The Stupidity of Admiral Essen

All right, I've made four timeline attempts on here so far. The first was about Austria, and it was a fiasco. The second was about Italy, and it started promising, but eventually turned implausible as well. The third was about Germany and Britain together, and it started relatively promising as well, but it stalled. The fourth timeline was about my version of Reverse Sealion, and it is on-going, but it's in the ASB forum.

The conclusion should be that I am not capable of writing any plausible timeline from start to finish. A sane person would call it a day and quit writing TL's.

Unfortunately for this board, I am not a sane person. (Well, not really)

I therefore present to you my new timeline, The Stupidity of Admiral Essen [1]. Based on the discussion Eurofed inspired about CP Sweden and Italy but an Entente victory, this timeline explores exactly that. And it has some... interesting consequences.

I apologize beforehand for creating parallels with Onkel Willie's timelines when we get to the later stages of the TL. This is, however, nearly unavoidable, since Onkel Willie has explored so much alternate Germany's, that there is simply nothing left. I'll try to keep as much originality as possible, though.

Well, that's enough for the introduction, so here's the timeline, and I would like to ask you to please read and review.

[1] Stupid title, I know, but I couldn't come up with anything better. Suggestions would be appreciated.

In the early twentieth Century, Europe stood on top of the world. It had colonized most of Africa and significant parts of Asia and the Americas. Nevertheless Europe was not an unity. Several powers dominated the continent, the most important of which being Germany, Russia, Britain and France. Peace had existed between the Great Powers since the Russo-Turkish War ended in 1878 but tensions remained high and would eventually come to an explosion in one of the greatest wars the world had ever seen. Germany had formed the Triple Alliance with Austria-Hungary and Italy and thus dominated the centre of Europe. On the other side, France and Russia had concluded an alliance and recently a reluctant Britain had joined in with the Entente Cordiale with France in 1904 and an agreement with Russia in 1907. Tensions were building and the world would go to war very soon.

On June 28th, 1914, Austrian archduke Franz Ferdinand was shot while visiting Sarajevo. The assassin, Gavrilo Prinzip, was a member of the Serbian ‘Black Hand’ organization. Austria-Hungary was greatly angered with the Serbs, and after some reluctance, they presented an ultimatum to Serbia that basically took away the country’s sovereignty. Serbia refused and attempted to negotiate but all her efforts were for naught as Austria gladly took the opportunity to remove a great threat from her frontiers. On July 28th, one month after Franz Ferdinand’s murder, Austria declared war on Serbia which brought the alliance systems into conflict. Russia mobilized against Austria. Germany, whose war plans were based on attacking before France and Russia could be fully prepared, demanded that Russia would stop her mobilization. When the Russians didn’t comply, Germany declared war on Russia on August 1st.


In the Russian navy, admiral Nikolai Essen had expected a war with Germany to come and had drawn plans for if it did. The kingdom of Sweden had been friendly to Germany for quite some time now and had lost Finland to Russia in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars. Essen was sure Sweden would try something if Germany and Russia went to war and the combined German-Swedish fleets could greatly endanger the Russian naval position in the Baltic. Essen was determined to stop that from happening so he took the Russian fleet west on August 9th, eight days after the Germans declared war on Russia, and launched a surprise attack on the Swedish navy.

The Swedes were completely surprised by the sudden Russian attack. They tried to fight off the Russians as well as they could but given the fact that the Russian fleet was stronger and that they had been surprised, they hardly stood a chance and a most of the fleet was sunk. As the Russian fleet returned to Russian harbors, the news leaked to the Swedish parliament which at first couldn’t believe the news. Disbelief soon turned into anger though and many politicians started shouting for war. The Swedish demanded an apology and reparations, but the Russian government, though angered at Essen and willing to grant an apology, was reluctant to pay for repairing the Swedish navy with so much money being needed for the war effort. Some diplomats attempted to prevent the situation from escalating, but in the end, an angered Sweden broke off negotiations with the unwilling Russians and declared war on Russia on August 12th.

To Germany, this came as a pleasant surprise as they hadn’t been expecting to gain another ally and the Entente attack on Sweden was just what they needed to improve their image in neutral countries like the United States. That image hadn’t been that great since Germany had attacked a neutral country as well. On August 4th, German troops had crossed the Belgian border and launched the infamous von Schlieffen plan which had been devised by German commander Alfred von Schlieffen. Von Schlieffen had correctly seen that Germany was headed towards a two-front war and had come up with a plan to eliminate France in six weeks before Russia could be mobilized. In his plan, the French army would be allowed to attack German defenses in Alsace-Lorraine which they desired since they had lost it in 1871 after the Franco-Prussian War. In the meantime, the main German force would smash through Belgium and Dutch Limburg and stab the French army in the back, destroying it in a huge pincer-movement which was estimated to last no more than six weeks. After that, France would sue for peace and German troops could be transferred to the east to fight Russia which was estimated to have just finished mobilizing at that time. The plan was tough as it was and wouldn’t work out the way von Schlieffen estimated. Unlike in the plan, the Belgians declared war and offered tough resistance when Germany invaded, which caused their offensive to be delayed after the fortresses of Liege withstood German attacks for twelve days before surrendering. Also, Britain declared war after Germany violated Belgian neutrality which they had granted in the Treaty of London in 1839, when Belgium had become an independent country. To top it all off, the Russian army was mobilized much quicker than expected and invaded East-Prussia in mid-August. Schlieffen’s successor, Helmut von Moltke, had made some revisions to the plan, removing the attack on Dutch Limburg and adding a stronger force in Alsace-Lorraine, but it is still disputed to this day whether those revisions helped or hindered the German plan. What certainly didn’t help was that von Moltke, when seeing initial failure being replaced with successes in late August, ordered two German divisions to be sent to the east to defeat the Russian thrust into East-Prussia. In the end, they weren’t even helpful in the east anyway because German troops had already defeated the Russians at the battle of Tannenberg. Russia did manage to occupy Austrian Galicia. In the west, the Franco-British army halted the Germans at the battle of the Marne in early September and forced them back to the Aisne. After the ensuing ‘Race to the Sea’, trenches were dug and the western front was soon stuck in horrible trench warfare with neither side able to gain the upper hand.

In the eastern front, the war was more mobile with German and Russian armies fighting several indecisive battles. The Swedes also deployed an army which was sent to the north to fight the Russians in Finland. The Russian armies in Finland managed to hold the first Swedish attacks which were done in the cold of Lapland but nevertheless the Swedes had an advantage in that they only had one front to fight on. The Russians initially had numerical superiority despite the fact that they had to fight on several other fronts as well but as the Swedish army mobilized in force this superiority was undone and in the battle of Tormo in early November, the Russian army was forced back. Sweden started to spread nationalist propaganda in Finland about a liberation war against the Russians which some Finns were inclined to believe even if most of them thought that the Swedes were mostly out for their own gain which was sort of the truth. Sweden wanted to at least gain a sphere of influence in Finland after the war to have a convenient buffer against Russian aggression which the current war had shown as a realistic threat. They were smart enough to see that full incorporation was unrealistic given the fact that quite some Finns hated the Russians and would hate Sweden just as much if it tried to make a province out of Finland. The Swedish government deliberately let the post-war settlement of Finland undecided even if they had their ideas about it.

In the meanwhile, 1914 had passed and 1915 had started with neither side being clearly victorious even if the Central Powers appeared to have the upper hand, occupying much of Belgium and northern France and managing to maintain the status quo in the east. The Ottoman Empire had also joined the war in October 1914 but their war effort was quite miserable and the Russians repeatedly defeated them in the Caucasus. However, Italy was also still neutral despite the fact that it had an alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary. Italy didn’t like the Austrians very much because they had fought against them in their war of independence and they still controlled Trento, Gorizia-Gradisca, Trieste and several other areas with Italian minorities. They didn’t like France either though and the war seemed to be going in Central Power favor. It was in an attempt to break this stalemate that Germany did an offer to Italy. They had managed to persuade Austria-Hungary to cede Trento and Gorizia-Gradisca to Italy in exchange for Italian belligerence. The Italians happily agreed and Italy declared war on France on April 25th, 1914, after sending Italian troops to occupy the newly gained lands.

The Italian declaration of war opened up a new front in the west as France had to send several divisions to the Alps to stop the Italian army. Italian soldiers dreamed of marching through Nice and Marseilles but their dreams turned out to be nightmares as the Alpine warfare was a disaster for Italy. The French easily repealed their attacks in the First, Second and Third Battle of Menton which occurred in May, June and August respectively with Italian losses being three times as high as French ones and very little land gained. Italian armies also attacked further north but their minor victories there were overshadowed by the defeats in the south. By the end of 1915 Italian armies had barely crossed the French border and were an embarrassment to the government in Rome. They hadn’t expected mountain warfare to be this hard. Nevertheless Italy refused the German proposal of sending troops to fight in northern France instead where they would have a much better position and wouldn’t have to fight in mountains. Italian politicians wanted Italy to have victories of her own and refused to send troops north.

Germany did score some victories on the eastern front were they launched the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive in May 1915. The offensive had been meant as a minor effort to straighten the border but turned into a general Russian retreat. German forces easily liberated Poland and marched into Warsaw on August 10th. Most of Galicia was also retaken and German armies entered Lithuania where they took Kaunas but failed to take Vilnius. In the north, Swedish attacks were victorious with more Russian land being taken.

While the attack on Russia had been successful, on the diplomatic front the Germans made a huge blunder that autumn after German submarines had sunk several British ships with American passengers on board. The US government demanded that Germany would stop her unrestricted submarine warfare, but the Germans, encouraged by their successes in convincing Italy to join and conquering Poland, decided not to listen to them which would turn out to be one of the biggest mistakes they would ever make. Some meager compensations were offered but they were all turned down and a renewed ship attack in January raised tensions. The situation was chaotic with some Americans pointing out that the Entente had attacked neutral Sweden and that joining them was perhaps not the best choice. The German and Italian communities were also strongly against war with the Central Powers. Nevertheless German-American hostility grew and the rough treatment of neutrals by the German submarines convinced many that Germany could not be trusted. On February 22nd, 1916, the United States Congress narrowly voted in favor of a declaration of war on Germany. This gave the beleaguered Entente new hope even if their situation remained bad as it would take quite some time before American armies could arrive in significant numbers and have a direct effect on the war effort. For now, the USA was merely a symbolic help and a sign of good news that would come.

While the German military command was surprised by the US declaration of war, they weren’t very frightened as they underestimated American military potential and the war was going in their favor anyway. In the autumn of 1915, they had waged their campaign against the Serbs in the Balkans and managed to defeat them decisively, partly because of Bulgarian help. Serbian troops were forced to retreat into neutral Greece with an Anglo-French force arriving to bolster the line. They would hold out here as good as they would on the Western Front and on the Italian Front. Germany was angered with Italy for not landing troops in Albania to help but the Italian government pointed out that the army was having a hard enough time as it was and couldn’t spare forces for an invasion of Albania. In the end this would turn out to be a bad choice as well as it enabled the Serbians to escape and form a new front in nominally neutral Greece with western support. The Central Powers had not won the war yet even if some Germans thought they had.

In Africa in the meanwhile, the war effort was also going the Entente way with most German colonies being occupied by Entente forces by late 1915. Italian Eritrea and Somaliland were also taken but German armies in East Africa and Italian armies in Libya held out. The Italians even threatened Egypt together with the Ottomans but Australian and New Zealander arrived to bolster British lines here instead of being deployed at Gallipoli, an Ottoman peninsula close to Constantinople, which had been part of a scheme which British naval commander Winston Churchill had thought up. However, with Egypt being threatened, the so-called ‘Anzac’ armies were deployed to the North-African front instead. These forces would defend Egypt and when reinforcements would arrive, they could make a decisive attack west before turning east to defeat the Ottomans like their counterparts from Kuwait and the Russians in the Caucasus were already doing. Triple Entente resistance remained stubborn and renewed hope for American support coming helped boost their morale.

That spring of 1916 Germany decided that it was time for an offensive in the west. Serbia had been eliminated as a threat in the east and with the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive past summer which had greatly weakened the Russians the Germans believed that they weren’t doing anything soon either. They could now concentrate on the west where they launched their spring offensive in March of 1916, attacking near Verdun. Italian armies launched a renewed attack at Menton, the Sixth Battle of Menton which would become famous in Italian propaganda as with the French army being distracted in the north Italy managed to take the small village. When they tried to march on Nice however the French army defeated them and thus Nice would remain French. The Germans were heaving roughly as much success as they made advances towards Verdun but they didn’t succeed in any sort of breakthrough and renewed Franco-British offensives pushed them back. In the end the battle of Verdun would become known as one of the bloodiest battles of the First Great War and also as a sign of the uselessness of the entire conflict.

For Berlin, Vienna and Rome, the war was appearing more useless as well since it had been two years and they still hadn’t won a decisive victory. They offered the Entente a peace treaty which mostly favored the Central Powers although that was considered reasonable since despite claims to the contrary, Germany still appeared to be winning on all her fronts. In the peace proposal, Luxemburg and Briey-Longwy would become German. Poland would be set up as an independent state, with perhaps some border revisions in German favor. Belgium would become a German vassal state. Overseas, Germany claimed the French and Belgian Congo for their ‘Mittelafrika’. Italy demanded Nice, Savoy, Tunisia and Djibouti while Austria-Hungary wanted to set up Serbia, Montenegro and Albania (the latter to Italy’s chagrin) as puppet states. The various powers also demanded war reparations and especially Sweden wanted to impose restrictions on the Russian fleet and get an apology for violating Swedish neutrality accompanied by a significant sum of money, even larger than the sum Sweden had demanded originally. This peace proposal was heavily biased in favor of the Central Powers so the Entente universally rejected it even if some noises of discontent with the entire conflict could be heard in the parliaments in London and Paris. Nevertheless, the war would continue.

In North-Africa, battles were still being fought and the tide was turning in Entente favor. The British army took Tobruk in January 1916 and marched towards Benghazi. The British held the upper hand because they controlled Malta and the Suez canal and since they captured it in late 1915, Sardinia as well. They also had the support of several local tribes in the area. Italy had only colonized Libya in 1912 after they had taken it from the Ottomans and there was still active resistance to Italian rule. The British profited from this and with local help, they managed to take Benghazi in April after receiving reinforcements from other British colonies in the area. Libya would not fall entirely though until the fall of Tripoli in late August 1916. After that, the Italian governor retreated into the Libyan desert to start a guerilla campaign after von Lettow-Vorbecks example in East Africa. This was a total disaster though as Libya was unfit for such a campaign. In December 1916 he was captured by the British and forced to formally surrender Libya to the Entente.

The United States was now rapidly increasing her involvement in the war effort and this did have her influences on the home front where president Wilson was no longer as popular as he had once been. He had hoped to be able to keep the United States out of the war but he had failed and as a result his campaign for re-election failed. Nevertheless the presidential elections of 1916 would end up to be quite close and Wilson would only narrowly lose to republican candidate Charles Evans Hughes who would become the 29th president of the United States. He immediately started to expand the military budget to prepare the United States better for the war effort. Hughes’ election was a big disappointment for the Central Powers who had idealistically hoped that Wilson might be inclined to sign peace with Germany, something which was not realistic as the former president was in favor of continuing the conflict now that it had began. Some German diplomats tried to convince Mexico to attack the United States, but the information leaked to the British and it convinced the Americans that they should continue this war and that Germany could not be trusted. They also began to regard Mexico with suspicion which would have its consequences soon enough.

In the meanwhile Russia had been recovering from her defeat in the previous year and in May of 1916 general Brusilov struck westwards into Austrian Galicia and German-controlled Poland. The Austrians hadn’t been expecting such an attack and were rapidly forced back. The German high command was also stunned but they soon came to their senses and sent reinforcements from the western front to bolster Austrian lines. This help was received with gratitude and it made the Austrians capable of pushing the Russians back somewhat even if much of their advances weren’t undone. Nevertheless it would spell disaster for Russia as Germany realized how much of a threat the Russian bear continued to be. Several German divisions were ordered to go to the east and inflict a decisive defeat on the Russians while the German line in the west was shortened considerably which while freeing up troops also gave up ground. In the east, the situation was now much better for the Central Powers as Sweden had by now rebuilt their navy and was ready to strike along with the Germans. They occupied the Aland Islands in August while the German army attacked north towards Riga which was taken after a bloody siege. The Germans were tempted to advance to the east but they had no intentions to get stuck inside Russia like Napoleon had a century before them and so they struck north instead in the direction of the Russian capital, Petrograd. German troops advanced through Estonia while the Austrians largely pushed the Russians out of their territory (though with considerable German assistance). They also beat the Romanians who had entered the war shortly after the Brusilov offensive. Romania was in a very bad position however and when a quick victory did not come German, Austrian and Bulgarian forces struck and occupied much of the country while they advanced eastwards. On November 11th 1916 Romania requested an armistice which was a forebode of what was coming for Russia as much of Estonia was now occupied by the Germans and Finland was getting restive.

On December 23rd, two days before Christmas, a limited revolt in Russia soon turned into a nightmare with groups demanding that the Tsar would abdicate. Forces from the army refused to shoot on civilians and sided with them. Emperor Nicholas II soon saw that his position was lost and abdicated in favor of his brother Michael, who abdicated as well. On December 26th the republic was proclaimed in Russia after a revolution that seemed to have been relatively bloodless, but the worst was yet to come. For years Russia had been harboring restive communist movements who wanted to depose the Tsar and establish a socialist worker’s paradise. Now Russia had become a republic but it was not enough yet for the communists especially after several ministers of the new republic intended to fight on. Fierce debates were held in the Duma, the Russian parliament, with the French and British ambassadors to Russia pressuring the new republic to fight on. The western powers knew that Russian assistance would be important for winning the war even if American help was pouring in and even Brazil had declared war about pretty much the same reasons the Americans had. Brazilian help was not very important nor was it decisive but it did count and the clock was running against the Central Powers. Most of the German politicians knew it too and they pressured Russia to choose peace. For a few weeks, a strange situation of de facto armistice reigned on the Russian front, but on January 27th 1917 Russia rejected German demands for a surrender, citing the increasing Entente strength at the French and Italian fronts as a reason. Russia would fight on or at least that was what they expected to do.

The German command immediately reacted after the news came in from Russian broadcasts. In an ambitious move, they decided to attack Petrograd which was the capital after all and the loss of which would certainly cause the Russians to sue for peace. They attacked on February 5th and achieved slow progress for the first few days. However, Austrian, Swedish and Ottoman attacks were also made and this greatly increased their speed. Communist and other socialist movements throughout the country were certain that their dream of a socialist state was near and they proclaimed the revolution from Moscow and other cities which brought Russia into even more chaos. German forces broke through and with amazing speed they marched on Petrograd. In response, Finland declared independence on February 28th which caused the Russian military situation to worsen there as well and Swedish forces swept along the coast. The Swedish navy with support from the German Hochseeflotte landed forces on the southern Finnish coast and seized Turku which had once been Finland’s capital. There they proclaimed the kingdom of Finland on March 3rd which was to be a newly independent nation in personal union with Sweden.

Russia realized that with communists in Moscow, Finnish independence nearly a fact and German forces at the gates of Petrograd, they had no choice but to negotiate surrender terms. On March 8th 1917 Russia requested an armistice from Germany despite American and Entente attempts to stop them. Russia was rapidly descending into chaos though and a state of civil war was already beginning. After a few weeks of negotiating in which the Germans had the upper hand in basically everything, the following was determined in the Treaty of Bialystok, signed on April 2nd, 1917. In it, Russia recognized Polish, Lithuanian and Finnish independence and the Germans also proclaimed the Baltic Duchy and the duchy of Courland. The Ottomans reclaimed the border as it had existed prior to the Russo-Turkish War and the Russians were in no position to deny it to them. Upon joint Polish-German insistence, the Polish border was moved to the east, coming close to Minsk and including significant parts of western Belarus and the northwest of the Ukraine, except for those areas which were still in Austro-Hungarian hands and thus clashed with Polish interests in the area. Kings were appointed for Poland and Lithuania while the kingdom of Finland was forced to enter a similar union with Sweden as Norway had seen prior to its full independence in 1905. While this prevented Finnish full independence it did increase the rights Finland had and within the new kingdom of Sweden-Finland they would have a much bigger say than in the old Russian empire so they grudgingly accepted. They hadn’t got much chances to protest anyway since Swedish forces controlled much of Finland and the Swedish Navy dominated the Gulf of Bothnia and the Finnish Gulf as well. In the meanwhile, Romania also signed a peace with Germany and Austria which basically involved the country becoming an Austrian vassal and some fortresses being ceded but beyond that it was status quo ante bellum and the Germans even forced Russia to cede Bessarabia to Romania to appease Bucharest and because they didn’t like seeing it in Russian hands anyway.

With Russia beaten, Germany turned her attention back to the west where a number of interesting developments had occurred. American reinforcements had increased in number on the western front and by now they had grown big enough to actually accomplish something. The Entente had chosen an attack in a peripheral theatre which might be enough to knock one Central Power out of the war. That Central Power was Italy and the targeted area would be Sicily where British, French and American forces struck in mid-March of 1917. The Italian army on the island had been expecting an invasion for quite some time now after the fall of Libya and resisted heavily. Nevertheless Entente forces had a numerical superiority of 5:3 and could beat their opponents. They established beachheads on the south of the island and advanced inwards from there. In mid-April a separate landing took the island of Pantelleria which allowed the Entente to attack in western Sicily as well. Together Entente forces marched north and it would be the French who would, after fierce battles, be the ones to take Palermo on May 23rd.

In the meantime Entente forces began to get into an offensive mode in other areas as well. In the west they attacked on April 17th against German lines which were reorganizing because reinforcements from the east were pouring in. London and Paris had kept the attack as secret as they could so it was a surprise for the German army which could restore itself relatively quick though because of the slow British and French advance through the barbed wire and the various other German means of defense. In the end the attack was not very successful but it did succeed in capturing some minor chunks of land. In response, the Germans decided to try an offensive of their own in early May which was targeted against Amiens and deployed new armies from the east. They came close to a breakthrough but eventually a joint Anglo-American counterattack stopped them just a few miles from the city. The British and Americans attacked from the north and the south and nearly managed to cut off the bulge in the German frontline. The Germans were spared such an event which would have caused the surrounding of several German divisions but they did have to retreat and the initiative was now definitely in the hands of France, Britain and the United States who struck north from Belgium and the bordering parts of northern France in early June. After some initial resistance, they finally achieved the breakthrough the public had been waiting for since the Race to the Sea. The Germans knew they could not hold and started an orderly retreat east and established a new line running from Oostende to Lille. Nevertheless free Belgian territory had been more than doubled and the success of the offensive called for more.

A joint attack in the west and in the centre would eventually break German lines decisively in late July. French forces marched through the gap and advanced in the direction of Mons, in Belgian Hainaut. To prevent a complete military disaster, the Germans retreated to the Scheldt and from there further east as Entente forces were hot on their tail. By now the Entente had removed all resistance in Sicily after a campaign of over three months and were contemplating an attack on the Italian mainland. The blockade had intensified and the Italian populace started calling for peace. They weren’t the only ones though. In the Balkans theatre, Greece had declared war and the Central Power lines were decisively broken in mid-July. Entente forces poured into southern Serbia and western Bulgaria while in the Middle East Baghdad was taken and Jerusalem was put under siege despite fierce Ottoman attempts to prevent it. By early August, 1917, the Central Powers were disintegrating and it was just a matter of who would fall first. It would turn out to be Bulgaria which requested an armistice on August 11th as Entente forces were already in Skopje and had penetrated deep into the country. In a response, Romania violated the peace treaty they had made earlier and once again declared war on Vienna, Berlin and Sofia, returning to the Entente and adding another painful front to the Austrian war effort which was collapsing already. A few days after the Bulgarian armistice forces from Serbia crossed the border into Bosnia-Herzegovina where they were given a mixed welcome by the local population which was quite divided in ethnicity and could therefore not agree whether to view the Serbians and by extension the whole Entente as occupiers or liberators. In the end it would not matter to the government that would soon return to Belgrade as they were not about to let their dream of establishing a united South-Slav country get disrupted by such insignificant matters.

When the news of Romanian forces entering Transylvania and Serb armies advancing in Bosnia reached the Hungarian government in Belgrade, it was the last straw they could take in a war that had been too costly already. Hungary declared itself independent from Austria-Hungary on August 20th and was followed by Czech nationalists in Prague three days later who proclaimed the ‘Czechoslovak Republic’, a state consisting of the Czech and Slovak nationalities within the Austro-Hungarian empire which brought them into conflict with both the Cisleithanian and the Transleithanian half of the empire. Those were issues that were yet to come however as the Austrian government saw itself forced to accept a surrender on September 1st, 1917, only a day after Italy had done the same thing as they too suffered internal strife. The Italians had to contend with political ideologies rather than nationalities but nevertheless they were a huge problem for the kingdom with several movements proclaiming the republic and some obscure movements demanding independence or self-rule of their respective province. The Ottomans had already requested an armistice by that time because Entente forces were descending on Constantinople and it was no use to continue the fight with all her allies falling and the empire collapsing internally as well with many nationalities demanding autonomy or even independence. Sweden followed as they saw no use in continuing the war on their own, a prospect which looked like it was coming near, and hoped for a fair peace since Entente forces weren’t threatening Swedish soil yet.

Germany now stood alone with all her allies falling and Brussels also having to capitulate to the Entente on September 3rd. The German front in Belgium was collapsing and even Emperor Wilhelm II decided that the war was lost. On September 6th he requested an armistice from the Entente and abdicated two days later in favor of his son who was crowned Wilhelm III of the German Empire because Wilhelm II was intolerable in the new circumstances. He thus avoided the fate of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy which had to renounce her position all together and Emperor Karl fled to Switzerland. The First Great War was officially over, but the dream of universal peace was far from accomplished yet. In fact, some conflicts were only just beginning and the peace treaty would only harbor the seeds for more war.

Map at the end of the war.

EDIT: I just saw the Middle-East isn't entirely accurate. Sorry for that. The next map will (hopefully) be better.

You are aware that the Swedish fleet was NOT at Fårösund at the time?

It was conducting exercises in the southern part of the Stockholm Archipelago at the time. The destroyer squadron von Essen intended to send north to mine the main channels of the Archipelago might have run into the main force of Kustflottan, but at Fårösund von Essen would have found two or three patrol boats (old 3rd class torpedo boats) and maybe a minesweeper.

Aside from the fact that the Swedish navy wasn't at Fårösund at the time of the attack, I enjoyed reading what you wrote. BTW, does the Åland islands belong to Sweden or the Kingdom of Finland in this TL? I would assume Sweden since the islands didn't really want to be part of Finland anyways and the population there is pretty much entirely Swedish-speaking.

EDIT:
Another question: Looking at the post-war map, does Sweden get Ösel and Dagö or are those islands part of the Baltic Duchy?

So, a rather counterintuitive WWI where the CP manage to reap defeats from the jaws of victory, despite the huge advantage of CP Sweden and Italy, through an exceeding dose of sheer stupidity (failure to coordinate on the Western and Balkan fronts, provoking the US into an early entry despite German-Americans, Italian-Americans, and Swedish-Americans all lobbying for the CPs). Well, I suppose it is possible, stupidity is something that all WWI actrs deployed in abundant amounts, although I'm going to beat with the metaphorical big stick any bloody Entente or Pink Blot fanboy that dares say this is the most likely outcome.

But please, please, do avoid the ASBish clichè that Italian national unity was so fragile that it would be threatened because of military defeat. Please strike this "with several movements proclaiming the republic and some obscure movements demanding independence or self-rule of their respective province" from the TL, since it is way ASBish. There were no significant separatist movements in Italy back then, that was the age of nationalism, Italian national self-consciousness was solid, and national minorities were insignificant before post-WWI annexations. Italy falling apart because of defeat in WWI is about as plausible as France or Germany doing the same. Instead of that part, if you wish, insert some far-left insurrection attempts, they were much more plausible.

A nitpick: I rather doubt that post-defeat Romania had the means to re-enter the war and make a meaningful attack on the CP. The peace treaty was rather harsh, and they did nothing of the sort IOTL.

An honest question out of curiosity: did TTL Germans allow Lenin to return to Russia all the same, or is the Russian Revolution being led by someone else, such as Trotzki, instead ? If the Germans think they are winning, and the RR starts because of greater CP victories, they may never bother, and the Revolution gets led by Trotzki instead. This would mean a rather different Soviet Union (just as totalitarian, but more expansionist).

Anyway, in all likelihood, this WWI victory is going to be quite the Pyrrhic victory and swan song for the Entente. The USA are going to return to isolationism as quickly and resolutely as OTL, if not more, since to fight the origin countries of their two biggest immigrant nationalities for the sake of Anglo-French imperialism is going to give them quite the bitter aftertaste. Britain and France are going to have very little friends in Europe apart from the no-good Little Entente, and with Germany-Austria, Italy, Russia, Sweden, and Hungary hostile to the Versailles order from day one, it is going to fall apart even more quickly and decisively than OTL.

Italy is almost assured to get rid of the monarchy...this defeat is too much, the problem is now what become of her? Authoritarian democracy, Fascist or Socialists (the latter, as many european socialist movement, were inspired by the russian revolution, so much depend if there still happen)? Only the future (and the author) will know

von Adler said:

You are aware that the Swedish fleet was NOT at Fårösund at the time?

It was conducting exercises in the southern part of the Stockholm Archipelago at the time. The destroyer squadron von Essen intended to send north to mine the main channels of the Archipelago might have run into the main force of Kustflottan, but at Fårösund von Essen would have found two or three patrol boats (old 3rd class torpedo boats) and maybe a minesweeper.

Click to expand...

Well, I didn't mention the exact location of the fleet in the text, so one could assume that ITTL, the actual attack went differently from the OTL plans, or that a more accurate angle of attack being planned is the main POD, with butterflies or an extra POD leading to the plan not being found out. Choose for yourself, I'd say.

BTW, does the Åland islands belong to Sweden or the Kingdom of Finland in this TL? I would assume Sweden since the islands didn't really want to be part of Finland anyways and the population there is pretty much entirely Swedish-speaking.

Click to expand...

They go to Sweden. Finland could get them, but the Swedes do want some direct gain out of the war and the Åland islands are as good as anything. It doesn't really make too much of a difference anyway.

EvilSpaceAlien said:

Another question: Looking at the post-war map, does Sweden get Ösel and Dagö or are those islands part of the Baltic Duchy?

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They go to the Baltic Duchy. The Germans wanted them in their sphere of influence and they probably appeased the Swedes by adding a few economic concessions here and there. And in the end, it doesn't matter anyway, since the CP's lost and as a result, the treaty of Bialystok is going to last as long as the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk did IOTL.

Eurofed said:

So, a rather counterintuitive WWI where the CP manage to reap defeats from the jaws of victory, despite the huge advantage of CP Sweden and Italy, through an exceeding dose of sheer stupidity (failure to coordinate on the Western and Balkan fronts, provoking the US into an early entry despite German-Americans, Italian-Americans, and Swedish-Americans all lobbying for the CPs).

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Well, it was you who gave me the idea in your AHC: CP Italy and Sweden, Entente wins idea. And trust me, seeing the Central Powers go down like this hurts me as much as it hurts you. But they will get their revenge, and there will be some minor Ameriwank in the next chapter, and I figured you'd appreciate that.

Well, I suppose it is possible, stupidity is something that all WWI actrs deployed in abundant amounts, although I'm going to beat with the metaphorical big stick any bloody Entente or Pink Blot fanboy that dares say this is the most likely outcome.

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Yes, as it was, I had to work hard to make this scenario work in any sort of plausible manner.

But please, please, do avoid the ASBish clichè that Italian national unity was so fragile that it would be threatened because of military defeat. Please strike this "with several movements proclaiming the republic and some obscure movements demanding independence or self-rule of their respective province" from the TL, since it is way ASBish.

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The key word here is obscure. These movements were barely big enough to be mentioned, and they won't be a thread to Italian unity. And there are always some people who will go to the streets and claim mad things when they get the opportunity, but they will hardly get any following.

There were no significant separatist movements in Italy back then, that was the age of nationalism, Italian national self-consciousness was solid, and national minorities were insignificant before post-WWI annexations.

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Yeah, I would have a hard time seeing Italy break up because of this too. But Entente forces are on Sicily and Sardinia, and they might have a different opinion...

Italy falling apart because of defeat in WWI is about as plausible as France or Germany doing the same.

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Well, actually, Germany did have a Bavarian independence movement in the years after WWI, with the Bavarian socialist republic and all that, but also some monarchist movements. I sort of see Sicily as being the same thing. While they couldn't establish independence on their own, and such an idea would probably have even less following than in Bavaria, Entente force of arms will enable them to succeed. ITTL, America has no idealist Wilson in charge, and America will be distracted during the negotiations with Germany and Italy, which, coupled with the fact that the victory was far closer than IOTL, will make more French "let's strike them down for good" ideas get popularity. As soon as they hear that one fringe movement proposes Sicilian independence, they could very well go for it, and it's an interesting idea to have them do so.

That said, I have absolutely no intentions to establish a lasting Republic of Sicily. Sicily will be just one of those post-WWI states that were established and disestablished shortly thereafter. As soon as the peace is signed, people will start calling for reunification, and not even the Entente is going to deny them that. Within three years after the peace, a military coup could occur in favor of Italy, and the Entente won't have any choice. Sicily won't last any longer than the Armenia established at Sevres did. There were so many states proclaimed in the chaos after WWI and they all fell down within a few years, and ITTL, Sicily will simply be one more member of that list. Once the chaos ends, sanity will prevail and Sicily will return to Italy.

Instead of that part, if you wish, insert some far-left insurrection attempts, they were much more plausible.

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Those are pretty much covered by the republican insurrections, but indeed, there will be several.

A nitpick: I rather doubt that post-defeat Romania had the means to re-enter the war and make a meaningful attack on the CP. The peace treaty was rather harsh, and they did nothing of the sort IOTL.

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They did enter IOTL (see Wikipedia) at the day before the Germans surrendered. And after all, at this point, Austria-Hungary is collapsing. Perhaps I should slightly limit their successes, though.

An honest question out of curiosity: did TTL Germans allow Lenin to return to Russia all the same, or is the Russian Revolution being led by someone else, such as Trotzki, instead ?

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Lenin stays in Switzerland.

If the Germans think they are winning, and the RR starts because of greater CP victories, they may never bother, and the Revolution gets led by Trotzki instead. This would mean a rather different Soviet Union (just as totalitarian, but more expansionist).

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Of course, there is still the chance that the revolution might actually fail. After all, ITTL, the Whites signed peace with the Germans, not the Bolsheviks, and they keep their hold on Petrograd. With the revolution lacking Lenin and thus a clear leader (although Trotsky will have some ideas about that), it isn't as strong, even if it doesn't mean that the Russian Republic will win an easy victory.

Anyway, in all likelihood, this WWI victory is going to be quite the Pyrrhic victory and swan song for the Entente. The USA are going to return to isolationism as quickly and resolutely as OTL, if not more, since to fight the origin countries of their two biggest immigrant nationalities for the sake of Anglo-French imperialism is going to give them quite the bitter aftertaste.

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Certainly. The United States might wonder sometimes whether it hadn't been better if they had stayed out of the war all together.

Britain and France are going to have very little friends in Europe apart from the no-good Little Entente, and with Germany-Austria, Italy, Russia, Sweden, and Hungary hostile to the Versailles order from day one, it is going to fall apart even more quickly and decisively than OTL.

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That is granted. The Entente will regret this peace treaty much more than OTL by the time we arrive in the late 1930s and early 1940s. But by then, it will be too late...

lukedalton said:

Italy is almost assured to get rid of the monarchy...this defeat is too much, the problem is now what become of her?

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No, that's a little too much. There will be proposals to abolish the monarchy for sure, but they won't be enacted in the end, and as the last paragraph indicates, the Hohenzollerns are preserved in Germany as well. But yes, Italy has some turbulent times in front of her. Of course, there might be some "friends" from Berlin willing to lend a hand...

EmmettMcFly55 said:

Well, it was you who gave me the idea in your AHC: CP Italy and Sweden, Entente wins idea.

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Well, I never said it couldn't happen. It's just that it's the least likely outcome (there is a reason that thread was proposed as an AHC and not WI, after all). As a matter of fact, to make it work, you had to pile up a considerable amount of stupidity on the CP. Again, it could happen, stupidity was something all WWI actors deployed in substantial numbers, so it is perfectly believable to see a TL where some of them get an excess amount.

And trust me, seeing the Central Powers go down like this hurts me as much as it hurts you. But they will get their revenge, and there will be some minor Ameriwank in the next chapter, and I figured you'd appreciate that.

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I stand in eager wait.

Yes, as it was, I had to work hard to make this scenario work in any sort of plausible manner.

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What I said, and kudos to your effort. I trust this kind of thing being better done by one with your sensibilities rather than some unsufferable Ententewank fanboy who thinks the Pink Blot had some God-given guarantee of invincibility.

The key word here is obscure. These movements were barely big enough to be mentioned, and they won't be a thread to Italian unity. And there are always some people who will go to the streets and claim mad things when they get the opportunity, but they will hardly get any following.

Well, actually, Germany did have a Bavarian independence movement in the years after WWI, with the Bavarian socialist republic and all that, but also some monarchist movements.

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True, Bavaria had a brief flare-up of separatism after WWI and Sicily one after WWII. But in both cases, they were swiftly and spontaneously reabsorbed and extinguished by mainstream political consciousness as political chaos subsided and national self-consciousness reasserted itself.

Yeah, I would have a hard time seeing Italy break up because of this too. But Entente forces are on Sicily and Sardinia, and they might have a different opinion...

While they couldn't establish independence on their own, and such an idea would probably have even less following than in Bavaria, Entente force of arms will enable them to succeed.

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Oh, this would be a wholly different thing. Forced separation imposed by Entente bayonets of Sicily or Sardinia would be plausible, it would be an analogue of the half-hearted attempt to establish a separate Rhineland state that France did IOTL. However, it is guaranteed that this shall be overwhelmingly unpopular with the locals, and those republics shall be artificial creations ruled by despised Quislings that only survive as long as there are Entente occupation troops in place.

However, if France (because something like this can only happen if France goes power-mad and Britain, not to mention the USA, give it a free rein at the peace table) is acting this dickish towards Italy, they are absolutely going to use the same yardstick against Germany. Something like a separate Rhineland or Bavaria (perhaps better the latter since it does not screw up the industrial potential of Germany too much for the necessary rematch), and/or Poland grabbing greater chunks of German land (such as annexing Danzig and/or southern East Prussia; again, better this than a greater chunk of Upper Silesia for the reasons above).

ITTL, America has no idealist Wilson in charge, and America will be distracted during the negotiations with Germany and Italy, which, coupled with the fact that the victory was far closer than IOTL, will make more French "let's strike them down for good" ideas get popularity.

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Well, this is indeed feasible IF France goes the deep end with revanchist revenge fantasies, Britain has a blonde moment at the negotiation table because of the close victory and gives it a free rein (normally they would balk at aggrandizing France at the expense of Germany and Italy too much), and the USA is already getting so many second thoughts about this whole war affair that they don't care.

That said, I have absolutely no intentions to establish a lasting Republic of Sicily. Sicily will be just one of those post-WWI states that were established and disestablished shortly thereafter. As soon as the peace is signed, people will start calling for reunification, and not even the Entente is going to deny them that. Within three years after the peace, a military coup could occur in favor of Italy, and the Entente won't have any choice. Sicily won't last any longer than the Armenia established at Sevres did. There were so many states proclaimed in the chaos after WWI and they all fell down within a few years, and ITTL, Sicily will simply be one more member of that list. Once the chaos ends, sanity will prevail and Sicily will return to Italy.

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I see, and you might use an analoguous course with Bavaria. But boy, this is going to make the average Italian want to eat French liver for breakfast.

They did enter IOTL (see Wikipedia) at the day before the Germans surrendered. And after all, at this point, Austria-Hungary is collapsing. Perhaps I should slightly limit their successes, though.

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What I meant. They did make a second declaration of war IOTL, but it ended up being symbolic. No issue with them doing something similar, but I was skeptical of them managing actual military successes. If the A-H army is collapsing, the Romanian ones has to be in shambles.

Of course, there is still the chance that the revolution might actually fail. After all, ITTL, the Whites signed peace with the Germans, not the Bolsheviks, and they keep their hold on Petrograd. With the revolution lacking Lenin and thus a clear leader (although Trotsky will have some ideas about that), it isn't as strong, even if it doesn't mean that the Russian Republic will win an easy victory.

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Well, from what I can see, the Entente powers are going to be as exhausted from their war effort as OTL or more (although the war lasted a year less, they had to make greater efforts to defeat a more powerful CP block), so this in all likelihood rules out an Entente intervention to back up the Whites.

Although Trotzki may alienate the other members of the Soviet ruling circle in the long term because of his poor interpersonal skills (if he's the main leader of the Revolution, the resulting charisma may counteract this to a degree), he was a fairly good military leader during the RCW, so with him in charge, the Reds may probably be as effective ITTL as they were IOTL. I'm do not honestly know how much the Whites in possession of Petrograd may change the course of RCW, however.

That is granted. The Entente will regret this peace treaty much more than OTL by the time we arrive in the late 1930s and early 1940s. But by then, it will be too late...

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So true, so true...

No, that's a little too much. There will be proposals to abolish the monarchy for sure, but they won't be enacted in the end, and as the last paragraph indicates, the Hohenzollerns are preserved in Germany as well. But yes, Italy has some turbulent times in front of her. Of course, there might be some "friends" from Berlin willing to lend a hand...

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Pals must stick together in difficult times, don't they ? I do expect that ITTL there shall be a great deal of German-Italian above-the-board economic and covert rearmament cooperation since the 1920s, just like the OTL German-Soviet one. Whether it shall still be extended to the Russians ITTL, it depends on whether Russia shall still turn out to be yet another pariah of the Entente order. Ditto for Sweden and Turkey.

EmmettMcFly55 said:

They go to Sweden. Finland could get them, but the Swedes do want some direct gain out of the war and the Åland islands are as good as anything. It doesn't really make too much of a difference anyway.

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It would to the Finns. What with imposíng a personal union on Finland and "stealing" away the Ålands, you are setting up future trouble in Finland between Sweden and the Swedophiles on one hand and an embittered, increasingly anti-Swedish and independence-minded nationalist movement on the other.

CP losing with Sweden and Italy on her side? Seems almost impossible.

Timmy811 said:

CP losing with Sweden and Italy on her side? Seems almost impossible.

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It is the least likely outcome. That's why, in order to justify it, the author had to go out of his way to give the expanded CP a big idiot ball.

Well, I never said it couldn't happen. It's just that it's the least likely outcome (there is a reason that thread was proposed as an AHC and not WI, after all). As a matter of fact, to make it work, you had to pile up a considerable amount of stupidity on the CP. Again, it could happen, stupidity was something all WWI actors deployed in substantial numbers, so it is perfectly believable to see a TL where some of them get an excess amount.

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The real sad think is that with all the stupidity demonstrated by all the politician and the military high command, the losing of the expanded CP is not even ASB just higly unlikely...go figure

I stand in eager wait.

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Revenge is sweet

What I said, and kudos to your effort. I trust this kind of thing being better done by one with your sensibilities rather than some unsufferable Ententewank fanboy who thinks the Pink Blot had some God-given guarantee of invincibility.

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What?, they haven't? I must have skip the memo

True, Bavaria had a brief flare-up of separatism after WWI and Sicily one after WWII. But in both cases, they were swiftly and spontaneously reabsorbed and extinguished by mainstream political consciousness as political chaos subsided and national self-consciousness reasserted itself.



Oh, this would be a wholly different thing. Forced separation imposed by Entente bayonets of Sicily or Sardinia would be plausible, it would be an analogue of the half-hearted attempt to establish a separate Rhineland state that France did IOTL. However, it is guaranteed that this shall be overwhelmingly unpopular with the locals, and those republics shall be artificial creations ruled by despised Quislings that only survive as long as there are Entente occupation troops in place.

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Yes the moment the Entente troops are out, the local government will not last a week, but Sardinia (who still today mantain a streak of diversity linguistically and culturally from the penisula, nothing to worry in relation to separation from Italy it's just that probably before getting reunited they will try to get some autonomy or some concession)

However, if France (because something like this can only happen if France goes power-mad and Britain, not to mention the USA, give it a free rein at the peace table) is acting this dickish towards Italy, they are absolutely going to use the same yardstick against Germany. Something like a separate Rhineland or Bavaria (perhaps better the latter since it does not screw up the industrial potential of Germany too much for the necessary rematch), and/or Poland grabbing greater chunks of German land (such as annexing Danzig and/or southern East Prussia; again, better this than a greater chunk of Upper Silesia for the reasons above).

Well, this is indeed feasible IF France goes the deep end with revanchist revenge fantasies, Britain has a blonde moment at the negotiation table because of the close victory and gives it a free rein (normally they would balk at aggrandizing France at the expense of Germany and Italy too much), and the USA is already getting so many second thoughts about this whole war affair that they don't care.

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I've a bad feeling about this

I see, and you might use an analoguous course with Bavaria. But boy, this is going to make the average Italian want to eat French liver for breakfast.

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No the reaction will not be so calm and restrained

Well, from what I can see, the Entente powers are going to be as exhausted from their war effort as OTL or more (although the war lasted a year less, they had to make greater efforts to defeat a more powerful CP block), so this in all likelihood rules out an Entente intervention to back up the Whites.

Although Trotzki may alienate the other members of the Soviet ruling circle in the long term because of his poor interpersonal skills (if he's the main leader of the Revolution, the resulting charisma may counteract this to a degree), he was a fairly good military leader during the RCW, so with him in charge, the Reds may probably be as effective ITTL as they were IOTL. I'm do not honestly know how much the Whites in possession of Petrograd may change the course of RCW, however.

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Well a monarchist-communist alliance akwand and interesting

So true, so true...

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If France capitulated, Germany and Italy will probably done the same thing of Hitler, make France sign the surrender treaty in the same place where Germany signed her ( Yeah it's petty...the problem is? )

Pals must stick together in difficult times, don't they ? I do expect that ITTL there shall be a great deal of German-Italian above-the-board economic and covert rearmament cooperation since the 1920s, just like the OTL German-Soviet one. Whether it shall still be extended to the Russians ITTL, it depends on whether Russia shall still turn out to be yet another pariah of the Entente order. Ditto for Sweden and Turkey

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Well if there is a thing the italian are very good it's con people (BTW i'm italian just a little joke)

lukedalton said:

The real sad think is that with all the stupidity demonstrated by all the politician and the military high command, the losing of the expanded CP is not even ASB just higly unlikely...go figure.

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Yep.

Revenge is sweet

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So very true.

What?, they haven't? I must have skip the memo

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The green blob on the other side of the pond stands as an eternal reminder that no, they haven't.

And thank the universe. Limey nationalists are unsufferable enough already for Britain having won the Napoleonic and World Wars.

Yes the moment the Entente troops are out, the local government will not last a week, but Sardinia (who still today mantain a streak of diversity linguistically and culturally from the penisula, nothing to worry in relation to separation from Italy it's just that probably before getting reunited they will try to get some autonomy or some concession).

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Absolutely so. But having to set up something like the "regioni a statuto speciale" (regions with a special autonomy statute) a few decades earlier is no real trouble for Italy.

I've a bad feeling about this

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Worry not too much. Post-WWI France absolutely did not have the resources to play continental hegemon (that window had closed at Waterloo), even more so without the total support of Britain (which was not coming, they had not fought a world war to replace a German hegemony with a French one), no matter how many Eastern European satellites with off-putting nationalists in charge it tried to summon in existence.

If they try to act really dickish on Germany and Italy, they are just going to screw themselves into exhaustion all the faster with the economic, political, and military costs, while Britain, no matter how much it may have a stupid moment at the peace table, is going to recover from it and shift to appeasement mode, all the faster the more it perceives the balance of power skewed in the favor of France.

No the reaction will not be so calm and restrained

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Well, we are civilized people, aren't we ?

If France capitulated, Germany and Italy will probably done the same thing of Hitler, make France sign the surrender treaty in the same place where Germany signed her ( Yeah it's petty...the problem is? )

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Don't forget the lavish victory parade down the Champs-Elysees.

Suscribed. I was already quite interested in the original thread where the idea was discussed, and seeing this turned into an actual TL makes me glad.

It'll be very interesting to see what the seething Germans and Italians (and, perhaps, Swedes? It would be beyond awesome if there was a Stockholm-Berlin-Rome Axis, unlikely as it may be...) will cook up in their quest for revenge...

- Kelenas

If von Essen goes for the Swedish navy while it is conducting exercises in the archipelago, he is in for a world of hurt - the Swedes will be warned and retreat behind the mine lines.

Absolutely so. But having to set up something like the "regioni a statuto speciale" (regions with a special autonomy statute) a few decades earlier is no real trouble for Italy.

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Absolutely true

Worry not too much. Post-WWI France absolutely did not have the resources to play continental hegemon (that window had closed at Waterloo), even more so without the total support of Britain (which was not coming, they had not fought a world war to replace a German hegemony with a French one), no matter how many Eastern European satellites with off-putting nationalists in charge it tried to summon in existence.

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Sorry i forgot to put the heavy french accent on the last post

If they try to act really dickish on Germany and Italy, they are just going to screw themselves into exhaustion all the faster with the economic, political, and military costs, while Britain, no matter how much it may have a stupid moment at the peace table, is going to recover from it and shift to appeasement mode, all the faster the more it perceives the balance of power skewed in the favor of France.

Well, we are civilized people, aren't we ?

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Oh sure absolutely

Don't forget the lavish victory parade down the Champs-Elysees.

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My bad, how can i forget it, honestly if the former CP powers win the second round, Franche risk to be subjected to a Morgentau plan like treaty.
Just as a note, even if the monarchy is not toppled, Vittorio Emanuele will probably abdicate as the disastrous war the los of the colony and the humiliating treaty, is son Umberto is too young to become king so a regent will be necessary or his mother or mabye him http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luigi_Amedeo_di_Savoia-Aosta even if not very high in the rank of succession is still very famous and frankly the house of Savoy needs all the good publicity possible.

Is the comparison of Sicily with the Rhineland really fair? Sicily isn't exactly my strong suite, but we're talking about a place that was long one of the comparatively populous, prosperous, and developed bits of Germany. The Rhineland by the end of WW1 was of course intensely urbanised and proletarianised, therefore strongly German.

If I'm not completely misled, Sicily or Sardinia were at the same time overwhelmingly agrarian communities. I imagine the local educated elite might unite with Italy the moment Entente backs were turned, but to the average Sicilian why should it be anything but here-comes-the-new-boss-same-as-the-old-boss, like it was when it was annexed by Italy in the first place?

Eurofed said:

Worry not too much. Post-WWI France absolutely did not have the resources to play continental hegemon (that window had closed at Waterloo), even more so without the total support of Britain (which was not coming, they had not fought a world war to replace a German hegemony with a French one), no matter how many Eastern European satellites with off-putting nationalists in charge it tried to summon in existence.

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Ah, the "Slavs wouldn't cause trouble if not for the naughty French" case?

Where the French tried to set up a state and there wasn't overwhelming popular support - namely, Ukraine, where the Directorate was hardly hated - it got squished. The French helped our countries that already existed and had benefitted from the war (Yugoslavia, Romania) or which proved quite capable os asserting their own independence. Nobody was "summoned into existence" anything.

If I'm not completely misled, Sicily or Sardinia were at the same time overwhelmingly agrarian communities. I imagine the local educated elite might unite with Italy the moment Entente backs were turned, but to the average Sicilian why should it be anything but here-comes-the-new-boss-same-as-the-old-boss, like it was when it was annexed by Italy in the first place?

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Yes there were very agrarian communities, but the motive to want go back to Italy is that at least when unified Rome was at least with some degree a counterpoint to the local elite, leaving by itself the local barons will put the paesant in a worse position, expecially if there are little one used by the Entente in quisling fashion (who btw will probably hate each other if i remembering my history well, local inland (expecially between Palermo and Catania )diversity and animosity were more pronunced and important that the one related to the rest of Italy, and in this time there is still a lot of nationalism so a reunification with the mainland will be seen as a stabilizating factor, a lot depend of the occupation and how the Anglo-French forces as treated the population (and frankly the record in Italy for the French is not good), if they were too repressive the government they put in place will be seen as a their emanation and hated too.