WI : 'Partial' Independece of Brazil ?

[Ridwan Asher]

I'm looking for the way to enable Portugal retain a sizable portion of Brazil when the rest of the country goes independent. Also, I'd like to now which of the regions that would most likely stay with Portugal in this kind of scenario.....

[Ridwan Asher]

Bump. No takers ?

Should this kind of scenario have its PoD before 1800 ? Because if yes, I personally wouldn't mind at all....

[Analytical Engine]

That all depends on how Brazil becomes independent.

If anything, it was Portugal that became independent of Brazil IOTL...

Ok, let's be serious for a second. If, for example, the Braganzas don't make it to Brazil for some reason during the Napoleonic Wars, you could see Brazil rising up.

In that case, Portugal might keep hold of northern Brazil, because, well, there are fewer people there...

[Gonzaga]

Originally Posted by Ridwan Asher

I'm looking for the way to enable Portugal retain a sizable portion of Brazil when the rest of the country goes independent. Also, I'd like to now which of the regions that would most likely stay with Portugal in this kind of scenario.....

The most likely regions that would stay with Portugal would be the provinces of Pará and Maranhão. At the time the landowners and merchants from these places were against the separation because: a) the main markets where they could sell their products where located in Europe; b) it was easier and faster go from Belem or São Luis to Lisbon than to Rio de Janeiro.

It can be said that these provinces were rather conquered by the Brazilian forces rather than expelled the Portuguese by their own. There was a "nativist" movement there, but was much weaker than in Bahia or Pernambuco, for example. I'm just not sure about the region that is nowadays the state of Piaui. The loyalties there were very divided, and their independence was conquered after much internal fight. Depending on the conditions they could follow any of both paths.

[Ridwan Asher]

Originally Posted by Gonzaga

It can be said that these provinces were rather conquered by the Brazilian forces rather than expelled the Portuguese by their own. There was a "nativist" movement there, but was much weaker than in Bahia or Pernambuco, for example. I'm just not sure about the region that is nowadays the state of Piaui. The loyalties there were very divided, and their independence was conquered after much internal fight. Depending on the conditions they could follow any of both paths.

By "Nativist", you mean their own nationalists, instead of pro-Brazil nationalists ?

Also, what do you think the area of present day state of Tocantins will end up with ? All wikipedia says is that this area was part of Goyaz and was quite isolated from the southern part of Goyaz, the metropolitan of the said state. It strikes that, had Portuguese retained Para and Maranhao they would have better access to Tocantins than the Brazilians.

[Gonzaga]

Originally Posted by Ridwan Asher

By "Nativist", you mean their own nationalists, instead of pro-Brazil nationalists ?

At that time there wasn't much difference between them. While the separatists certainly didn't think they were connected to Rio de Janeiro they also knew they couldn't defeat the Portuguese on their own, and so it was needed the help of the forces from the South.

Originally Posted by Ridwan Asher

Also, what do you think the area of present day state of Tocantins will end up with ? All wikipedia says is that this area was part of Goyaz and was quite isolated from the southern part of Goyaz, the metropolitan of the said state. It strikes that, had Portuguese retained Para and Maranhao they would have better access to Tocantins than the Brazilians.

It was a region almost non-populated at the time - some would say that still is. It could have gone anyway, it would depend on the results of the war conflicts.

[Super Parker Brothers]

What if the Portuguese discovered that the Royal Family, which had previously abandonded them when Napoleon invaded, was trying to break off Brazil? Maybe they overthrow him? Doubtful that they would want a French styled Republic and they would be wary of the Congress of Europe. Maybe it could be timed around those of the uprisings in Belgium and Spain. The Portuguese might lso have invested a lot more during the Napoleonic times in parts of Brazil, or had their representatives in court.