Urquiza's Argentine backs Lopez's Paraguay

As far as I understand the origins of the War of the Triple Alliance, the faction in Uruguay that was allied to Paraguay was being smashed by the Brazilians who backed the other faction. Lopez's Paraguay ended up at war with Brazil and invaded the Mato Grosso. Lopez expected Urquiza to back him, and Urquiza was being urged to do so by Argentine interests who backed the faction currently losing, and being massacred, in Uruguay. So, what if Urquiza had led Argentina into the war on Paraguay's side ?

Grey Wolf

Aside from that being overly charitable to both Lopez and Urquiza...by my reading, say rather that Urquiza displays treachery and guile, and initially allows Lopez's forces to transit his territory as Paraguay demanded. He'll sucker punch Lopez in late 1863 or early 1864, depending on how long he can keep his nationalism under control. When the dust settles, Argentina absorbs all of Paraguay and possibly Uruguay as well, depending on how exhuasted Brazil is (and thus willing to accept cash instead of land).

Argentina, recall, has not yet acknowledged either Uruguay or Paraguay in 1861 as legitimate nations, and insists on calling them Argentine provinces in rebellion. Any "deal", or even respectful communication, between Argentina and one of those nations is a deception. Lopez is trickable, though. Urquiza doesn't want to fight Brazil (they look big), not even with Lopez as a distraction, particularly not with so little for him to gain (with Lopez as an extremely ambitious ally, nominally supporting Uruguayan sovereignty, the only thing Urquiza can possibly get from Brazil is cash. And there's only so much cash to be had.)

A question, Shawn: Would Urquiza be able to do all that? Not the treachery part, given what little I know of him, he would do to Lopez everything you said, given the opportunity. However, he was a local caudillo, not the Argentinian president, and I don't think Mitre would waste the chance to get rid of him before he had time to double-cross López.

Oh, I think Urquiza'd be acting with some approximation of the full faith and confidence of the Argentine government, Mitre included. (If, at the time, that's not an oxymoron). Argentina wants its "lost territories" back, and here's a chance to have them while making Brazil do the heavy lifting. Some members of the government will scruple at such a large deception in matters of international diplomacy...but not enough to stop it, I think.

Hmm, that would mean a change in Mitre's attitude towards López; he was the one who favored the alliance against Paraguay. It's not impossible, but I'm not sure how likely it is.

BTW, Brazil wouldn't stand for the annexation of Paraguay; it would mean Argentina would be able to cut off the river route to Mato Grosso. Brazil would be forced to do something, be it right then or a few years later.

Guilherme Loureiro said:

Hmm, that would mean a change in Mitre's attitude towards López; he was the one who favored the alliance against Paraguay. It's not impossible, but I'm not sure how likely it is.

BTW, Brazil wouldn't stand for the annexation of Paraguay; it would mean Argentina would be able to cut off the river route to Mato Grosso. Brazil would be forced to do something, be it right then or a few years later.

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Completely off topic, but dealing with the same vincity, WI Brazil annexed Paraguay following the War of the Triple Alliance. Argentina sort of made an early peace and it was the Brazilians that chased down Lopez. Or what if Argentina and Brazil divided Paraguay between themselves? West bank of the Paraguay goes to Argentina and the East Bank of the Paraguay goes to Brazil.

They sort of did that already...Paraguay was 3 times its present size in 1860.

For that, we have to actually make Lopez a little more cautious/smarter, and accept Argentina's refusal of transit; fight one enemy at a time, and Brazil is up first. I haven't studied individual battles all that much, but I guess we shall assume Brazil's geography works in its favor, allowing it beat Paraguay by itself on the OTL timetable or something like it.

ShawnEndresen said:

They sort of did that already...Paraguay was 3 times its present size in 1860.

For that, we have to actually make Lopez a little more cautious/smarter, and accept Argentina's refusal of transit; fight one enemy at a time, and Brazil is up first. I haven't studied individual battles all that much, but I guess we shall assume Brazil's geography works in its favor, allowing it beat Paraguay by itself on the OTL timetable or something like it.

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Too many rivers in transit along the South, only one large city in Mato Grosse de Sol, Lopez was competant on the field of battle, just not in taking on a two front war. Lopez also has an army of 50,000, not sure on Brazil's but if Paragauy can deal with this problem quickl they can gain a lot of territory.

ShawnEndresen said:

They sort of did that already...Paraguay was 3 times its present size in 1860.

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Got a map?

ShawnEndresen said:

They sort of did that already...Paraguay was 3 times its present size in 1860.

For that, we have to actually make Lopez a little more cautious/smarter, and accept Argentina's refusal of transit; fight one enemy at a time, and Brazil is up first. I haven't studied individual battles all that much, but I guess we shall assume Brazil's geography works in its favor, allowing it beat Paraguay by itself on the OTL timetable or something like it.

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Paraguay is 3 times smaller than her 1860 CLAIMS, not actual size(it may not even be that, I'd have to check on some maps).

Actually, Brazil's geography works AGAINST it, not for. An illustration of the difficulties in reaching Brazil's interior, the early 1700's river trade caravans between São Paulo and Cuiabá(Mato Grosso province capital), took three months to reach their destination. During the voyage, the canoes had to be offloaded and carried over ground about one hundred times; the upper Paraná river has too many waterfalls, most of Brazil electical power is generated on the Paraná river. Surprisingly enough, the road network wasn't improved much, if at all, by 1860; the first rail link between São Paulo and Mato Grosso was completed in 1910.

Invading Paraguay from the North would be a large-scale repetition of the Laguna Expedition of 1867-68, which lost 2/3 of its personnel and 3 commanders due to disease before reaching Paraguayan territory. Also, the Brazilian Army wouldn't have the logistical support they had in Argentinian territory. I don't think it would be impossible to defeat Paraguay, but quite possibly it would be hard enough to make the Brazilians give up.

Regarding López, he wasn't competent in the field of battle at all; no one who constantly sends outnumbered and outequipped troops to a hopeless fight, relying on superior Paraguayan fighting spirit to carry the day can be called competent. There's a reason Paraguay was using 12-year old boys in the army by 1869; López had squandered his men.

David S Poepoe said:

Completely off topic, but dealing with the same vincity, WI Brazil annexed Paraguay following the War of the Triple Alliance. Argentina sort of made an early peace and it was the Brazilians that chased down Lopez. Or what if Argentina and Brazil divided Paraguay between themselves? West bank of the Paraguay goes to Argentina and the East Bank of the Paraguay goes to Brazil.

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This could have happened; after the war, Argentina wanted to annex the western bank of the Paraguay, and leave the rest as an independent country. Brazil would annex the rest of Paraguay if that happened, because it would be a liability. In the end, it was decided to settle all standing border claims in favor of Brazil and Argentina, and nothing else. Argentina didn't want a long border with Brazil, and Brazil wanted as many countries along the Paraguay river as possible.

I like watershed borders. How do we arrange it that Brazil gets the Amazon watershed, but loses the Plata watershed? Argentina gets Paraquay, Uruguay, and maybe the southern coastal states of Brazil? We have to have Argentina win and Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Columbia, and Venezuela lose, with Brazil moving north and west a few hundred miles.

wkwillis said:

I like watershed borders. How do we arrange it that Brazil gets the Amazon watershed, but loses the Plata watershed? Argentina gets Paraquay, Uruguay, and maybe the southern coastal states of Brazil? We have to have Argentina win and Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Columbia, and Venezuela lose, with Brazil moving north and west a few hundred miles.

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For official borders, the POD would be the Treaty of Madrid(1750). However, that treaty was mostly the acknowledgment of the actual borders between Portuguese and Spanish America, so the POD is earlier, the early 1600's.

Have the Bandeirantes fail in their Indian-enslaving expeditions earlier. In OTL, the Jesuitic Missions only got permission to arm themselves after the Iberian Union was ended in 1640, and in 1641 a Bandeirante expedition was crushed at Mbororé(Paraguay), ending Bandeirante penetration southwards. Arm the Jesuits 10 years earlier, and you can save the Tape Missions(in what is now Rio Grande do Sul state), but it may cause the survival of the Itatim Missions(south of Mato Grosso do Sul state), which would hamper westward expansion. The Guaíra Missions(Paraná state), were destroyed in 1628 and so don't count(and possibly were too close to São Paulo to be defended).

Another possibility is having gold being discovered in Minas Gerais earlier, but then it would have to be discovered 65 to 70 years earlier(1625-30 instead of 1695).

There's a lot more than what I've said that can be done; I didn't say anything about expansion in the Amazon, for example.

Thanks. I don't know enough to post in those areas. Kind of like my pirate California timeline and 1600's Pacific history.

I must be having a non-strategic moment. Given that travel in Brazil's interior is so complicated and hazardous, surely it bogs down Lopez because he's on the offensive? Not that the mores of the time allow Brazil to just sit back and watch Lopez killing his army without at least trying to help, but...Lopez will be coping with these dificulties for days or weeks before the Brazilians show up, no?

ShawnEndresen said:

I must be having a non-strategic moment. Given that travel in Brazil's interior is so complicated and hazardous, surely it bogs down Lopez because he's on the offensive? Not that the mores of the time allow Brazil to just sit back and watch Lopez killing his army without at least trying to help, but...Lopez will be coping with these dificulties for days or weeks before the Brazilians show up, no?

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Depends on where he strikes. Going for Mato Grosso is easier to López because his logistical base is closer, i.e., what hampers Brazil is not only the rough terrain, but the distance from the more populous areas. Conversely, if he tried to invade São Paulo, it would be him who would traverse through rough terrain far from his supply base(not to mention face Brazilian resistance - that's why I find timelines that have López go all the way to Rio as plausible as Sealion).

Brazil would strike back, that's a given. However war-weariness would quickly settle on. Many of the Voluntários da Pátria(Fatherland's Volunteers) batallions had a large number of negros, because you could "volunteer" two slaves in your stead(to be freed after the end of hostilities). The number of marriages increased, because married men were exempt. A few National Guard units refused to be sent to Paraguay. And this was OTL, after the Paraguayans were beaten at Uruguaiana and Riachuelo, and were cooped inside Humaitá. Can you imagine what would it be like if Brazil had only experienced failures? D.Pedro II would be in favour of continuing the war(he took the war rather personally), but how many would follow him, and for how long?

Guilherme Loureiro said:

Depends on where he strikes. Going for Mato Grosso is easier to López because his logistical base is closer, i.e., what hampers Brazil is not only the rough terrain, but the distance from the more populous areas. Conversely, if he tried to invade São Paulo, it would be him who would traverse through rough terrain far from his supply base(not to mention face Brazilian resistance - that's why I find timelines that have López go all the way to Rio as plausible as Sealion).

Brazil would strike back, that's a given. However war-weariness would quickly settle on. Many of the Voluntários da Pátria(Fatherland's Volunteers) batallions had a large number of negros, because you could "volunteer" two slaves in your stead(to be freed after the end of hostilities). The number of marriages increased, because married men were exempt. A few National Guard units refused to be sent to Paraguay. And this was OTL, after the Paraguayans were beaten at Uruguaiana and Riachuelo, and were cooped inside Humaitá. Can you imagine what would it be like if Brazil had only experienced failures? D.Pedro II would be in favour of continuing the war(he took the war rather personally), but how many would follow him, and for how long?

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From what I've read INVADING Mato Grosso and Corrientes was easy, but HOLDING them was far harder, especially for the latter.

btw I hadn't realised that Gaston d'Orleans had such a major role in ending the war, though I had known it was down to him that what survived of the Paraguayan national archives did so

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf said:

From what I've read INVADING Mato Grosso and Corrientes was easy, but HOLDING them was far harder, especially for the latter.

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Yup.

btw I hadn't realised that Gaston d'Orleans had such a major role in ending the war, though I had known it was down to him that what survived of the Paraguayan national archives did so

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You mean Princess Isabel's husband? I have some trouble sorting the names of Brazilian nobility

Guilherme Loureiro said:

Yup.



You mean Princess Isabel's husband? I have some trouble sorting the names of Brazilian nobility

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Yeah, the guy who would've been Prince Consort had things happened that way. I remember you telling me he was much hated, but he led the final campaign against Lopez surprisingly well and vigorously from what I read recently.

btw 'The Shadows of Elisa Lynch' is what I've been reading - do you know it ?

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf said:

Yeah, the guy who would've been Prince Consort had things happened that way. I remember you telling me he was much hated, but he led the final campaign against Lopez surprisingly well and vigorously from what I read recently.

btw 'The Shadows of Elisa Lynch' is what I've been reading - do you know it ?

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Yes, he did well, managing to keep up the pressure despite the logistical problems.

I don't know about this book. Is it about Lynch's entire life, or just an specific part of it?