Plausibility check: von Lettow-Vorbeck in Ethiopia 1935?

I am considering writing a time-line where the Germans, smarting from the Italian opposition to Anschluss of Austria 1934 sends a sizable mission to Ethiopia early 1935, headed by von Lettow-Vorbeck. IOTL, they did sell thousands (probably 8000) of Mauser rifles, millions of rifle rounds, some machine guns and at least twelve 37mm AT guns to the Ettiopians.

I think von Lettow-Vorbeck opposed the nazis and refised honours they wished to eomplace upon him and was generally a pain in the arse for the nazi leadership - they wanted to use him in their propaganda, and he consistently refused. So sendint him to East Africa would be a good way to get rid of him.

So, what do you think? Would von Lettow-Vorbeck accept leading a military mission to Ethiopia? Could he attract former Ascaris (some now serving in the King's African Rifles) to his service? Could the Germans circumvent the arms embargo imposed by Britain and France - historically Madsen, Rheinmetall and Skoda cancelled extensive orders from Ethiopia?

Would the Germans sell some biplane fighters (Ar-64, He-51?) with "instructors" to fly them?

von Adler said:

I am considering writing a time-line where the Germans, smarting from the Italian opposition to Anschluss of Austria 1934 sends a sizable mission to Ethiopia early 1935, headed by von Lettow-Vorbeck. IOTL, they did sell thousands (probably 8000) of Mauser rifles, millions of rifle rounds, some machine guns and at least twelve 37mm AT guns to the Ettiopians.

I think von Lettow-Vorbeck opposed the nazis and refised honours they wished to eomplace upon him and was generally a pain in the arse for the nazi leadership - they wanted to use him in their propaganda, and he consistently refused. So sendint him to East Africa would be a good way to get rid of him.

So, what do you think? Would von Lettow-Vorbeck accept leading a military mission to Ethiopia? Could he attract former Ascaris (some now serving in the King's African Rifles) to his service? Could the Germans circumvent the arms embargo imposed by Britain and France - historically Madsen, Rheinmetall and Skoda cancelled extensive orders from Ethiopia?

Would the Germans sell some biplane fighters (Ar-64, He-51?) with "instructors" to fly them?

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Wasn't he allready pretty old in 1935?

Well, the biggest problem I see is actually getting said arms/troops/instructors
to Ethiopia which was, at the time, landlocked. IIRC there was quite a substantial amount of arms/equipment sitting in French Somalia which was held up by the French due to said embargo for the entire conflict. Djibouti's your only real way to get any serious amount of arms into the country as it has the only rail connection to Ethiopia. The other routes available, through Kenya and through Sudan have poorer infrastructure are much longer and still go through British/French territory.

Furthermore, positing a scenario where the Nazi's go for Anschluss in 1934 and get bitch slapped by Italy thereby giving them a motive for such an action in Ethiopia, one also needs to realize that such a scenario puts Italy firmly in the Allied camp. The Anglo-French-Italian alliance sought after by several notable British diplomats in OTL has been accomplished in TTL and thus Britain and France are going to be even MORE inclined to look the other way in Ethiopia in favor of keeping Italy on their side during future confrontations with Germany. Given better relations with Britain and France the Italians might just accept the compromise put forward in OTL that gave them 2/3rds of Ethiopia and a protectorate over the rump state.

Finally, you have the persistent problem of Nazi racial ideology in the matter. Though I guess it could be explained away as an example of realpolitik (using the Ethiopians to defeat Italy and topple Mussolini's government). That being said, aiding the Ethiopians formally would still raise some eyebrows.

That being said, it's a good concept but unworkable IMO.

He was 65 in 1935 (born 1870) and it seems in pretty good health. As a comparison, Mehmet Wehib Pasha, which served with the Turish military mission in Ethiopia was 58. Not that much of a difference, I guess.

Yes, I agree that French silent approval is needed - Dibouti must remain open and the railroad to Addis Ababa available to ship arms.

The nazi's DID go for Anschluss 1934, and WERE bitchslapped by Mussolini OTL (he rushed troops to the Brenner Pass) and the nazis DID sell arms to the Ethiopians. Generally, the nazis had no problems with "inferior" races serving them bravely (as the war would show). Nazi ideology was very pragmatic when it came to whom to support when it was needed. The Askaris of von Lettow-Vorbecks forces were usually held in very high regard in Germany, even during the nazi era.

What I am looking for is;

1. Some kind of POD that lets the French not enforce the ams embargo, or lets the LoN not issue an arms embargo. Italian-French tensions over Tunisia and Corsica? Mussolini being too interested in Djibouti?

2. Some kind of PoD (worse Austrian civil war? Direct Italian intervention?) that makes the Germans smart even more. So they sell arms and send a military mission to Ethiopia (the Belgians, Swiss, Swedes and Turks already had military missions in the country).

When the war does break out, the Germans sell arms and send a small cadre of volunteers to bolster their military mission.

Very interesting idea - quite like it. Hope you find answers to your questions.

1) how about Musso being too interested in Dalmatia amounting to Yugoslavia complaining to LoN and France/Britain having to do something to curb Musso's aspirations?

2) once did the War of Dictators 1934 - that would give Hitler a grudge.

so, moving onwards, what would von Lettow-Vorbeck do?

The Turks with Mehmet Wehip Pasha were training the feudal levies (mostly muslim) around Harar and building the "African Hindenburg Line". Defence, fortifications and entrechment.

The Swiss were training the Gendarmerie of Addis Ababa into a modern police force, not so much combat capability.

The Belgians trained and equipped the Imperial Guard into a modern fighting force.

The Swedes founded the Oletta cadet school to create a cadre of officers trained for modern warfare. They also trained some of the northern feudal levies and convinced them to dye their normally light grey or white garb khaki to be harder to spot in the terrain.

So, the Germans have the southern feudal levies left, along with the mostly disloyal nomads (those that betrayed the Emperor at Mau Cei). What can the Germans do?

German drill and manouver?
Modern rifles and ww1 era MGs?
Some light/mountain artillery?
Organisation in tactical units?
Dying the garb khaki?
Training of NCOs? Perhaps an infantry tactic school for NCOs?
A small volunteer air force (a dozen biplane fighters, perhaps?)

Can this, together with arms and perhaps the nomads not betraying the Emperor at Mau Cei, be enough for the Ethiopians to hold?

von Adler said:

so, moving onwards, what would von Lettow-Vorbeck do?

The Turks with Mehmet Wehip Pasha were training the feudal levies (mostly muslim) around Harar and building the "African Hindenburg Line". Defence, fortifications and entrechment.

The Swiss were training the Gendarmerie of Addis Ababa into a modern police force, not so much combat capability.

The Belgians trained and equipped the Imperial Guard into a modern fighting force.

The Swedes founded the Oletta cadet school to create a cadre of officers trained for modern warfare. They also trained some of the northern feudal levies and convinced them to dye their normally light grey or white garb khaki to be harder to spot in the terrain.

So, the Germans have the southern feudal levies left, along with the mostly disloyal nomads (those that betrayed the Emperor at Mau Cei). What can the Germans do?

German drill and manouver?
Modern rifles and ww1 era MGs?
Some light/mountain artillery?
Organisation in tactical units?
Dying the garb khaki?
Training of NCOs? Perhaps an infantry tactic school for NCOs?
A small volunteer air force (a dozen biplane fighters, perhaps?)

Can this, together with arms and perhaps the nomads not betraying the Emperor at Mau Cei, be enough for the Ethiopians to hold?

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Given that this is Von Lettow, and maybe some of his subordinates from the war, I can see them doing some pretty impressive things. Especially in regards to training. Maybe Hippel makes a test run with some Proto-Brandenburgers? Heck, Rommel might be sent along as well. IOTL in 1934 he was still a field commander and Infantry Instructor.

I was skeptical but if you craft a nuanced enough PoD to make this plausible, this looks like it could be a great idea for a TL. I'd certainly read it.

Lettow hated the Nazis and the feeling was mutual...on the other hand, perhaps this could be seen as him being "reassigned to Antarctica" (but, being Lettow, he pulls something epic out of it).

Germans in Africa would be considered a threat by all European Colonial Powers. Suddenly the Italian invasion would be much more justified.

Also: One problem was the state of the Ethiopian military. The emperor had only a small army that he had started to modernize with the help of Belgian and Swedish advisors, but the bunch of Ethiopian forces were still private armies of the vassals, governors and chiefs, and their loyalty was towards their master, not their master's master, which meant that when Ethiopian vassals, governors and chiefs started to switch side, they took their forces with them. Also, even though the emperor had started to modernize his own army, the armies of his vassals were still completely outdated and not really well trained.

This would make for an interesting TL.

British Pathe have some fascinating films of the Abyssinian preparations for war, including this one, which demonstrates the sort of drill the European (Swedish in this film) officers were conducting.

http://www.britishpathe.com/record.php?id=6258

Torn but Flying said:

This would make for an interesting TL.

British Pathe have some fascinating films of the Abyssinian preparations for war, including this one, which demonstrates the sort of drill the European (Swedish in this film) officers were conducting.

http://www.britishpathe.com/record.php?id=6258

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Still, the soldiers directly under the emperor was just a really small portions of the Ethiopian forces.

More plausible than one would initially think, for Vorbeck was only in German East Africa (now Tanzania) for a few months before the war started, effective 13 April 1914. Yet he got to know Swahili, lingua fraca it is guessed at that time. Before he was in China, Germany and Namibia, all non Swahili areas.

If he could have grabbed some of the other languages, Swahili only being spoken in some of the southern Eithiopia, and had authority to maneuver, it may have been possible to make a dent in the issue. Amharic would have been more formal, because Swahili is normally a common language with many regional variations and often spoken badly, whereas Amharic is some thousands of years as an imperial language, a whole different kettle of fish.

The main power he had is Vorbeck used western techniques and treated the askari as equals, a powerful guerrilla force.

Be advised that Lettrow Vorbeck told Hitler to go self fornicate, using the other more commonly used term in outrageous ways to the delicate psyche of the dictator, who put him under constant watch. It was in 1935. However, had Schickelgrubber gone off the deep end, and Lettrow Vorbeck escaped to the Netherlands, Smuts and other British Commonwealth generals/colonels were good friends by that time, which is another possibility.

yourworstnightmare said:

Still, the soldiers directly under the emperor was just a really small portions of the Ethiopian forces.

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Yeah that is true - I suppose the only way to make it work would be to concentrate on building up the Emperor's force into a centralised army. One can only imagine, however, that the various Ras and chieftains would not look upon that too kindly!

If it did happen I can see the Germans doing the same kind of thing they did in China, which was to concentrate on the training up of a couple of divisions coupled with (IIRC) a strategy based on a system of defensive blockhouses.

The troops in this film look remarkably well turned out and armed, but as you say the Emperor's troops in Addis Ababa were only a tiny fraction of the whole force.

http://www.britishpathe.com/record.php?id=52250

Torn but Flying said:

Yeah that is true - I suppose the only way to make it work would be to concentrate on building up the Emperor's force into a centralised army. One can only imagine, however, that the various Ras and chieftains would not look upon that too kindly!

If it did happen I can see the Germans doing the same kind of thing they did in China, which was to concentrate on the training up of a couple of divisions coupled with (IIRC) a strategy based on a system of defensive blockhouses.

The troops in this film look remarkably well turned out and armed, but as you say the Emperor's troops in Addis Ababa were only a tiny fraction of the whole force.

http://www.britishpathe.com/record.php?id=52250

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Yes, if Haile Selassie had tried to go against the elites before the italian occupation he'd been deposed, half of them didn't considered him legitimate anyways, and thought him a pawn of the Europeans. (Not to mention that the subjects who were neither Amhara nor Tigray probably would revolt).

Thande said:

Lettow hated the Nazis and the feeling was mutual...on the other hand, perhaps this could be seen as him being "reassigned to Antarctica" (but, being Lettow, he pulls something epic out of it).

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Reading that I know want Lettow fighting in (a potentially green) Antarctica.

Well, even if you get the Naziphobe Vorbeck on board one real difficult thing here is getting the French willing to work with the Germans at a time when France was in a near panic over the thought of German remilitarization and was actively courting Mussie as an ally. If Mussie's bitchslapped Hitler then the French will be very pro-Mussie, particularly as they too vehemetly opposed Anschluss at this point. Mussie needs to simultaneously appear the bigger threat to both sides, and to do this probably requires such unilateral action on Mussie's part (invades Yugo?) that the Ethiopian venture is at best a minor side conflict in a larger European war...and probably put on hold entirely.

OTL this was Laval's rightist France, which was pro-Mussie and more than happy to sell Ethiopia to the wolves. If we propose a leftist, anti-Fascist France that would willingly support Ethiopia then why bother supporting the ventures of the even-more-scary-and-hated Nazi regime? Easier to sell arms directly or send volunteer regiments. Theoretically, perhaps a willingness to let the Germans to the dirty work...but even then.

JUST MAYBE if Italy ended up at war with France and Britain over Ethiopia (this could have happened had more belligerent heads prevailed in Rome) then France could go for the "enemy of my enemy" approach...but even then, why not just send your own African armies to the horn? With the Suez now closed to Italy the Ethiopian Campaign is doomed anyway.

I'd call this highly implausible, but not impossible with the right pile of butterflies.

What if it's not the Nazis?

Here's my train of thought: 1934 Hitler goes all in for Anschluss perhaps due to a weaker Austrofascist government (he thinks he can win), German militia units pour across the border to aid Austrian Nazis along with loads of German military equipment. Hitler declares open support for the Austrian Nazis and threatens to move the nascent German army into Austria to support them. Italy doesn't like this at all and throws it's full support behind the Austrofascist regime moving troops across the border to suppress the Nazis.

Britain and France meanwhile jump onboard with this and threaten military interventions of their own if Germany doesn't back down. Hitler stays on course long enough to convince the army he's nuts and lo and behold the Army launches a coup removing Hitler and the rest of the Nazi's from power while establishing a provisional Military government. This military government remains in power and continues to harbor expansionist ideas but is far less aggressive than Hitler.

Meanwhile Italy has reduced Austria to a puppet state and is eagerly flexing it's imperialistic muscles especially towards the Balkans, Yugoslavia and Albania. As Mussolini tries to consolidate his control over Albania, King Zog pushes back resulting in an Italian invasion before the end of 1934 toppling the fragile monarchy and incorporating Albania into the Italian Empire. With Austria a de-facto puppet state and Albania incorporated into the Italian Empire, Mussolini feels invincible and begins preparing to rectify Italy's biggest embarrassment Abyssinia.

However, Fascist Italy's rampant imperialism has concerned both Britain and France who now see Italy as the major threat to stability in Western Europe. Furthermore Germany now under Military rule is still smarting from the embarrassing Austrian fiasco and is eager to get back at Italy. Italy's declaration of war against Abyssinia is just the excuse they need to get some payback. With tacit agreement from Britain and France Germany authorizes major aid to head to Abyssinia under the leadership of famed General Lettow-von Vorbeck.

The soldiers in khaki uniforms on the British Pathé videos (wonderful videos, by the way) are Keubur Zabagna (Great Watch, or more commonly translated, Imperial Guard). They were equipped with Belgian-produced Mausers and FN-Browning BARs, Czechoslovak ZH-29 semi-automatic rifles and ex-German MG08 machineguns (sold by the Belgians, who got quite a few as war booty 1919). They also had quite a number of 81mm Brandt mortars and 75mm mle 1897 field guns.

There's also the Mahel Safari (Army of the Centre, or more commonly translated, Regular Army) that is at least

We're not talking a direct German intervention here, just a military mission and selling arms. Perhaps the LoN does not issue a weapons embargo and before Mussolini can get the French to close Djibouti, quite a bit of arms and ammunition can have slipped through.

If von Lettow-Vorbeck is popular, sending him on a military mission can be a good idea to get him and his non-nazi popularity out of the way.