Triple Alliance TL

So, let we begin- this is a TL of "Is this ASB?" thread. The basic premise is that Dreikaiserbund is preserved and turned into Triple Alliance.

Hercegovina uprising

The origins of Triple Alliance are very humble. It all started in a backward province of Ottoman Empire- in Herzegovina.
The reforms announced by the Turkish Sultan Abdulmecid I involving new rights for Christian subjects, a new basis for army conscription, and an end to the much-hated system of tax-farming, were either resisted or ignored by the powerful Bosnian landowners. They frequently resorted to more repressive measures against their Christian subjects. The tax burden on Christian peasants constantly increased.
On June 19, 1875 the Catholics in the Gabela and Hrasno districts of lower Herzegovina, ignited by overtaxing, rebelled against the Ottoman authorities under the leadership of don Ivan Musić. An orthodox uprising (popularly known as Nevesinje gun or Невесињска пушка) started on July 9, around the village of town Nevesinje in eastern Herzegovina. Subsequently, a general uprising of the entire Christian population in Bosnia and Herzegovina ensued. More than 150,000 people took refuge in Croatia. The Ottoman armed response came both from government troops under the recently appointed Bosnian governor and from the local landowners and their own irregular troops. The attempts to suppress the uprising proved unsuccessful.

The uprising get big simpaties in neighbouring countries, Croatia ( in that time a part of Austria- Hungary ), Principality of Serbia and Principalty of Montenegro. All of them had own agendas on Bosnia- Herzegovina and they all considered Bosnia- Herzegovina as part of their historic territory.

So, Serbia and Montenegro started to send volonteers and weapons into B-H and Croats started to send money, food and medicines. Government of A-H looked on all of that with suspicion. They were no friends of Turks, of course, but they were disturbed because they didn't know where all of that will end. Will the unrest stop on borders of Croatia and Dalmatia towards B-H? Will Serbia and Montenegro annex B-H? Hungarians were against any meddling in B-H because they were aware that they have a thin majority in Hungary proper, and if Croatia-Slavonia is added, then they were a minority. So, they wanted to avoid any anexation of B-H and incorporation of them into Croatia-Slavonia.

OTOH, A-H General Staff looked at this as a excellent chance of spreading of A-H influence on Southeast and reducing the length of the border with Ottoman Empire. They also didn't want to allow that Serbia and Montenegro get B-H. Serbia and Montenegro allready were dangerous road-models for Southern Slavs in Monarchy.



To be continued...

After uprising in B-H, an uprising in Bulgaria...


The failure of the Ottomans to handle the Herzegovinian uprising successfully showed the weakness of the Ottoman state.
In November 1875, activists of the Bulgarian Revolutionary central Comittee met in the Romanian town of Giurgiu and decided that the political situation was suitable for a general uprising. The uprising was scheduled for April or May 1876. The territory of the country was divided into five revolutionary districts with centers in Vratsa, Veliko tarnovo, Sliven, Plovdiv and Sofia.
The rebels had been hoarding arms and ammunition for some time. Revolution begain for two weeks in advance because Ottoman Police started to make arrests of revolutionary leaders.

Within several days, the rebellion spread to the whole Sredna Gora and to a number of towns and villages in the northwestern Rhodopes. The insurrection broke out in the other revolutionary districts, as well, though on a much smaller scale. The areas of Gabrovo, Tryavna, and Pavlikeni also revolted in force, as well as several villages north and south of Sliven and near Berovo. Detachments of regular and irregular Ottoman troops (bashi-bazouks) were mobilised and attacked the first insurgent towns as early as 25 April. Massacres of civilian populations were committed, the principal places being Panagurishte, Perushtitsa, Bratzigovo and Batak.
Details about these massacres quickly leaked outside Turkey, to the outrage of European public.


But let me tell you what we saw at Batak ... The number of children killed in these massacres is something enormous. They were often spitted on bayonets, and we have several stories from eye-witnesses who saw the little babes carried about the streets, both here and at Olluk-Kni, on the points of bayonets. The reason is simple. When a Mohammedan has killed a certain number of infidels he is sure of Paradise, no matter what his sins may be ... It was a heap of skulls, intermingled with bones from all parts of the human body, skeletons nearly entire and rotting, clothing, human hair and putrid flesh lying there in one foul heap, around which the grass was growing luxuriantly. It emitted a sickening odor, like that of a dead horse, and it was here that the dogs had been seeking a hasty repast when our untimely approach interrupted them ... The ground is covered here with skeletons, to which are clinging articles of clothing and bits of putrid flesh. The air was heavy, with a faint, sickening odor, that grows stronger as we advance. It is beginning to be horrible.”


Such and like reports turned support of european public against Turkey, and that resulted in turning the support of various european governmens against Turkey too. Especially the Government of united Kingdom, until then a pro-Turkish, now decided that Turks have made one massacre too much.
The political impact of the reports was immediate and dramatic.

The leader of the British opposition, William Gladstone, wrote a booklet denouncing what he called "the Bulgarian Horrors", and calling upon Britain to withdraw its support for Turkey. "I entreat my countrymen", he wrote, "upon whom far more than upon any other people in Europe it depends, to require and to insist that our government, which has been working in one direction, shall work in the other, and shall apply all its vigor to concur with the states of Europe in obtaining the extinction of the Turkish executive power in Bulgaria. Let the Turks now carry away their abuses in the only possible manner, namely, by carrying off themselves.

In the meanwhile, the uprising was completely crushed by the end of May.


Konstantin Makovsky: The Bulgarian martiresses

Serbia and Montenegro joining in

Serbia before the war ( pink colour )



After breaking of uprising in B-H, Goverment of Prince Milan of Serbia was under a great pressure. Evryone were expecting that Serbia soon enters the war against Turkey. Goverment was even called "Action Ministry" such were popular expectations.
Prince Milan Obrenović was under great pressure to do something, especially after hearing that his opponent Prince Petar of rival House of Karađorđević has take a part in uprising as a commander of one rebell unit in western Bosnia.
So Government decided to make a alliance with Montenegro, and they give big finalcial help to the Montenegro, and Serbia tried to raise a loan abroad for war. But they couldn't raise the loan and serbian army was poorly equipped. On the other hand, Turks were aware that Serbia will most probably soon declare war, so they grouped about 100 000 soldiers around Serbia. Turkish Army was also pretty modern, equipped with latest western weapons.
Austro- Hungary clearly said that they will not allow serbian annexation of Bosnia- Herzegovina.
Serbia declared war on June 18, and began operations on July 2. But, after a short thrust into Morava river valley Serbian Army was forced into retreat and after that into a panic escape.

Initial attack of forces of Principality of Montenegro was unsucessful, but when turkish forces began counteroffensive they were beaten in decisive battle of Vučji dol on July 28. After that there were no major actions on that front, but the war lingered for next 2 years.

Map of territorial development of Montenegro



After serbian defeat, Serbia asked that Russia, a big brother of all Slavic nations, act as a "mediator" between them and Turks.

Comments gentlemen?

All of that is OTL.
And, BTW, English isn't my mother-language, so I appologise in advance for mistakes.

Russian view

Emperor of Russia Alexander II and his Chancellor Prince Gorchakov followed events in Balkans with great interest. It appeared that Russia has given a chance to finally achieve what she wanted for a long time- to finally destroy Ottoman Empire in Europe and to get control over the Straits.



Czar Alexander II of Russia


Prince Gorchakov, Chancellor of the Russian Empire


But, Russia was well aware that United Kingdom, France and Italy were against any russian exit on a open Mediterranean and that A-H is against any greater russian influene in Balkans. So they realised that Germany and especcially her Chancellor Otto von Bismarck have a special role if they want to achieve their goals.

Russia and Germany were on very god terms in last 20 years. Support of Russia has practicly allowed unification of Germany, victories against A-H and France and indirectly allowed that Germany now was a premier Power of Europe. So, if they somehow suceed to get Germany on their side, they could expect some sucess. But, problem was that last year, Bismarck briefly considered idea of attacking France again. But, Gorchakov declined russian support for that. And from that moment, relations of Russia and Germany were pretty cold.

So, Czar and his chancellor boarded a imperial yacht and headed from St. Petersburg into a Germany. They had a scheduled meeting with Otto von Bismarck and his Emperor Wilhelm I. The meeting will take place in Bismarck's manor in Varzin in Pommerania.



Varzin Manor

At the meeting Russian Czar asked for German support and especially for german influence to soften Austro- Hungary. Bismarck was pretty reluctant at first, but when Alexander III offered to him a alliance against France ( Bismarck's great desire was to diplomaticlly isolate France ), if France ever attacks Germany and russian neutrality if Germany attacks France Iron Chancellor and his Emperor began to change its opinion. Alexander even ofered to him an alliance against any other country in alliance with France. So, after getting so important concessions, Bismarck decided that is time to support Russia. After all, Czar was pretty clear that if they don't get support from Germany, maybe France will be more willing to help them, and that, even if it's a empty threat, must be stopped at evrey cost. So, at that meeting they decided that Germany will apply a strong pressure on Kaiser Franz Josef and remind him that Monarchy owes its survival to the Germany and Bismarck and that Bismarck could easily to break the Monarchy apart in 1866.

On the other hand, Russia declared that A-H will get any assistance possible if they again would have any problems like in 1848. Also, Czar offered that A-H get's right to occupy Bosnia-Herzegovina and that Russia will make a equally strong influence on Serbia that she stops any anti-Austrian propaganda.

Czar asked for support for sucessful solving of Balkan affairs in the interest of Russia. Russia decided that the minimum is independent Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro and the right of free passage of Russian warships trough the Straits.

After a very sucessful meeting, the Czar and his Chancellor boarded the train to Karlstein in Bohemia where they will meet Emperor and King Franz Joseph and his Foreign Minister Count Andrassy.




Karlstein castle

This is interesting thus far, but can the Dreikaiserbund really last?

Wendell said:

This is interesting thus far, but can the Dreikaiserbund really last?

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We'll see about that. They certainly have a few bumps on the road ahead...

I'm still indecisive about the Alexander III and Nicholas II.
To kill them alltogether, or only Alex III? How to do that?

abc123 said:

We'll see about that. They certainly have a few bumps on the road ahead...

I'm still indecisive about the Alexander III and Nicholas II.
To kill them alltogether, or only Alex III? How to do that?

Click to expand...

Was it Nicholas or Alexander that there was an attempt on to assinate in Japan?

Wendell said:

Was it Nicholas or Alexander that there was an attempt on to assinate in Japan?

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It was Nicholas.
But, even if Nicholas is dead, I'm not sure that some of his brothers, like George Alexandrovich "weeping willow" or Michael Alexandrovich would be much better?

Also, death of Nicholas in Japan could result with a Russo-Japanese war in 1890s?

Meeting in Karlstein

One of the most descisive meetings in history occured in castle of Karlstein in Bohemia in sommer of 1876. Beautiful castle, built by king-emperor Charles IV was again a place of meetings of kings and emperors.

Czar Alexander II of Russia and his Chancellor met there Austro- Hungarian Emperor-King Franz Joseph and his Foreighn Minister Count Andrassy. But, even before of this meeting, one another meeting had happened. Ambassador of German Empire in Wienna asked a audience in a Ministry of Foreign Affairs of A-H. There he delivered a letter from his Emperor to the Emperor Franz-Joseph and asked for a audience in Schonbrunn Palace.

After that audience was granted, he expressed, in no un-certain terms message from German Kaiser that it is in the interest of both Empires that alliance with Russia is formed and that Germany STRONGLY advises that Austro- Hungary accept a fair proposal by Russia.

Franz Joseph, and even more, Austro- Hungarian diplomacy and military, were not overjoyed with that message. But, they were aware that Bismarck essentialy pardoned them in 1866 and that Austro- Hungary after that year is a tail, and that Germany is the dog. So, Franz Joseph and Andrassy decided that they would meet with their russian counterparts, but that they will try to get a best possible deal for Austro- Hungary.



Count Gyula Andrassy

After sightseeing of Castle, Emperors and ministers began talking. Russian Emperor asked Austro- Hungarian support in slving of Eastern Question favourably for interests of Russia. Essentially he wanted to achieve:

1) independence for Bulgary in it's ethnic borders
2) independence for Serbia and Montenegro
3) right of free passage for russian warships trough Bosphorus and Dardanelles

Austro- Hungarian delegation expressed their concerns about the interests of Austro- Hungary in the Balkans.
Russian Emperor then offered that Austro- Hungary occupies Bosnia and Herzegovina and so put an end on uprising there. Alexander III also announced that Russian Empire won't make any objections over annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina into A-H if A-H decides to do so one day.
Franz Joseph replied: "And what about your Orthodox brothers- Serbs and Montenegros, they won't like if they don't get Bosnia-Herzegovina!"
Alexander said: "Do not worry about them. Serbia and Montenegro are two very small countries, surely a mighty Austrian Empire don't have to be worried about them. After all, Russia WILL use all of his influence over them so that they see the that Austro- Hungary must get Bosnia-Herzegovina."
FJ again said: "But, what if they don't see the wisdom of such descision?"
Alexander replied: "Well, then is upon you to convince them to change opinion. Russia won't interfere about that."
Franz Joseph was pleased with that, but Count Andrassy put another question: If one day Bulgaria becomes independent, who will be the ruler of Bulgaria? We cannot accept that a some member of Romanov family becomes the King there.
Gorchakov replied that it would be the best if niether member of Romanov or Habsburg house becomes the King of Bulgary. Maybe some minor german dynasty would be the wisest solution.
A-H delegation seemed pleased with that solution.

But, the general agreement could still not be achieved, because A-H thought that Russia will rout Ottomans from Europe, and that any influence of A-H on Balkans will cease.

It was again turn on Russians to give further concessions, so Czar decided that A-H and Russia will have a equal influence in Serbia and Montenegro and that Russia will use all influence that she has to prevent any sort of irridentist behaviour and propaganda on South Slavic subjects and territories of Austro- Hungary.

Also, Czar declared that he has no intention to destroy Ottoman Empire in Europe, but that he want's to achieve aforementioned goals. Czar also declared that Russia is ready to enter in defansive alliance with A-H agains any Power that attacks A-H.

But, what really breaked resistance of Franz Joseph was a private conversation over cognac that evening where he and his russian counterpart discussed alone, without their ministers. It was a Czar's request. There, Czar issued a personal letter where he declared in the name of Russian Empire and his sucessors that he is ready to again give help to A-H in case of major internal disturbances, that is- if A-H Goverment asks for help.


Tomorrow, A-H and Russia signed so called "Karlstein Agreement".

Main points:

a) A-H supports russian position about Balkan question. So, if Russia goes into war against Ottoman Empire, A-H will remain neutral

b) A-H agrees with independence of Serbia, Montenegro and Bulgary but borders of that states will be determined by acord of A-H and Russia

c) Russia agrees that A-H can occupy Bosnia-Herzegovina and annex it one day when they see fit

d) Russia and A-H agree that Serbia and Montenegro will be considered as a sphere of prevailing A-H interests, that they will respect interests of opposite power in Serbia and Montenegro and that Russia will use all of influence on Serbia and Montenegro so that they make good-neighour policy towards A-H.

e) Russia promised that they will not seek destruction of Ottoman Empire in Europe if OE allows a free passage of russian warships trough the Straits

g) both Empires agreed that they will promote the principles of that Agreement in some future conference about Balkan/Straits questions.

h) they also agreed that in the event of differences in opinions about the implementing of this agreement or in other questions between Russia and A-H, they will ask mediation of Germany.

They also agreed that this Agreement will remain a secret.

A separate agrement was also signed where Russia promised to A-H that she will defend her if A-H is attacked by another Great Power.


Wiht these agreements in hand, Czar of All Russias returned into St. Petersburg, and stormy clouds began to assemble over Balkans.

Comments?

Update tonight.

Serbian intermezzo

In July–August, the ill-prepared and poorly equipped Serbian army helped by Russian volunteers failed to achieve offensive objectives but did manage to repulse the Ottoman offensive into Serbia, and on August 26, Serbia pleaded European powers to mediate in ending the war. A joint ultimatum by the European powers forced the Porte to give Serbia a one month truce and start peace negotiations. Turkish peace conditions however were refused by European powers as too harsh.

In early October, after the truce expired, the Turkish army resumed its offensive and the Serbian position quickly became desperate. As a result, on October 31, 1876 Russia issued an ultimatum requiring the Ottoman Empire to stop the hostilities and sign a new truce with Serbia within 48 hours. This was supported by the partial mobilization of the Russian army (up to 20 divisions). The Sultan accepted the conditions of the ultimatum.



Russia slowly began to assemble forces in southern Russia and in Georgia and Armenia.

The next chapter will deal with Constantinople Conference.
What demands shout Russia make there?

OTL, without German and A-H support, Russia made very modest demands, authonomy for Bulgary etc.

But, what will Russia do with German and A-H support?

And more importantly, what will be reaction of Britain on that demands? What will be the reaction of France? Will Bismarck threathen to attack France if France doesn't back down?

What about Italy?

abc123 said:

The next chapter will deal with Constantinople Conference.
What demands shout Russia make there?

OTL, without German and A-H support, Russia made very modest demands, authonomy for Bulgary etc.

But, what will Russia do with German and A-H support?

And more importantly, what will be reaction of Britain on that demands? What will be the reaction of France? Will Bismarck threathen to attack France if France doesn't back down?

What about Italy?

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Come on guy's, a little bit of help, if you dont mind...
Your advice please.

What about Italy?

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Italy will try to limit A-H spread of influence in a zone she has put her eyes on(and don't forget the irredente lands) but is role will be probably similar to OTL Berlin 78... totally isolation and ignored by all.
The Triple alliance will scare a lot of people in Rome so they will try a reapprochment with Paris (and London) for contrastate that, this can bring less problem for the italian economy (no or minor economic warfare with France) and maybe a co-dominion of Tunisia (even that will bring more prosperity to Italy, as the French dispossession of the italian interest in 81 really hit our economomy)

lukedalton said:

Italy will try to limit A-H spread of influence in a zone she has put her eyes on(and don't forget the irredente lands) but is role will be probably similar to OTL Berlin 78... totally isolation and ignored by all.
The Triple alliance will scare a lot of people in Rome so they will try a reapprochment with Paris (and London) for contrastate that, this can bring less problem for the italian economy (no or minor economic warfare with France) and maybe a co-dominion of Tunisia (even that will bring more prosperity to Italy, as the French dispossession of the italian interest in 81 really hit our economomy)

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Intresting ideas- thanks.
I will try to use something of that ...

abc123 said:

Intresting ideas- thanks.
I will try to use something of that ...

Click to expand...

Tell me, do you think that France and Italy could agree to divide Tunisia, so that France get's northern part, and Italy southern part?

abc123 said:

Tell me, do you think that France and Italy could agree to divide Tunisia, so that France get's northern part, and Italy southern part?

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If there is no other choice Rome will probably agree, she needs an alliance with Paris and London badly as her relations with Vienna are not very good (a lot of rumors about the new descent of the barbarians will probably run amok in all the penisula) but a division if implemeted at least will be the contrary of what you proposed, in OTL the great part of italian economic interest and immigrants were in the northern coast and is more accesible from Italy, the french can go in southern Tunisia from Algeria.
Maybe Italy will occupy Tunisia but will mantain special privilege for french citizens and economic interest and made a treaty with London about the passage in the sicily strait, or the contrary.

lukedalton said:

If there is no other choice Rome will probably agree, she needs an alliance with Paris and London badly as her relations with Vienna are not very good (a lot of rumors about the new descent of the barbarians will probably run amok in all the penisula) but a division if implemeted at least will be the contrary of what you proposed, in OTL the great part of italian economic interest and immigrants were in the northern coast and is more accesible from Italy, the french can go in southern Tunisia from Algeria.
Maybe Italy will occupy Tunisia but will mantain special privilege for french citizens and economic interest and made a treaty with London about the passage in the sicily strait, or the contrary.

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Huns ante portas?


I know that Italy is intrested in northern part, but France too is intrested for that part. That's the best part of Tunisia.
Since Italy here is a weaker partner, IMO they should be pleased with southern part and rights to their settlers in the north.

But, on the other hand, if France and Britain are scared enough ( and they will most probably be ) then they could do something to bring Italy in their fold.

Or, to make Tunisia a Franch-Italian Condominium?
Maybe that would be the best solution, becouse OTL Tunisia became a protecorate, not a colony.

Huns ante portas?

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Totally on spot

I know that Italy is intrested in northern part, but France too is intrested for that part. That's the best part of Tunisia.
Since Italy here is a weaker partner, IMO they should be pleased with southern part and rights to their settlers in the north.

But, on the other hand, if France and Britain are scared enough ( and they will most probably be ) then they could do something to bring Italy in their fold.

Or, to make Tunisia a Franch-Italian Condominium?
Maybe that would be the best solution, becouse OTL Tunisia became a protecorate, not a colony.

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Yes the last solution is the better and will make Rome look more favorable to an alliance...but in the end even the south parts of Tunisia with the pre-existent right of the italian settler and economic interest mantained will be accepted, as Italy will be very preoccupied (at least) by the Three Emperors alliance and feel very menaced, and nobody will even think that all alone we can resist so proud will be swallowed and the situation accepted but not forgotten.
BTW if an OTL Berlin congress happen it will be interesting