1492: The year a star fell on Earth

[Condottiero]

"The chronicles say it was the year in which Isabel of Castille and Fernando of Aragon took the last stronghold of the Moorish Kings in Spain. The Astrologuers saw it growing in the sky and claimed that it announced their victory. The star disappeared a few days after Granada has fallen, and its disappearing was announced by an earthquake. It was also that year when the New world was discovered and when our nation was cleaned of the jewish stain. Star, victory, discovery and expulsion were unseen events that would soon be forgotten.

The following years the rains were more intense and the crops were good, but in the rest of Europe the rains were so intense that crops got rotten in the fields and famine and pestilence mastered the fields. Some people blamed the Pope (may God forbid them), some others blamed the followers of Luther, some others to the Turks, but nobody remembered the star that fell."

The idea is the following: year 1492 apart from OTL events there is one big asteroid that falls over Antarctica evaporating a big chunk of it and covering with black dust most of the rest of it, the ice will start to melt down making the sea level to increase...

I know we have already spoken/written about this, but how fast could it melt down completely?

Europe will be covered by the sea slowly. The Iberian Peninsula and Italy will not lose much territory but Flanders, the British Islands, big parts of France, Germany, Scandinavia, Russia and North Africa will be covered by the sea. What happens next? I suppose those people would migrate first to the higher lands in Europe, but as they become overcrowded, would they migrate to Russia/Africa/America?

What effects could it have in other parts? I suppose the civilized areas of the Americas would be relatively spared (as incans and aztecs lived in high altitude areas). What about Asia? I suppose that the most densely populated areas in China and India would be covered.

[Tyr]

The decent parts of Britain would remain...Could lead to quite a good steam punk world there...hmm...I should take a note of that....
Then again the gulf stream would stop and freeze northern Europe which would lock a lot of the water up again eventually and...hmm... Worldwide Ottoman Empire? Turkey is pretty high up and quite southerly.

[Bulldawg85]

Not to mention the Japanese islands would be having problems.

[Nicole]

Originally Posted by Bulldawg85

Not to mention the Japanese islands would be having problems.

They're rather mountinous, so at least some of Japan would survive- Most of the cities would be gone though.

[Tyr]

Japan would do better then most, most of its economy is about fishing, many can hop in their boats and set up shop on a new island.
India and China on the other hand...

[robertp6165]

Originally Posted by Condottiero

The idea is the following: year 1492 apart from OTL events there is one big asteroid that falls over Antarctica evaporating a big chunk of it and covering with black dust most of the rest of it, the ice will start to melt down making the sea level to increase...

The problem with this scenario is that any asteroid big enough to "evaporate a big chunk" of Antarctica and cover the rest of it with black dust would also probably lead to the extinction of most life on earth. We would likely be talking something as big, if not bigger, than the rock which doomed the dinos.

[jolo]

Also, the dust would be covered after the first snow fall.

How about a super nova, a gamma ray blast or the likes hitting the southern half of the world for a few weeks instead? But then the sea levels would rise quickly, and the storms would probably reach the northern half of the planet, too. I'm also not sure if build up of clouds would deflect any radiation short of blasting our whole atmosphere into space.

Also interesting: a whole swarm of rather small asteroids hitting the south pole in a short time. That might lead to a few months or years of higher sea levels, until the additional snow fall has transported the water back to the poles.

[Bryan H.]

This might or might not work but I thought I'd run it up the flag pole...

Perhaps an alternate method of raising the Antarctic albedo would be for Erebus (a Andean-type ash producing volcano) to erupt more or less continuously (similar to Kilauea.) The prevaling winds in Antarctica run more or less south to north. However, if they were to change direction to a southerly direction you could blanket the ice with volcanic ash that could absorb more heat than white ice.

Bryan

[wkwillis]

Cold climate from volcanos gives droughts in the warm dry areas as well as rain in the cold areas. Spain would have starving sheep everywhere until the peasants got hungry enough to eat the survivors.
Crop failures, tsunamis, etc. It would depopulate Earth enough that they would abandon attempts to invade the Americas for a generation. Then the Americas would have time to recover from the european plagues.

[Condottiero]

Would the several rocks falling be more possible to lead to a "waterworld" in the XVI century?

Although I still prefer the idea of a raising sea, what about the other way round? An ice age.

[Straha]

Why not have some survivors who are convinced that god is dead and that the peasents seeking equality caused this disaster. Have them attempt to take power in some nation then all get exiled to south africa where they enslave the locals...

[DominusNovus]

Originally Posted by wkwillis

Crop failures, tsunamis, etc. It would depopulate Earth enough that they would abandon attempts to invade the Americas for a generation. Then the Americas would have time to recover from the european plagues.

They'll likely never even get hit by the plagues in the first place.

[Tyr]

Assuming this is a very years later then 1492 and Europeans have had decent contact with Americans...So what if they recover from the plagues after 500 years? They will just be hit by them again when the time comes.

[wkwillis]

Originally Posted by Condottiero

Would the several rocks falling be more possible to lead to a "waterworld" in the XVI century?

Although I still prefer the idea of a raising sea, what about the other way round? An ice age.

Ice age? Perfectly possible. Global Warming is holding it back and gaining ground, but if you cover all of the northern world with ice down to 45 degrees, we would have a very different earth indeed.
Within a few hundred years the Sahara would be cool and verdent with forests everywhere.

[Galbatorix]

Originally Posted by wkwillis

Ice age? Perfectly possible. Global Warming is holding it back and gaining ground, but if you cover all of the northern world with ice down to 45 degrees, we would have a very different earth indeed.
Within a few hundred years the Sahara would be cool and verdent with forests everywhere.

the people in north europe will migrate to the south, ?will they be able to push the ottomans and the arabs south?

[Condottiero]

Originally Posted by Leej

Assuming this is a very years later then 1492 and Europeans have had decent contact with Americans...So what if they recover from the plagues after 500 years? They will just be hit by them again when the time comes.

Let's assume several rocks hitting the South Pole achieve to melt down Antarctica. The sea level would start to rise quite briskly, how fast could it be?
If it is slow enough, maybe more europeans would move to the Americas, specially from the Netherlands and England that would be covered by the sea.

[DuQuense]

the Ice age started in 200 BC So

5000 BC a passing Comet moving thru the Oorb Cloud hits another piece of rock,
POD IATL the second peice shatters into four pieces instead of OTL's three.

4000 BC the ATL forth piece hits a large hunk of Ice {several hundred cubic Kms} and knocks it out of Orbit, A new Comet is born,

400 BC the Comet passes inside the ?Roche? limit of Jupiter and breaks up into Thousands of pieces, and is sent on a new orbit/

398 BC The line of Debris intercepts earth, over the next several months, The Night is full of Shooting stars, This well re-occur every couple hundred years for the next couple Millennium.

350 BC The very first effect of this large increase of CO2, Begin to be felt, as slightly more rain, around the edges of various deserts.


1000 AD the Ice Has been stopped in it's tracks and the Greenhouse effect is starting to pull ahead.

1300 AD a Slight but noticeable rise in the Water levels, mostly due to thermal Expansion,

1500 AD the Rising Water levels has allowed increased Calving of Icebergs, that melt quicker in the Warmer water. A Feedback cycle has started

1800 AD The Growing population in Greenland...............

[Tyr]

Originally Posted by Condottiero

Let's assume several rocks hitting the South Pole achieve to melt down Antarctica. The sea level would start to rise quite briskly, how fast could it be?
If it is slow enough, maybe more europeans would move to the Americas, specially from the Netherlands and England that would be covered by the sea.

Would the Americas not be covered by city? I'm certain much of it would.
Besides its 1492, hardly anyone has been to the Americas, reaching it would be a pain.
England wouldn't be covered by sea, most of it would be fine, its just the south east (which also happens to be where we keep all our stuff...) that would be flooded.

[Condottiero]

Originally Posted by Leej

Would the Americas not be covered by city? I'm certain much of it would.
Besides its 1492, hardly anyone has been to the Americas, reaching it would be a pain.
England wouldn't be covered by sea, most of it would be fine, its just the south east (which also happens to be where we keep all our stuff...) that would be flooded.

Sure, but the people would not notice anything until some years later. I was considering an scenario were the conditions worsened in northern Europe forcing a migration to other places: America (the recently discovered continent), but also north Africa and South Europe.

[Tyr]

lol city, wtf was I thinking with that one... I obviously meant water.