Poland against the axis, earlier.

Say someone else than Edward Rydz-Śmigły comes to power after Piłsudski, someone who thinks the biggest danger to the Polish nation is Germany and somewhat skeptic of western politics in general, even if he tries to keep good relations with London and Paris.


1. Poland opposes the annexation of Austria.

2. Poland proposes an alliance with Czechoslovakia in exchange for Teschen and expand its alliance with Romania against the Soviet-Union to against the 3rd Reich also. If possible, establish a general Polish/Yugoslavian/Romanian/Czechoslovake alliance.

3. Poland is ready to threaten to forme an alliance with the Soviet-Union should Germany attack, Polish leader reflect that even a communist Poland is less worst than an exodus to the Urals, central asia or the US (Polish leader is not particulary amused by the USA´s "melting-pot").

4. Poland tries to establish better relations with the Soviet-Union and Lithuania.

5. Poland would allow free German acess through the Polish corridor and let Dantzig go to Germany, if only in order to gain time.

6. The polish governement would forme a guerilla warfare army to fight an eventual German occupation and suggest to other governements and some political movements to engage in similar efforts.

7. The Polish leader was a genuine badass in WW1.


What happens?

... the leader gets overthrown by an officer clique somewhere between step 2 and 3, since everything on the list except 7 (and possibly 5) runs against every fiber of the Polish political culture of the time.

Poland won't (militarily) oppose the Anschluss unless another nation is doing it as well. Mussolini is your best candidate for another nation to oppose the Anschluss; he rather liked the Austrian buffer zone.

Alliance with Czechoslovakia...not going to happen, if you're giving up the Polish claims in Teschen. If you can have them resolved early on (preferably by just settling it with enough ethnic Czechs before WWI for Poland to not really demand it), it's a possibility, but not as late as Pilsudski's death. As for the general alliance, see Pilsudski's grand dream of Miedzymorze.

Alliance with Soviet Union...unless Poland is really desperate, not gonna happen.

Handing Danzig back to the Germans is a possibility, but it depends on how long that leader thinks he can stay in power if he's seen kissing Nazi arse that way. Ditto for the guerilla warfare scheme; when a nation starts building an army whose purpose is to fight a guerilla war, a lot is said about the confidence that that nation's leaders have in winning a conventional war.

Miedzymorze

Polish Eagle is right essentially. The East European governments were skeptical of Polish aims. That will have to change too.

POD can go back to the 5 years prior to WW1, if necessary.

Polish Eagle said:

Poland won't (militarily) oppose the Anschluss unless another nation is doing it as well. Mussolini is your best candidate for another nation to oppose the Anschluss; he rather liked the Austrian buffer zone.

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They propose to France a join attack against Germany, tries well to have contacts with Italy and Hungarya.

Polish Eagle said:

Alliance with Czechoslovakia...not going to happen, if you're giving up the Polish claims in Teschen.

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Would the Czechs keep to Teschen even as Germany becomes somewhat threatening and makes even larger territorial demands?

Wyragen-TXRG4P said:

They propose to France a join attack against Germany, tries well to have contacts with Italy and Hungarya.

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Then France will decline. Unless they get Britain to join, too. Which they won't.

Wyragen-TXRG4P said:

Would the Czechs keep to Teschen even as Germany becomes somewhat threatening and makes even larger territorial demands?

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Perhaps. What do they stand to gain from this?

Wyragen-TXRG4P said:

POD can go back to the 5 years prior to WW1, if necessary.

They propose to France a join attack against Germany, tries well to have contacts with Italy and Hungarya.

Would the Czechs keep to Teschen even as Germany becomes somewhat threatening and makes even larger territorial demands?

Click to expand...

You must look at politics in eastern Europe from a less modern view. Now, we know that Hitler and Stalin were the worst possible foes for Poland, the Balts, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. But in the 1920s and 1930s, people had the expectation of a trench war against a Germany comparatively less capable than it was in 1914. When you're talking a trench war, fortifications are very important, and the Czechs thought they could take on the Germans themselves in such a conflict in 1938 (and, if the Czechs could hold the Sudentenland, they may even have been right). Poland expected a repeat of the 1920 Polish-Soviet War, where cavalry was massively important. And they both thought that France and Britain would step in if needed.

All these views make an alliance of the central European powers seem less and less important to their survival. The great strength of nationalism (meaning, in this sense, that people ought to be ruled by people of their own ethnic background) also made it so that Teschen would be a hot point until one or the other group moved out. (less well-known is the Hungarian claim to eastern Slovakia, which also acts against an alliance.)

So, if the Czechs think they can win a war against Germany without Polish aid, they're not giving up claims on Teschen/Cieszyn.

As for the war against Germany prior to 1938, some say Pilsudski did propose such a venture, and the French turned him down. Italy isn't going to go against Germany unless they can be sure of an Austria that won't just allow the Germans in, so you'll need to keep Dollfuss alive and powerful in Vienna.

Wyragen-TXRG4P said:

Say someone else than Edward Rydz-Śmigły comes to power after Piłsudski, someone who thinks the biggest danger to the Polish nation is Germany and somewhat skeptic of western politics in general, even if he tries to keep good relations with London and Paris.

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Not a problem. Dmowski the main rival of Pilsudski was such a man, as was his nationalist Endecja movement. In fact one of the missed opportunities in alternate history is possibility of non-Pilsudski Poland. It could very happen that he would die before the war as he engaged in military actions against Russian Empire, and during the war fought on the frontline.
Now with a POD 5 years before the WW1 you could have Endecja actually winning the competition with Pilsudski faction(which wasn't that influential untill end of WW1)-but that could lead to survival of White Russia and would change too much for Axis to exist in recognisable form.
If Pilsudski dies in WW1 or shortly thereafter you could have a more nationalist Poland that considers Germany as primary threat and is willing to accommodate Czechs(Endecja strongly believed that Germans are the main enemy of Slavic people and were willing to ally themselves with other Slavic nations under the threat of Germany as part of the neoslavic ideology they embraced before WW1). The whole issue of Zaolzie could have been solved by diplomacy and plebiscite . While the relations probably wouldn't be that great, the would be enough to guarentee a joint support against German invasion.

Other POD's that could help you with this:
Poland gains Gdańsk after WW1-making Germans more active against it in post-war era, and thus making Poles more inclined to ally with Czechs. With Gdańsk Poland also saves enormous amount of resources and money from building Gdynia which can be used to boost military and defences.
May Coup in Poland fails, and Pilsudski gets shot, making his opponents gain power.

Ironically Poland under Endecja wouldn't be initially dictatorship like under Pilsudski but more democratic, and at the same time very nationalistic as well as trying to get Jews leave the country both by discrimination as well as encouraging Jewish state in Palestine(they tried this in OTL). While France would continue to support Poland, I can see relations with Great Britain being hurt.

So you could end up initially in war between Poland, France, Czechoslovakia, Romania in one camp and possibly Germany, Hungary in the other.

If the May 1926 coup succeeds you can also have an earlier war with Germany during the Anschluss. It might very well happen that Endecja turns to Fascism(to be honest they already were like that in late 30s and aligns itself with Italians, and Hitler will denounce Mussolini due to his close relations with Poles.A Fascist versus Nazi conflict is quite possible, especially due to Catholic nature of Fascist movement in Italy and Poland(as well as Spain) as opposed to neopagan and cult-like tendencies in Nazi movement(as well as their opposition to Catholicism).