Earlier Cold War

POD - Basically, the Soviets totally defeat Poland in 1920, and then move west into eastern Germany and get support from communist uprisings there. Further west, French and British forces that are still in the Rhineland join in a reluctant alliance with the small German army and anti-communist German units to stop the reds from moving any further west. Essentially, we get an east-west divided Germany by 1922 instead of 1949. The British and even the French agree to cut out the majority of the reparations and ease the limits on the German military to counter the communists to the east. Meanwhile, the communists in Hungary under Bela Kun hang on to power, and join with the Soviets to take land from Romania and establish a communist state in Slovakia.

Mussolini takes power in Italy as in OTL, and as a fervent anti-communist he is quickly accepted as an ally by France and Britain. In 1924, France, Britain, Italy, Belgium, the German Republic (capital in Frankfurt), Romania, Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, the 3 Baltic states, and Finland join to form the Brussels Pact, a defensive alliance against direct communist military aggression and attempted domestic subversion.

This is how I envision Europe in 1930 -
Red is the Soviet Union
Orange is the German Communist Republic
Magenta are other communist states
Dark Purple is France
Light Purple is Britain
Blue is the German Republic
Green are the other members of the Brussels Pact
Yellow are neutral nations

Does anyone think that this is plausible?

Why isn't Cyprus colored. This scenario looks like it could be trouble...

Wendell said:

Why isn't Cyprus colored. This scenario looks like it could be trouble...

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Sorry, I forgot to color in Cyprus. I believe that it would be British, so picture it as being light purple.

Paul Spring said:

Sorry, I forgot to color in Cyprus. I believe that it would be British, so picture it as being light purple.

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That's Correct.

Does anyone think that this is plausible?

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The USSR overrunning all that land? I would say yes.
As for holding it I would quite firmly say no given:
1. Only limited support in the occupied territories: True some Germans will support the communists but very few people in Poland, the Batlic states or Czecheslovakia would want Russian under any name on their soil.
2. Logistics: The chaos in Russia from the revolutions and various unrest reduces what industrial and agricultural potential Russia had.

If the Red Army had succeeded in reclaiming the Polish territory formally belonging to Russia just two years previously, why would they not reclaim the Baltic States and Finland as well?

MarkA said:

If the Red Army had succeeded in reclaiming the Polish territory formally belonging to Russia just two years previously, why would they not reclaim the Baltic States and Finland as well?

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They would like to, but they have basically stretched themselves to their absolute limit to achieve the success they have - overrunning Poland, defeating the last White Russian armies, helping the German communists take over part of Germany, facing off with British and French forces in the middle of Germany, and helping Hungarian Communists against Czechs and Romanians. Also, as soon as Finland and the Baltic states see the Soviets beat Poland, they form a defensive alliance among themselves and an informal agreement with the British and French who will provide them with more military equipment.

Their position is, however, EXTREMELY precarious in the event of a future conflict.

I think you may be underestimating the war weariness of the western allies and the fear the ruling classes there had of revolution among their own troops.

Allied troops during the Civil War Intervention were not particularly interested in either fighting the Red Army or proping up the Whites. I don't see why that should be any different in western Germany. Once the German reactionary 'armies' had been defeated with the help of Red Army troops, the German Communists would not need their help any longer. This frees them up for further anti-reactionary operations.

One interesting sideline would be this activity would place Trotsky in an almost unassabile position. Stalin's Socialism in One Country position would be entirely discredited and Trotsky at the head of a victorious revolutionary army and the hero of the international communist movement, would remain head of the Red Army in the field.

MarkA said:

I think you may be underestimating the war weariness of the western allies and the fear the ruling classes there had of revolution among their own troops.

Allied troops during the Civil War Intervention were not particularly interested in either fighting the Red Army or proping up the Whites. I don't see why that should be any different in western Germany. Once the German reactionary 'armies' had been defeated with the help of Red Army troops, the German Communists would not need their help any longer. This frees them up for further anti-reactionary operations.

One interesting sideline would be this activity would place Trotsky in an almost unassabile position. Stalin's Socialism in One Country position would be entirely discredited and Trotsky at the head of a victorious revolutionary army and the hero of the international communist movement, would remain head of the Red Army in the field.

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There would definitely be a lot of war weariness among the western allies, but probably not much desire for revolution on the communist model. In OTL, the allied troops who were sent to Russia during the Civil War tended to just want to go home, since the main war that their countries had been fighting was over and they didnt want to get killed supporting one side or the other in another countries civil war. Once the Soviets overrun Poland and move into Germany, though, there will be a sort of galvanizing effect on much of public opinion - its one thing when the communists were taking over a country that many thought of as still very backwards, but it was another thing altogether when they were moving into the middle of Europe.

There will certainly be some support for the communists in western Germany, France, Britain, and other countries - but it will probably be a distinct minority. There are plenty of conservatives and nationalists in all countries, and there are also lots of more moderate socialists who were already alienated by the Bolsheviks attitude that they were the only ones who had the answers and that everyone who disagreed with them was virtually a traitor. These attitudes will only be heightened once it becomes obvious that the Bolsheviks intend to spread their political and economic system to other countries beyond the old borders of the Russian Empire via military invasions.

A sort of uneasy truce will be reached when the Soviet forces reach the end of their tether and have to spend a considerable amount of time and effort dealing with guerillas who are still fighting their rule in locations ranging from Siberia to Central Asia to the Caucasus to eastern Germany and Poland. Meanwhile, the western Allies and the Germans are very war weary, and not ready to plunge into another war no matter how alarmed they are by Soviet advances. Hence the boundaries end up as you see them on the map - for a while at least.

A successful advance further into Europe will definitely strengthen Trotskys position a lot. Im not sure whether it would ensure him as Lenins successor or not - supposedly many of the Bolsheviks still disliked and distrusted him because he was a relative latecomer to the movement compared to most of the other top men, and because he was considered extremely arrogant and abrasive.

Another important difference is that there will be other communist states with a large amount of industry apart from the Soviet Union itself - eastern Germany and to a lesser extent Hungary and Slovakia and even Poland. I think that these will almost certainly be set up as separate communist countries, not as mere Soviet republics. This means that the Soviet Union is no longer the only game in town in the communist world. That could make things very interesting ...

The POD is that the Communists make peace faster than in OTL when the Germans have them on the ropes. They can rebuild their armed forces faster, they have more territory under their control, and the Allies are too busy fighting the Germans to interfere with the Reds by starting up a White revolution.
In 1918 the Russians just walk in to Poland before the Polish get organised at all. Ditto most of Eastern Europe. They take over the remnants of the AH and German Polish armies and are sitting on the Rhine by Christmas, staring at the French.
Now that is an earlier start to the cold war!

The Cold War is an old war

Heck, many historians argue that the Cold War was OTL already well in place before 1945-46, given such factors as socialist unrest in the US and industrialised western Europe from the 1890s onwards, and the post-WWI allied interventions in the Russian CW.

Well for one thing.... the Russian/communist right flank is quiet open, and aching for a flank attack.

MarkA said:

One interesting sideline would be this activity would place Trotsky in an almost unassabile position. Stalin's Socialism in One Country position would be entirely discredited and Trotsky at the head of a victorious revolutionary army and the hero of the international communist movement, would remain head of the Red Army in the field.

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Don't count Stalin out just yet. As has been mentioned, Trotsky had plenty of enemies in the USSR, and Stalin is the kind of guy who uses every lever he can grasp to further his agenda. Woe to those who underestimate the Georgian!

There is going to be a weird dynamic in the Eastern Bloc. Instead of one nation enforcing its will on all others, as in OTL's Cold War, we'd probably end up with a buch of independent communist states allied to the USSR. Given the personalities in Moscow, I'd expect a move to be made for more direct control of the Western territories. With any luck, it'd be China all over again.

What would the situation look like at the other end of Eurasia? Would an Eastern equivalent of the Brussels Pact be signed in order to contain Soviet expansion into, say, Mongolia, which in OTL was invaded by the Red Army in 1921 and formally turned into a Socialist Republic in 1924? Might the Republic of the Far East, a short-lived independent state in Eastern Siberia, be propped up by Western troops and used as a buffer zone? Might the Western powers get enough of a vested interest in a functional China to give the Nationalist government significant support? Lastly, might Japan successfully petition for control over the Kurile islands, Kamchatka and possibly northeastern Siberia?

In 1920, Pilsudski was able to grasp victory out of the jaws of defeat when the Soviets did attack with a gutsy gamble.

If Pilsudski were overruled, or killed, this wouldn't happen, and the Soviets would do as you suggest.

I think their next move, however, would not be towards Eastern Germany, but to the Baltics, with the Poles neutralized.

They'll be reluctant to go after Finland for fear of Swedish interference.

As for Germany, they likely try for Eastern Prussia if they have good success in the Baltics. Let's say they do and this makes them also decide to gamble it all and go for supporting the Communists in Germany proper.

At this point, the Soviets probably have invaded France's 'comfort zone', and it has only a little to do with whether Russia is Communist or not. And the British are really not liking to see Soviet Russia trying to dominate Europe (and that is what it will appear to them as; we can argue whether that is the Soviet intent at this point).

You forget one thing when you mention the 'small German army'. It is not indicative of the fighting force of 'reactionary' Germany available. If the Russian wolf is at the door, all those Freicorps men, all those angry WWI war vets, they are going to join with the remnant 'Reichswehr' to protect Germany; and the West is going to let them at this point, to keep the over-running of Germany from happening.

I think that the world is overall not ready for WWII, so there will be a limited time of fighting, then the world settles down into a cold war for a few years. Probably the Germans have lost East Prussia (and the Soviets are having to fight Prussian Partisans, yay). And Poland and Hungary and the Baltics are under the Soviet system. Not too sure about Slovakia, but what the heck, sure.

Hmmm, I see the end of Versailles essentially by 1921 in this world, due to the Soviets' successful run. However, there's a good chance that the Weimar Republic has fallen to a more authoritarian regime more capable of 'standing up' to the Soviets. Or maybe not.

A movement like the Fascists might have more support; but conversely, because the Germans haven't experienced the chaos of the Ruhr occupation and the runaway inflation as a result (and tons of loans from Wall Street), I suspect the Weimar will be stronger than you're giving it credit for.

Faeelin said:

A movement like the Fascists might have more support; but conversely, because the Germans haven't experienced the chaos of the Ruhr occupation and the runaway inflation as a result (and tons of loans from Wall Street), I suspect the Weimar will be stronger than you're giving it credit for.

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Oh, I'm not discounting the continued survival of Weimar as a possibility...its actually a much better chance in this timeline than OTL.

And while a right wing party might gain power, I think it more likely to be the military in this timeline than fascists. They've basically had most of the restraints removed from them, grown in numbers and strength, and now have an enemy they can point to (other than the entire world, that is).

I could see either outcome depending on the details.

I cannot see how the Baltics can remain independant.

I cannot see how even the most underconfident leader could reckon they could last against anything but the weakest force sent against them. Having just swept through Poland and into Germany confidence in the Red Army should be at an all time high.

What can the west do in responce that will prevent the fall of these states? Providing them with limited arms and training wont do much. I also cannot see how a Red Army which has travelled as far as Germany can be so stretched not to have the relatively small force these places should need to take.

Interesting. The timing on this catches the US at one of it's most isolationist phases, so the New World won't be involved much....

I like the idea of a Communist Europe, with only Britain holding out, and a Turkish/Turkestanni/Iranian/Arab ally to the south coherent because of religious belief.