Louis XV of France dies in infancy

I tried searching for this, but I couldn't find anything except the scenario being suggested as a way of establishing a constitutional monarchy in France. Anyway, this is exactly what it says on the tin. Louis, grandson of King Louis XIV and son of the dauphin dies sometime before his grandfather. Since, I believe the King of Spain is blocked from the succession by treaty, the succession would fall upon the son of Louis XIV's brother, Phillipe II Duke of Orleans, who in OTL served as regent for Louis XV. Since his son was born before Louis XV, I think he would come to the throne sometime either in the 1720's or early 1730's, though I'm not sure how long lived King Phillipe VII will be thanks to actually being on the crown.

So, basically, the OTL House of Orleans comes to the throne in 1715. How do King Phillipe VII and his son who in this timeline would be known as King Louis XV, compare with Louis XIV's historical successor? What happens to France? How is European politics affected by the succession of the Orleans branch of the French Royal family?

Glass Onion said:

I tried searching for this, but I couldn't find anything except the scenario being suggested as a way of establishing a constitutional monarchy in France.

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Possible, but rather difficult. The trend towards absolutism was already firmly entrenched in Franceby this point. However, that doesn't prevent a more liberal monarch from enacting reforms.

So, basically, the OTL House of Orleans comes to the throne in 1715. How do King Phillipe VII and his son who in this timeline would be known as King Louis XV, compare with Louis XIV's historical successor? What happens to France? How is European politics affected by the succession of the Orleans branch of the French Royal family?

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If he can manage to be more interested in politics and less decadent and wasteful of France's money, quite a bit I suspect...

In this time line the King at the time the revolution happened would be a Jacobin!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Philippe_II,_Duke_of_Orléans#Liberal_Ideology

Analytical Engine said:

Possible, but rather difficult. The trend towards absolutism was already firmly entrenched in Franceby this point. However, that doesn't prevent a more liberal monarch from enacting reforms.



If he can manage to be more interested in politics and less decadent and wasteful of France's money, quite a bit I suspect...

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I think the idea comes an understanding that members of the Orleans branch of the Royal family, specifically the Duke at the time of the Revolution were more open to compromise than the main branch of the Bourbon monarchy. Hence, if you assume some kind of reckoning in the late 18th or early 19th century, an Orleanist King, according to the theory, would be more willing to accept a constitutional-British style-monarchy than the historical King Louis XVI was. Now, if the family is actually in power you could argue that they'd end up politically resembling their historical cousins rather than their historical selves thanks to the pressures of power. But if you discount butterflies/pressures entirely and make it so that Louis Phillipe De Orleans is born, develops the same ideas, and some kind of confrontation between the estates happens sometime under his reign, a constitutional monarchy is as likely an outcome as any.

Unfortunately butterflies make that scenario incredibly unlikely. Even if we allow for Louis Phillipe's birth, if King Phillipe VII and "King Louis XV" (Phillipe's son, not to be confused with the historical King by that name. Phillipe's son was born in 1703, long before the POD so regardless of butterflies, he'll exist.) are better with fiances than the historical King Louis XV, the confrontation may not even happen when it did. Given butterflies, I'm not sure where this goes.

Derek Pullem said:

In this time line the King at the time the revolution happened would be a Jacobin!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Philippe_II,_Duke_of_Orléans#Liberal_Ideology

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I feel kind of guilty speculating about this, but perhaps a better way of doing that would be to either to have Louis XV's grandsons die in infancy, or be born female. That way, you get the excess of Louis XV, and Louis Phillipe's father as his immediate successor.

If Louis XV were to die in infancy, this would lead to a succession War in France between the Spanish Kings and the House of Orléans.
The Treaty of Utrecht still remains a debate among French monarchists to this day, explaining partially the debate between Orléanists and Legitimists (though there are a lot more Orléanists nowadays).

Legitimists argue that a Treaty can't go against the Lois Fondamentales of the French Kingdom and thus Salic Law. Thus, the Spanish Bourbons, as direct descendants of Louis XIV, have more rights to the crown than the Orléans, descendant of Louis XIV's brother Philippe d'Orléans, because of Primogeniture. They also argue that the treaty only states that the French King can't be King of Spain I believe, meaning they don't wish for a Union of Crowns.

Orléanists, on the other hand, argue that Philip V of Spain (Louis XIV's grandson) had renounced his rights for him and his descendants. This thus excludes the Spanish Kings and their descendants, meaning that the last branch of Louis XIV's descendants can't get the throne, leading to the Orléanist claim.

Thus, two candidates rises in this circumstances : King Philip V of Spain, and Duke Philippe of Orléans (OTL Regent for OTL Louis XV). Nothing forbades Philip V from abdicating Spain to gain the French Crown. And nothing forbades to make it so that there is no Union of Crowns. This won't go well, but he could still argue his rights to the French throne this way.

Now, it's true that Philippe d'Orléans has more chances of gaining the crown given that the rest of Europe won't wish for a Franco-Spanish Union, even if Philip V promises this won't happen later. Thus, we would likely see an "everyone against the Spanish King" scenario. So, it is likely that he becomes King Philippe VII of France. He might thus pursue similar policies he had as Regent, but with more effective power since he will be King. Since he was pretty good at politics, it can only bode well for France.

Regarding the time of death of Philippe d'Orléans, I don't think it would change much if he became King Philippe VII : as Regent, he died in 1723. A regent is basically a "King when the real King is too young". So, he would probably reign eight years. His son would thus become King Louis XV in 1723.

Yorel, if there is a war against Spain's ambitions (as it would be seen) then the likelihood is that Spain ends up defeated and stripped of some possessions, since presumably Britain is going to jump in on them - with the odd effect of allying Britain and France in the immediate aftermath of Louis XIV...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I'm skeptical that there would be renewed war over the crown, or that an attempt to abdicate the Spanish crown fro the French one would be taken seriously. Britain and Austria just won the War of Spanish Succession; Britain and Austria back Orleans and regard the "Legitimist" claim as complete gibberish; even if he can delude himself into believing the French support the Legitimist claim, he's going to be fighting enemies that outclass him. Could be a good way to see the Spanish Empire dismembered, actually.

Orleans is already a very different kettle of fish from the old Bourbons, though. They've already sold nearly all their rural, agricultural land and invested in shipping, slum housing and commercial real estate in Paris, banking and other ventures. The Orleans are likely to be just as politically absolutist as their old cousins were - but they have no sympathy for the rural nobility because they aren't such people themselves. We'd recognise very few names at Court in such a timeline, since they'd be newly-ennobled bankers most likely. I suspect an 18th century Orleans monarchy would be making serious effort to get a proper land appraisal and national property tax in place that doesn't exempt the nobility. Not sure how much they'd cut expenditures, but they'll be doing a lot better for revenue than OTL's Louis XV and XVI.