PC: Favorable peace treaty to Argentina after war with Brazil

Petete123123

So, how plausible is that after the war with Brazil, Argentina keeps both the Banda Oriental and the Misiones Orientales?

A possible POD, would be that while the war becomes more and more unpopular in Brazil and more rebellions occurs, thus diverting forces, in Argentina, the results make the war popular and most of the provinces start contributing with the war effort, giving a breath to Buenos Aires and making the economic crisis not so important.

Also, Rivadavia sees that asking for a desfavorable peace could very well mean his death, so he avoids that option.

Any thoughts?
 

DG Valdron

You might want to post a little bit more background for people not familiar with the nuances of that particular war.

I think at this point, you've got most of the board scratching their heads.
 

Petete123123

You are right.

After Brazil annexed Uruguay in 1821, a War between Argentina and Brazil started with the expedition of the Treinta y Tres(33) Orientales to Uruguay. After this Argentina was blockaded, but any further naval actions were defeated by Guillermo Brown.
In the land, the forces of the United Provinces defeated every time the Brazilian forces. This prompted national unity and the acceptance of Uruguay as a province. But only Buenos Aires carried the war effort and being its economy one very dependant on exports, the blockade was to much for them.
Rivadavia asked for a disfavorable peace, where we lost Misiones Orientales(Half of Rio Grande do Sul and Half of Santa Catarina) and Uruguay.
But during the war, Brazil had many revolts tu put down so they even had to contract German mercenaries, which we defeated too.
 

Gonzaga

Petete123123 said:
So, how plausible is that after the war with Brazil, Argentina keeps both the Banda Oriental and the Misiones Orientales?

A possible POD, would be that while the war becomes more and more unpopular in Brazil and more rebellions occurs, thus diverting forces, in Argentina, the results make the war popular and most of the provinces start contributing with the war effort, giving a breath to Buenos Aires and making the economic crisis not so important.

Also, Rivadavia sees that asking for a desfavorable peace could very well mean his death, so he avoids that option.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

Well, IOTL the Brazilian army was in a terrible shape during the war of 1825-1828. It could have gone worse if more mercenaries don't receive their payments (there was already a rebellion in the end of the war, the Irish and German Mercenary Soldiers' Revolt). But after the Confederation of Equador in 1824 I can't see other provincial rebellion while Pedro I is Emperor. IOTL they happened after his abdication due to the political upheaval caused by it. So maybe you should get rid of him. He was actually going to Uruguay in the end of 1826 to command personally the Brazilian forces against the Argentines when he received the news that his wife died in Rio and so went back to court. Have her survive and make him being killed in the war and then you would have the kind of situation where the Brazilian government would be more likely to accept the union of the Banda Oriental to the United Provinces.

Also, other factor that contributed to the stalemate in the negotiations was the fact that while the Argentines could defeat the Brazilian forces on land their navy wasn't strong enough to expell the naval force that made the blockade against Buenos Aires. This, allied to the fact that the British weren't interested in a single power controlling the commerce of the Plata basin was one of the reasons why in the peace both sides agreed on the creation of Uruguay. So probably you should find a way to make the early Argentine Navy defeat the Brazilian ships and liberate Buenos Aires from the blockade.
 

Petete123123

Gonzaga said:
Well, IOTL the Brazilian army was in a terrible shape during the war of 1825-1828. It could have gone worse if more mercenaries don't receive their payments (there was already a rebellion in the end of the war, the Irish and German Mercenary Soldiers' Revolt). But after the Confederation of Equador in 1824 I can't see other provincial rebellion while Pedro I is Emperor. IOTL they happened after his abdication due to the political upheaval caused by it. So maybe you should get rid of him. He was actually going to Uruguay in the end of 1826 to command personally the Brazilian forces against the Argentines when he received the news that his wife died in Rio and so went back to court. Have her survive and make him being killed in the war and then you would have the kind of situation where the Brazilian government would be more likely to accept the union of the Banda Oriental to the United Provinces.

Also, other factor that contributed to the stalemate in the negotiations was the fact that while the Argentines could defeat the Brazilian forces on land their navy wasn't strong enough to expell the naval force that made the blockade against Buenos Aires. This, allied to the fact that the British weren't interested in a single power controlling the commerce of the Plata basin was one of the reasons why in the peace both sides agreed on the creation of Uruguay. So probably you should find a way to make the early Argentine Navy defeat the Brazilian ships and liberate Buenos Aires from the blockade.
Click to expand...

Well, then how can we prevent Brazil from having a powerful navy or at least one more powerful than the Argentinean one?
 

Gonzaga

Petete123123 said:
Well, then how can we prevent Brazil from having a powerful navy or at least one more powerful than the Argentinean one?
Click to expand...

You would need to go back to independence and the war against Portugal, but then you probably would have changed things too much that the war over the Banda Oriental/Cisplatina would be the same as IOTL.
 

Petete123123

Gonzaga said:
You would need to go back to independence and the war against Portugal, but then you probably would have changed things too much that the war over the Banda Oriental/Cisplatina would be the same as IOTL.
Click to expand...

Then would it be plausible that Robert Fulton decides to come to live to Argentina, and he gives his design of a submarine to the government, which after Brown likes it, decides to build it?
Let's say that he had problems in the USA and William White invited him.
But well, it could be very implausible.
 
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