Trent Affair War
- Thread starter Jude815
- Start date
Jude815
You would need to give an explanation for how as that would affect the outcome. Given it's a very low probability event as most of the Americans on the board would admit, you would definitely need to explain how.
This presumes that by comes out on top the US manages to avoid a serious defeat and gain land itself, which I suspect is what you mean?
Steve
I presume this is in the same universe where Iraq destroyed the invading US army and went on to overrun Kuwait and Iran. Frankly the two things are about as likely...
There's a good timeline out there somewhere about the Trent Affair war (things don't look good for America though)... it just hasn't been updated recently.
Edit: My search is broken, couldn't find the TL, my bad.
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You're overstating the improbability here. It's roughly as likely as Switzerland becoming European hegemon.
usertron2020
Donor
AGAIN!? THIS STORY IS OUT AGAIN!? NO, NO, NO! Just please close this thread and put it in ASB where it belongs. Then you can do a Union version of "The Other Empire Strikes Back".
How about a very short war - something in which the US manages to somehow get the jump on Britain (winning a couple of the opening battles), both sides come to their senses, and war ends with minor concessions and a reaffirmation of the rights of neutrals, even in cases of suppressing rebellion.
Hardly. Oh, I still agree it is improbable, but if the royal navy suffered a Kamikaze like hurricane while in the GoM and sunk, the odds would be much evened
Why do people here seem to think that things are inevitable and always going to happen. It is kind of ironic that considering what this website is about.
A bunch of upstart Colonists defeated the world's most powererful Military power. Then forced it into a stalemate in a later war. Now it has become the World's first true hegemon. The Greeks defeated, what was at the time, the World's Largest Empire, twice. Then later went on to conquer the entire Persian Empire. A tiny city founded by exiles or two brothers (depending on who you listen to) went on to make the Mediterranean Sea their private lake. A bunch of Nomads brought numerous Germanic Tribes and the Roman Empire to their knees. Another bunch of other nomads conquered the world's most advanced and powerful Nation at the time (China) along with the Perisan Empire and the rest of Eurasia.
So don't tell me with a straight face that the US had no chance to win a Trent Affair War. In all liklihood, The US will lose. Is it a sure thing? No.
A bunch of upstart Colonists defeated the world's most powererful Military power. Then forced it into a stalemate in a later war. Now it has become the World's first true hegemon. The Greeks defeated, what was at the time, the World's Largest Empire, twice. Then later went on to conquer the entire Persian Empire. A tiny city founded by exiles or two brothers (depending on who you listen to) went on to make the Mediterranean Sea their private lake. A bunch of Nomads brought numerous Germanic Tribes and the Roman Empire to their knees. Another bunch of other nomads conquered the world's most advanced and powerful Nation at the time (China) along with the Perisan Empire and the rest of Eurasia.
So don't tell me with a straight face that the US had no chance to win a Trent Affair War. In all liklihood, The US will lose. Is it a sure thing? No.
If we just treat anything happening no matter how likely or unlikely equally then much of this forum is just utterly useless. Discussions would just boil down to 'Oh, and wouldn't it be cool if the French installed a monkey as king of Siam?' 'Yeah! Then like...It could conquer China!' 'Woo! Then maybe the monkey China empire can colonise Russia!'
The point of AH is to discuss realistic alternatives. Not just any old random thing we can think of.
The US did have no chance of winning the Trent War short of major ASBs like the Royal Navy all deciding to defect to the US or some sort of weird steel eating bacteria to infect Britain.
On the first bolded area: There is a difference between say 5-3% and .000000001%. The latter I am fine with people saying it will never happen. The Former, I am not fine with.
Now, a blockade is normally something that really hurts your Economy. However, it doesn't cripple it. Look at the CSA, Imperial Germany, and other scores of nations. People say that the US wouldn't be able to fight a war without Gunpowder (due to the British possessing the single major source for a critical ingredient of it). Well, as far as I know the CSA did just fine, and they also had to deal with a blockade.
On the senond bolded part: You may call them ASB's, I call them luck. Don't say that Britain's Military can't act stupid after the Battle of New Orleans, where Andrew Jackson took 4,000 Militia and gave a highly experienced and highly trained British force of 8,000+ an absolute thrashing. The lesson is that sides with superiority tend to act with arrogance and stupidity, and in many cases, this is their downfall, to forces they on paper should crush. Have this happen enough (for Britain that is), and you can very well have the US and Britain come to a White Peace and have the US then conquer the CSA.
Basically, to understand my way of thinking, play rock-paper-scissors with a friend. Make a game where you have a go at it 6 times. If you win once, you win overall. If you never beat him once, he wins overall. The majority of the time, you will win. However, every once in a while, he will win.
That is my thinking of the liklihood of Britain winning in the Trent War.
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I read 1862 by Robert Conroy which involved Britain entering the war over the Trent Affair.
Even though I'm not really very adept at identifying exemplary alternate history, I didn't think it was very good. An entertaining story, maybe, but not a good alternate history.
Even though I'm not really very adept at identifying exemplary alternate history, I didn't think it was very good. An entertaining story, maybe, but not a good alternate history.
CurlyGangster, British intervention means economic and financial ruin for the Union, the collapse of the blockade and the Confederacy being able to acquire everything it needs for the CSA's armies while the Union rapidly runs short. That's without the British landing a single soldier in North America.
Ergo there is NO possibility of the US winning the war.
Also the CSA managed to keep the war going by smuggling everything they could from nearby British colonies. The US at war with Great Britain will not have this option.
Ergo there is NO possibility of the US winning the war.
Also the CSA managed to keep the war going by smuggling everything they could from nearby British colonies. The US at war with Great Britain will not have this option.
Basically, having the Trent Affair is putting the Union against the Confederacy (without economic strangulation) Great Britain, the world's largest and power powerful nation of the era, and France, the second most powerful nation (Nappy III would most certainly have jumped in with Great Britain).
The Union would be invaded, beaten, and humiliated, far worse than Russia was in the Crimean War.
It is completely and utterly ASB for the Union to win against the British, French, and Confederates at the same time.
The Union would be invaded, beaten, and humiliated, far worse than Russia was in the Crimean War.
It is completely and utterly ASB for the Union to win against the British, French, and Confederates at the same time.