Were you still up for Balls?

[Constantinople]

Originally Posted by Thande

Yeah, the Lib Dems will have much more power here. The Tories' best strategy is probably to agree to an STV referendum and then muck about with it as with the Australian ones so the question is "STV, AV or FPTP" in the hope they can split the reformist vote.

Probably, though I can't imagine the Liberals putting up with much in this situation.

Either way, seeing Labour smashed down this much just brings joy to my heart.

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by thevaliant

I have to say, this is the first time ever I have seen an alternative history post of an ongoing TL which covers just 1 minute of time!

I've seen days, weeks, months or even years covered in one post but not just one minute!

There's a bit just after 4 O'clock where we may be down to seconds. About 27 seats have the same declaration time.

[Constantinople]

Update this soon! It's super exciting. Pretty much what I hoped would happen in 2010...

[FletcherofSaltoun]

Originally Posted by Thande

Yeah, the Lib Dems will have much more power here. The Tories' best strategy is probably to agree to an STV referendum and then muck about with it as with the Australian ones so the question is "STV, AV or FPTP" in the hope they can split the reformist vote.

The Lib Dems should insist the referendum is made using AV then....

[iainbhx]

BBC Election Night Studio

A short film is played for key results so far during this several results arrive


Tamworth Conservative Gain from Labour

Totnes Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

South Derbyshire Conservative Gain from Labour

Chelmsford Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

David Dimbleby: It's just gone three am in what must be one of the most temptestous and longest election nights since the 1945. It looks very much like the United Kingdom will have a hung parliament. Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are making substantial gains from the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats are mainly defending their seats and taking some seats from the Conservatives. We believe that the Conservatives will be the largest party and that the Liberal Democrats will double their number.

Normally, we would present some of the results that occurred during our recap film, but we will just go to an OB in Doncaster Central, where Ed Milliband is defending his seat. Obviously, key results will still come in at the bottom of your screen as we broadcast the live declaration. Over to Riaz Khan in Doncaster.

Antrim South Democratic Unionist Hold

RK: Thank you, David, we have a few seconds before that start, but Labour has held one of the three seats here with a vastly reduced majority, the other held by Minister of State for Local Government Rosie Winterton is not yet ready to declare, but we understand it may have been lost. Here we go

I, Paul Hart, being the Returning Officer for the Seat of Doncaster North, do declare that the number of valid votes cast in this election was

Foyle SDLP Hold

Fifty Thousand Eight Hundred and Ninety Five. The votes validly cast for each candidate was as follows:

Andrews, Liz (UK Independence Party) Three Thousand Four Hundred and Seventy Six
Brodie, Sophie (Conservative) Seven Thousand Seven Hundred and Forty One
Chambers, Pamela (BNP) Seven Thousand Four Hundred and Ninety Seven
Milliband, Ed (Labour) Nineteen Thousand, Three Hundred and Eighty One
[Some cheers, but muted]
Rawcliffe, Bill (Trade Union and Socialist) Two Hundred and Seventy Five
[A cry of "Splitters"]
Sanderson, Ed (Liberal Democrat) Twelve Thousand Five Hundred and Twenty Five

Hertford and Stortford Conservative Hold

I hereby declare the aforementioned Ed Milliband, has been elected as the member of Parliament for Doncaster North.

RK: A 7,000+ majority, but I think that's less than 40% of the vote. He got 55% last time. But given some results I've been hearing in Yorkshire, he'll probably be quite pleased.

DD: Thanks Riaz. So one of the Quadruvirs of the Prime Minister has survived. The question is who will play Brutus first.

Erewash Conservative Gain from Labour

EM: Do you want to see the Milliband result?

DD: I think we are a bit behind with seats that have changed hands, lets do those and then see if we can have a few minutes with the panel.

EM: OK, first up, Tamworth, a classic Midlands marginal that has gone back to the Tories.

Staffordshire, Tamworth

Electorate: 72,212
Turnout:  71.81%

Conservative Gain from Labour

Christopher Pincher Con   21,347  40.9%   + 3.8
Brian Jenkins*      Lab   13,991  26.8%   -16.2
Jenny Pinkett       LDm   12,749  24.4%   +10.3
Steven Fowler       UKIP   3,827   7.3%   + 4.5
Charlene Detheridge ChP      282   0.5%   + 0.5

Majority : 7,356 (14.1%)
Swing : Labour to Conservative 10.0%

EM: That's swing is a bit less than the Coalfield swings, but another UKIP deposit and another marginal lost for Labour. Now Totnes, where the Tories tried a new procedure for selected their candidate, that may be in question given the result.

Devon, Totnes

Electorate : 67,595
Turnout : 77.36%

Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

Julian Brazil    LDm  22,166  42.1%  + 5.0
Sarah Wollaston  Con  21,308  40.5%  - 2.4
Jeffrey Beer     UKIP  4,555   8.7%  + 1.2
Carole Whitty    Lab   1,741   3.3%  - 8.7
Lydia Somerville Grn   1,504   2.9%  + 2.9
Mike Turner      BNP     947   1.8%  + 1.8
Simon Drew       Ind     279   0.5%  + 0.5
Stephen Hopwood  Ind     103   0.2%  + 0.2

Majority :  857 (1.6%)
Swing : Conservative to Liberal Democrat 3.7%

EM: A low swing but just enough, Labour collapse to 4th behind UKIP. Quite a low vote for the Greens considering Totnes reputation as the centre of alternative lifestyles in Devon.

Hemel Hempstead Conservative Hold


DD: Perhaps the panel here would like to consider the primary later.

EM: South Derbyshire next, once Edwina Currie's old seat, it's lost it's Labour inclined Derby wards now, which means that it was probably going to be a fairly easy pickup for the Tories, but a close on 10,000 majority is pretty good for tonight.

South Derbyshire

Electorate : 70,615
Turnout :  78.41%

Conservative Gain from Labour

Heather Wheeler  Con  22,936  41.4%  + 3.9
Michael Edwards  Lab  12,999  23.4%  -19.5
Alexis Diouf     LDm  12,733  23.0%  +10.1
Peter Jarvis     BNP   4,064   7.3%  + 3.3
Charles Swabey   UKIP  2,298   4.1%  + 4.1
Paul Liversuch   SLP     332   0.6%  + 0.6

Majority : 9,937 (18.0%)
Swing : Labour to Conservative 11.6%

EM: Despite this being a two way battle, still half of that disappearing Labour voteshare goes LibDem. Of course, the turnout makes that all moot as Jeremy will no doubt tell me. The Tories will be hoping that the new MP isn't another Edwina.

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Labour Hold

EM: We are catching up, Simon Burns was hoping to be a Minister in a Cameron Government despite a contretemps with a cyclist two years ago. The boundary changes were unfortunate for him and I understand the LibDems have pumped people in from Colchester for the last three weeks.

Essex, Chelmsford

Electorate : 77,347
Turnout : 76.37%

Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

Stephen Robinson LDm  25,449  43.0%  +12.8
Simon Burns*    Con   23,663  39.9%  + 0.4
Peter Dixon     Lab    4,189   7.1%  -19.9
Ken Wedon       UKIP   2,867   4.8%  + 1.4
Michael Bateman BNP    1,937   3.3%  + 3.3
Angela Thompson Grn      955   1.6%  + 0.5
Ben Sherman     Ind      166   0.3%  + 0.3

Majority : 1,866 (3.1%)
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 6.2%

EM: Simon Burns took the risky part with a Chelmsford trimmed down to the urban core and will be regretting that. Quite weak votes for the BNP and UKIP for an Essex seat. The Independent represented a "Less Tax on Beer" ticket.

DD: A noble cause, I'm surprised he did so poorly.

Airdrie and Shotts Labour Hold

EM: Another Derbyshire seat now, Erewash, it was thought it could be held, but Liz Blackman decided to step down and that can't have helped.

Derbyshire, Erewash

Electorate : 69,652
Turnout :  76.43%

Conservative Gain from Labour

Jessica Lee    Con  18,646  35.0%  + 5.4
Cheryl Pigeon  Lab  14,527  27.3%  -17.4
Martin Garnett LDm  13,719  25.8%  +12.3
Mark Bailey    BNP   3,565   6.7%  + 4.1
Jodie Sutton   UKIP  1,378   2.6%  + 0.7
Lee Fletcher   Grn     899   1.7%  + 1.7
Luke Wilkins   Ind     479   0.9%  + 0.9

Majority : 4,119 (7.7%)
Swing : Labour to Conservative 11.4%

EM: This is, of course, where Robert Kilroy-Silk stood last time for Vanitas and only just saved his deposit. Jessica Lee doing slightly better than most Tories this time.

Eddisbury Conservative Hold

DD: Well, we've caught up, so it's over to the panel. Alan Milburn, a grim night for you. How is it feeling.

AM: I think we've given the people thirteen years of solid government, we have made mistakes and we haven't learnt from them terribly well. I think whilst we have delivered, we have failed to communicate and we have failed to listen, It is especially obvious that we've failed to listen in most of our heartlands. I think we need to rest, reform and regroup. Obviously, there are lessons to be learned from our results in Scotland about why we are doing better there.

JG: That's easy, you've bribed them with Barnett money.

DD: Justine, you'll get your chance. That sounds like a coded call for a change of leadership, Alan.

AM: Of course not, Gordon Brown has been one of the great figures of New Labour, but we do need to reflect, it may be that for the next election, he may not want to stand.

Rhondda Labour Hold

DD: There, you've held the Rhondda. Do you think you would have held Darlington tonight?

AM: That's something I've been mulling over as the results came in. I think I have a personal vote and if we have lost it on a recount, I may have held it. There maybe a few Labour MP's who have stood down thinking that.

Ashfield Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour

EM: Well, Geoff Hoon won't be one of them, the Liberals have gained Ashfield by 10,000 votes

AM: If it had been Geoff standing that would have been 15,000.

DD: Justine Greening, before we go to the Ashfield result, what do you think of your party's performance tonight.

JG: Well, I'm saddened to be losing seats to the Liberal Democrats, I had hoped we would gain seats from them now we have shown that the party has changed. However, we are making great strides against Labour, it was always a tall ask to get a majority, especially with the financial situation making things more volatile.

DD: I'd have thought that would have made it easier to get change

JG: I found on the doorsteps that most people in Putney wanted change, they wanted a new government, but I got an impression that they felt we wouldn't be hard enough on the banks. The actions of the casino banks were a major player in this, but the structural deficit was important. However, David Cameron has led us back from the brink, another poor result tonight would have been disasterous.

Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat Hold

AM: 33% in a recession doesn't seem too good to me.

DD: Emily, can we look at Ashfield.

Nottinghamshire, Ashfield

Electorate : 77,361
Turnout :  74.3%

Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour

Jason Zadrozny  LDm   25,256  43.9%  +30.1
Gloria de Piero Lab   14,761  25.7%  -22.9
Garry Hickton   Con    9.582  16.7%  - 7.5
Edward Holmes   BNP    5,834  10.1%  +10.1
Terry Coleman   UKIP   1,506   2.6%  + 2.6
Eddie Smith     Ind      540   0.9%  + 0.8

Majority : 10,496 (18.2%)
Swing : Labour to Liberal Democrat 26.5%

EM: If that's not the biggest swing of the night, I'll buy a hat and eat it. That's a gain from a poor third. The LibDems have been making hay in Ashfield in local elections and obviously have a huge campaigning machine, but that's still a massive swing.

DD: Chilling if you are in the Labour party, although Ashfield has a history, it had a massive swing in a by-election in 1977. Ros, the situation in general and Ashfield in particular.

Bolton South East Labour Hold

RS: Well, David, when today started, I thought we might gain twenty to thirty seats, I knew that if we did Ashfield would be one of them - Jason Z is probably the most formidable campaigner we have, although Ed Fordham might be the other choice. It's a great result amongst many. I'm so pleased that so many of the people I've met and worked with over the last year are being elected.

DD: So what do you think of Jeremy's prediction, how will you cope with that.

RS: Well, it was unthought of that we would get 138 seats, if we do, I think we will all have to think about how to cope and where to go from here. However, I think our coping process will be a lot happier than the Tories or Labour's

DD: "if we do", do you think you might fall short?

RS: My understanding from Cowley Street is that we may well actually do a bit better than that.

DD: Good Grief. We will have to ask Jeremy for a prediction update at some point soon. However, we need to do a quick tour around the party leaders.

State of the Parties 3:10am Con 47, Lab 40, LDm 21; DUP 5, PC 4, SNP 3, SF 2, SDLP 2, All 1, Ind 1

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Constantinople

Update this soon! It's super exciting. Pretty much what I hoped would happen in 2010...

I sort of hoped the Tories would do better and that LD gains would only be at the expense of Labour, PC and the SNP.

[Constantinople]

Originally Posted by Wendell

I sort of hoped the Tories would do better and that LD gains would only be at the expense of Labour, PC and the SNP.

Well that would be ideal. However, as it is, this result is far better than in OTL. I mean look, Labour has been demolished! That's what they get for driving Britain in the toilet these last years.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Constantinople

Well that would be ideal. However, as it is, this result is far better than in OTL. I mean look, Labour has been demolished! That's what they get for driving Britain in the toilet these last years.

Labour looks demolished so far, but there are many races still to be called in this timeline.

[thevaliant]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

EM: This is, of course, where Robert Kilroy-Silk stood last time for Vanitas and only just saved his deposit. Jessica Lee doing slightly better than most Tories this time.

A mistake by you, or Emily (and deliberate or not)?

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by thevaliant

A mistake by you, or Emily (and deliberate or not)?

Accidental by me, that's what I always called them, because they were an utter vanity party by a very orange person.

Just be happy I haven't called the Labour Party Neues Arbeit

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Constantinople

AV or better! I mean the sheer power of the Liberals in a Con-Lib Coalition will be probably enough. Clegg is king maker and not in a small way.

My knee-jerk feel is that unless Clegg (in this scenario) can get STV straight out (all right, maybe in a referendum), he should find some way of going into principled opposition and forcing either a very weak minority Government or a Grand Coalition.

If it remains FPTP, then the "two horse race" meme will become very powerful and the Lib Dems will want the boost that opposing the unpopular will bring. A Grand Coalition would be ideal - let the other parties administrate the painful cuts and take the hit.

However, market sentiment may well not allow a weak Government to be created (well - it would allow it, obviously, but if the UK got a huge economic hit from Clegg staying in opposition, he'd lose a lot of that potential support). Difficult.

If it could somehow transpire that the more centrist Labourites split away to prop up a Cameron minority, it would be the Lib Dem perfect storm - a big boost to numbers, second place in many others, support boost from opposition to unpopular cuts and a split in Labour.

[thevaliant]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

Accidental by me, that's what I always called them, because they were an utter vanity party by a very orange person.

Just be happy I haven't called the Labour Party Neues Arbeit

Agree with the first! Complete policy-free Kilroy-Silk (saw him on Question Time once - what an idiot).

Looked up the second..... Literal translation!

[Constantinople]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

Accidental by me, that's what I always called them, because they were an utter vanity party by a very orange person.

Just be happy I haven't called the Labour Party Neues Arbeit

Update?!

[Meadow]

Haven't look at this in ages. It's superb, although painful to watch for anyone with a lefty bone in their body. I shudder to think what's going to happen to the country after all this. Still, I say this as the man who's put Britain through four years of Stalinism in the late 1930s and is about to plunge it into a war! Wouldn't want to be hypocritical.

Great work, would it be too late to request a breakdown of Croydon Central and/or Croydon South? The latter is my home seat but is a very safe Tory one so is probably less interesting. Central on the other hand came down to the wire somewhat, with the current MP standing as an independent.

Leeds Northeast would be great too, if possible (stumped there in 2010).

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by Constantinople

Update?!

Did one last night, will do a small one tonight after canvassing.

I do have a job to do and elections to win.

No lunchtime cameo today

[Constantinople]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

Did one last night, will do a small one tonight after canvassing.

I do have a job to do and elections to win.

No lunchtime cameo today

Awesome! This Liberal Democrat party your bringing into being in this, is it very much orange book-tastic? I mean will we end up with a slightly more lefty-but-nevertheless-liberal-Nick Clegg of OTL?

[stodge]

I've just caught up with the last three pages - I've not had a chance to log in since Monday.

I don't normally sit through a "live" election night - I've usually been up since 6am either doing "Good Morning" leaflets or getting the Committee Room open or doing the first hour or two of telling and by the close of poll I'm pretty much shattered so normally it's the exit poll, an hour, a Horlicks and then bed.

In 1997, I had worked in Tom Brake's seat but spent election day in St Ives, Cornwall (Andrew George's seat, long story, don't ask) where they were also holding County Council elections and a couple of District Council by-elections.

I did the opening hour at the school at the top of St Ives town and worked through, with just an hour's break, until taking the last hour telling at the church hall in Zennor on the north coast. I called it a day at 9.45pm, it was dark, the battery in the torch was dying and I was knackered.

I went back to the Hotel, heard the exit poll and went to bed - St Ives counts on the Friday morning because they have to get the votes over from the Scillies so by the time I went down to the St John's Hall in Penzance, I knew Tom Brake had won and we had taken control of Cornwall County Council.

We all waited outside for the result - Andrew got in by some 8,000 votes. I would guess from what I've seen so far that both St Ives and Carshalton & Wallington will stay in the LD column and that possibly some of the OTL reverses in Cornwall (Julia Goldsworthy) won't happen either.

In London, I'm wondering if the LDs will take Lewisham West & Penge from Labour and I imagine Richmond (both constituency and Borough) will be interesting.

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by Constantinople

Awesome! This Liberal Democrat party your bringing into being in this, is it very much orange book-tastic? I mean will we end up with a slightly more lefty-but-nevertheless-liberal-Nick Clegg of OTL?

This is going to be the interesting thing, I have no idea of the opinions of a number of the new MP's and it's something I have on the list to research when we have a stable election result.

Anyway, it's going to be a small horde of Liberal Democrats, so you can expect more opinions than members.

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by Meadow

Haven't look at this in ages. It's superb, although painful to watch for anyone with a lefty bone in their body. I shudder to think what's going to happen to the country after all this. Still, I say this as the man who's put Britain through four years of Stalinism in the late 1930s and is about to plunge it into a war! Wouldn't want to be hypocritical.

Great work, would it be too late to request a breakdown of Croydon Central and/or Croydon South? The latter is my home seat but is a very safe Tory one so is probably less interesting. Central on the other hand came down to the wire somewhat, with the current MP standing as an independent.

Leeds Northeast would be great too, if possible (stumped there in 2010).

I think I can probably manage all three, although as you rightly point out Croydon South is about as interesting as the tarmac drying outside my flat at the moment.

I am still developing in my fetid little brain the post-election scenario and one of the three options you might not be unpleased with. I've already ruled out the two loopy ones.

Mind you, I still maintain that anyone with a lefty bone in their body should have been fairly displeased with the previous government.

[Meadow]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

I think I can probably manage all three, although as you rightly point out Croydon South is about as interesting as the tarmac drying outside my flat at the moment.

I am still developing in my fetid little brain the post-election scenario and one of the three options you might not be unpleased with. I've already ruled out the two loopy ones.

Mind you, I still maintain that anyone with a lefty bone in their body should have been fairly displeased with the previous government.

Fairly displeased perhaps, but I equally maintain that those same left-boned comrades will be (and indeed are, in my experience) far more horrified to see unbridled Gladstonism unleashed on our poor, unsuspecting land. Neoliberalism was bad enough, to have Clegg, Alexander and Cameron unleash classical liberalism on us was just too much. The gods are cruel sometimes.

But let's save the political back-and-forth for an AH.com UK meetup pint some day. I'm sure we actually have plenty in common, not least that we're both in parties that at some point in their recent history went in public status from 'ineffective lefties' to 'blood traitors'!

Can't wait to see how 'my' seats go, thanks for taking them on. Don't feel you have to do Croydon South though unless there's an interesting dynamic you want to pull (you probably know already but the Lib Dems leapfrogged us, perhaps there's something you could do with that given the overall arithmetic you're working with). If you want to know how feasible it is for the incumbent in Croydon Central (Andrew Pelling) to hang on as an independent, PM me with some background on this groundswell of support for minor parties/candidates you're bringing in and I'd be happy to help with some local issues.

In Leeds Northeast, I do hope Fabian survives. 5000 majority IOTL and the Tory was an absolute tosser (and I say that without bias - really a terrible potential MP), and besides, ITTL Me will have got a lot of sore feet for nothing.

Funnily enough, I trapped a nerve in my foot on polling day last year so was shipped off to the phones in Constituency HQ. That was after, or rather during, the 'good morning cards' rounds in the morning so I did have some final impact on the day on the ground. I'd been knocking up the seat for about ten days prior though, that was probably what destroyed my foot.