Challenge - Make Bulgaria the true Prussia of the Balkans

Bulgaria before world war one was often described as the Prussia of the Balkans. While its true that they were probebly more powerful then any of the smaller Balkan states, they never enjoyed the success that Prussia did.

So the challenge is to get Bulgaria to realise most of its territorial ambitions in the early 20th century, and get it acknowledged as the premier power in the Balkans by the European great powers. POD is 1900.

Nassirisimo said:

Bulgaria before world war one was often described as the Prussia of the Balkans. While its true that they were probebly more powerful then any of the smaller Balkan states, they never enjoyed the success that Prussia did.

So the challenge is to get Bulgaria to realise most of its territorial ambitions in the early 20th century, and get it acknowledged as the premier power in the Balkans by the European great powers. POD is 1900.

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im not an expert in the balkans... but I'm thinking a central powers victory in ww1 which includes the smashing and destruction of the salonika army... i would assume the bulgars get some hefty greek territory in return; plus some elements of souther romania

Yeah Bulgaria will benefit big time territorially in a Central Powers victory if Serbia, Rumania and Greece all aided the Allies.

The toughest issue would be creating a situation where the Bulgarians finally conquer Thrace.

Having the Treaty of San Stefano come into force could certainly help, though that wouldn't be easy to manage. Would give Bulgaria some much-expanded borders, though, and put them in a stronger position for future expansion.



Changing/avoiding the Second Balkan War could also work as a PoD, since pretty much the entire point of said war was to knock Bulgaria down a couple pegs.

Chengar Qordath said:

Having the Treaty of San Stefano come into force could certainly help, though that wouldn't be easy to manage.

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Good God... I never realised how large Bulgaria would become if that treaty had been implemented! Personally I always wanted General Sherman to become King Sherman, ala the Flashman series. Seriously they require an astute foreign policy, as they are at the intersection of three great powers with the Germans, Russians and the Turks. Hence diplomatic relations must be maintained with a strong army. A Bulgarian Bismarck perhaps?

Chengar Qordath said:

Changing/avoiding the Second Balkan War could also work as a PoD, since pretty much the entire point of said war was to knock Bulgaria down a couple pegs.

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I always thought that the Second Balkan war was started by the Bulgarians, in order to gain the mostly Bulgarian speaking lands of Macedonia. Apparently, they thought they could handle the Greeks and Serbs by themselves, but they were proved wrong. They also didn't count on the Turks doing anything either.

BlairWitch749 said:

im not an expert in the balkans... but I'm thinking a central powers victory in ww1 which includes the smashing and destruction of the salonika army... i would assume the bulgars get some hefty greek territory in return; plus some elements of souther romania

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They would want the southern part of what was then Serbia too, specifically, today's FYROM and the Torlak areas.

La Rouge Beret said:

Good God... I never realised how large Bulgaria would become if that treaty had been implemented! Personally I always wanted General Sherman to become King Sherman, ala the Flashman series. Seriously they require an astute foreign policy, as they are at the intersection of three great powers with the Germans, Russians and the Turks. Hence diplomatic relations must be maintained with a strong army. A Bulgarian Bismarck perhaps?

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Some bits of that border wouldn't quite be possible, but they're rather insignificant (Western Trace, and parts of Albania, which was more or less an Austrian dependency at the time) but yeah. Plus they'd be compensated by a few Torlak areas in Serbia.


However, while it looks big, It's only a slight population increase; iirc it doesn't quite double the population of Bulgaria.

Know Nothing said:

Yeah Bulgaria will benefit big time territorially in a Central Powers victory if Serbia, Rumania and Greece all aided the Allies.

The toughest issue would be creating a situation where the Bulgarians finally conquer Thrace.

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Bulgaria has most of Thrace in OTL.

archaeogeek said:

Some bits of that border wouldn't quite be possible, but they're rather insignificant (Western Trace, and parts of Albania, which was more or less an Austrian dependency at the time) but yeah. Plus they'd be compensated by a few Torlak areas in Serbia.


However, while it looks big, It's only a slight population increase; iirc it doesn't quite double the population of Bulgaria.

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Yes, the area has about 11 million in OTL and probably up to 13 million before Bulgaria's population declined.
As for Western Thrace, San Stefano Bulgaria did not include any part of Western Thrace. The part in Eastern Thrace was the Strandzha mountain, which at the time was mostly Bulgarian, so at least from this perspective keeping it seems plausible.

BlairWitch749 said:

im not an expert in the balkans... but I'm thinking a central powers victory in ww1 which includes the smashing and destruction of the salonika army... i would assume the bulgars get some hefty greek territory in return; plus some elements of souther romania

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Here's what Bulgaria controlled during WWI:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/WWI_BG_MAP.jpg
Of course, large parts of it were occupied territory, but that's what the Bulgarian leadership wanted.

Know Nothing said:

Yeah Bulgaria will benefit big time territorially in a Central Powers victory if Serbia, Rumania and Greece all aided the Allies.

The toughest issue would be creating a situation where the Bulgarians finally conquer Thrace.

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Know Nothing

Alternatively have a 1914/15 POD. A slightly better organised Gallipoli campaign plus approaches to Bulgaria has it side with the allies, or at least declare war on Turkey. [The monarchy and many politicians were biased towards Germany but some argued for joining the entente powers].

This helps force the Turks to concede E Thrace, most [barring the straits themselves] going to Bulgaria. Germany and Austria might declare war on Bulgaria but can't get to it without going through someone else.

Bulgarian entry also triggers Greek entry on the allied side as they don't want to lose out or be isolated. This enables allied forces/supplies to reach Serbia, which along with the fact Bulgaria isn't attacking it's eastern border means it survives.

At the end of the war, which is probably 1816/17 at latest Serbia becomes Yugoslavia but it's heartland is exhausted after several years of war and the new northern territories are deeply hostile to coming under Serb control. Bulgaria has secured it's SE flank and has received military and economic aid from the allies [part of their price for joining the conflict]. Therefore in a subsequent conflict, aided by Croatian and Bosnian Bulgaria easily defeats an exhausted Serbia and grabs the territories it feels belongs to it.

This leaves the areas it disputes with Greece and that lost to Romania in 1913. Not sure about the latter but possibly also a war with Greece which is long a conflict with the Turks in Anatolia.

It needs some luck but is possible. What is more difficult is probably holding all this territory afterwards, with so many disgruntled neighbours.

Steve

stevep said:

Know Nothing

Alternatively have a 1914/15 POD. A slightly better organised Gallipoli campaign plus approaches to Bulgaria has it side with the allies, or at least declare war on Turkey. [The monarchy and many politicians were biased towards Germany but some argued for joining the entente powers].

This helps force the Turks to concede E Thrace, most [barring the straits themselves] going to Bulgaria. Germany and Austria might declare war on Bulgaria but can't get to it without going through someone else.

Bulgarian entry also triggers Greek entry on the allied side as they don't want to lose out or be isolated. This enables allied forces/supplies to reach Serbia, which along with the fact Bulgaria isn't attacking it's eastern border means it survives.

At the end of the war, which is probably 1816/17 at latest Serbia becomes Yugoslavia but it's heartland is exhausted after several years of war and the new northern territories are deeply hostile to coming under Serb control. Bulgaria has secured it's SE flank and has received military and economic aid from the allies [part of their price for joining the conflict]. Therefore in a subsequent conflict, aided by Croatian and Bosnian Bulgaria easily defeats an exhausted Serbia and grabs the territories it feels belongs to it.

This leaves the areas it disputes with Greece and that lost to Romania in 1913. Not sure about the latter but possibly also a war with Greece which is long a conflict with the Turks in Anatolia.

It needs some luck but is possible. What is more difficult is probably holding all this territory afterwards, with so many disgruntled neighbours.

Steve

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The Entente tried to get Bulgaria on its side with the promise of Eastern Thrace and that they would try to persuade Serbia to give part of Macedonia to Bulgaria. Serbia refused, which made this option unpopular. Of course, if the Bulgarian government thought that the Entente would lose the war, it would certainly be possible, but the situation in 1915 was not that favorable to the allies.

As for Greece, I think that even in OTL the Greeks offered some territory to Bulgaria under the condition of Bulgaria joining the war against Turkey. In ATL such approaches would probably be far more serious. It's also possible there never would be a war with Turkey, as even the Greek leadership at the time wouldn't be likely to start a protracted war with a vengeful neighbor in the north.

I don't see any way to get the Bulgarians in the Entente and have them fight the Ottomans. The Ottomans entered the war because they were sure that Bulgaria was going to be on the same side, or at least a neutral favoring the CPs.

TyranicusMaximus said:

I don't see any way to get the Bulgarians in the Entente and have them fight the Ottomans. The Ottomans entered the war because they were sure that Bulgaria was going to be on the same side, or at least a neutral favoring the CPs.

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The post above show a good way to do this. If the Central Powers seem too weak, it's quite possible.

Dementor

Interesting. I would understand the allies trying to get Serbia to make concessions and it refusing. Never heard of Greece making an offer and given the division in Greece between PM and king not sure how that would have worked. Do you know when this was?

I was thinking that a slightly more successful Gallipoli coupled with a big diplomatic push form Bulgaria, because they realise they need it's army to secure victory in Thrace. Both offering them the province, plus extensive military and economic aid plus possibly a subtle hint that if Bulgaria pushed the issue against an exhausted Serbia after the war the allies would give implicit support or at least not oppose them. Something I've played around with for a TL that sees WWI go different. Basically getting Bulgaria on the allied side there and then would be decisive in ensuring [barring extreme incompetence by the allies] an allied victory.

Steve

Dementor said:

The Entente tried to get Bulgaria on its side with the promise of Eastern Thrace and that they would try to persuade Serbia to give part of Macedonia to Bulgaria. Serbia refused, which made this option unpopular. Of course, if the Bulgarian government thought that the Entente would lose the war, it would certainly be possible, but the situation in 1915 was not that favorable to the allies.

As for Greece, I think that even in OTL the Greeks offered some territory to Bulgaria under the condition of Bulgaria joining the war against Turkey. In ATL such approaches would probably be far more serious. It's also possible there never would be a war with Turkey, as even the Greek leadership at the time wouldn't be likely to start a protracted war with a vengeful neighbor in the north.

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Check out A Shift In Priorities it has a Central Powers victory. Which makes a stronger Bulgaria.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=111014

If the Bulgarians managed to win the Second Balkan War, that might be doable.

MerryPrankster said:

If the Bulgarians managed to win the Second Balkan War, that might be doable.

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MerryPrankster

I think that would be pretty difficult. In the 1st one they exhausted a lot of strength fighting the Turks, then fell out with Russia over what they perceived as it's lack of support. The 2nd war was pretty telegraphed as Bulgaria made no bones about complaining about Serbia and Greece getting the bulk of the gains while they did most of the fighting.

Then when it actually came the king panicking at the last moment meant they started then stopped so have the burden of being the aggressor without really gaining any advantage. Things were already falling apart for them before Romania and Turkey jumped on them.

That is the problem for Bulgaria. I can see it making more gains but given those are likely to be at the extent of all it's neighbours, unless it manages to get serious great power support, it's likely to lose them fairly quickly.

Steve

stevep said:

Dementor

Interesting. I would understand the allies trying to get Serbia to make concessions and it refusing. Never heard of Greece making an offer and given the division in Greece between PM and king not sure how that would have worked. Do you know when this was?

I was thinking that a slightly more successful Gallipoli coupled with a big diplomatic push form Bulgaria, because they realise they need it's army to secure victory in Thrace. Both offering them the province, plus extensive military and economic aid plus possibly a subtle hint that if Bulgaria pushed the issue against an exhausted Serbia after the war the allies would give implicit support or at least not oppose them. Something I've played around with for a TL that sees WWI go different. Basically getting Bulgaria on the allied side there and then would be decisive in ensuring [barring extreme incompetence by the allies] an allied victory.

Steve

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The story that I've heard was that apparently that the Greeks offered some territory - in Eastern Thrace, apparently. The Bulgarian prime minister was willing to consider it, but the army generals rejected it out of hand. On second thought, the whole story seems rather dubious. I haven't found any confirmation by reliable sources (and forums are not reliable sources ). Also, Bulgaria had a semi secret alliance with Turkey during the war and even sent armed bands across the border. So the story is quite likely to be just a story. Sorry if I've mislead you.

As for intervening in 1915, that's plausible. But apart from the dubious gains, and the weak position of the Entente at this point, the German effort was far more sustained - they actually persuaded the Ottoman Empire to cede some territory to Bulgaria. Also, the Bulgarian king and prime minister had a good personal relationships with the German government, including a pension they were to receive regardless of the outcome of the war.
So you're correct that a more successful initial Gallipoli would be a crucial requirement.

MerryPrankster said:

If the Bulgarians managed to win the Second Balkan War, that might be doable.

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I would say that Bulgaria winning the Second Bulgarian war under conditions similar to OTL is almost ASB. Defeating the Greek and Serb armies is possible (even in OTL the war was verging towards a stalemate) but what would the point of that if Romania and the Ottoman Empire overrun the rest of the country? And stopping them from intervening would require the intervention of most of the Great Powers, which was not likely in this time period.
This is probably the third most discussed topics of alternate history in Bulgaria and the general consensus is that Bulgaria would have to demobilize and try to gain the favor of the Great Powers - not exactly the actions of a Prussia of the Balkans

ANARCHY_4_ALL said:

Check out A Shift In Priorities it has a Central Powers victory. Which makes a stronger Bulgaria.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=111014

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It's rare (and unpleasant) time line where Bulgaria is a ruthless mini-empire.

Dementor

Dementor said:

The story that I've heard was that apparently that the Greeks offered some territory - in Eastern Thrace, apparently. The Bulgarian prime minister was willing to consider it, but the army generals rejected it out of hand. On second thought, the whole story seems rather dubious. I haven't found any confirmation by reliable sources (and forums are not reliable sources ). Also, Bulgaria had a semi secret alliance with Turkey during the war and even sent armed bands across the border. So the story is quite likely to be just a story. Sorry if I've mislead you.

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Given how many factions were involved in both powers it might be that someone on the Greek side made such an offer but without authority from the king and/or government. However it does seem unlikely as Greece didn't join the war until 1917, which split the country. [Or are you saying this was an offer made prior to the 2nd Balkan conflict?]

As for intervening in 1915, that's plausible. But apart from the dubious gains, and the weak position of the Entente at this point, the German effort was far more sustained - they actually persuaded the Ottoman Empire to cede some territory to Bulgaria. Also, the Bulgarian king and prime minister had a good personal relationships with the German government, including a pension they were to receive regardless of the outcome of the war.
So you're correct that a more successful initial Gallipoli would be a crucial requirement.

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I don't think the entente position was that weak at the time, although the dramatic gains had been made by the Germans and the allied attack at Gallipoli had failed by the time Bulgaria joined the war. However it would have been difficult to have overcome the vested interests of the monarchy and much of the military that favoured Germany. Which is a pity as it's a fairly simple change that might have had a big effect in shortening the war and avoiding a lot of other problems later on.

I would say that Bulgaria winning the Second Bulgarian war under conditions similar to OTL is almost ASB. Defeating the Greek and Serb armies is possible (even in OTL the war was verging towards a stalemate) but what would the point of that if Romania and the Ottoman Empire overrun the rest of the country? And stopping them from intervening would require the intervention of most of the Great Powers, which was not likely in this time period.
This is probably the third most discussed topics of alternate history in Bulgaria and the general consensus is that Bulgaria would have to demobilize and try to gain the favor of the Great Powers - not exactly the actions of a Prussia of the Balkans

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Fully agree.

It's rare (and unpleasant) time line where Bulgaria is a ruthless mini-empire.

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Steve

La Rouge Beret said:

Good God... I never realised how large Bulgaria would become if that treaty had been implemented! Personally I always wanted General Sherman to become King Sherman, ala the Flashman series. Seriously they require an astute foreign policy, as they are at the intersection of three great powers with the Germans, Russians and the Turks. Hence diplomatic relations must be maintained with a strong army. A Bulgarian Bismarck perhaps?

Click to expand...

Has anyone ever made a TL about that? It would be made of so much win, the Balkans would bleed awesomeness.