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#261
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You can imagine what relations are between Ken Clarke and Hilton. There's an awful lot of Ken Clarke in Peter Mannion ![]() |
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#263
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Here's the map of twenty to five. Wondering if Jack Straw will lose his seat, sitting on an 8000 majority in Blackburn...
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#264
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Stourbridge, Swansea West, Glasgow Central, Bethnal Green and Bow, Birmingham Edgbaston, York Central, Redditch, Birmingham Northfield, Aberdeen South and Birmingham Hall Green. In about two months that will be 11 as I move to Birmingham Yardley. |
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#265
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#266
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No matter what, my personal view of politicians is that you never, never insult the electorate. Challenge their views, point out they may be wrong, but never insult them. Gordon in OTL did the only thing he could do which was to apologise. To not do so, in any ATL, should be political death for a party.
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#267
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Colour piece
The NIA, Birmingham
It was 4:30, The Councillor had now been up for 24 hours, 24 very stressful hours. He could do with a shower, a sleep and a stiff drink, he was on his third packet of fags and he had to be back here at 13:00 for his local election count. Apart from wanting to brain the DARO, the rest of the count for Yardley had gone fairly well. The DARO had spent half an hour chasing down a discrepancy of 15, only to come to the parties to grovel to allow the error and two people had pointed out his mistake in adding up. He could have been home and in bed by now. His iphone was virtually dead, battery on red and just getting the odd text from a friend, he didn't dare check email. It was amazing who took up smoking during the duller phases of a count, the undercroft had been full of various politicians as soon as verification was over. The rumours were rife, but as the time ticked on, they firmed up. Labour were pretty unhappy, they had started off the evening a lot happier, but as counts went on, it was obvious that things were a lot closer than they had hoped for. Lemming would have the only five figure majority in Birmingham. The Hall Green postals hadn't been as bad as he feared, but there were a lot of rejects - although this time most of them didn't have tippex applied and a carefully ruled cross in red on them. It looked like Cllr Cavetroll was in, but it might be recount or election court territory. Mind you, Hall Green always had the potential to be election court territory. Edgbaston should have declared ages ago, but a full scale bitch-fight was in progress with hundreds of challenged ballots and constant interruptions. It didn't really matter, Ms Landshut 1973 would not be going back to Westminster and the council might have a working Health Scrutiny Committee again. Hodge was sending the Red Mekon back to Westminster, but not with a majority as large as it had first been thought. If Tariq hadn't have been so lazy and so addicted to "deals". Erdington was close but not too close. If Mr Harman hadn't have received lots of union love in the last two weeks, then little Bobby could have been presenting hundreds of petitions at Westminster. Just imagine if one of the other candidates in the selection had won. Perry Barr was also safely Labour, mainly thanks to dodgy deals and a Tory spoiler campaign. Northfield was heading for a recount, The Councillor hoped Mrs Huxtable had pulled it off, he had a pony on her at 8-1. Selly Oak looked horrid, Radcliffe thought he had a chance, which would therefore justify his ignoring all the target seats to work on his own. Wanker. Plus he'd had money on Nasty Nigel, who had faded to third on a tidal wave of student votes. He knew that was true, Nigel had stalked out of the count about 3am. Ladywood was recounting, The Councillor wondered why, it would end up in the Courts, either the Election Court or the Crown Court and this time, maybe the conviction would stick. If it did, he'd bring a magnum of Pol Roger to council tea and there'd be a fair few Labour councillors who would join him in the toast. Mind you, Labour still wouldn't expel the miscreants; too many powerful biraderi connections. The council results could be interesting, he'd already heard a couple of interesting rumours, all he really cared about was that he was back in with about double his previous majority. "Can all Yardley counters come to the declaration stage". Thank Fuck, it was over. |
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#268
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Romford, Harwich and North Essex, Kensington, Sleaford & North Hykeham, Banff & Buchan, East Hampshire, Huntingdon, Maidenhead, Aylesbury, Wantage, Uxbridge & Ruislip South. Now I'm back in Wantage. That's about eleven, I think (assuming that "West Falkland" doesn't count as a constituency?). Not bad for age 38.
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The Fourth Lectern; Maybe the Horse Will Learn to Sing/The Fifth Lectern - UKIP enter the 2010 UK Election debates |
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#269
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#270
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Don Foster now has a ultra safe seat ... Though it is clear that the bulk of the result is due to national swing and an even worse bigotgate and a better Clegg performance in the debates. I suspect that this might spurr some rather interesting discussions among the local Conservatives in Bath. I was at the count that night and it was freaking hard to see all these votes going to the Lib Dems. TTL I can easily see crying faces on my side once the extent of the humiliation became clear. Three years of campaigning gone to waste ... As it was the elections was hard for the Conservatives in the South West last year. But TTL this is even worse as it looks like apart from North East Somerset, the entire county will be yellow. Anyway at least Hattie has lot her deposit, as they say every cloud has a silver lining .Keep up the good work Ian! |
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#271
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I assume that Brown ITTL will be making his post-election walk of shame flanked by Labour Party members wielding Klingon pain sticks.
As an American, I don't have personal experiences of this election, but found the TL riveting all the same.
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#272
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BBC Results Thread 4:41am-4:50am
BBC Studio
David Dimblebore: Twenty to Five on the night of the most exciting election since the Second World War and just under half the seats have declared. The high turnout means that counts are taking longer, particularly in areas with councils being elected at the same time. It looks like the Conservative party will be the largest party after this election, but without a majority. The Labour Party have taken a fearful battering and the Liberal Democrats are having their best election since the 1920’s. After 5am, we will be taking a last trip around the nations and the regions and at 6am, we will hand over to BBC Breakfast. Chichester – Conservative Hold DD: Our panel for this last session consists of Kenneth Clarke, re-elected MP for Rushcliffe, former Cabinet Minister and Big Beast of the Conservative Party. Rutland and Melton – Conservative Hold KC: And that’s a Little Beast reelected. DD: Very droll, we also have Lord Mandelson, former MP for Hartlepool and the man behind New Labour. South Leicestershire – Conservative Hold DD: And Baroness Sarah Ludford, Liberal Democrat MEP. Here in the studio are Fiona Bruce doing news, Jeremy Vine doing analysis and the swingometer and Emily Mathis doing individual results and I’ve just been told we are going over to Rotherham for one of the most surprising results of the election. OB Rotherham James Vincent: Hi, David, we are about to declare. Things have been bad for Denis McShane this election, he’s been dogged by various anti-campaigns against him not related to political parties and then the expenses were dragged up again with the news that the police are investigating him. He made a speech backing Gordon Brown over Bigotgate which ended up in him being egged and now, it looks like he’s lost his seat. Here we go Maidstone and the Weald – Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative I, Martin Kimber, being the Returning Officer for the Parliamentary Constituency of Rotherham do declare that the number of valid votes cast in this election was SixtyThree Thousand Five Hundred and Sixty Nine. The votes were cast for each candidate as follows: Marlene Guest, British National Party, Ten Thousand Nine Hundred and Ninety Four (Some cheering, the silence, then a loud cry of “Christ”) Dennis McShane, Labour Party, Ten Thousand Nine Hundred and Five (Lots of booing, shouts of No Shame for McShane and “he’s been beaten by the BNP) Rebecca Taylor, Liberal Democrat, Thirteen Thousand (Shouts of Thank Fuck for That and wild clapping). I’ll start again. Thirteen Thousand, One Hundred and Thirty Three (More cheering and clapping) Peter Thirlwall, United Kingdom Independence Party, Six Thousand, Five Hundred and Thirty Nine (Some clapping) Jackie Whiteley, Conservative Party, Four Thousand, Eight Hundred and Thirty Five And I hereby declare, the aforenamed Rebecca Taylor, the duly elected member for Rotherham. North Warwickshire – Conservative Gain from Labour Rotherham – Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour JamesV: Well, David, we have a stunning result here, not only have the LibDems won the seat, but Denis McShane has been beaten by the BNP. DD: Thank you, I hear you are headed back to Sheffield now. JamesV: We are, they are declaring very late in Sheffield BBC Studio DD: Can we have the result, Emily Code:
Rotherham Electorate: 63,579 Turnout: 72.95% Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour Rebecca Taylor LDm 13,133 28.3% +11.9 Marlene Guest BNP 10,994 23.7% +17.8 Dennis McShane* Lab 10,905 23.5% -34.2 Peter Thirlwall UKIP 6,539 14.1% +10.2 Jackie Whiteley Con 4,835 10.4% - 6.0 Majority : 2,139 (4.6%) Swing: BNP to Liberal Democrat -2.9% Hastings and Rye – Conservative Gain from Labour JV: The Coalfield, South Wales and Tyneside results have been very bad. Throw in a side order of expenses and a very metropolitan MP and you have a disaster. Newcastle upon Tyne Central - Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour EM: Well, the Lib Dems said they thought they had a clean sweep in Newcastle and they have, that’s also half the seats declared now. DD: Only half way through at 04:44, oh dear. EM: I’m afraid so, here’s a couple more results Code:
Kent, Maidstone and the Weald Electorate : 71,013 Turnout : 76.91% Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative Peter Carroll LDm 24,405 44.6% +22.4 Helen Grant Con 22,089 40.5% -10.3 Rav Seeruthun Lab 3,615 6.6% -17.6 Gareth Kendall UKIP 2,523 4.6% + 1.6 Gary Butler BNP 1,261 2.3% + 2.3 Stuart Jeffery Grn 601 1.1% + 1.1 Heidi Simmonds ChP 115 0.2% + 0.2 Majority: 2,316 (3.9%) Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 16.3% EM: That’s bad for Helen Grant, but her recent change from Labour was played heavily against her. The other thing to note is that Anne Widdicombe had a huge personal vote. Helen Grant has probably kept most of the Tory vote as opposed to the Widdy vote. DD: The Widdy vote, I like that one. Code:
North Warwickshire Electorate: 70,126 Turnout: 75.42% Conservative Gain from Labour Dan Byles Con 18,850 35.6% + 3.6 Mike O’Brien* Lab 18,284 34.5% -12.8 Stephen Martin LDm 9,930 18.8% + 5.6 Jason Holmes BNP 3,664 6.9% + 2.4 Steven Fowler UKIP 2,147 4.1% + 1.4 Majority: 566 (1.1%) Swing: Labour to Conservative 8.2% Devizes – Conservative Hold JV: I’m actually think of treating it as 650 by-elections, the model has gone to pot tonight. Code:
Sussex, Hastings and Rye Electorate: 77,956 Turnout: 75.93% Conservative Gain from Labour Amber Rudd Con 20,484 34.6% - 3.5 Michael Foster* Lab 17,691 29.9% -10.7 Nick Perry LDm 14,368 24.3% + 9.2 Nick Prince BNP 3,242 5.5% + 5.5 Anthony Smith UKIP 2,414 4.1% + 1.4 Sally Phillips Grn 941 1.6% - 0.8 Majority: 2,793 (4.7%) Swing: Labour to Conservative 3.6% EM: Now that is one of the better results for Labour tonight, quite a low swing against them DD: Didn’t the Liberals used to be close in Hastings? EM: Demographic change saw them off, the old seaside B&B’s in a lot of these resorts are now flats for benefit claimants DD: Right, we will just go and join Adrian Goldberg at the NIA in Birmingham for the first result of the night from that metropolis. Birmingham NIA OB AG: Good morning, David and welcome to the NIA. Once again, a large count in Birmingham has become a bit of a shambles, although veterans tell me it isn’t quite as bad as 2004. We were supposed to be declaring Edgbaston at 1:30, but here we are at 4:47 with the first declaration in Yardley. The seat has was taken from Labour by self-proclaimed “Love Rat” John Hemming after a dirty campaign against the Labour candidate and he looks like he’s held it with an increased majority although not as much as many people thought he should have held it by. “Cast were Forty Nine Thousand, Five Hundred and Twenty Six and the votes cast for each candidate were as follows. Duffen, Graham (UKIP) One Thousand Nine Hundred and Eighty Six Hemming, John (Liberal Democrat) Twenty Three Thousand Nine Hundred and Eighty One (applause and a faint cheer) Jenkins, Meirion (Conservative) Six Thousand Nine Hundred and Nine (A ripple of applause) Kelly, Lynette (Labour) Eleven Thousand, Nine Hundred and Seventy (Another ripple of applause) Lumby, Tanya (British National Party) Four Thousand Six Hundred and Eight And I hereby declare the aforementioned John Alexander Melvin Hemming to be elected as the member for Birmingham Yardley. AG: Well, that must be a disappointment for John Hemming, even with all his millions, he can only manage a 12,000 majority. I’m told Labour fought a strong campaign here and this result will surely gee them up a bit. We understand Hodge Hill will be next, where Liam Byrne looks sure to retain his seat with a splendid majority. Back in the Studio DD: Well, thank you Adrian. EM: That was an interesting analysis but with all due respect to Adrian and his local knowledge, not the one I’d make. It’s true that Hemming’s vote share hasn’t gone up much, but Labour’s has plummeted. The main thing appears to be Tories up 4% or so and the BNP up 4% or so. Sutton and Cheam – Liberal Democrat Hold DD: Another London result, perhaps we will get up to 10 before we hand over to the breakfast crew. JV: I think we will, but it could be a close run thing. Chippenham – Liberal Democrat Hold EM: That was a notional hold, it’s a very new seat and it was quite tight. Wilfrid Emmanuel-Jones was a very high profile candidate as a Black Farmer for the Tories and he’ll be disappointed. DD: Well, he makes splendid sausages. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative JV: Oh, that was the only Tory seat in Scotland. Back to 1997. DD: The winning candidate is, of course, David Steel’s daughter. EM: I have a couple more results Code:
Newcastle upon Tyne, Central Electorate: 60,559 Turnout: 73.36% Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour Gareth Kane LDm 16,727 37.6% +10.1 Chi Onwurah Lab 15,424 34.7% -15.8 Nick Holder Con 5,823 13.2% - 3.6 Ken Booth BNP 4,618 10.4% +10.4 Martin Davies UKIP 1,365 3.1% + 3.1 John Pearson Grn 435 1.0% - 2.9 Majority: 1,302 (2.9%) Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 12.9% Code:
Birmingham, Yardley Electorate: 72,301 Turnout: 68.45% Liberal Democrat Hold John Hemming* LDm 23,981 48.4% + 5.3 Lynette Kelly Lab 11,970 24.2% -11.5 Meiron Jenkins Con 6,909 14.0% + 3.4 Tanya Lumby BNP 4,680 9.4% + 4.2 Graham Duffen UKIP 1,986 4.0% + 3.1 Majority: 12,011 (24.2%) Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 8.2% EM: I don’t know what Adrian was going on about. I think he’s been comparing against the old Yardley seat not the new notional seat which includes a ward which had a higher Labour vote. DD: Result looks a bit odd though. EM: Well, yes, but that ward was in Sparkbrook and Small Heath which had a very strong second from Respect, although I doubt if there were many Respect voters in that ward. The apportionment will mean that there’s a minus voteshare for Respect not mentioned there. DD: Ah, I see. Wyre Forest – Independent Hold Code:
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Electorate : 66,607 Turnout : 78.93% Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative Catriona Bhatti LDm 17,200 32.7% +12.4 David Mundell* Con 16,155 30.7% - 4.5 Claudia Beamish Lab 11,414 21.7% -10.6 Aileen Orr SNP 6,054 11.5% + 2.4 Douglas Watters UKIP 1,140 2.2% + 1.2 Alis Balance Grn 589 1.1% + 1.1 Majority: 1,046 (2%) Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 8.4% (I admit it, this one was fiddled) DD: I see Doctor Taylor has been returned again, he’s obviously very popular. EM: He’s a very good local MP and takes a copy of the LibDem whip but doesn’t stick to it, his majority is down to 1,300 over the Tories though. Derby South – Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour DD: That’s Margaret Beckett gone. She’s not a government minister any more, but she is a big beast in Labour politics. EM: Yes, we will get that result as soon as we can. State of the Parties @ 4:50 am : Con 136; LDm 87; Lab 81; DUP 8; SNP 6, PC 4; SF 4; SDLP 3; Ind 2; All 1 |
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#273
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And the Lib Dems overtake Labour in seats declared! At this point, it looks pretty certain that Labour are third in both votes and seats.
(By the way, Mr Kimber in Rotherham read out the number of the electorate rather than the votes cast. Sack 'im).
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The Fourth Lectern; Maybe the Horse Will Learn to Sing/The Fifth Lectern - UKIP enter the 2010 UK Election debates |
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#274
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Quote:
The RO just reads what the DRO gives him or in Birmingham what the DARO gives him and Rotherham is not Pyongyang Central. Let's say he got flustered, he wasn't expecting to be on Telly. Personally, I think we should go back to more blokes (and wenches) in shiny chains reading the results out. But I suppose the chavs would moan, because they couldn't get such great bling at Lizzie Dukes. |
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#275
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I think you may have some company for Jacob, not all recounts will go the wrong way for all parties. The Labour party have lost 18 deposits so far, the Conservatives 2 (Western Isles and Glasgow East). "Losing Deposits" is, of course, a traditional Liberal (and Liberal Democrat) Glee Club song and has been for many years, sung to the tune of Waltzing Matilda. Perhaps Labour will take it up, if they are allowed such jollities as a Glee Club. Once a floating voter came across a polling booth, Went inside to cast his vote, When he came out, he found he'd voted Liberal. Who'll come a-losing deposits with me? Other such classics include "Exmoor B'ah Tat" including the wonderful couplet Then we shall 'av to shoot the dog ;Then we shall all be oop in court, "Marching on Bermondsey" and "Battle Hymn of the New Labour Party". |
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#276
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Are you planning on having the BNP gaining a seat? Kind of shocking seeing Labour place 3rd to them.
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#277
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Well this has been one of the better ATLs I've encountered here. With a 2010 General Election result that really seems to be going the Liberal Democrats way. It appears that they've come second in the popular vote and will likely be a close third in the share of seats.
Second in seats, afterall, is - even here - a very distant prospect for them. Subscribed to this thread now. |
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#278
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We have a problem Houston
I have one very, very dead laptop.
I also have a shiny new MacBook Pro which is now connected up. What I don't have is the magic spreadsheet, which is on the dead laptop. Mercifully most of the things I really need are backed up onto my external disc. Tomorrow I will go into reconstruction mode on the rest of the election. *sigh* a few things may change, but I will keep the basic intent. My apologies for this Iain |
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#279
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#280
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Oh shit. I feel for you.
-pause whilst I sprint upstairs to back up my currently totally un-backed-up TL to the external HDD- How dead is it? Can the HDD be taken out and connected up, or is that dead as well? If it doesn't boot up but starts and dies before booting, have you tried a live cd? I've managed to pull data off of several "dead" laptops by doing that (well, four, but that's four out of four - although one was only a partial retrieval). I'd be more than happy to try to talk you through it if there's any chance that it's not "really most sincerely dead" - just PM me. Then again, if you're a Linux geek as well who's tried everything and it's really gone, never mind.
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The Fourth Lectern; Maybe the Horse Will Learn to Sing/The Fifth Lectern - UKIP enter the 2010 UK Election debates |
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