China's balkanizing/Federalizing [also mandarin's intelligibility]

[Warsie]

Ok, how would you see china breaking apart? I'm going into this under two main assumptions, that it will be based off ethnicity - and that it will be based off dialect. So as a result, I am assuming mainly for southern china (with exceptions, see Hainan) that the southern sinitic languages will largely form coherent nations, like Canton.

Now, what about Mandarin? Mandarin is being promoted as a common language but there is still a weak mutual intelligibility between some mandarin dialects (see: Siuchanese vs Beijing dialect). How 'natural' is the classification of Mandarin chinese as a natural language, and how much of this is political wanking by the central chinese government to say 'we're a single nation when we're as diverse as the European countries really'. Given the saying that a language is a dialect with an army + navy (e.g. the 'political wanking' example) how true is it that mandarin is more mutually intelligible than hokkien or wu or whatever?

There is the same with the concept of the Han ethnicity in China, like 90% of the population is Han...but as affirmative actions for Manchus and whatnot happens (and cultural reawakening), Hans reclassify themselves as Manchurian and tre to re-learn their old languages. There are also arguments over which subgroups are Han chinese and which are not. How organic is the concept of Han chinese, and how much of this is simply 'we have a long tradition of pretending to be one ethnic group and successive governments pretend we're one single ethnic group and we're happy enjoying our Han priviledge so we don't care about pretendint to be sooo close and similar - oh look affirmative action I have a Manchurian grandfather and a great-aunt of mine is Hui ' type logic?)

Or just the government classifying people as 'han' due to.....other reasons.

I am aware my assumptions of balkanization are limited, and apparently there is a sort of provincial pride/nationalism - even if the borders of the provinces were set by the old imperial government to suppress self-determination - similar to borders set by Colonialists in Arab and African countries, but I assume the PRC reset the borders to be more natural, fitting with the influence of the USSR's titular nationality program - even if it was far from fully implemented.

[yourworstnightmare]

The two areas that would try to secede if the Chinese government collapse are Tibet and East Turkestan. There would be no other balkanizing.

[The Ubbergeek]

Originally Posted by yourworstnightmare

The two areas that would try to secede if the Chinese government collapse are Tibet and East Turkestan. There would be no other balkanizing.

No impossible, but more on economic interest, maybe, like a less nationalist Liga Norde of Italia?

[Warsie]

The efforts of the central government to promote putonghua will well.....piss off people in Canton as well as the various other peoples that don't speak the Beijing language. I can see that turning into say, nationalism in order to keep their culture from being suppressed.

[Blackfox5]

"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide."
- Luo Guanzhong, Romance of the Three Kingdoms

China has a history of breaking apart and getting back together. The core Han areas will always be China. The non-Han areas might separate, but while large in area are very low in population. This would include Tibet, Mongolia (now only Inner Mongolia), and Xinjiang (aka East Turkestand). Manchuria is likely too much incorporated into the core China area to ever become independent again.

Any other division is simply a temporary disunity that will return to the fold once a strong enough central government forms.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Blackfox5

"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide."
- Luo Guanzhong, Romance of the Three Kingdoms

China has a history of breaking apart and getting back together. The core Han areas will always be China. The non-Han areas might separate, but while large in area are very low in population. This would include Tibet, Mongolia (now only Inner Mongolia), and Xinjiang (aka East Turkestand). Manchuria is likely too much incorporated into the core China area to ever become independent again.

Any other division is simply a temporary disunity that will return to the fold once a strong enough central government forms.

I doubt that Inner Mongolia will ever leave at this point. Also, everyone forgets about the Zhuang and Hui autonomies, though the latter really are not that different from the Han. Then again, the Zhuang are fairly well assimilated too if I recall correctly.

[Warsie]

Originally Posted by Blackfox5

"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide."
- Luo Guanzhong, Romance of the Three Kingdoms

China has a history of breaking apart and getting back together. The core Han areas will always be China. The non-Han areas might separate, but while large in area are very low in population. This would include Tibet, Mongolia (now only Inner Mongolia), and Xinjiang (aka East Turkestand). Manchuria is likely too much incorporated into the core China area to ever become independent again.

Any other division is simply a temporary disunity that will return to the fold once a strong enough central government forms.

China also has a history of having emperors for thousands of years, and the last emperor was resigned in 1911. Thousands of years of tradition can die, especially when it is forced to by things that the old ways cannot fix/bumfuck conservatives who fight to destruction a la Agincourt. The Premise of an EU-like 'United Republics of China is not new, and it is difference than the abolition of any concept of 'china'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...cs_of_China.22

[Uriel]

Originally Posted by Warsie

China also has a history of having emperors for thousands of years, and the last emperor was resigned in 1911. Thousands of years of tradition can die, especially when it is forced to by things that the old ways cannot fix/bumfuck conservatives who fight to destruction a la Agincourt. The Premise of an EU-like 'United Republics of China is not new, and it is difference than the abolition of any concept of 'china'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...cs_of_China.22

Yuan, Chiang, Mao & Deng weren't that different from emperors if it comes to power & attitude

[Incognito]

Funny coincidence, I also wanted to start a “balkanized China” thread.

If China were to break apart (say China looses WWIII or something & is forced to balkanize by foreign powers), would Taiwan claim any parts of the mainland?

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Incognito

Funny coincidence, I also wanted to start a “balkanized China” thread.

If China were to break apart (say China looses WWIII or something & is forced to balkanize by foreign powers), would Taiwan claim any parts of the mainland?

Well, given that the Republic of China claims most of the mainland presently...

[Warsie]

Originally Posted by Uriel

Yuan, Chiang, Mao & Deng weren't that different from emperors if it comes to power & attitude

You could say that yes, but after Deng the politicians in China adopted a more collective role to governing, their party congresses et all. It's now more like a council.

[azander12]

Originally Posted by Incognito

Funny coincidence, I also wanted to start a “balkanized China” thread.

If China were to break apart (say China looses WWIII or something & is forced to balkanize by foreign powers), would Taiwan claim any parts of the mainland?

Yes they would. And another interesting "balkanized China" scenario could be the KMT and CCCP fighting a longer civil war, with the various Western powers and the USSR "intervening" and establishing rival, weak, Chinese governments.

[JimmyRibbitt]

Originally Posted by yourworstnightmare

The two areas that would try to secede if the Chinese government collapse are Tibet and East Turkestan. There would be no other balkanizing.

I could see the Chinese provices immediately surrounding Hong Kong seceding and joining with Hong Kong to create "Republic Of Hong Kong". I could also see Manchuria seceding and becoming indepdendent

[yourworstnightmare]

Originally Posted by JimmyRibbitt

I could see the Chinese provices immediately surrounding Hong Kong seceding and joining with Hong Kong to create "Republic Of Hong Kong". I could also see Manchuria seceding and becoming indepdendent

Why? Especially the Manchuria bit is completely ASB. Almost everyone in Manchuria is Han Chinese. And the South would probably dominate the new China anyway, so I don't see why they should secede.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by azander12

the KMT and CCCP fighting a longer civil war,

The KMT and CCCP in a civil war? Over Greater Eurasia I'm guessing?

[Warsie]

Originally Posted by yourworstnightmare

Why? Especially the Manchuria bit is completely ASB. Almost everyone in Manchuria is Han Chinese. And the South would probably dominate the new China anyway, so I don't see why they should secede.

There is a bit of a Manchurisn ressurection for people to re-learn that language and for mixed Manchu/Han people to identify as Manchu, partially for affirmative action and partially to learn their old culture (like white americans who do the same upon finding out their native ancestry)

[interpoltomo]

Dividing china on ethnic lines? Not gonna happen in the 20th century. You could have political lines, though. Generic communist soviet puppet manchuria, soviet puppet east turkestan, Maoist/Lin Biaoist northern China, monarchical/feudal Tibet, corrupt republican south China and a US commonwealth/state of Taiwan, from perhaps a different Pacific war world*.

* You know. One of those worlds where Taiwan and Okinawa are commonwealths or states by now.

[Rediv]

Well, could we have some ethnic divides after all? Nothing major, but could some of the minorities in the south make a move for independence?

[Warsie]

Originally Posted by Rediv

Well, could we have some ethnic divides after all? Nothing major, but could some of the minorities in the south make a move for independence?

From my personal looks onto internet sites that are accessible from the US, there are some 'Republic of Canton' and whatnot groups out there. They network with those Taiwanese nationalists. That's from my loks on youtube. So there are autonomist groups out there, but I haven't gone too well into there and google translated everything.

[Rediv]

Originally Posted by Warsie

From my personal looks onto internet sites that are accessible from the US, there are some 'Republic of Canton' and whatnot groups out there. They network with those Taiwanese nationalists. That's from my loks on youtube. So there are autonomist groups out there, but I haven't gone too well into there and google translated everything.

Republic of Canton? I would never have expected that! But you make a great point, I hadnt thought about the overseas Chinese, but they could really have a strong influence in a split-up China.

I'm a little fuzzy on the details too, but a while back I remember reading a book called "Song and Silence" about Buddhist monks of the Tai Lue ethnic group (I confess I had to google the title just now to get the specific name right) who were pretty alienated from the ruling Han Chinese and had very close links to their fellow Tai Lue across the border in Burma. So I imagine in a divided China scenario they could carve out their own tiny enclave as well.