I apologize if the wording of the thread is somewhat odd. Now, the general consensus here is that the Axis powers, here meaning Nazi Germany, Italy and Imperial Japan could not have survived very long even under the best possible circumstances from their perspective. The consensus seems to suggest that not only is victory in the second world war all but impossible from a military standpoint, but that these nations were inherently unstable and prone to internal collapse in the near term. Assuming that that conclusion is accurate, which of those nations had the potential to last the longest? You can determine what surviving longer means, anywhere from decades to a few more years.
Which of the Axis Powers could have lasted the longest?
- Thread starter Glass Onion
- Start date
If the Japanese never attacked the USA, then Imperial Japan would survive the longest. Even in real life, they outlasted the other Axis powers.
Otherwise, Nazi Germany.
Fascist Italy was doomed to fail; maybe if they got rid of Mussolini they could outlast WW2. I mean, General Franco ran a fascist state and he just ret-conned himself as a "conservative anti-communist" once the war ended.
Otherwise, Nazi Germany.
Fascist Italy was doomed to fail; maybe if they got rid of Mussolini they could outlast WW2. I mean, General Franco ran a fascist state and he just ret-conned himself as a "conservative anti-communist" once the war ended.
Are you suggesting that Fascist Italy could not possibly have succeeded in the war, or that Mussolini's government was going to collapse even without a war? Or perhaps a mixture of the two? One of the WWII cliches here is that Mussolini avoids entering into the Second World War. Now I'm not sure how tenable such a course of action would be, and I apologize for repeating what is probably an annoying cliche in some quarters here, but presuming that somehow, Mussolini doesn't enter the war, would he have fallen from power in the same time period anyway?
John Farson
Banned
On the other hand, Japan began her war against the US and the UK and others on 7 December 1941 and surrendered on 15 August 1945, whereas the Germans already began their war against the western allies on 1 September 1939 and didn't surrender until 9 May 1945, so technically the Germans actually lasted longer than the Japanese. The Japs just started later (they were already in China), and after Midway it pretty much was defeat after defeat for them (bar a few momentary successes like Savo Island and Tassafaronga).
I can't see Mussolini not entering the war. And since Italy's army was shit, they were doomed to lose against the Brits and Americans.
Maybe if Mussolini got assassinated, and someone like Badoglio replaced him (well, he did in real life, after the Allies invaded). Or if the Italians and Germans got into a quarrel over the South Tyrol area, resulting in Italy having a hissy-fit and never joining the Axis. If Italy went Spain's way, they could have survived WW2.
I mean, you gotta admire Franco even if you don't like his politics. The guy had a sneaky cunning that the megalomaniacs Adolf and Benito so obviously lacked.
wolf_brother
Banned
Fascist Italy is the most likely to go the route of Francoist Spain. Germany had to be defeated once she attacked France, and Japan had to be defeated once she attacked America. You would need major POD to avoid one or the other; keeping Italy out of the war is much easier.
HeavyWeaponsGuy
Banned
I've seen a couple of timelines where Italy doesn't enter, mostly I think the thing that causes people's knee-jerk reactions against the idea of a neutral Italy is the idea of Hitler and Mussolini as being bosom buddies.
Mussolini threatened to send troops to Austria after Hitler killed Dolfuss and started Anschluss. Wouldn't require an excessively significant PoD at the height of tensions to have Mussolini make good on his threat, at which point neutrality would be the BEST outcome for Germany's ambitions afterward, at the time of Anschluss, Italy's military was stronger than the German one, which was still rearming.
The Italians aren't exactly cutting edge leaders of military theory and technology but they aren't the backwater army of wine-swilling pasta eaters they get the stereotype of being either.
OT: Italy was the most sustainable, Nazi Germany was perceived as a massive threat by the Western powers and the Soviet Union and sooner or later the two would have gone to war, the only real chance Germany has of victory is basically a WWII version of the Schlieffen Plan that knocks out France AND Britain and then fights the Soviets to a standstill, which would require so many little things going right for Germany it would seem nearly implausible.
Japan was going to get murdered as soon as someone stepped into the arena with it, Japanese forces were overextended and had some of the poorest equipment of the war. All of the foes in the region they had to worry about were larger than they were and had either the advantage of vastly better industry (USA or Britain) or numbers and the home field advantage (China), Japan tried to take on all of them and lost against all of them, and would still lose against just one of them.
Italy was in the best chance to turn its back on the Axis like Spain and ease itself into a neutral position that opposes communism, being an anti-communist was a position that made you some very big friends after all.
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Just woefully challenged to keep up with the industrial and educational demands of modern war...Italy is simply not ready to play with the big boys.
No need for wine or pasta to play a role, just - for instance - dreadfully small industry.
"By 1938, Italy still possessed only 2.8 of world manufacturing production, produced 2.1 percent of its steel, 1.0 percent of its pig iron, 0.7 of its iron ore, and 0.1 percent of its coal..."
Simply put, Italy as a nation is weak. And poor.
TheGingerninja: Germany, in a better position, lost WWI. To me, that says enough to rule out any real possibility of a Nazi victory so long as the Allies are willing to fight back. Can't speak for anyone else, but that's my theory.
No need for wine or pasta to play a role, just - for instance - dreadfully small industry.
"By 1938, Italy still possessed only 2.8 of world manufacturing production, produced 2.1 percent of its steel, 1.0 percent of its pig iron, 0.7 of its iron ore, and 0.1 percent of its coal..."
Simply put, Italy as a nation is weak. And poor.
TheGingerninja: Germany, in a better position, lost WWI. To me, that says enough to rule out any real possibility of a Nazi victory so long as the Allies are willing to fight back. Can't speak for anyone else, but that's my theory.
HeavyWeaponsGuy
Banned
I wouldn't say people see it as ASB so much as very, very difficult and in many cases requiring leadership more competent than OTL Nazi Germany ever had. Seriously, Hitler's charisma and ruthlessness brought Germany into being as a major military power, but Hitler was a diseased lunatic whose insatiable ambitions for expansion lead him to pick a fight with three major world powers, any one of which would have been quite a challenge to defeat single-handedly but together would almost guarantee a complete defeat on the part of Germany.
Snake Featherston
Banned
Eh, my guess is it would have to be Imperial Japan. They started fighting a large-scale war 2 years before one broke out in Europe and were still fighting both superpowers months after Germany had given up the ghost and were still kicking ass in China into 1944. Given that from OTL, a victorious Imperial Japan would have been much scarier than Nazi Germany because where the Nazis couldn't hack four years of consistent, large-scale warfare Japan hacked four years of it before starting another four.
HeavyWeaponsGuy
Banned
Wouldn't being perceived as an industrial backwater with a nutty leader who was little more than a nuisance but at least one that hated communists be something the Allies liked? Especially towards the end years where discussions were made for what would be done in the postwar world and it was getting clear that the West and the Soviet Union weren't going to be allies forever?
Snake Featherston
Banned
Except that China war was on the scale that Germany couldn't do very much with at its strongest. The early battles of that war were also unmitigated Japanese victories, where Germany's victories in the Axis-Soviet War were not as overwhelming in results as they seemed at the time. Japan also proved able to give the Allies fights a lot longer than they expected or predicted. The fighting in the Philippines was still ongoing at the time of surrender, they completely curbstomped Mao in 1942 and then Jiang in 1944, and they gave the Allies a six-weeks fight at Iwo Jima, not the short and bloodless one expected.
They definitely lost it on the battlefield but it wasn't that they weren't good at waging war.
Hkelukka
Banned
IMHO, from studying history. Nazi victory was far FAR too close for comfort. Most people will probably not realize just how close it was, because it would be so unsettling for people to understand just how close we came to the abyss.
Me personally, I'm such a jolly guy with a sunny outlook on life
that I am willing to face just how close we came.
Some minor POD's that would have resulted in an Axis victory.
Germany settles for a Brest-Livotsk type 2 in 1941-42 winter
or
Mussolini takes the advice of his generals and instead of going for a large crap army, goes for a smaller but still large German style efficient army.
or
Stalin loses his marbles entirely not just temporarily in 41
or
Finland goes all out in continuation war and occupies Leningrad and deploys everything they have.
or
BOB is done with missiles instead of airplanes.
or
The Atlantic War is given SERIOUS effort by the Germans.
or
The Axis powers have serious long term co-oordination and strike Su at the same time in a coordinated strike.
or
Germany decides to eliminate the E-European inferiors after the war is over, not during the war.
or
Italy welcomes more or all of the Jews fleeing Germany, gives them full citizenship and all rights and permits, encourages settling in Libya.
or
Mussolini realizes that politics is one thing and administration is another and looks for the best and the brightest Italian administrators regardless of race or religion to boost Italy. Such as Guido Jung.
or
Germany gives Vichy France incremental control over all of France except alsac-lorraine and signs a peace with France before mid 1941.
or
Germany decides to standardize equipment before Barbarossa
or
Germany realises that occupying SU will take more than 3 months and prepares for it by inviting Finnish winter soldiers to teach German units proper winter warfare techniques, including saunas and korsus.
or
Germany goes into a deep defense during winter, giving up territory in exchange for time.
or
Japan doesn't provoke the US into an all out war until late 42, 41 is spent in a joint attack on SU.
or
Axis minors are treated better and given better training and equipment.
or
Axis command structure is harmonized to avoid the "minor kingdom" style of overlapping military forces that happened historically.
or
... Well you get the gist, i could go on for an hour with these. Most of these alone could make Axis victory very likely. 3-4 together would result in an axis victory with near certainty. But then again, thats just me.
Me personally, I'm such a jolly guy with a sunny outlook on life
that I am willing to face just how close we came.Some minor POD's that would have resulted in an Axis victory.
Germany settles for a Brest-Livotsk type 2 in 1941-42 winter
or
Mussolini takes the advice of his generals and instead of going for a large crap army, goes for a smaller but still large German style efficient army.
or
Stalin loses his marbles entirely not just temporarily in 41
or
Finland goes all out in continuation war and occupies Leningrad and deploys everything they have.
or
BOB is done with missiles instead of airplanes.
or
The Atlantic War is given SERIOUS effort by the Germans.
or
The Axis powers have serious long term co-oordination and strike Su at the same time in a coordinated strike.
or
Germany decides to eliminate the E-European inferiors after the war is over, not during the war.
or
Italy welcomes more or all of the Jews fleeing Germany, gives them full citizenship and all rights and permits, encourages settling in Libya.
or
Mussolini realizes that politics is one thing and administration is another and looks for the best and the brightest Italian administrators regardless of race or religion to boost Italy. Such as Guido Jung.
or
Germany gives Vichy France incremental control over all of France except alsac-lorraine and signs a peace with France before mid 1941.
or
Germany decides to standardize equipment before Barbarossa
or
Germany realises that occupying SU will take more than 3 months and prepares for it by inviting Finnish winter soldiers to teach German units proper winter warfare techniques, including saunas and korsus.
or
Germany goes into a deep defense during winter, giving up territory in exchange for time.
or
Japan doesn't provoke the US into an all out war until late 42, 41 is spent in a joint attack on SU.
or
Axis minors are treated better and given better training and equipment.
or
Axis command structure is harmonized to avoid the "minor kingdom" style of overlapping military forces that happened historically.
or
... Well you get the gist, i could go on for an hour with these. Most of these alone could make Axis victory very likely. 3-4 together would result in an axis victory with near certainty. But then again, thats just me.
Oh aye. I was responding to the comment on how the Italians get underrated - they kind of were that sucky.
But yes, this would mean that - assuming Ben has his head on straight - Fascist Italy is actually in a better position, as you just said.
But Ben playing his cards that well would be a different Mussolini.
Hkeulukka said:
If this comes out incoherently, its because I'm rolling around laughing while typing it: The German army is not a sleek and efficient machine. Not to mention that Italy lacks the resources to have an uber-efficient army - even with Germany as an example of such.
In a word, how?
Equipment from where?
Picking these as the most difficult to overcome sorts of problems however competent people are.
Not to mention that "What if Germany actually has realistic goals?" would require a massive change from OTL. These are not "minor" PODs.
Hkelukka
Banned
Please, no straw-man arguments and demeaning, that would be nice.
Firstly, I never said the Germany army is a "sleek efficient machine".
Second, resources in this case are irrelevant if there is someone better able to produce the goods, what is important is trade.
Thirdly, if you produce enough weapons to poorly arm X2 times people, you can cut the number of people you arm in half, sell the now extra things like food, clothes, rifles, ammo, old cannons and such, not to mention free a great deal of labor reserve and use the extra money to do things like, i dont know, buy better tanks and artillery from a country like, maybe, Germany? Instead of arming X2 amount of guys poorly you can instead arm X1 amount of guys better. Simple.
Also, Italian army was, as you most likely know, organized to appear bigger on paper, don't ask me why, perhaps Musso was compensating for something. This lead to very poor coordination and troop size, this all or most of his generals knew, but he over rules them. The problem in the African theater was much less about how much you can transport, the goods supplied were ample, but that there were far too many people to feed / cloth / get water to for any real push. Cut the amount of guys by 75% and you can free up A LOT of logistical capacity even if you add absolutely no trucks. It is possible if from the start Italy realises that the whole militia thing is not going to work in africa. This requires Mussolini to even slightly listen to his generals, a huge massive POD I know.
Italian army need not be massively more effective to occupy Suez, Levant and Iraq, Guarantee that no allies can land anywhere in the E-Med and Harrass Baku during 41. Though invasion of S-Su is near impossible due to logistics, nothing stops bombing runs to reduce and destroy the facilities there.
Combined with significantly more difficulty with lend-lease through Iran and if we assume Japan would also block the lend-lease through E-Su and Finland cuts the N-Su train lines and SU collapses in 42-43 All this POD would take is a better Italian army (very easy, in fact ridiculously easy) and Japanese co-ordination with the other Axis nations to just stop the shipments to E-Su, nothing more.
By standardizing it. I know its incredible to assume that Hitler would actually go for something like standard modular design instead of the massive cacophony of different calibers, design and sizes. Germany adopts the Soviet style of building roughly 1-2 tanks in mass and upgrading the whole force every few years instead of picemeal every year and Germany puts up a seriously stiff fight. Also once again, very easy to do, its a matter of design philosophy.
From taking a tiny fraction from the German army. The minors folded so easily because they felt, and rightly so, that they were treated very poorly. By giving a small token to them from time to time you can keep them in the fight much more seriously. Equipment and training for even 1 German style armor division would be a serious moral boost to a country like Romania in my opinion. The effect of giving the minors better equipment would be felt in their better alignment to nazism that would outweigh the minor loss in equipment to germany. Keep the axis minors content and you keep them fighting.
Not really, world conquest can be done step by step, not all at once. All it takes is for Germany to adopt a style of X lebensraum for now, build it up, bigger army, then X+Y lebensraum tomorrow. There are not massive changes, but the idea that the Nazi/Axis leaders were all incompetent people is, in my opinion, wrong. There were some massively stupid once in the mix and some bad decisions. But overall, even going for a Brest livotsk type peace is not out of the question. It would leave Germany the largest its ever been with absolute dominance over mainland Europe. And SU offered it in 41-42. What I am saying is that instead of hitler going all http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoMgnJDXd3k hollywood style. He goes "this good, we sit back and let ze allies fall to decadence and then we go at it again". Thats all it takes, Hitler going "We'll settle for this for the next 2-4 decades!" and the axis effectively win the war.
IMHO, from studying history. Nazi victory was far FAR too close for comfort. Most people will probably not realize just how close it was, because it would be so unsettling for people to understand just how close we came to the abyss.
Me personally, I'm such a jolly guy with a sunny outlook on life
Some minor POD's that would have resulted in an Axis victory.
Germany settles for a Brest-Livotsk type 2 in 1941-42 winter
Impossible without a military coup that would totally redefine Nazi Germany. Such a coup in and of itself is in fact extremely unlikely without the Germans doing considerably worse with Barbarossa.
or
Mussolini takes the advice of his generals and instead of going for a large crap army, goes for a smaller but still large German style efficient army.
Contrary to popular belief, the Italians weren't prone to bungling everything they laid their hands on-that was largely British propaganda stemming from a single incident. As said, the Heer wasn't efficient at all (another myth; 500 truck models) and anyway the Italians didn't lose in North Africa because of poor troop quality. They lost because of logistics.
or
Stalin loses his marbles entirely not just temporarily in 41
...Thus opening the door for a suitable personage (Molotov, Beria, etc) to take the reins temporarily and use the crsis to bat down opposition.
or
Finland goes all out in continuation war and occupies Leningrad and deploys everything they have.
This is hardly a "minor" PoD. Even assuming that losing Leningrad would cause the Soviets to magically sue for peace, the Finns had very specific reasons for not attacking Leningrad-they had got what they wanted. They were shaky, unofficial allies with the Germans OTL, and Mannerheim (along with Franco among the most sensible dictators of the period) had no desire to waste thousands of lives on a prize that would go to the Germans anyway.
or
BOB is done with missiles instead of airplanes.
...I'm not even gonna address this one.
or
The Atlantic War is given SERIOUS effort by the Germans.
Maybe you've read some source I haven't, but I was under the impression that Germany was constantly researching new U-Boat designs and was building new ones, and that the commanding officers at a beaurocratic and command level were competent and motivated. Anyway, once the US joins in, the Uboatwaffe is doomed.
or
The Axis powers have serious long term co-oordination and strike Su at the same time in a coordinated strike.
Errrr...they did strike at the same time in OTL.
or
Germany decides to eliminate the E-European inferiors after the war is over, not during the war.
Again, requires moderation of the Nazis impossible with the OTL setup. Anyway, that wouldn't have changed the war particularily much; the Germans would still treat the locals like crap, and the support the Nazis had early in Barbarossa has been blown vastly out of proportion.
or
Italy welcomes more or all of the Jews fleeing Germany, gives them full citizenship and all rights and permits, encourages settling in Libya.
...Which means a non-Axis Libya.
or
Mussolini realizes that politics is one thing and administration is another and looks for the best and the brightest Italian administrators regardless of race or religion to boost Italy. Such as Guido Jung.
Again, requires non-Axis Italy.
or
Germany gives Vichy France incremental control over all of France except alsac-lorraine and signs a peace with France before mid 1941.
...I don't quite follow. Vichy would be a German puppet in any event; and they were at peace with Germany in 1940 OTL. If you mena the Fre French, the entire raison d'entre of the state was to fight the Germans; a peace with them for no reason when they aren't even threatened would be idiotic.
or
Germany decides to standardize equipment before Barbarossa
Thus throwing the whole Whermacht into disarray and delaying Barbarossa until the Soviets are able to take the invasion and throw it back to Moscow?
or
Germany realises that occupying SU will take more than 3 months and prepares for it by inviting Finnish winter soldiers to teach German units proper winter warfare techniques, including saunas and korsus.
The whole general winter thing is again overstated-while cold had something to do with it, the real reason the Germans were thrown back from Moscow OTL were logistics and overstretch.
or
Germany goes into a deep defense during winter, giving up territory in exchange for time.
Again, requires an overhtrow of the Nazi regime.
or
Japan doesn't provoke the US into an all out war until late 42, 41 is spent in a joint attack on SU.
1) Japan was nearly out of oil in December 1941. By late '42 they wouldn't have been able to fight any war at all.
2) The Soviet Far Eastern sector was fully supplied and armed OTL, and any attack would be reported by the large spy ring in Tokyo. The Japanese would be running into a force larger and more effective then their own, which had already beaten them, and which would offer no real gain besides Vladivostock.
or
Axis minors are treated better and given better training and equipment.
By the magically efficient Wermacht?
or
Axis command structure is harmonized to avoid the "minor kingdom" style of overlapping military forces that happened historically.
Again, kinda intrinsic to the whole "Nazi" thing.
or
... Well you get the gist, i could go on for an hour with these. Most of these alone could make Axis victory very likely. 3-4 together would result in an axis victory with near certainty. But then again, thats just me.
Yes, these things together would make for a very excellent HOI2 campaign.