The Dead Skunk

[King Henry]

Originally Posted by Lycaon pictus

Poland is… being repressed. Prussia will end up ceding the Posen area to Russia at the Congress of Stockholm on the grounds that they can control it better. What Prussia gets in return… well, I'll get to that.

I've been wondering about Hungary. It's still a part of the Austrian Empire, but since Austrian influence is rising in Bohemia, Saxony, Baden and Württemberg at the same time as the empire loses its Italian possessions, the empire is becoming more and more German-centered. Conflict potential very high.

Wait, all of Posen? Assuming Russia rule in Poland develops fairly similarly, that's a huge boost in territory and manpower to any potential rebellion in the future, especially is Prussia/Germany has no qualms about supporting it to a give Russia a black eye.

Well, a more explicitly German empire, especially one with the German population to back it up, is probably going to drive the Magyar aristocracy absolutely mad.

[Lycaon pictus]

I'll have the next update before the end of the month. It will cover the latest news from Stockholm.

[Iserlohn]

Originally Posted by Lycaon pictus

I'll have the next update before the end of the month. It will cover the latest news from Stockholm.

*channels his inner M. Bison*
YES! YES!

[bm79]

Yippee!

[King Henry]

Awesome, can't wait!

[Stolengood]

HURRAH!!!

Incidentally, have you any thought on implementing the "Bonaparte sibling" idea I suggested back in May, or... not? I don't mind, either way; just figure it'd be fun to see.

[Grouchio]

Look's like the dead skunk has risen...

[Lycaon pictus]

Originally Posted by Stolengood

HURRAH!!!

Incidentally, have you any thought on implementing the "Bonaparte sibling" idea I suggested back in May, or... not? I don't mind, either way; just figure it'd be fun to see.

I'm not promising anything yet, but it will be raised as a possibility… if for no other reason than to freak out Castlereagh.

[Stolengood]

Originally Posted by Lycaon pictus

I'm not promising anything yet, but it will be raised as a possibility… if for no other reason than to freak out Castlereagh.

THAT will be awesome to see, especially considering the liberality of the two Bonapartes I proposed...

Also... has anything happened with Prince Edward (Queen Victoria's father OTL) in this TL? Considering the monarchs you've created thus far, it might be interesting to see an independent Canadian monarchy, sprung from the long relationship of Edward and his Quebec-residing consort, Thérèse-Bernardine Montgenet... no?

[Lycaon pictus]

I'd been wondering what to do with Prince Edward myself, now that I've handed his woman over to Prince William and eliminated the need for him to father the heir to the throne. Rather than an independent monarchy, maybe a prince-regency modeled on what Ferdinand is trying to do with his brothers in the New World?

[Stolengood]

Originally Posted by Lycaon pictus

I'd been wondering what to do with Prince Edward myself, now that I've handed his woman over to Prince William and eliminated the need for him to father the heir to the throne. Rather than an independent monarchy, maybe a prince-regency modeled on what Ferdinand is trying to do with his brothers in the New World?

Perhaps... but I think Canada, despite wanting the protection of Britain in case a jingoed-up U.S. comes to call (as I suspect the Dead Roses might), will also want some measure of independence; a monarch to call their own, not just one shared by the Crown countries.

A ceremonial head-of-state that's also natural-born royalty seems like a sweet proposition for a fledgling former colony, no?

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Stolengood

Perhaps... but I think Canada, despite wanting the protection of Britain in case a jingoed-up U.S. comes to call (as I suspect the Dead Roses might), will also want some measure of independence; a monarch to call their own, not just one shared by the Crown countries.

A ceremonial head-of-state that's also natural-born royalty seems like a sweet proposition for a fledgling former colony, no?

Stolengood

I suspect that might be a good idea in the longer term, when their more developed and feeling more secure. Especially since it could possibly remove some of the restrictions available in Britain, like Catholics related to the monarchy, which would be attractive to the French population.

However in the near turn I feel that a direct contact, rather than something more independent, is more useful to them as they don't want to send any signal of difference/distance from Britain with a resentful and quite possibly hostile US next door.

Steve

[Lycaon pictus]

Caulaincourt had come to Stockholm with four goals in mind:
• Secure guarantees from all Powers to respect the Regency Council and the Chambers as the legitimate government of France and disavow all support for royalist pretenders, Bourbon or otherwise.
• Secure guarantees from all Powers to respect the new borders of France, from Savoy to the Waal. Lanjuinais and the Council were willing to cede (at a minimum) the majority-Dutch-speaking regions of north Brabant and Limbourg to the Netherlands in exchange for that kingdom forming an alliance with France and replacing William I with Louis Bonaparte.
• Rebuild alliances with Denmark and Bavaria.
• Persuade Britain and Austria to recognize the Kingdom of Italy under Gioachino I and withdraw from the peninsula, gaining France yet another ally.

The first of these goals had already nearly been achieved. Prussia and Britain had, most reluctantly, agreed to recognize the French government two years ago. The tsar had not even been reluctant to do so — with Napoleon safely gone, far better to concentrate on domestic reform than to spill more Russian blood into the Rhine and Moselle in the service of “allies” who would merely seek to hobble his empire at the peace table. The king of Spain had refused to recognize any government in which the House of Bonaparte had a role. In doing so, of course, he had more or less assured that his own Cortes would recognize the Regency Council in order to further undercut his power, despite residual hostility in Spain towards “José de las Joyas.” Only in Austria and the Two Sicilies was the dream of Royalist France alive at this point.

The second of these goals was, at least from Castlereagh’s point of view, more of a problem. He didn't care about Savoy, but allowing the current borders to stand in the north would mean reducing the Netherlands to the status of a rump state — to say nothing of leaving the major port and shipyard of Anvers (Antwerp) in French hands and compounding the difficulty of invading France again, should it become necessary. For the Netherlands (at whatever size) to accept France as an ally would be downright catastrophic to British commerce. But last year’s campaign to drive them out of that land had been a complete failure.

The third and fourth goals were still preventable. If post-Bourbon France could no longer be defeated, it could still be isolated — and Metternich and von Hardenburg agreed with Castlereagh that this was worth pursuing. The hostility towards the Revolution that had defined the policies of Europe since 1789 had not yet dissipated, particularly since Lanjuinais and the Regency Council derived much of their support from the sort of unrepentant Jacobins that were every crowned head’s worst nightmare.

Moreover, Denmark straddled the entrance to the Baltic, and Bavaria sat squarely in the middle of Austria’s new sphere of influence. With them, the Netherlands and a united Italy as allies, France would dominate western Europe. As Castlereagh put it, “Let us not give the French in Stockholm what we denied them at Leipzig and Nancy.”

In any case, Austria and the Neapolitan Bourbons were never going to be dislodged from Italy by anything short of force. “Brigands and republicans are not to be bargained with,” said Metternich on June 3. “They are in a permanent state of war with the civilized world.”

Caulaincourt disagreed. “The brave descendants of the Romans have had enough of feudal division and foreign rule,” he said. “The time has come for their right of self-determination to be acknowledged by all Europe.” He added that if Austria sent another army into Italy, “France will come to the aid of the Italian freedom fighters.” This threat left Metternich unmoved…
H. Michael Wolcott, A History of Western International Diplomacy, 1648-1858

[Stolengood]

YAY, UPDATE!!!

This is great... though I suspect Metternich will somehow use his crafty wiles to... do something, I don't know what.

[AuroraBorealis]

I see you've drawn lines in the sand yet again...and it does not bode well, I'm just not sure for who.

Metternich and the Neapolitan Bourbons are not going to back down. Without a serious Navy, Murat, no matter how much support he has from France, cannot take Sicily. France and Austria at this point are not strong enough to defeat each other on their home turf. Austria can however force Bavaria from the equation if they play their cards right and fight a defensive war in the North of Italy while Britain and the Neapolitans attempt to divert Murats attention in the south.

Sweden will probably join the Austrians and British to keep the Danes out of the equation.

The only way I see peace coming is on terms acceptable to the Austrians. If they must accept Murat in at least the North of Italy. They will have to be compensated for their losses there in Germany itself.

So Another round of fighting where each side bloodies the other but cannot inflict a knock out blow which brings both sides to their senses regarding the need to finally compromise. The French will have to give more to get peace.

Britain will probably accept Louis as King of the Netherlands eventually, but will never accept direct French control of Antwerp and the Scheldt estuary. The French will probably have to give it to the Netherlands.

The Savoy will be a problem as they cannot be dislodged from Sardinia, and they cannot be forced to give up their claims on the mainland either unless compensated some how. I just don't know where it would come from. Of course if the Regency where to declare the Carignan line as sovereign in the Piedmont under theirs or Murat's direct sovereignty it would take some of the wind out of their sails.

[Stolengood]

...and what... happens... next?

[PulkitNahata]

Now it becomes more interesting

[King Henry]

It will be really interesting to see the resolution of the situation in the Netherlands.

In Italy, what's the actual balance of power between Austria, the Bourbons and the Kingdom?

Would Russia accept a peace settlement where a French Ally controls access to the Baltic?

Speaking of French allies, what's the situation in the Germanies outside of Prussia and Austria?

This my have been gone over before, but what happened to Poland/Warsaw?

What's the French position on the unrest in Spain?

But mostly IT"S BACK!

[Lycaon pictus]

Originally Posted by King Henry

It will be really interesting to see the resolution of the situation in the Netherlands.

In Italy, what's the actual balance of power between Austria, the Bourbons and the Kingdom?

I'll be getting to the Netherlands in a little bit. In Italy, the islands of Sardinia and Sicily are under the control of their respective kings. On the peninsula itself, Austria controls (in the loosest sense of the word) the northeast, the Po Valley west of Brescia and Cremona and the east coast as far as Ancona. The Kingdom of the Two Sicilies holds a very loose grip on its own territory, although Morriset's reign of terror is making more enemies than it kills. The rest of the peninsula is held by forces loyal to King Gioachino. (Technically, of course, this includes a lot of the Papal States. The Pope and Joachim Murat are going to have to come to some kind of agreement about who's in charge there.)

Originally Posted by King Henry

Would Russia accept a peace settlement where a French Ally controls access to the Baltic?

The very next update will concern Denmark.

Originally Posted by King Henry

Speaking of French allies, what's the situation in the Germanies outside of Prussia and Austria?

I'll be getting to that soon.

Originally Posted by King Henry

This my have been gone over before, but what happened to Poland/Warsaw?

Warsaw is under Russian control. As for Posen, that will also be mentioned in the next update.

Originally Posted by King Henry

What's the French position on the unrest in Spain?

The thing between the king and the Cortes isn't really unrest — sorry if I gave that impression. It's just a fairly constant political spat. France isn't going to get involved.

Originally Posted by King Henry

But mostly IT"S BACK!

So it is.

[Stolengood]

Any response to me, Lycaon?