America loses the Spanish-American War

Kvasir · Apr 22, 2011

Under a scenario where Spain gets its act together in the 19th Century with respect to Cuba and Puerto Rico; such that they are more stable, with more rights and better integrated within Spain, what would happen if America went to war with Spain and lost?

I'm thinking America is on the rise, there are some residual Independence movements in Cuba and America misread the situation. Spain is better armed and doesn't abandon the islands but instead give America a bloody nose.

What effect would such a loss have on America?

Mumby · Apr 22, 2011

Well, America was mostly acting on behalf of the Monroe Doctrine at first and became more actively imperialist later. This loss would have embittered the Americans and they would have looked for other avenues for expansion, most likely Mexico.

More importantly, seeing America beaten by a relatively unimportant power, would have emboldened Europeans when it came to the Americas, so you could see a very different Venezuela.

Arrix85 · Apr 22, 2011

Even if Spain does better in the 19th century and its army and navy are more powerful I really don't see it winning a war on the american doorstep, the war would be longer and bloodier for the Americans, but the logistics remains a nightmare for the spanish. The objective for Spain would be to avoid the war completely, but Cuba was pretty yummy for the USA.

That said I don't know if Americans would have had the political will to fight an harder war than OTL, so if your scenario happens the USA could enter an even more insolationist period, not entering WWI. Lack of gains vs Spain would also compromise the american presence in the Western Pacific (so altering the rivalry with Japan later on).

Grey Wolf · Apr 22, 2011

If the Spanish navy is as strong as the US media feared it was, and if the Spanish army on land can throw any sneak US landing back into the sea, there would be incentive for other powers to intervene to try to bring about a resolution to the conflict

US public opinion is not going to swing wholeheartedly behind the war once it is known that the Cuban revolutionarries they had presumed were strong and just waiting for power are much weaker. It will be like the Bay of Pigs in this

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Kvasir · Apr 22, 2011

Yeah I can't work out in my own head whether it will lead to America humiliated looking for revenge or some other campaign to renew its confidence (South/Central America, Mexico?) or whether it leads to a fresh bout of hyper isolationism?

I also wonder what American and Spanish relations are like with Japan in such a timeline where the Philippines are under the control of an at least reasonably competent Spain.

Arrix85: assuming Spanish troops are on Cuba and are well armed and competently trained with a decent navel presence to boot, Americans could get shot to pieces attempting an amphibious landing which I don't expect the troops will have any training with. Spain doesn't need to invade the American mainland to win the Spanish War IMO.

Know Nothing · Apr 22, 2011

As long as the fortunes of war still favor a certain New York aristocrat/cowboy/naval theoretician/police commissioner/historian, then everything will be all right for America even if Spain wins.

Grimm Reaper · Apr 22, 2011

Arranging for the Spanish navy to be able to match the USN would require massive PODs going back many years.

Arranging for the Spanish army to destroy the American landings in Cuba is actually quite easy to arrange. Arrange for a competent Spanish officer who rushes every soldier he can against the American landings. The 300 soldiers on the spot sound the alert and use their rifles and any heavier weapons to rake the Americans as they please, after which the arrival of the rest of the 5000 soldiers not withdrawn in this TL destroys or captures the @20,000 Americans.

Kvasir · Apr 22, 2011

Grimm Reaper said:
Arranging for the Spanish navy to be able to match the USN would require massive PODs going back many years.

Arranging for the Spanish army to destroy the American landings in Cuba is actually quite easy to arrange. Arrange for a competent Spanish officer who rushes every soldier he can against the American landings. The 300 soldiers on the spot sound the alert and use their rifles and any heavier weapons to rake the Americans as they please, after which the arrival of the rest of the 5000 soldiers not withdrawn in this TL destroys or captures the @20,000 Americans.

I was thinking a ~1850's POD with a Spain more paranoid that the foreign powers want her colonies and the best way to save them is aggressive military build up and preparation rather than just trying to play nice with everyone else. But while being militarily quite gun hoe, I'd imagine a political solution to Cuba/Puerto Rico with autonomy and rights for the minorities.

We could also have some kind of military alliance with some other powers if Spain can't win on their own, but I think they probably could. America hadn't had a war with a foreign power since Mexico in the 1840's and there only real experienced commanders were old civil war veterans. I also imagine a Spain investing more in military development.

But Grimm, what would America's response be?

Grey Wolf · Apr 22, 2011

The Spanish ships were well enough designed, they just need to be maintained properly and crewed and commanded better

One of them was a Garibaldi but hardly performed like it

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

9 Fanged Hummingbird · Apr 22, 2011

I love how almost any pod about America invariably leads to people claiming the USA will conquer Mexico. USA loses to the Spanish in 1898? Conquer Mexico! CSA defeats the USA and establishes their own country? Conquer Mexico! Fascist regime takes over the nation? Conquer Mexico! Nothing changes whatsoever in the Mexican-American War? Conquer Mexico! I don't see how blunted US imperialistic efforts in the Caribbean results in them invading (and conquering) the second-largest North American country (in terms of population and whatnot) especially when said country is more stable than usual and not doing bad at all, really.

Cuāuhtemōc · Apr 22, 2011

9 Fanged Hummingbird said:
I love how almost any pod about America invariably leads to people claiming the USA will conquer Mexico. USA loses to the Spanish in 1898? Conquer Mexico! CSA defeats the USA and establishes their own country? Conquer Mexico! Fascist regime takes over the nation? Conquer Mexico! Nothing changes whatsoever in the Mexican-American War? Conquer Mexico! I don't see how blunted US imperialistic efforts in the Caribbean results in them invading (and conquering) the second-largest North American country (in terms of population and whatnot) especially when said country is more stable than usual and not doing bad at all, really.

Because Mexicans are brown and Spanish-speaking thus incompetent compared to God-fearing Americans.

It devolves into misconceptions that the USA is destined to become a superpower.

Know Nothing · Apr 22, 2011

9 Fanged Hummingbird said:
I love how almost any pod about America invariably leads to people claiming the USA will conquer Mexico. USA loses to the Spanish in 1898? Conquer Mexico! CSA defeats the USA and establishes their own country? Conquer Mexico! Fascist regime takes over the nation? Conquer Mexico! Nothing changes whatsoever in the Mexican-American War? Conquer Mexico! I don't see how blunted US imperialistic efforts in the Caribbean results in them invading (and conquering) the second-largest North American country (in terms of population and whatnot) especially when said country is more stable than usual and not doing bad at all, really.

It's because you have to blunt the demographic and territorial growth of America in the first half of the 19th century, as well as reverse the infighting and decay in Mexico during the same timeperiod. So post-1783 it's tough and post-1815 it's nearly impossible to stop the American surge into the western part of the continent, at least a large portion of it.

While all Spain has to do is maintain a stronger navy and they can snuff out any threat from the Americans since they had kept themselves artificially weak in the 1890s. A couple extra warships and/or better commanded warships and Spain is fine.

There's no need to resort to false racism arguments or play the victim card.

Grimm Reaper · Apr 22, 2011

Kvasir, as it was it would have taken an immense effort on the part of Spain to begin to match the naval expansion the US was going to launch within a decade of 1898, probably an effort Spain was not capable of, so any Spanish naval improvement might just trigger a US response earlier.

There's really nothing Spain needed to do with the army compared to what the US had except that the senior officers in Cuba appear to have all been either inept or worse.

Grey Wolf, proper crews and upkeep don't do much when your cruisers are up against battleships and your destroyers against cruisers.

Kvasir · Apr 22, 2011

@Drago & 9FH: Well let's state as axiomatic that there is a growing number of Americans clambering for war, including Theodore Rooservelt. They are hardly going to go North into Canada (or East to Bermuda for that matter) and enter war with the British Empire. By the 1890's the rest of the World has already being claimed and America basically are annexing uninhabited islands for Guano and trying to get some influence in the small Central American states.

If there aren't any victories in Cuba or Puerto Rico they are probably going to to cut off from the Caribbean. That leaves the Pacific and Mexico.

Now we can note that the Americans have being taking Mexican territory before and we can further note that in 1910 Mexico descends into Revolution. America is a much weaker country and an easier target. So if America are licking there wounds and are looking for payback, interfering in Mexican affairs and taking some of the border areas is a plausible scenario.

It's not really racism.

Grimm Reaper · Apr 22, 2011

It was, however, seen as axiomatic by Kaiser Wilhelm II and a remarkable number of prominent Germans who otherwise appeared functionally sane that the US would, indeed, the US must conquer Mexico and all of Central America, which led to some most unfortunate ideas in Berlin diplomatic circles during and immediately prior to WWI.

Kvasir · Apr 22, 2011

Grimm Reaper said:
Kvasir, as it was it would have taken an immense effort on the part of Spain to begin to match the naval expansion the US was going to launch within a decade of 1898, probably an effort Spain was not capable of, so any Spanish naval improvement might just trigger a US response earlier.

There's really nothing Spain needed to do with the army compared to what the US had except that the senior officers in Cuba appear to have all been either inept or worse.

Grey Wolf, proper crews and upkeep don't do much when your cruisers are up against battleships and your destroyers against cruisers.

My understanding was that the American navy wasn't that amazing in the 1890's, with really inaccurate shooting. I suppose America could build up their navy after the war and in revenge call for a SAW2, but that would only encourage Spain to build up their military faster and seek allies. They could team up with Britain more or Bismark's Germany who I believe wanted Haiti.

Also I doubt Spain's military build up in the period preceding the war in like the '60s-80's would concern America who were occupied with other concerns.

Grimm Reaper said:
It was, however, seen as axiomatic by Kaiser Wilhelm II and a remarkable number of prominent Germans who otherwise appeared functionally sane that the US would, indeed, the US must conquer Mexico and all of Central America, which led to some most unfortunate ideas in Berlin diplomatic circles during and immediately prior to WWI.

True but Roosevelt and the war hawks did exist.

Grimm Reaper · Apr 22, 2011

Neither the American nor Spanish fleets were very accurate in their shooting but when the Spanish fleet is forced to pit torpedo boat destroyers against armored cruisers and armored cruisers against battleships while Spain's one battleship is laid up in home waters...

Kvasir · Apr 22, 2011

Grimm Reaper said:
Neither the American nor Spanish fleets were very accurate in their shooting but when the Spanish fleet is forced to pit torpedo boat destroyers against armored cruisers and armored cruisers against battleships while Spain's one battleship is laid up in home waters...

I'm imagining a far stronger Spanish Navy than OTL though and my point was that since America wasn't brilliant at shooting, that improvements from say British experts and perhaps experience from a navel conflict somewhere previously could give the Spanish a nice advantage without becoming a British equivalent navy.

Do you suppose it is likely that America would try again even if it was clear that Cuba and Puerto Rico wanted to remain Spanish?

9 Fanged Hummingbird · Apr 22, 2011

Kvasir said:
@Drago & 9FH: Well let's state as axiomatic that there is a growing number of Americans clambering for war, including Theodore Rooservelt. They are hardly going to go North into Canada (or East to Bermuda for that matter) and enter war with the British Empire. By the 1890's the rest of the World has already being claimed and America basically are annexing uninhabited islands for Guano and trying to get some influence in the small Central American states.

If there aren't any victories in Cuba or Puerto Rico they are probably going to to cut off from the Caribbean. That leaves the Pacific and Mexico.

Now we can note that the Americans have being taking Mexican territory before and we can further note that in 1910 Mexico descends into Revolution. America is a much weaker country and an easier target. So if America are licking there wounds and are looking for payback, interfering in Mexican affairs and taking some of the border areas is a plausible scenario.

It's not really racism.

What it is is lazy. Mexico was not in a constant state of anarchy or civil war, and before the revolution during the Porfiriato Mexico was in a state of economic and political stability, not to mention its military was doing quite well, being the first people in the world to adopt semi-automatic rifles. If the US can't beat the Spanish what makes you think Mexico's going to hand them land? Seriously, this forum has some sort of sick fetish with destroying Mexico. Mexico is probably taken over more often here than Nazi Germany, or Poland. Why do you people think every American is chomping at the bit to conquer Mexico regardless of the cost in lives and pointlessness of such an act? Why do you people think Mexico will always lose despite it's political situation or whatever? Seriously, this is just the most annoying cliche now.

Kvasir · Apr 22, 2011

9 Fanged Hummingbird said:
What it is is lazy. Mexico was not in a constant state of anarchy or civil war, and before the revolution during the Porfiriato Mexico was in a state of economic and political stability, not to mention its military was doing quite well, being the first people in the world to adopt semi-automatic rifles. If the US can't beat the Spanish what makes you think Mexico's going to hand them land? Seriously, this forum has some sort of sick fetish with destroying Mexico. Mexico is probably taken over more often here than Nazi Germany, or Poland. Why do you people think every American is chomping at the bit to conquer Mexico regardless of the cost in lives and pointlessness of such an act? Why do you people think Mexico will always lose despite it's political situation or whatever? Seriously, this is just the most annoying cliche now.

But it was in civil war in 1910 which is after the SAW which is when I'm saying American involvement in Mexico is more likely.

I'm not someone who does what you describe. Also America had being taking land from Mexico for decades and further America was stronger than Mexico even though Mexico had had some years of stability.

The SAW was a navel conflict while an attack into Mexico would be terrestrial. The area bordering America is low density.

Just because often people have the US attacking Mexico doesn't in anyway shape or form mean this example of a future Mexican Campaign is lazy or unlikely.

If you don't believe an America; humiliated by Spain a decade previous has an administration looking for something to restore some prestige and therefore improves their military and is looking for an excuse and the Mexico descends into civil war, doesn't lead to a possible American intervention then it is not me that is being lazy in the imagination department.