. Dozens of 'volunteer' regiments are recruited and sent to the eastern front to fight against communism and make up for German losses. All of which means a stronger economy and eastern army.) In this time line the Russians have lost over twenty five million dead soldier and civilian and the Germans are still fighting hard and there is no reason to expect them to suddenly collapse now that they will soon be defending their own home soil.

For the Germans the past two years have been nothing but an endless series of desperate battles and fighting retreats. They have inflicted horrendous casualties and devastated the land as they were pushed back. They have launched huge counter attacks as at Kursk and have won some victories; but at no point have they been able to halt the tide. German wonder weapons are starting to come on line. V-1 and V-2 rockets pound Leningrad and Kiev. Tiger tanks and He 262s bite hard and take a toll. Even so... very soon they will face the prospect of Russian soldiers on German soil. Hitler is forced to consider the grim possibility of total defeat.

Stalin faces years of more hard fighting against a fanatical and technologically superior enemy. He also sees the possibility of a Western attack the moment his country is completely exhausted.

Given this situation a negotiated settlement seems like a real possibility as both sides are exhausted and neither is on the verge of victory. A peace treaty is signed restoring the borders of June 22, 1941.

Both sides claim victory.

With Russia out of the war and the US unwilling to enter it Churchill is eventually removed from power and Britain makes peace on the best terms they can.

Germany is left the strongest nation in an exhausted and bombed out Europe.

The Soviet Union has survived but at a terrible cost and has no allies.

The British survive and still possess Egypt and India (for now) but are forced to yield back the Italian colonies in Africa and surrender all the territories lost to Japan. The mighty empire is bankrupt and entering a period of political chaos.

Of all the belligerents the Japanese have done the best for themselves. They have conquered a Pacific empire at very little cost. For them the future seems boundless.

[sharlin]

Just a point, the IJA could not have invaded Australia or New Zealand. There simply wasnt enough men to do so. Nor the shipping. the IJA and IJN HATED each other, the did not co-operate, plan or work together unless they really had to.

[HarryH]

Originally Posted by sharlin

Just a point, the IJA could not have invaded Australia or New Zealand. There simply wasnt enough men to do so. Nor the shipping. the IJA and IJN HATED each other, the did not co-operate, plan or work together unless they really had to.

The shipping and men were available for the conquest of New Zealand but the logistical support for Australia may well be to great.
Operations in China would have to be suspended and eliments of the Kwantung army used for any Australian effort.

[sharlin]

They would not have to use some men from China, they'd have to strip it bare as well as other forces from other conquests. Invading NZ or Aus is a pipe dream like invading Hawiaha...Pear Harbour.

[HarryH]

I agree with a lot of that LOTLOF but I think once most the Pacific Islands you list are conquered at some point in 1943 the Japanese could try one of two things.
Occupation of Northern Australia which would put them up against some very strong forces and into another potential un winnable continental struggle or go with seaborne invasions of Ceylon and Bengal which would be very difficult in themselves.
The British would have to concentrate as much of their naval power as possible in the Indian Ocean without risking the Atlantic convoys in order to keep its forces supplied in Egypt, India and Australia.

[HarryH]

Originally Posted by sharlin

They would not have to use some men from China, they'd have to strip it bare as well as other forces from other conquests. Invading NZ or Aus is a pipe dream like invading Hawiaha...Pear Harbour.

In 1941, the Imperial Japanese Army had 51 divisions and various special-purpose artillery, cavalry, anti-aircraft and armored units with a total of 1,700,000 men. At the beginning of the Second World War most of the Japanese Army was stationed in China, where 27 divisions were stationed. A further 13 divisions were tasked with defending the Mongolian border, due to concerns about a possible attack by the Soviet Union. However, from 1942 soldiers were sent to Hong Kong (23rd Army), the Philippines (14th Army), Thailand (15th Army), Burma (15th Army), Dutch East Indies (16th Army) and Malaya (25th Army).By 1945, there were 5.5 million men in the Imperial Japanese Army.

As you can see the manpower is there.
The problem is supplying it when you get it some where.

[LOTLOF]

For the Japanese China was always the greatest prize. The problem there though was that no matter how many battles they won they could never compel the Chinese to make peace and never had the manpower to occupy the whole country.

I would not see landings in Australia as an attmept at conquest but only as a way to keep them from mounting any sort of effort against Japan. If the army was not interested cutting off the shipping lanes and keeping the Australians isolated would work just as well. They did not have enough population of industry to be a threat without outside aid.

[Gridley]

Originally Posted by HarryH

As you can see the manpower is there.
The problem is supplying it when you get it some where.

Not to mention getting it there in the first place. Are a couple of divisions going to swim from Truk to New Zealand? For that matter, are they going to swim from Tokyo to Truk? Carrying their rifles, mortars, artillery...

What happens when the US starts sending S-boats or even Gatos to Australia as lend-lease? The RN, Dutch, RAN and RNZN between them could man a large sub fleet and choke the Japanese to death.

[M79]

Without US lend-lease the USSR is going to be unable to take much more than the original RSFSR territory, Germany will likely keep the Ukraine, Belarus, Balkans, Baltic states, and perhaps more. Without support from American bombers they are also likely to have greater success maintaining their industry and probably able to bring synthetic oil facilities online. With more industrial capacity intact and the development of assault rifles, tactics, newer tanks, and new aircraft, I think the Germans might be able to win a line in the East similar to Brest-Litovsk in mid-late 1945. Millions die, millions more are homeless, and the Germans are left in charge of the most powerful state on the planet. But after all is said and done Germany survives and thrives, with rumors of war crimes and pockets of resistance persisting well into the late 20th century.

Italy is certainly a junior partner but still does well, taking Tunisia, southeastern France, and most of the eastern Adriatic. It develops into a market for German goods, a refuge for escaping political refugees, and perhaps the most "free" state in the Nazi orbit. Its navy becomes the pride of Europe, especially as the British leave it disproportionately intact.

Japan develops into a new powerhouse, taking its historical conquests along with China (1943), New Zealand (1944), Madagascar (1944), Western Australia and the Northern Territory (1945), Ceylon (1945), Tibet (1945), and Mongolia (1945). Russia is so badly defeated and drained in 1945 that it refuses to defend its Mongolian satellite and the Japanese seriously consider relieveing them of Central Asia and Siberia but still fear the Russian bear. Its industries quickly expand and make it the most powerful naval player on Earth with its new Shinano class carriers, transitioning after the brutal loss of two Yamato-class battleships to aircraft at the Battle of Botany Bay in 1944. Australia fights hard but had already planned a retreat to a defensive perimeter in New South Wales and Victoria, though Queensland was never entirely evacuated. India remains British only for another two years but soon becomes an economic partner of Tokyo, as does Persia and a sizable portion of eastern Africa after decolonization in the late 40s/early 50s. Technology here advances quickly and soon Japanese consumer products are 5 years ahead of almost anyone else while military technology is ahead by another decade.

Russia survives with its industries intact and a breadbasket in Khazakstan but with almost 1.3 of its population missing. Stalin dies around the same time and the Russians are consumed with irredentalism even after Germany tests an atomic weapon in 1948. Germany does not attack Russia but leaves it to its fate, a mistake in the years to come as Russians have an average family size of 6 and develop very sturdy though rudimentary equipment functionally equal to those of powers 20 years ahead of themselves.

The USA remains isolationist and stagnates, and though it gets a serious boost from the immigrant refugees who flee there the best minds are unable to alert the populace to the potential danger of German and Japanese imperialism. What changes their minds is the Space Race between Japan (first satellite, 1953) and Germany (first man in space, 1955), allowing the Americans to advance radically and put the first man on Mars in 1969 after just missing the chance to beat Germany to the moon in 1962. Otherwise overall technology remains about 5-10 years behind OTL with a gap that slowly resolves as time goes by. The South African War in the 1960s becomes a drain for Germany, USA, and Japan with veterans sharing their common experiences and forming the basis for a peaceful co-existance later in the 20th century - the desire to avoid another continent-scale war does that for the generation before.

The UK is decimated with the loss of most of her colonies after the war, especially India. She grows closer to the USA and Latin America, forming a series of more equal and profitable alliances with help lent to the Americans to help close her technological gap with the rest of the world. She is a junior partner with the USA but on more of an equal pairing with Washington than Rome is to Berlin.

[HarryH]

Originally Posted by Gridley

Not to mention getting it there in the first place. Are a couple of divisions going to swim from Truk to New Zealand? For that matter, are they going to swim from Tokyo to Truk? Carrying their rifles, mortars, artillery...

What happens when the US starts sending S-boats or even Gatos to Australia as lend-lease? The RN, Dutch, RAN and RNZN between them could man a large sub fleet and choke the Japanese to death.

From what ive read the Japanese can land three to four divisions at a time at best with the shipping they have available.
An invasion of New Zealands closest bases of support would be Fiji or New Caladonia which the Japanese would be able to take without US naval opposition.

[SirAshfordFanrico]

One of the most interesting aspects for me, with this ATL concept, would be how such things would transpire for the US. I'm of the mindset that guys like FDR wouldn't just stick to the sidelines and allow such dickheads like Hitler to run rampant. He'd have to think of something, or try to do something, that would bring the US into this or get the majority of Americans to agree to enter this war. Just the idea, the perspective of an FDR watching the rest of the world go to hell sounds like an interesting concept.

Would make for an interesting timeline/story for any possible outcome. What transpires that keeps the US out of the war?? Does FDR die early? Does the Isolationist Movement win more political support??? Does someone like Charles Lindbergh or Joe Kennedy run for president??? The possibilities are endless.

And conversely, what could possibly bring the US INTO the war without a Pearl Harbor incident???

[HarryH]

Would make for an interesting timeline/story for any possible outcome. What transpires that keeps the US out of the war?? Does FDR die early? Does the Isolationist Movement win more political support??? Does someone like Charles Lindbergh or Joe Kennedy run for president??? The possibilities are endless.

It could be any of these to achieve this alternate history.

[HarryH]

A Midway style naval battle between the British and Japanese in the Indian Ocean in 1943 would be very interesting.
Who does everyone think would win?

[stevep]

Originally Posted by HarryH

A Midway style naval battle between the British and Japanese in the Indian Ocean in 1943 would be very interesting.
Who does everyone think would win?

HarryH

A lot would depend on what had gone before and luck but the Japanese, if they haven't made too much of a mess of things should have the edge. The RN doesn't have the same carrier power and is too thinly stretched with everything going on. However, get a sub or two or some land based air in the right place and the Japanese could lose very badly.

By this however I mean their more likely to win a operational or battle victory, doing the most damage. Provided that India doesn't go insane and let the Japanese in, then it's difficult to see the Japanese having the strength and logistics to achieve any lasting successes in the Indian Ocean, especially with all their other problems. The danger would be that they cause enough disruption in the Indian Ocean to do too much damage to the British situation in Egypt, although here the Germans have equally bad logistical problems.

Steve

[Gridley]

Originally Posted by HarryH

From what ive read the Japanese can land three to four divisions at a time at best with the shipping they have available.
An invasion of New Zealands closest bases of support would be Fiji or New Caladonia which the Japanese would be able to take without US naval opposition.

The ability to lift three divisions a few hundred miles by sea does not equate to the ability to lift three divisions a few thousand miles by sea.

They can't teleport to New Caledonia. The Japanese force that took Singapore was down to its last days of food.