Union Victory by September 1861

[Derek Jackson]

WI luck had gone the other way in July 1861, Bull Run/ Manassases is a clear Union Victory.

By August the Army of Northern Virginia does not exist and Richmond is in the hands of the lawful government of the United States.


In OTL Republicans and Lincoln though disliking slavery had not felt able to interfere with it. The Emancipation Proclamation was a war emergency measure and had the war been won easily there would be no emergency.


What happens in the South.


My guess is there would be no attempt at Social Revolution in the South but some leaders of the rebellion would have danced Danny Deaver, any thoughts

[Shawn Endresen]

I sincerely doubt the top members of the Confederate government could be taken this way; they'll escape Richmond and regroup in Montgomery. However, the prestige and confidence of the rebels is badly shaken; never mind that occupation duty in Virginia is going to be long and ugly, with bushwhackers that make the James brothers in Missouri seem harmless.

I wonder if Robert E. Lee will change sides? He was a Virginia patriot with seemingly little concern for either "national" government, if he accepts that Virginia is again part of the Union...Lee would be no bushwhacker, so we may see him in postwar politics...

Biggest problem is that Lincoln is going to want that success repeated, and grow frustrated when it can't be. McDowell is going to be sacked when he can't take Raleigh or East Tennessee with the same speed and decisiveness. I don't know much about McDowell's politics - would he mirror McClellan in 1864, I mean.

North Carolina will probably ask for status quo ante. But Lincoln and friends won't accept anything less than unconditional surrender, so it's a nonstarter.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Shawn Endresen

I sincerely doubt the top members of the Confederate government could be taken this way; they'll escape Richmond and regroup in Montgomery. However, the prestige and confidence of the rebels is badly shaken; never mind that occupation duty in Virginia is going to be long and ugly, with bushwhackers that make the James brothers in Missouri seem harmless.

I wonder if Robert E. Lee will change sides? He was a Virginia patriot with seemingly little concern for either "national" government, if he accepts that Virginia is again part of the Union...Lee would be no bushwhacker, so we may see him in postwar politics...

Biggest problem is that Lincoln is going to want that success repeated, and grow frustrated when it can't be. McDowell is going to be sacked when he can't take Raleigh or East Tennessee with the same speed and decisiveness. I don't know much about McDowell's politics - would he mirror McClellan in 1864, I mean.

North Carolina will probably ask for status quo ante. But Lincoln and friends won't accept anything less than unconditional surrender, so it's a nonstarter.

Without the factories in Virginia in 1861 how does the Confederacy maintain a sustainable war effort?

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

Without the factories in Virginia in 1861 how does the Confederacy maintain a sustainable war effort?

Poorly. Tennessee is a distant second to Virginia here, and the rest of the Confederacy increasingly further away - the Carolinas and Georgia are not very good.

And to respond to someone else, I'm not sure if Lincoln would sack McDowell for not making a miracle happen. If he thinks McDowell can do more and didn't, sure. Even less confident Lincoln "and friends", by which I assume means the Radicals(?), would demand unconditional surrender if the Union can be restored more peacefully. Maybe in 1864 or 1863, but not 1861.

[Snake Featherston]

I think this particular POD is the inverse of the "Confederates take Washington" idea. The two armies were too green to follow up First Bull Run with that kind of victory. The irony is that if the Union wins this first engagement it will be able to proceed to Richmond emboldened by the first victory, meaning that it might actually use the Army of the Potomac to *fight*. In which case the Confederacy falls apart in early 1862.