my first AHC: an Italian Empire in South-East Asia

[RyuDrago]

Just few days ago I read in a history magazine about the life of an Italian adventurer, Celso Cesare Moreno, who in half 19th married the daughter of the Rajah of Atjeh and become the first minister of that country; so, in 1865 he went to Florence trying to convince the Italian government to proclaiming a protectorate on Atjeh, but in the end he failed.

While if instead the Italians accepted to protect Atjeh? From this POD i want you to build a possible TL where Italy managed to build from SE Asia to the Pacific ( because historically later Moreno went to Hawaii and become a friend of the last king of the archipelago, but soon the Americans succeded to isolate him; so WI the adventurer instead managed to maintain his influence here?) a possible colonial empire.

The limits i put are:

- No arihistorical gains in Africa except for Etiophia if the Italians succeded to take the country with the valuable help of colonial forces from SE Asia;
- No wars with Japan, no gains of Taiwan and Korea, yes to establish concessions in China;
- Italy could expand in other Asian regions where UK didn't yet establish its complete influence (for example, switch of protectorates outside India is allowed)
- in WWI Italy must fight with Entente, arihistorical but reasonable gains are permitted with the valuable help of colonial forces from SE Asia, after the war you can choose an arihistorical path for Italy (no fascism, or WWII with allies or what else) because i wish to see a decolonization process for the region before 1960;
if you try to follow this path the war with Japan in WWII alternate scenary then is allowed. However also the loss of the colonies in a historical Italian defeat in WWII is allowed.

Hope you have fun!

[LordKalvan]

I believe one may start with Nino Bixio, second-in-command when Garibaldi went to the conquest of the kingdom of Naples.
After the occupation of Rome in 1870, Bixio travelled to the Far East, leading a commercial expedition ostensibly chartered by Rubattino Shipping Co. of Genoa. However, it's no secret that Rubattino was the cat's paw of the Italian government: in 1860 they supplied Garibaldi with two steamships and in 1867 the same Rubattino acquired from the Egyptians the rights to establish a coaling station in the bay of Assab, in Erythrea (which was the start of the Italian colony of Erythrea). Connecting it with the trip of Celso Moreno to Florence, it would not be hard to paint the picture: Nino Bixio has been despatched to Sumatra by the government to check the situation with his own eyes and at the same time maintaning deniability. Bixio was a classic adventurer of the 19th century: very patrioctic, courageous to a fault, impulsive. Not a bad choice for the job. Unfortunately IOTL fate was not with him:
"On 16 December 1873, he died of cholera at Aceh Bay in Sumatra en route for Batavia (modern day Jakarta), where he was slated to take command of a commercial expedition"
as Wikipedia informs us.

After that I've no information of further Italian involvment in the region; however the sultanate of Aceh rebelled in 1873 against the encroachment of the Dutch and the ensuing war lasted until 1903.

Since I don't believe very much in coincidences, I have really to believe that Nino Bixio had a plan of a sort. A POD avoiding the death by cholera should not be too hard to envisage: Bixio - who had accumulated quite a military experience during the wars of Italian unification - might be at least a very good advisor for the sultan of Aceh (matter of fact, Bixio would not be the guy who looks for an advisory position: he would lead from the front) and Italy might supply guns and military advisors. The Suez canal has been in service since 1867, and Rubattino has already acquired the coaling station at Assab. I'm not too sure what France and UK would do: possibly nothing, since neither has rights/interest on Sumatra.

Is it a start?

As an afterthought: I can understand most of your rules of engagement, but why Taiwan has to be a no-no? If Italy gets a serious foothold in Aceh by the end of 1870s I would think that they would also start serious trade with China, and they might even be co-belligerent with France in the war of 1883 (IMHO, a more or less successful penetration in Far East would change also the diplomatic situation and be an incentive to good relationships with France and UK) and be at the treaty of Tientsin in 1885. IIRC (but must be a factoid picked up somewhere) France wanted Taiwan, and UK was opposing it. Maybe if Taiwan wento into the sphere of influence of a third nation, the British might be less opposed (as they were not opposed to Japan getting it in 1895).

Second afterthought: if Italy gets something good in Far East, there is much less pressure to get into Ethiopia: there would possibly be an economic penetration (and certainly Erythrea would be necessary to safeguard the Far East trade) but no invasion.

[RyuDrago]

A surviving Nino Bixio is a excellent choice, i like it ;

I said "no Taiwan" because i included the island in Japan's sphere and i wish to see a more possible historical and stronger Rising Sun in the area; anyway i can suggest a compromise: until the end of WWI Taiwan must be under historical japanese rule, but after 1918 you could try to develop a TL where Italy tries to take the island (maybe in the sino-japanese war context or anyway you want)

[lukedalton]

Maybe with the protectorate of Aceh Italy will be tempted to scrap some money and try to buy the remnat of the Spanish empire after the Spanish-american war

[Geekhis Khan]

Sounds interesting to me. Unique POD and idea. Please go on. And welcome to the boards!

[Alex Richards]

Originally Posted by lukedalton

Maybe with the protectorate of Aceh Italy will be tempted to scrap some money and try to buy the remnat of the Spanish empire after the Spanish-american war

I doubt it. What's left of Spain is some bits of Morocco and Equatorial Guinea, which are on the other side of Africa from the bits Italy is interested in.

I imagine that Libya or Tunisia will probably remain/go Italian here for much the same reasons as they did/nearly did.

[HJ Tulp]

I don't see Atjeh as Italys way into Asia personally. Atjeh is going to be noones slave without a fight and Italy would be without the history, the infrastructure and without the manpower the Dutch had.

[lukedalton]

Originally Posted by Alex Richards

I doubt it. What's left of Spain is some bits of Morocco and Equatorial Guinea, which are on the other side of Africa from the bits Italy is interested in.

I imagine that Libya or Tunisia will probably remain/go Italian here for much the same reasons as they did/nearly did.

No, in OTL they sold to Germany in 1899 their remaining possession in the Pacific, just some island but with a protectorate in Aceh maybe Italy and not Germany buy it

[Alex Richards]

Originally Posted by lukedalton

No, in OTL they sold to Germany in 1899 their remaining possession in the Pacific, just some island but with a protectorate in Aceh maybe Italy and not Germany buy it

Ah, you mean Micronesia and the other bits which went Japanese then American. That's a possibility, though if they only have Aceh it's still rather out the way.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by HJ Tulp

I don't see Atjeh as Italys way into Asia personally. Atjeh is going to be noones slave without a fight and Italy would be without the history, the infrastructure and without the manpower the Dutch had.

I was not suggesting an occupation of Aceh, but rather an economic penetration. Then if the war with the Dutch goes the other way around (which might happen) the rest of Sumatra might be up for grab

I'm looking at Aceh as a friendly base for Italian commerce in China, as well as as a door for penetration in Sumatra. The Dutch will not be happy for sure, but....

As I mentioned in my other post, the key to success would be friendly relations with UK and France (IOTL Italy was pretty isolated in the 1870s). If these friendly relations can be managed (and the incentive would be also the successful trade in Far East), there is a very nice window of opportunity provided by the Sino-French war of 1883-85 (the French were looking for support from other European nations, but in the end they had to log it on their own), which could be a way to secure concessions in China.

[RyuDrago]

Moreno claimed the Rajah of Aceh as only ruler of Sumatra and in 1865 he requested only two warships to protect the country, so Italy in that period could possibly handle a protectorate over that country with a small effort; meanwhile with the possession on Aceh soon or later it could claim all Sumatra, and meanwhile tried to contend to Netherlands islands not yet in control of Dutch East Indies.

I think it's highly improbable for Italy taking all the East Indies by alone, but only Sumatra maybe...

As for Spanish possessions: maybe it can be developed a cooperation between Italy and USA in the Cuban war to divide the remnants of Spain's colonial empire; i also want to mention that Moreno historically spent most time in America, we was pratically a lobbist and despite the US ingerence into his affairs in Hawaii had swinging but general fairly good realtionships with Washington politicians ( but at some point he also finished in jail); if he become the Italian ambassador at some point maybe could reach an agreement for a division of the Pacific between Italy and USA... perhaps a Italian Philippines?

[LordKalvan]

Moreno had a bit of a checkered career, but overall he was not unsuccessful (besides his little jaunt in Aceh, he was quite a player in Hawai and he got elected to the house of Representatives in USA). I believe that he might be a good resident in Aceh for the Italian government and play the diplomatic game, while Bixio goes in search of glory and adventures on the field.

The question is if the Italian government plays its part in the show: Italian diplomacy was not at its greatest in the last decades of 19th century, and as a result Italy was most isolated, did not get anything at the Congress of Berlin, had very bad relations with France (which was certainly at fault too) and ended up in an unpopular and unproductive alliance with Germany and Austria (ok, it was a reaction to the isolation in Berlin and the Tunisian snuff by France, but still it was not a smart move, not just internationally but also internally). This said, I believe that sending a few navy units to Aceh and show the flag might be feasible (I'd say at least an ironclad and some lesser ships) provided that UK and France are handled with care. One idea might be showing support for British policy when the Russians come down into Bulgaria: frankly Russian-dominated Balkans are not in the interest of Italy, and therefore sending a few naval units to Costantinople when the British do would be both cheap and proactive. Same thing for the Sudanese troubles: IOTL the British were in a favor of an Italian intervention to support them. This exercise would have been somehow more expensive, but also much more likely to bring some good will.

It's quite obvious that most (if not all) the diplomatic troubles are the outcome of weak governments and a general indecisiveness which ultimate cost was paid in the ill-fated Ethiopian adventure in the 1890s. What I'm betting on is that the Aceh's gambit pays some dividends in terms both of national pride and commercial deals before the bill gets too high. If the Italian policy in Aceh is somehow successful, then most of the diplomatic moves become more or less automatic.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by RyuDrago

Moreno claimed the Rajah of Aceh as only ruler of Sumatra and in 1865 he requested only two warships to protect the country, so Italy in that period could possibly handle a protectorate over that country with a small effort; meanwhile with the possession on Aceh soon or later it could claim all Sumatra, and meanwhile tried to contend to Netherlands islands not yet in control of Dutch East Indies.

I think it's highly improbable for Italy taking all the East Indies by alone, but only Sumatra maybe...

As for Spanish possessions: maybe it can be developed a cooperation between Italy and USA in the Cuban war to divide the remnants of Spain's colonial empire; i also want to mention that Moreno historically spent most time in America, we was pratically a lobbist and despite the US ingerence into his affairs in Hawaii had swinging but general fairly good realtionships with Washington politicians ( but at some point he also finished in jail); if he become the Italian ambassador at some point maybe could reach an agreement for a division of the Pacific between Italy and USA... perhaps a Italian Philippines?

God avert!!

Sumatra would generate revenues, the concessions in Southern China and/or Taiwan would be instrumental to build up the China trade.

The Philippines are likely to be a bleeding hole, requiring a lot of soldiers to keep them pacified and draining capitals for infrastructures (which is what happened to the USA, btw). The only reason to chase them would be for national pride and international status, and might become worth of consideration (but possibly not really reasonable) only if by mid 1890s Italy has somehow overcome a lot of difficulties and is an established player in the China game.

[RyuDrago]

The main problem i think it's about how fix the Italy-USA relationship, because it seems they could have the same goals in the rush to SE Asia, Pacific, and China: if i remember well, historically it was USA who convinced China to not give Italy a concession before the Boxers revolt.

meanwhile, i want to put the Siam question: could be a valuable allied for Italy, a new colony or what else?

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by RyuDrago

The main problem i think it's about how fix the Italy-USA relationship, because it seems they could have the same goals in the rush to SE Asia, Pacific, and China: if i remember well, historically it was USA who convinced China to not give Italy a concession before the Boxers revolt.

meanwhile, i want to put the Siam question: could be a valuable allied for Italy, a new colony or what else?

The main problem is keeping both France and UK friendly (or at least not overtly hostile) to the Italian presence in the Far East. In the 1870s the USA is still in the Reconstruction period, and its focus is certainly not on the Far East. The problems for Italian penetration in China were in 1897, when Italy tried to obtain a concession in China as the other major European powers did after the war between China and Japan. Considering that Italy was still reeling from the consequences of the disaster at Adua, its usual diplomatic isolation and the growing social tensions at home, it is not surprising that Italy did not get what they asked. I'm not aware of a specific opposition by the USA, other than their usual policy of "open doors". Not to mention that the attention of the USA is mostly centered on Cuba at this time.

Anyway that was OTL. In TTL one can hope that an early start would result in a more successful commercial penetration and that the availability of friendly ports in Aceh would result in a larger naval presence. If you remember, I made the hypothesis that Italy might benefit from a participation in the Tonkin war of 1883-85 to gain some concessions on the mainland and/or Formosa: again I am not aware of any USA interference in the war (rather the British were not so happy of having the French in Formosa). So I believe that with a proper diplomatic preparation and with adequate forces in the field this is a window of opportunity.

Re. Thailand (or better Siam, as the country was named until 1939), I would guess that the idea of establishing a protectorate might be a bit too wild. Siam managed (mostly by diplomatic skills) to avoid being sucked in the sphere of influence of either UK or France, and I would assume that the same would hold ITTL too. By all means, a diplomatic presence and commerce would be quite a good thing. No more than that, though.

[RyuDrago]

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

Re. Thailand (or better Siam, as the country was named until 1939), I would guess that the idea of establishing a protectorate might be a bit too wild. Siam managed (mostly by diplomatic skills) to avoid being sucked in the sphere of influence of either UK or France, and I would assume that the same would hold ITTL too. By all means, a diplomatic presence and commerce would be quite a good thing. No more than that, though.

And an alliance to divide French Indochina (Laos and Cambodia to Siam, Vietnam to Italy)?

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Originally Posted by RyuDrago

And an alliance to divide French Indochina (Laos and Cambodia to Siam, Vietnam to Italy)?

The Mekong River is pretty valuable for the Indochinese trade however. I think the Italians would want to keep some of Camobodia.

[RyuDrago]

Originally Posted by Emperor-of-New-Zealand

The Mekong River is pretty valuable for the Indochinese trade however. I think the Italians would want to keep some of Camobodia.

And some time later Italian archeologists discovered Angkor.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by RyuDrago

And an alliance to divide French Indochina (Laos and Cambodia to Siam, Vietnam to Italy)?

Theoretically it is a possibility.
However my basic idea was an Italo-French alliance in the Tonkin war, and to get there Italy cannot antagonise France (which means a complete different spin to the Italo-French relations in the 1870s, which were pretty poor and antagonistics.) Obviously Italy could not confront France on an one-to-one basis, not to mention the French investments in Italy, the Italian immigration to France as well as the associated anti-Italian riots, the fact that France was the 1st commercial partner of Italy). The outcome of this myopic policy is well know: Italian diplomatic isolation, the complete snub at the Berlin Congress, France occupying Tunisia etc.
Since we know that OTL policy was a failure (both tactically and strategically) it makes sense that something different should be attempted ITTL: hence my focus on "paying colonies" and on China trade, and a diplomatic approach which is not only imperialistic (a strong imperialistic flavor is unavoidable, since this is the Jingoist era), but borrows some overtones from American "open door" policy.

Your suggestion (a partition of French Indochine between Thailand and Italy) would be possible in one scenario only: Italy performing much better in the 1866 war against Austria. This is not ASBish at all: as a matter of fact, the true ASBish scenario is what happened IOTL
I discussed this scenario with Eurofed ina TL named "A different 1866" or something very similar. The outcome of a convincing Italian performance in 1866 is not just a much better peace treaty, but also a much more confident Italy and a strategic alliance with Prussia, which results in a joint war against France sometime between 1867 and 1870. France obviously comes out very badly of this war, and looses substantial territories, both on the mainland and in the colonies. IIRC, Indochine was partitioned between Italy and Germany;
this is not set in stone, however, and it might also go otherwise.
Thailand might possibly be involved in TTL Tonkin-war equivalent (Northern Vietnam and IIRC Laos are under Chinese suzerainety at this time).
However with a post-1870 POD, I don't really see alternatives to better (much better) relations with France.

[RyuDrago]

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

Theoretically it is a possibility.
However my basic idea was an Italo-French alliance in the Tonkin war, and to get there Italy cannot antagonise France (which means a complete different spin to the Italo-French relations in the 1870s, which were pretty poor and antagonistics.) Obviously Italy could not confront France on an one-to-one basis, not to mention the French investments in Italy, the Italian immigration to France as well as the associated anti-Italian riots, the fact that France was the 1st commercial partner of Italy). The outcome of this myopic policy is well know: Italian diplomatic isolation, the complete snub at the Berlin Congress, France occupying Tunisia etc.
Since we know that OTL policy was a failure (both tactically and strategically) it makes sense that something different should be attempted ITTL: hence my focus on "paying colonies" and on China trade, and a diplomatic approach which is not only imperialistic (a strong imperialistic flavor is unavoidable, since this is the Jingoist era), but borrows some overtones from American "open door" policy.

Your suggestion (a partition of French Indochine between Thailand and Italy) would be possible in one scenario only: Italy performing much better in the 1866 war against Austria. This is not ASBish at all: as a matter of fact, the true ASBish scenario is what happened IOTL
I discussed this scenario with Eurofed ina TL named "A different 1866" or something very similar. The outcome of a convincing Italian performance in 1866 is not just a much better peace treaty, but also a much more confident Italy and a strategic alliance with Prussia, which results in a joint war against France sometime between 1867 and 1870. France obviously comes out very badly of this war, and looses substantial territories, both on the mainland and in the colonies. IIRC, Indochine was partitioned between Italy and Germany;
this is not set in stone, however, and it might also go otherwise.
Thailand might possibly be involved in TTL Tonkin-war equivalent (Northern Vietnam and IIRC Laos are under Chinese suzerainety at this time).
However with a post-1870 POD, I don't really see alternatives to better (much better) relations with France.

Or maybe Italy decided to renew the alliance with Prussia, and later with Germany. An Italo-Germany alliance could give the possibility to pressure Netherlands to give up the control of Sumatra also in a war prospective (Germany invaded Holland and take some part of it, while Italy invaded Sumatra from Ajeh)

About the possibility of a better third war of indipendence: the POD here is 1865, so there in a year i can only think Italy at least tried to improve his navy as possible in a prospective of Asian expansion, and with a more accuracy from Persano (but previously we talked about a survived Bixio: why not put him in charge of the fleet?) at least Italians won at Lissa and take in a better peace deal Trieste (but no Trento and Dalmazia). However Trieste could give a boost to the naval Italian expansion.

Meanwhile now i suggest a development of the Rubattino company: the access to the East Indies could give better trades to its convoys... And just in 1869 Rubattino could sell in a more favorable prospective Assab to Italy.