WI: Earlier Franco-Prussian War?

[SavoyTruffle]

Originally Posted by TyranicusMaximus

The French held the Prussians out of Paris, but otherwise I don't think we're talking about the same war.

Which makes sense with French history - Paris is the beating, vibrant heart of France, and in no other European state is the tenet of holding the heart more important.

[TyranicusMaximus]

Originally Posted by SavoyTruffle

Which makes sense with French history - Paris is the beating, vibrant heart of France, and in no other European state is the tenet of holding the heart more important.

That Paris is, and reading an article about France's resolve to hold the city impressed me, and it was a skillful defense at that.

I just personally feel that the war was decided at Sedan.

[SavoyTruffle]

Originally Posted by TyranicusMaximus

That Paris is, and reading an article about France's resolve to hold the city impressed me, and it was a skillful defense at that.

I just personally feel that the war was decided at Sedan.

Sedan was the decisive point; the march to Paris was a mere formality (and was showing that Prussia in this scenario was ready to rub in Napoleon III's folly).

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by pompejus

The only part of the Netherlands the Germans/Prussians had some claim to was Limburg. so yes, that would probably annexed in case the Netherlands would get involved in the war.

The reason Bismarck didn't want Alsac-Lorraine, (at least to, I believe, Susano, but I heard it from other people too) was that he didn't want to anger France after the war. The reason he was so lenient to Austria was to not make an enemy, he wanted to do that to France too, but was overruled by the king. (This could be a reason for Limburg to remain Dutch btw, annexing it would vertainly push the Netherlands into the French and anti-German camp.) Germany didn't have a good claim towards Alsace-Lorraine anyway, as it wasn't part of the German confederacy and had been French since before the revolutionairy wars.

But A-L had been part of the HRE and Dutch Limburg had been in the German Confederation. That said, Bismarck not wanting to make enemies is totally within character. However, French obsession with recovering the area always seemed obsessive to me.

[robertp6165]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Why does everyone assume an earlier Franco-Prussian War is going to led to an instant Prussian curbstomp?

Because, without some major changes to the French military machine prior to the war, it would have been. As it was, the French didn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning. Starting the war earlier would have just made it worse, because the reforms which Nappy III was trying to make to his military in the aftermath of the Six Weeks War would not have progressed as far as they had by 1870.

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Even IOTL the war was alot closer than most people (especially on these boards) would have you believe.

No, it really wasn't. It was, with the exception of the defense of Paris, a curbstomp.

[pompejus]

Originally Posted by Wendell

But A-L had been part of the HRE and Dutch Limburg had been in the German Confederation. That said, Bismarck not wanting to make enemies is totally within character.

All of the Netherlands, Belgium, Northern France (French Hainaut, French Flanders and Artois), southern Lorrain, the Freche Comte, Provence, Switserland, Northern Italy, Bohemia/Moravia, Austria and Liechtenstein had been part of the HRE, still Bismarck didn't try to annex it. Having been part of the HRE isn't a good reason. They might have spoken a German dialect, but that didn't make them German (although I must admit, I have no clue how the Alsation and Lorranians saw themselves, maybe they did consider themselves German in 1869). Still there have been worse reasons for annexations, it is not as if France had a good claim on the areas when they annexed them (besides that ridiculous Rhineborder idea). I just think Bismarck was brilliant in not wanting to annex it, too bad he was overruled.

Speaking about not angering other countries needlessly. The best way to avoid driving the Dutch into the French camp, would be not to declare war on them, which is probably the most likely thing to happen. If you want to attack France, the strongest militairy country on the continent for the last 3 centuries, you do not get involved in a war, that will drain at least some part of your army, you can easily avoid. So the Netherlands probably was safe. About Limburg, Limburg only became part of the German Confederation as a compensation for the parts of Luxemburg lost to Belgium. As it had been almost completely part of the Netherlands (either southern or republican) in the past, the Dutch had a very good claim to it. Besides that most Dutch, including the Limburgian considered themselves Dutch or at least not Germans. Still Bismarck would probably annex it if he could easily get away with it.

[Wendell]

So, regardless of whatever other gains might be made, if the Prussians win, then will Luxembourg be annexed to Prussia directly, or would it become/remain a state within some broader definition of Germany emergent after the war?

[pompejus]

Originally Posted by Wendell

So, regardless of whatever other gains might be made, if the Prussians win, then will Luxembourg be annexed to Prussia directly, or would it become/remain a state within some broader definition of Germany emergent after the war?

I suppose Prussia annexes it to its Rhine Province. Who would rule it , if it became its own state? The king of the Netherlands*?

*I suppose that could happen if the Dutch would kick him out because they (almost) got involved in a foreign war. Still, seems a bit unlikely to happen.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by pompejus

I suppose Prussia annexes it to its Rhine Province. Who would rule it , if it became its own state? The king of the Netherlands*?

*I suppose that could happen if the Dutch would kick him out because they (almost) got involved in a foreign war. Still, seems a bit unlikely to happen.

Well, there always seem to have been random princes sitting around in Germany

[Cadet 419]

Originally Posted by Perkeo

If Prussia acts as cleverly as in OTL 1870 (likely, since Bismarck is in charge), France could end up going to war with the German states AND Britain. This means an even greater French defeat than IOTL and a lot of butterflies towards WWI.

I'll bite, how would Bismark convince Britain to join in?

[joho6411]

Originally Posted by Uniform 419

I'll bite, how would Bismark convince Britain to join in?

I'll take a bite of that idea as well. How could Bismarck convince Great Britain to join in? BTW congrats, I am the 1001 person to view this thread .

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Uniform 419

I'll bite, how would Bismark convince Britain to join in?

Yeah, that does seem ASB.

[imperialaquila]

Originally Posted by Wendell

Yeah, that does seem ASB.

Maybe if the French violate Belgium? The treaties guaranteeing Belgian neutrality dated from 1839, so they would be in force in 1867. If France invades Belgium in an attempt to outflank the Prussians (maybe the initial battles devolve into Petersburg-style trench warfare), then Britain would be obliged by treaty to intervene against the French, IIRC. I don't think the Brits would join in at the beginning, as they don't have any real stake in either of the combatants. There almost certainly won't be an intervention against the Prussians, since the French will likely be seen as the aggressors and the stronger power of the two, at least initially.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by TyranicusMaximus

The French held the Prussians out of Paris, but otherwise I don't think we're talking about the same war.

Did the Prussians ever intended to occupy Paris? It would look like a very stupid move, in particular after the Commune. IMHO, the Prussians made their point (we can get to Paris) but never intended to occupy the city.

[Mikestone8]

Originally Posted by pompejus

I suppose Prussia annexes it to its Rhine Province. Who would rule it , if it became its own state? The king of the Netherlands*?

Possibly a younger son of the KotN. Iirc he had two or three sons living at the time.

Failing that, the next heir is the former Grand Duke of Nassau. This might be problematic, as he had just lost his state after fighting against Prussia in 1866, but istr that he had sworn allegiance to the King of Prussia following his deposition, so he or his son might be acceptable. OTL, the son had only daughters, so if that isn't butterflied, the eldest daughter probably gets married off to a minor Hohenzollern.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Wendell

So, regardless of whatever other gains might be made, if the Prussians win, then will Luxembourg be annexed to Prussia directly, or would it become/remain a state within some broader definition of Germany emergent after the war?

Luxembourg has quite a long history: it can certainly be annexed to Prussia proper, but it is more likely to become a member of the Reich (maybe under the same Nassua Weilber house who got the title in 1890?) A possible alternative might be similar to what happened IOTL (Luxembourg was declared perpetually neutral in 1867, and the fortress was razed to the ground)

[Imladrik]

Originally Posted by Wendell

But A-L had been part of the HRE and Dutch Limburg had been in the German Confederation. That said, Bismarck not wanting to make enemies is totally within character. However, French obsession with recovering the area always seemed obsessive to me.

Maybe because it was considered a french territory, which was stolen by the Germans on dubious grounds, that Strasbourg was one of the center of the revolution, that the Marseillaise was composed in Strasbourg, that a lot of famous French came from here (kléber, Kellerman, the Baron Haussman) ?. What seems strange to me is the acceptance of the wildest claims on ground of german nationalism on this board.

Originally Posted by pompejus

All of the Netherlands, Belgium, Northern France (French Hainaut, French Flanders and Artois), southern Lorrain, the Freche Comte, Provence, Switserland, Northern Italy, Bohemia/Moravia, Austria and Liechtenstein had been part of the HRE, still Bismarck didn't try to annex it. Having been part of the HRE isn't a good reason. They might have spoken a German dialect, but that didn't make them German (although I must admit, I have no clue how the Alsation and Lorranians saw themselves, maybe they did consider themselves German in 1869). Still there have been worse reasons for annexations, it is not as if France had a good claim on the areas when they annexed them (besides that ridiculous Rhineborder idea). I just think Bismarck was brilliant in not wanting to annex it, too bad he was overruled.

From what i know, the alsatian considered themselves French, as they participated in the Revolution, and almost 10% of the population fled Alsace-Moselle when it was annexed by the Germans. In WWI many Alsatian sought to fight in the navy to avoid the fight against the French. At the end of the war, independance was quickly declared by the Soviet of Strasbourg, but no move was done to resist the French annexation. For the Mosellans i don't know.

Originally Posted by imperialaquila

Maybe if the French violate Belgium? The treaties guaranteeing Belgian neutrality dated from 1839, so they would be in force in 1867. If France invades Belgium in an attempt to outflank the Prussians (maybe the initial battles devolve into Petersburg-style trench warfare), then Britain would be obliged by treaty to intervene against the French, IIRC. I don't think the Brits would join in at the beginning, as they don't have any real stake in either of the combatants. There almost certainly won't be an intervention against the Prussians, since the French will likely be seen as the aggressors and the stronger power of the two, at least initially.

Come one even Nappy the Third wasn't stupid enough to do this ! You really think that for a war against Prussia who just beat the crap out of the Austrian ass, they will alienate the british ? The only stupidest thing i can think of is Hitler attempting the unspeakable sea mammal while declaring war to USSR.

Anyway, i think that some people overestimate the power of the Prussian army alone. For what reason will the german states join Prussia if it declares war on dubious grounds (Luxembourg a part of germany ? Nobody believed that) to France ? And if the French generals aren't the same, Sedan will certainly not happen (as it was an unlikely succession of events that led to this defeat). So French defeat ? Maybe. Prussia getting the same victory as in 1870 ? A very small probability, much lower than the French winning for example.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Imladrik

Maybe because it was considered a french territory, which was stolen by the Germans on dubious grounds, that Strasbourg was one of the center of the revolution, that the Marseillaise was composed in Strasbourg, that a lot of famous French came from here (kléber, Kellerman, the Baron Haussman) ?. What seems strange to me is the acceptance of the wildest claims on ground of german nationalism on this board.



From what i know, the alsatian considered themselves French, as they participated in the Revolution, and almost 10% of the population fled Alsace-Moselle when it was annexed by the Germans. In WWI many Alsatian sought to fight in the navy to avoid the fight against the French. At the end of the war, independance was quickly declared by the Soviet of Strasbourg, but no move was done to resist the French annexation. For the Mosellans i don't know.



Come one even Nappy the Third wasn't stupid enough to do this ! You really think that for a war against Prussia who just beat the crap out of the Austrian ass, they will alienate the british ? The only stupidest thing i can think of is Hitler attempting the unspeakable sea mammal while declaring war to USSR.

Anyway, i think that some people overestimate the power of the Prussian army alone. For what reason will the german states join Prussia if it declares war on dubious grounds (Luxembourg a part of germany ? Nobody believed that) to France ? And if the French generals aren't the same, Sedan will certainly not happen (as it was an unlikely succession of events that led to this defeat). So French defeat ? Maybe. Prussia getting the same victory as in 1870 ? A very small probability, much lower than the French winning for example.

Bismarck was certainly against annexing A-L. However his wishes were trumped by a combination of German nationalism, the intervention of the king and the need to have a visible reminder of the proclamation of the Reich (hence the annexation of A-L as Reichsland). The last is by no means irrelevant: new nations need a founding myth.

There is no way that Bismarck declares war, btw. He'll scream his peaceful intents from the top of the roof and will try to set up an European conference to solve the issue (as it happened IOTL with the conference of London). At the same time he'll manage to goad Nappy into a declaration of war: after all, since the fortress of Luxembourg is manned by Prussian troops, Bismarck does not need to make the first move.
It should also be mentioned that after the partition of 1839 Luxembourg has a strong German majority: most of the French-speaking portions of old Luxembourg were given to Belgium.

In 1867 the French are even weaker than in 1870: even the chassepots have not yet been produced en masse. OTOH, Bismarck has already reached an agreement with Bavaria and the other German states, and has already had the first pour parlers with the Russians (and Austria is still reeling from the defeat in 1866, and has not yet sorted out the Hungarian problems).
A war in 1867 would result in an even easier German victory.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Imladrik

Maybe because it was considered a french territory, which was stolen by the Germans on dubious grounds, that Strasbourg was one of the center of the revolution, that the Marseillaise was composed in Strasbourg, that a lot of famous French came from here (kléber, Kellerman, the Baron Haussman) ?. What seems strange to me is the acceptance of the wildest claims on ground of german nationalism on this board.

Apparently ethnicity and language constitute dubious grounds Yes, there were Francophones there, but look at the names of the individuals you referenced, and dare to tell me that they'd have those names if they were from anywhere else in France.

[Imladrik]

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

Bismarck was certainly against annexing A-L. However his wishes were trumped by a combination of German nationalism, the intervention of the king and the need to have a visible reminder of the proclamation of the Reich (hence the annexation of A-L as Reichsland). The last is by no means irrelevant: new nations need a founding myth.

Yes, it's what i say, Prussia needed to annex something to create Germany, but even if the Kaiser needed it as a founding myth, the French needed it too, as part of the French Nationalist myth.

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

There is no way that Bismarck declares war, btw. He'll scream his peaceful intents from the top of the roof and will try to set up an European conference to solve the issue (as it happened IOTL with the conference of London). At the same time he'll manage to goad Nappy into a declaration of war: after all, since the fortress of Luxembourg is manned by Prussian troops, Bismarck does not need to make the first move.
It should also be mentioned that after the partition of 1839 Luxembourg has a strong German majority: most of the French-speaking portions of old Luxembourg were given to Belgium.

Yeah it's the problem of this scenario, war is difficult to achieve, as somebody will propose a conference. Or maybe, Nappy just occupy Luxembourg with Dutch authorization, and cut the supply to the Prussian garrison, forcing them into either war if they attack, or humiliation if they peacefully retire. Also, Luxemburgish is a Germanic language, it's not German. So no German-majority, but Luxemburgish majority.

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

In 1867 the French are even weaker than in 1870: even the chassepots have not yet been produced en masse. OTOH, Bismarck has already reached an agreement with Bavaria and the other German states, and has already had the first pour parlers with the Russians (and Austria is still reeling from the defeat in 1866, and has not yet sorted out the Hungarian problems).
A war in 1867 would result in an even easier German victory.

The chassepot was introduced in 1866 and some units already got it by 1867, and the old muzzle-loading rifle were massivelly converted into Tabatière Rifle (breech-loading), so i think the point is a little moot. Russia would not intervene anyway, and no, the victory will certainly not be easier for Prussia. And no, despite the myths of German invicibility and Frenchmen being Cheese-Eating Monkey, the 1870 war was not one sided before Sedan, and the Sedan disaster was avoidable (simply with a different marechal, Bazaine was not in a very good relationship with Nappy after the Mexican adventure)

Originally Posted by Wendell

Apparently ethnicity and language constitute dubious grounds Yes, there were Francophones there, but look at the names of the individuals you referenced, and dare to tell me that they'd have those names if they were from anywhere else in France.

Most Alsatian weren't even Francophones, but they still considered themselves French. They got an history with France, but not with Prussia. And if we talk about language, yes Alsatian is a Germanic Language (even if people call it a dialect of german, it's very different from Hochdeutsch) but not the German language. As i said, the Alsatian were active participant of the French Revolution, massively voted for Nappy the Third, and massively fled in France after the Prussian Annexation. If they were not linguisticaly linked to France (like half of France in those time, yes it's paradoxal), they were ideoligicaly linked to France due to common history. Also, do you consider the Dutch to be Germans ?