2008 with John Kerry

[JoeMulk]

Kerry was probably preparing for a second run in 2008 and only dropped out after the "botched joke" incident. If he had been in what would the result have been?

[hcallega]

He would have probably hurt Clinton if anything. I don't see him pulling away Obama voters. It's possible he gets blamed by Clinton supporters, so his mainstream legacy is hurt even more.

[TNF]

Originally Posted by JoeMulk

Kerry was probably preparing for a second run in 2008 and only dropped out after the "botched joke" incident. If he had been in what would the result have been?

In an election cycle that includes superstars like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama?

A fourth place finish. Behind Obama, behind Clinton, behind Edwards, but ahead of Richardson. Probably bows out early on and endorses Obama. The problem with Kerry is that he doesn't have much of a real constituency within the Democratic Party, while all of the other candidates of the 2008 cycle do (Clinton has the WWC/DLC types, Obama has the liberals and black voters, and Edwards has the more progressive and WWC types, along with labor). Who does Kerry get?

[RogueBeaver]

Clinton's appeal is to WWC, blacks and Hispanics, i.e. the NDC. John Kerry is not particularly appealing to any of those groups.

[RogueBeaver]

Originally Posted by The New Freedom

In an election cycle that includes superstars like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama?

A fourth place finish. Behind Obama, behind Clinton, behind Edwards, but ahead of Richardson. Probably bows out early on and endorses Obama. The problem with Kerry is that he doesn't have much of a real constituency within the Democratic Party, while all of the other candidates of the 2008 cycle do (Clinton has the WWC/DLC types, Obama has the liberals and black voters, and Edwards has the more progressive and WWC types, along with labor). Who does Kerry get?

He splits liberals with Obama. Dimes to donuts you have two politically toxic spouses: Bill Clinton and THK. Well, unless Bill is muzzled.

[TNF]

Originally Posted by RogueBeaver

He splits liberals with Obama. Dimes to donuts you have two politically toxic spouses: Bill Clinton and THK. Well, unless Bill is muzzled.

You think that the DailyKos crowd and likewise liberals are going to pass up the youthful, charismatic Obama for the stale, non-exciting Kerry?

[RogueBeaver]

Some liberals will, ones who want a more experienced candidate. Older liberals, not the under-30s who will of course flock to Obama.

[JoeMulk]

He would just be like Adlai Stevenson 2.0

[DSS]

Originally Posted by JoeMulk

He would just be like Adlai Stevenson 2.0

I wouldn't compare him to Adlai Stevenson for a few reasons:

1) Stevenson ran against Eisenhower twice. Kerry, if he was somehow nominated in 2008, would not be running against Bush a second time.
2) Stevenson lost by a landslide during his first presidential bid in 1952; Kerry only lost a narrow election that came down to a few thousand votes in Ohio in 2004.
3) If Kerry were somehow nominated in 2008, he would have defeated any Republican nominated. I'm convinced that, regardless of who the GOP ran in '08, they just couldn't win without ASB intervention.

Don't get me wrong; I see what you mean, but it's because of these three reasons that he just wouldn't be like Adlai Stevenson. But you could very easily get a Stevenson 2.0 if you had Al Gore run again in 2004; that would be the perfect example of Stevenson 2.0 if you set aside the landslide part.

[JoeMulk]

Originally Posted by DudeAlmighty

I wouldn't compare him to Adlai Stevenson for a few reasons:

1) Stevenson ran against Eisenhower twice. Kerry, if he was somehow nominated in 2008, would not be running against Bush a second time.
2) Stevenson lost by a landslide during his first presidential bid in 1952; Kerry only lost a narrow election that came down to a few thousand votes in Ohio in 2004.
3) If Kerry were somehow nominated in 2008, he would have defeated any Republican nominated. I'm convinced that, regardless of who the GOP ran in '08, they just couldn't win without ASB intervention.

Don't get me wrong; I see what you mean, but it's because of these three reasons that he just wouldn't be like Adlai Stevenson. But you could very easily get a Stevenson 2.0 if you had Al Gore run again in 2004; that would be the perfect example of Stevenson 2.0 if you set aside the landslide part.

good points actually, Yeah it was really more in terms of personality then actual electoral circumstances that my comparison was based on. I think that Gore could have beaten bush in 2004. The real Stevenson 2.0 scenario would have been in a President Colin Powell scenario where Gore runs and loses twice.

[yourworstnightmare]

Kerry lost in 2004 because he was boring. No way he'd have a chance in '08.

[DSS]

Originally Posted by JoeMulk

good points actually, Yeah it was really more in terms of personality then actual electoral circumstances that my comparison was based on. I think that Gore could have beaten bush in 2004. The real Stevenson 2.0 scenario would have been in a President Colin Powell scenario where Gore runs and loses twice.

Ah, I see. In which case, that does make sense.

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

2008 with John Kerry would be an interesting. Obama's primary vote may split between him and John. If it is the case, Obama will not win the nomination and Clinton will get it and won the presidency.

[TNF]

Originally Posted by yourworstnightmare

Kerry lost in 2004 because he was boring. No way he'd have a chance in '08.

I disagree. Despite his lack of charisma, Kerry only really lost in 2004 because the public chose to stick with Bush because he was a wartime POTUS. The fact that Kerry did so well despite a wartime POTUS being in office should raise a lot of red flags, since the public usually doesn't change horses in midstream on a war issue.

[Wildcard F. Kennedy]

Originally Posted by DudeAlmighty

3) If Kerry were somehow nominated in 2008, he would have defeated any Republican nominated. I'm convinced that, regardless of who the GOP ran in '08, they just couldn't win without ASB intervention.

What about Powell? Granted, I agree with your statement for anyone other than Powell.

[TNF]

Originally Posted by Wildcard F. Kennedy

What about Powell? Granted, I agree with your statement for anyone other than Powell.

Powell is too old and too moderate for the Republican Party of 2008.

[Wildcard F. Kennedy]

Originally Posted by The New Freedom

Powell is too old and too moderate for the Republican Party of 2008.

Too old? This is the party that ran John McCain we're talking about.

[Grimm Reaper]

Eisenhower in 1952 was far more respected and distinguished in his past record of achievement than Bush ever was which is why Kerry losing to Bush in 2004 by any margin was seen as more damning than Stevenson losing to Eisenhower in a landslide.

[TNF]

Originally Posted by Wildcard F. Kennedy

Too old? This is the party that ran John McCain we're talking about.

Point taken, but where is Powell's base of support? Conservatives don't like him for breaking with Bush on Iraq and moderates don't exist within the Republican primary electorate either.

[RogueBeaver]

Powell has never been interested in political office and is far too liberal for today's GOP.