WI: Earlier Franco-Prussian War?

[Wendell]

What would be the consequences for Europe if France and Prussia went to war over the Luxembourg Crisis?

[Perkeo]

If Prussia acts as cleverly as in OTL 1870 (likely, since Bismarck is in charge), France could end up going to war with the German states AND Britain. This means an even greater French defeat than IOTL and a lot of butterflies towards WWI.

[vended]

Well, I don't see how Bismarck could do the same propaganda of united german states against french aggressors if it's Prussia who's declaring war over a peaceful trade between France and the low countries.

[TheNordicBrit]

It's likely that it'd be much the same as the future Franco-Prussian War in which Prussia united all of Germany. However they may get Luxembourg in the peace-treaty too.

[wolf_brother]

Earlier Franco-Prussian War means France wins, with the possibly Britain of joining in favor of France. Without or without British support though France gets Luxembourg, and it becomes a point of contention between the two continental powers, ie Germany's Alsace-Lorraine.

[imperialaquila]

Originally Posted by vended

Well, I don't see how Bismarck could do the same propaganda of united german states against french aggressors if it's Prussia who's declaring war over a peaceful trade between France and the low countries.

But it's a French takeover of German-speaking lands, thus cause for alarm for every good German nationalist.

I think Prussia can still squeak out a win, but it will be quite a bit harder than OTL since they haven't fully implemented the lessons of the Seven Weeks' War. Maybe some proto-trench warfare settles in after the initial Prussian advance?

[Perkeo]

Originally Posted by vended

Well, I don't see how Bismarck could do the same propaganda of united german states against french aggressors if it's Prussia who's declaring war over a peaceful trade between France and the low countries.

Making sure France declares War first is one of the things Bismarck would have to accomplish just as well as he did in OTL 1870.

Besides, Luxemburg was still part of the German customs union and there was a Fortresses of the German Confederation with Prussian troops in it. So it was not quite that simple for France to just say "not your buisiness".

[Max Sinister]

Don't forget to consider that Napoleon just had to retreat from Mexico in 1867.

[wolf_brother]

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

Don't forget to consider that Napoleon just had to retreat from Mexico in 1867.

So he has a large veteran army on his hands now with nothing to do, and here come the Prussians trying to start trouble...

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

So he has a large veteran army on his hands now with nothing to do, and here come the Prussians trying to start trouble...

A "large veteran army" may be something of an exaggeration. It's true, however, that the French standing army was significantly larger than the Prussian one: hence French plans called for an early invasion of Rhineland, taking advantage of the time required by the German Confederation (and sundry allies) to mobilise. It did not happen IOTL: French armies moved toward the border at a snail's pace and the German mobilization was much faster than any one expected. IIRC, there was also an issue on how to progress the war, assuming that the French could easily bridge the Rhine and occupy the river lands: the rivers do not go in the direction of the invasion route, and there was a single railway line which could be easily cut.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Damn, that actually works very well with my old TL... Wish I'd known about it.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by TheNordicBrit

It's likely that it'd be much the same as the future Franco-Prussian War in which Prussia united all of Germany. However they may get Luxembourg in the peace-treaty too.

This is what I had suspected. Do any other butterflies come to mind?

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

Don't forget to consider that Napoleon just had to retreat from Mexico in 1867.

A fair point. This 1867 could be a rather bad year for French foreign policy.

[Wendell]

Would this in any way effect what France has to permit to be annexed to Germany, and could this change the status of A-L within the German Empire?

[pompejus]

Originally Posted by Wendell

Would this in any way effect what France has to permit to be annexed to Germany, and could this change the status of A-L within the German Empire?

Am I the only one who thinks it might avoid a German Alsace-Lorraine? I believe that Bismarck didn't really wanted it and the Germans might see the adition of Luxemburg as a very good price to get from France (maybe even with France still paying the Dutch king for it).

Speaking about the Dutch king, Dutch parliament wasn't really happy with Willem III selling Luxemburg and potentialy getting involved in a Franco-Prussian war. The war could have some very interesting consequences for the Dutch monarchy, certainly considering that Willem III (king Gorilla) wasn't very populair.

This is of course assuming the Netherlands does not get involved in the war. It is possible it would get involved, leading to even more interesting consequences, depending on who wins and on whose site the Netherlands is (I assume on the French site, although the Prussian/German-Dutch relationship is far better than the Franco-Dutch).

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by pompejus

Am I the only one who thinks it might avoid a German Alsace-Lorraine? I believe that Bismarck didn't really wanted it and the Germans might see the adition of Luxemburg as a very good price to get from France (maybe even with France still paying the Dutch king for it).

Speaking about the Dutch king, Dutch parliament wasn't really happy with Willem III selling Luxemburg and potentialy getting involved in a Franco-Prussian war. The war could have some very interesting consequences for the Dutch monarchy, certainly considering that Willem III (king Gorilla) wasn't very populair.

This is of course assuming the Netherlands does not get involved in the war. It is possible it would get involved, leading to even more interesting consequences, depending on who wins and on whose site the Netherlands is (I assume on the French site, although the Prussian/German-Dutch relationship is far better than the Franco-Dutch).

Then could Germany have also acquired Dutch Limburg?

Why wouldn't Bismark have sought Alsace-Lorraine in this hypothetical Luxembourg War?

[wolf_brother]

Why does everyone assume an earlier Franco-Prussian War is going to led to an instant Prussian curbstomp? Even IOTL the war was alot closer than most people (especially on these boards) would have you believe.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Why does everyone assume an earlier Franco-Prussian War is going to led to an instant Prussian curbstomp? Even IOTL the war was alot closer than most people (especially on these boards) would have you believe.

I just want to know how it would play out, and would like the consequences of such a war to be discussed. Who wins is only a part of that discussion. Though, I am curious, was a French victory possible, and would Prussia be as successful getting the smaller German states into the war?

[pompejus]

Originally Posted by Wendell

Then could Germany have also acquired Dutch Limburg?

Why wouldn't Bismark have sought Alsace-Lorraine in this hypothetical Luxembourg War?

The only part of the Netherlands the Germans/Prussians had some claim to was Limburg. so yes, that would probably annexed in case the Netherlands would get involved in the war.

The reason Bismarck didn't want Alsac-Lorraine, (at least to, I believe, Susano, but I heard it from other people too) was that he didn't want to anger France after the war. The reason he was so lenient to Austria was to not make an enemy, he wanted to do that to France too, but was overruled by the king. (This could be a reason for Limburg to remain Dutch btw, annexing it would vertainly push the Netherlands into the French and anti-German camp.) Germany didn't have a good claim towards Alsace-Lorraine anyway, as it wasn't part of the German confederacy and had been French since before the revolutionairy wars.

[Max Sinister]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Why does everyone assume an earlier Franco-Prussian War is going to led to an instant Prussian curbstomp? Even IOTL the war was alot closer than most people (especially on these boards) would have you believe.

It was?? Did the French win at least one major battle?

[TyranicusMaximus]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Why does everyone assume an earlier Franco-Prussian War is going to led to an instant Prussian curbstomp? Even IOTL the war was alot closer than most people (especially on these boards) would have you believe.

The French held the Prussians out of Paris, but otherwise I don't think we're talking about the same war.