If Italy decided to stay loyal to its Triple Alliance commitment with Austria-Hungary and Germany (maybe intervening in 1915 or 1916 after A-H was forced by Germany to promise Trento and Gorizia to Italy), could the Central powers win the war? would be an italian intervention too much to bear for France? And what about the British position in Egypt, and the Italian one in Libya?
Italy on the Central powers' side: CP victory?
- Thread starter basileus
- Start date
Italy Joins the Central Powers
The Italian army was not worth much as a combat force. However not having to fight Italy releases a bunch of A-H divisions for use on the Russian front. And the presence of an Italian army in the Alps will force France to keep a few divisions to defend the region.
I think the real benefit is naval. The Italian navy was a capable force. Combined with the A-H navy, they can more or less choke off allied merchant shipping through the central Med.
The Italian army was not worth much as a combat force. However not having to fight Italy releases a bunch of A-H divisions for use on the Russian front. And the presence of an Italian army in the Alps will force France to keep a few divisions to defend the region.
I think the real benefit is naval. The Italian navy was a capable force. Combined with the A-H navy, they can more or less choke off allied merchant shipping through the central Med.
Dave Bender said:
The Italian army WAS worth as a fighting force: it demonstrated it at the price of 650,000 dead whose revered memory you are now offending. It was poorly armed and badly led, but the soldiers fought very well (even in Caporetto, it was the generals, Badoglio over all, who made the disaster); they would have proved a thorn for France just like they did with A-H. And no, the navy in WWI wasn't so strong or capable, it was quite limited. It seems that you mistake WW2's Italy with WW1's.
I think on the Alpine front the Italian army could, in the end, capture Nice and enforce control over the main passes; another matter would be an all-out invasion of Tunisia from Lybia, with the risk of being overwhelmed by a British-Australian counterattack from Egypt joined with the Senussi revolt in Cyrenaica.
Italian troops would have been tied down defending Sicily and Sardinia and the coastline. Not a bad idea from Italy's point of view. This is definitely a win for the Entente and a bigger win for Italy.
Italian bases for German submarines is good. Italian bases for Zeppelins is even better. Italian bases in Eritrea wouldn't last long, but they would last long enough for the development of Zeppelin reinforcement for the troops in Tanganyika and the Camerouns, etc, to be implemented.
Lots of Italians in Argentina and America. How would that affect the politics of neutrality and blockading?
Italian bases for German submarines is good. Italian bases for Zeppelins is even better. Italian bases in Eritrea wouldn't last long, but they would last long enough for the development of Zeppelin reinforcement for the troops in Tanganyika and the Camerouns, etc, to be implemented.
Lots of Italians in Argentina and America. How would that affect the politics of neutrality and blockading?
I've always thought that if Germany had taken Paris in September, 1914, then Italy would've joined the war on the CP side just to get some land at the peace conference, just like they meant too in WWII. But if they joined in 1915, it would be a win for the Entente. They'd probably use less troops fighting Italy than they historically did defending Italy. Maybe Austria would be in better condition, but I can't see how that would affect the Western Front.
MrP
Banned
Italy had 310,000 on entering, 875,000 after mobilising, and 2,274,000 in Nov, '18. IRL their dogged and repeated offensives tied down the Austrians a lot, forced Germany to divert troops to the area themselves, and drained a lot of resources from the CP. If Austria doesn't have to worry about her Alpine frontier, she can free up a lot of troops to oppose Russia. Moreover, if France is forced to fear an Italian army in her Provence region, she has fewer troops with which to face Germany. This may well enforce either fewer offensives against the CP, or ensure that when the offensives occur and the French Army's morale is whittled down, there's someone to take advantage of it.
If the Italians managed to secure a route of supply across the Med to their Libyan forces, they could coordinate with the Ottomans in their offensive against Egypt. Perhaps.
Navally, the French Navy is superior still - especially with the addition of bits and bobs of the RN. But it can't control the movements of the CP fleets in the Eastern Med - for that the Allies will have to rely on their bases over there. This could lead to an earlier acquisition of Greek islands with Venizelos' assent. Or an angrier Constantine.
If the Italians managed to secure a route of supply across the Med to their Libyan forces, they could coordinate with the Ottomans in their offensive against Egypt. Perhaps.
Navally, the French Navy is superior still - especially with the addition of bits and bobs of the RN. But it can't control the movements of the CP fleets in the Eastern Med - for that the Allies will have to rely on their bases over there. This could lead to an earlier acquisition of Greek islands with Venizelos' assent. Or an angrier Constantine.
It also leaves useful bargaining chips for the allies with Greece and the Ottoman Empire.
Far from being capable, the Italian navy was exceptionally inept for the most part, which is perhaps not surprising given their Austrian competition.
I seem to recall an article from 1916 where it was discovered that the Italian flotilla near the mouth of the Adriatic had done little or nothing to advance training or maintainence, the argument being that the Austrians hadn't either!
Given the Dodecanese and Libya as possible offerings, plus perhaps a better offer of military and naval aid, the Ottomans have a reason to join the Allies above the way Russia is openly drooling every time the Bear sees a map.
1) The assault on the Bosphorus and Dardanelles is replaced by a massive attack involving Greece and Turkey which drives Bulgaria into surrender while saving Romania and southern Serbia.
2) The above assault without the Anzacs cripples Bulgaria and saves part of Serbia while the Commonwealth blocks the Italians in southeastern France and overruns the Italian colonies, with the Italian navy destroyed or cowering in port in the process.
Then what happens with American intervention and the Peace of Versailles where Italy's losses are greater than OTL and nothing is done to compensate?
Far from being capable, the Italian navy was exceptionally inept for the most part, which is perhaps not surprising given their Austrian competition.
I seem to recall an article from 1916 where it was discovered that the Italian flotilla near the mouth of the Adriatic had done little or nothing to advance training or maintainence, the argument being that the Austrians hadn't either!
Given the Dodecanese and Libya as possible offerings, plus perhaps a better offer of military and naval aid, the Ottomans have a reason to join the Allies above the way Russia is openly drooling every time the Bear sees a map.
1) The assault on the Bosphorus and Dardanelles is replaced by a massive attack involving Greece and Turkey which drives Bulgaria into surrender while saving Romania and southern Serbia.
2) The above assault without the Anzacs cripples Bulgaria and saves part of Serbia while the Commonwealth blocks the Italians in southeastern France and overruns the Italian colonies, with the Italian navy destroyed or cowering in port in the process.
Then what happens with American intervention and the Peace of Versailles where Italy's losses are greater than OTL and nothing is done to compensate?
Grimm Reaper said:
I assume Italy enters the war in the spring-early summer of 1915, with Turkey already on the CP side. The Italian navy was really feeble in WW1, but the army was sizable, and with some German and Austrain Alpenjaeger and Kaiserjaeger divisions would likely oivercome the French Alpine defenses. The Alpine front could become the true schwerpunkt for ending the war, not to say that with Italy on the CP's side, Spain could not resist the offer of Gibraltar, Roussillon, French Euskadi, parts of Morocco, Mauritania and Gabon...
If Italy attacked in 1914 it might have been decisive. In 1915 as in OTL it would have been less important. In 1915 they would have been attacking experienced French troops in the western Alps, as in OTL they attacked experienced Austrian troops in the eastern Alps.
They would have been draining German coal production instead of British coal production, ditto for oil, ores, oats, arms, ammunition, etc.
The ability to seal off the Med till the decisive naval encounter of 1915 would have been important if they had attacked in 1914. If they waited till 1915 it would have found a British navy that was much less overstressed as in 1914. Same for the army.
So 1914 would end the war earlier by being the last straw that broke the camel's back, on either side, while 1915 would have had much less effect.
No Dardannelles if the ANZACs are defending Egypt from Libya, no Somme if the French are sending so many divivions to the western Alps.
They would have been draining German coal production instead of British coal production, ditto for oil, ores, oats, arms, ammunition, etc.
The ability to seal off the Med till the decisive naval encounter of 1915 would have been important if they had attacked in 1914. If they waited till 1915 it would have found a British navy that was much less overstressed as in 1914. Same for the army.
So 1914 would end the war earlier by being the last straw that broke the camel's back, on either side, while 1915 would have had much less effect.
No Dardannelles if the ANZACs are defending Egypt from Libya, no Somme if the French are sending so many divivions to the western Alps.
blysas
Banned
If Italy joins in 1914,it could in the long run cause the french to be pushed over the edge, the battle of the marne was a close run thing, divert some more troops from there. It will end up, with a german victory, itmight not capture paris, but it overruns the speed bumps th french were planning to use.
Italy faces almost instant economic collapse if she joins the Central Powers due to her financial subordination to France. It is unclear if the rest of the Central Powers can rectify this. Mobilizing a meaningful Italian army would cause considerable difficulty.
Also would this worsen the Central Power's food crisis?
Also would this worsen the Central Power's food crisis?
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
fhaessig said:
How on EARTH would Italian entry on the side of the CP make a Dardanelles victory MORE likely? First of all, anyone suggesting that there even BE a Dardanelles campaign woud be immediately shot for extreme stupidity given the huge problem Italian naval power gives the Entente in the Med.
This scenario could cause the Entente to provide the Ottomans with desperation promises to enter on the Entente side (like getting Libya back).
No Goeben to Istanbul greatly reduces the chance of entry, but if the CP + Italy do well, this might draw them in.
This is very bad news for the Entente, as the addition of Italy not only opens up a new front for France but frees up a lot of Hapsburg troops for use elsewhere. Lack of a naval threat to the Ottomans would allow them to concentrate force in a decisive location rather than having to guard a huge territory against invasion from any quarter - and this would probably be against Russia.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Bulgaria would never join the war until the Ottomans had, and would only be on the same side.
The Italian fleet was not inept, it was just in a hopeless strategic situation vis a vis Austria - there are no good ports except Venice on the Adriatic coast, and none large enough to coal the entire Italian fleet, so in order to do this they would have to split up. The only alternative was to base outside the Adriatic, which surrendered the strategic initiative to Austria.
In a scenario where Austria is NOT the enemy, but rather allied, you would see a much more active Italian fleet, and with several decent Dreadnoughts, combined with Austria's and the German squadron, you have a fairly dangerous force, which France will not be able to contain by itself.
The Italian fleet was not inept, it was just in a hopeless strategic situation vis a vis Austria - there are no good ports except Venice on the Adriatic coast, and none large enough to coal the entire Italian fleet, so in order to do this they would have to split up. The only alternative was to base outside the Adriatic, which surrendered the strategic initiative to Austria.
In a scenario where Austria is NOT the enemy, but rather allied, you would see a much more active Italian fleet, and with several decent Dreadnoughts, combined with Austria's and the German squadron, you have a fairly dangerous force, which France will not be able to contain by itself.
Grimm Reaper said:
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Wozza said:
The Ottoman economy was even more subordinate to France and Britain than was Italy, plus far less developed, but did just fine economically.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
In the circumstances, giving Libya back
and the Dodecanese, would not be a bad bargain at all.
Italy would be the only source of givebacks they could use, because they can't promise Balkan territories back convincingly (or could they). Everything else would have to be from their own territory.
Would the desperation offers be enough to make the CUP think of joining the Entente?
And what PoD would make Italy do such a 180, aside from the Paris falls one which overdetermines German victory anyway?
and the Dodecanese, would not be a bad bargain at all.
Italy would be the only source of givebacks they could use, because they can't promise Balkan territories back convincingly (or could they). Everything else would have to be from their own territory.
Would the desperation offers be enough to make the CUP think of joining the Entente?
And what PoD would make Italy do such a 180, aside from the Paris falls one which overdetermines German victory anyway?
Italy joining the CP in 1914 was not so far away from reality: it would have just taken AH being more reasonable in terms of compensations on the Eastern border (as was foreseen by the alliance treaty, in case of AH gains in the Balkans); additionally, colonial gains for Italy would be much more obvious in case of Franco-British defeat. The problem was that AH did not realise this would have been a long and protracted conflict: their scenario called for a quick invasion of Serbia, which was not expected to last long. Afterwards, the only enemy would have been Russia. A "short victorious war", just what AH needed to shore up their tottering empire.
The Ottoman empire joins the CP in any case: they entered the war at the beginning of November 1914. Their interests were not in any case centered on Lybia, or even the Dodecannese. Maybe Egypt, if it comes. Certainly the Caucasus. Mostly, they wanted back Macedonia, and Salonika. Plus the traditional enemy and bugbear of the Ottomans is Russia: I would be very much surprised to find them fighting on the same side.
Bulgaria would follow the Ottoman lead: if they join the CP, the same Bulgaria does. Again, their goal is to reverse the results of the 2nd Balkan war (which happened just a year earlier, btw).
In OTL, negotiations between Italy and AH dragged on until March 1915: the truth is that AH did not really see Italy joining the Entente. A decisive move by germany (leaning upon Vienna to propose a sensible compensation) could have brought Italy on the side of the CP at the same time of the Ottomans, and the cat would be out of the bag: the Eastern mediterranean would be closed to the Entente navies, and there might be a real danger for the shipping through Suez; a 2nd front on the Alps would stretch too much France (the alpine passes were not as fortified as the Dolomites, and there is always a possibility of pushing toward Nice, menacing Marseille and Toulon; without the distractions of the italian front, Serbia could not survive the summer of 1915, and the Balkans would become a complete protectorate of the CP (Greece too would be very cautious, even more that it was in OTL: with the Ottomans, italy and Bulgaria on the side of the CP, the pro-german party - the king and the army - would be much strengthened).
Overall, I would not be surprised by a collapse of the Western front in march 1915, with the German army reaching Paris
The Ottoman empire joins the CP in any case: they entered the war at the beginning of November 1914. Their interests were not in any case centered on Lybia, or even the Dodecannese. Maybe Egypt, if it comes. Certainly the Caucasus. Mostly, they wanted back Macedonia, and Salonika. Plus the traditional enemy and bugbear of the Ottomans is Russia: I would be very much surprised to find them fighting on the same side.
Bulgaria would follow the Ottoman lead: if they join the CP, the same Bulgaria does. Again, their goal is to reverse the results of the 2nd Balkan war (which happened just a year earlier, btw).
In OTL, negotiations between Italy and AH dragged on until March 1915: the truth is that AH did not really see Italy joining the Entente. A decisive move by germany (leaning upon Vienna to propose a sensible compensation) could have brought Italy on the side of the CP at the same time of the Ottomans, and the cat would be out of the bag: the Eastern mediterranean would be closed to the Entente navies, and there might be a real danger for the shipping through Suez; a 2nd front on the Alps would stretch too much France (the alpine passes were not as fortified as the Dolomites, and there is always a possibility of pushing toward Nice, menacing Marseille and Toulon; without the distractions of the italian front, Serbia could not survive the summer of 1915, and the Balkans would become a complete protectorate of the CP (Greece too would be very cautious, even more that it was in OTL: with the Ottomans, italy and Bulgaria on the side of the CP, the pro-german party - the king and the army - would be much strengthened).
Overall, I would not be surprised by a collapse of the Western front in march 1915, with the German army reaching Paris
MrP
Banned
In naval terms it's all a bit foggy, frankly. As John pointed out, the Italians in WWI were hampered by circumstance rather than ineptitude. In terms of Dreads, though . . . well, they've got 2 operational in August, '14, 3 coming online in the first half of '15 and 1 midway through '16. Now, being engaged in war slows down Dread construction, and increases smaller construction - if the UK, France, Germany and Russia may be used as examples.
Austria had 3 (and a fourth commissioned in late '15), but these were the Tegetthofs. See here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS_Szent_István
They had some rather bad design flaws, which would probably have made them a greater liability in a battle than British loading procedures at Jutland.
I can see it now.
* Prinz Eugen succumbs to enemy torpedo attack
* Szent Istvan keels over after trying to beach herself
Admiral Horthy: There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today!
Anyway, back to numbers. First refers to vessels commissioned by or during August, '14. Number in brackets refers to ships constructed during war.
France: 4 (3) {6 Danton-class Semi-dreads are also available}
Italy: 2 (4)
A-H: 3 (1)
Random factor: Goeben will probably go to Italy or Austria if Italy declares for CP in August, '14. Otherwise, I see her still heading for C'nople.*
The likely result, in naval terms, is one of the following:
a) RN dreads sent to Med, resulting in a weaker RN presence in the North Sea.
b) Britain funding the French purchase of some ships from Brazil, Argentina &c. (Brazil has 2 - a bit wonky, and Argentina has 2 u/c in New York, IIRC.)
c) A lot more Allied pressure on the IJN to contribute ships to securing superiority in the Med.
* This has dredged up in my mind a recollection that there were proposals for the Austrian fleet to go to Stambul to reinforce Goeben. We had a thread on it a few months ago. Anyone recall? Anyway, by '16 Italy will have 6 Dreads, and so will France. So with Italy friendly (presuming the war lasts this long) Austria can trundle off to help the Ottomans defeat Russia.
Austria had 3 (and a fourth commissioned in late '15), but these were the Tegetthofs. See here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS_Szent_István
They had some rather bad design flaws, which would probably have made them a greater liability in a battle than British loading procedures at Jutland.
I can see it now.* Prinz Eugen succumbs to enemy torpedo attack
* Szent Istvan keels over after trying to beach herself
Admiral Horthy: There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today!
Anyway, back to numbers. First refers to vessels commissioned by or during August, '14. Number in brackets refers to ships constructed during war.
France: 4 (3) {6 Danton-class Semi-dreads are also available}
Italy: 2 (4)
A-H: 3 (1)
Random factor: Goeben will probably go to Italy or Austria if Italy declares for CP in August, '14. Otherwise, I see her still heading for C'nople.*
The likely result, in naval terms, is one of the following:
a) RN dreads sent to Med, resulting in a weaker RN presence in the North Sea.
b) Britain funding the French purchase of some ships from Brazil, Argentina &c. (Brazil has 2 - a bit wonky, and Argentina has 2 u/c in New York, IIRC.)
c) A lot more Allied pressure on the IJN to contribute ships to securing superiority in the Med.
* This has dredged up in my mind a recollection that there were proposals for the Austrian fleet to go to Stambul to reinforce Goeben. We had a thread on it a few months ago. Anyone recall? Anyway, by '16 Italy will have 6 Dreads, and so will France. So with Italy friendly (presuming the war lasts this long) Austria can trundle off to help the Ottomans defeat Russia.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
raharris1973 said:
I think the government would not want to join either side unless it was clear one would win. In OTL, Enver was the only minister who was totally convinced Germany would win, so he forced the government's hand by sending Souchon into the Black Sea. In this TL, Italy joining makes things look pretty bad for the Entente, so joining them for Libya and the Dodecanese probably wouldn't be worth the risk. If the Ottomans join the CP and the CP win, the potential rewards are much, much greater.