WI Paraguay win the War of the Triple Alliance

Between 1864 and 1870 Paraguay fight in the War of the Triple Alliance against Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina. The war starts, when Brazil got involved in Uruguay's politics. Paraguay was threatened of the balance of power, so they declared war against Brazil and so also Uruguay. Argentina get involved as they accept access for Brazil, but not for Paraguay.
In the rest of war Paraguay and their industry, which was before the war the best in the region, get totally destroyed. Paraguay lost more than half of their population and and half of their land, Paraguay was destroyed as power.
In this thread I want to show possibilities, if they win the war, but we don't talk about how they win it. I will start with least realistic and then get more and more realistic, it could be also that all my theories are completely wrong.
This is the first time I do something like that !

Clonefusion
Clonefusion
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In this scenario Paraguay wins very dominant, please don't ask me how. Argentina needs to give Paraguay all of his Chaco area, needs to release Corrientes and Entre Rios as a own state, which will become vassals of Paraguay, also Patagonia will become a one state. Uruguay will become ruled by the Blanco Party and a ally of Paraguay. Brazil will release Acre as a own state, also the Juliana Republic and the Riograndense Republic will be created, both will become vassals of Paraguay. So after this war Paraguay would become a big power in America, Argentina would lose this status and Brazil would lost their hegemony over South America.

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The second scenario is very similar, the Change is that Chile enters the war and get Patagonia, Bolivia enters the war and gets a province of Argentina, it can be discussed, if they also get Acre. Venezuela would also enter the war and gain Roraima and France gets Amapa. The changes of Balance of Power in this scenario to the one before would be that Chile become a big power in America.

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The third scenario is also similar to the first, Paraguay would win very dominant, the only change is that Patagonia and Acre would not become independent, because Brazil and Argentina would not full enough of Revolts. So Argentina would stay as a big power.

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In the fourth scenario Paraguay would win, because the Riograndense would become independent in the war, Brazil would accept this as peace, because Paraguay want to lose his bad landlocked position, Corrientes and Entre Rios would become independent as a own state, but will become vassal states of Paraguay. Uruguay will become ruled by the Blanco Party and an ally of Paraguay. In this scenario Paraguay will become a big power and a Balance of Power would exist more than in other scenarios, where Paraguay would become very powerful and could not be destroyed because of his "allies" !

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In the last scenario the war would end vey fast, all accept a early peace. Because Paraguay does not lose against a big alliance of Nations, they would be honored all over the world, so much people will move to Paraguay. So the alliance lost and in the next war, Paraguay will be again more powerful.

I hope, one possibility could be right and I will be happy about every comment ! :)
Clonefusion
 

maverick

Banned
Riograndese Separatism is mostly dead by the 1860s, and setting up the Republic Juliana and Rio Grande as Vassal States would require the presence of the Paraguayan Army to keep it going. Entre Rios and Corrientes as an Independent Republic is a little more plausible. No Separatist projects existed there, but some collaborators could be found, I guess.

Patagonia being independent is weird, but everyone joining the war as if a web of alliance ala Europe in 1914. Chile and Peru are busy with the Hispano-South American war of 1865-1866, as is Peru, and I'm not sure about Bolivia's intentions towards Argentina or Paraguay.

France and Venezuela could not interfere in Brazil: the first due to being busy in Mexico and the later due to there being a big-ass jungle and mountains in the middle.

I'm making a TL concerning the last scenario and a swift victory, but it still involves a Triple-Alliance fighting Paraguay.
 
I love these topics, Paraguay is not discussed nearly often enough. So thanks. Anyhow, I think a quick end is the most likely if Paraguay is to win, but if Lopez is smarter and they get luckier pull off a victory against the entire Alliance at Tuyuti, they will be in a great position as well. However, by Tuyuti they have already suffered many losses, but not enough to hurt them badly as it was after the battle. And if they win at Tuyuti they have captured some of Brazil's best generals, and the presidents of Argentina and Uruguay. The last two nations would automatically be out of the war most likely, and Brazil will be hurt, having lost their most experienced troops and officers, and might seek peace as well eventually. The only other good battle PoD might be a Paraguayan victory at Riachuelo, but I am not so sure about what happens afterwards.

In any case, as you said, after such a victory against two of the most powerful nations in South America, Paraguay gets a major prestige boost on the world stage, and many people will start immigrating there as Lopez continues on the path of industrialization Paraguay began before the war. Not sure what happens afterwards, but given the ambition of Lopez, they might become quite an important country, and the powerhouse of South America. But I'm no expert.

EDIT: Hey Maverick, wasn't Bolivia quite friendly with Paraguay back then? Maybe they could help a bit. But yeah, I think an early win would be best, better than Tuyuti for sure.
 
Well. I have one interesting fact for you.

During the war, most of what was the Confederation(Argentina of that time - Buenos Airess) was against the war. Particulary Entre Rios. Some of Corrientes was against too.

So if we can have the leaders of this provinces to cooperate with Paraguay against Buenos Aires(because the provinces hate Buenos Aires while they didn't hate Paraguay). Maybe they could unite after the war. Brazil isn't a very hard nut to crack. The only Paraguays need is a good militar leader and they could very well win against Brazil and help the Blancos(and thus gain the possibility of using Montevideo as a port).
 
EDIT: Hey Maverick, wasn't Bolivia quite friendly with Paraguay back then? Maybe they could help a bit. But yeah, I think an early win would be best, better than Tuyuti for sure.

Yes, the Bolivians were friendly to Paraguay, and they even threatened to send an expeditionary force to help Lopez agains the Alliance. But it made Brazil send a diplomatic mission to the Andean countries in order to keep their neutrality, and in Bolivia it was so successful that we actually got a treaty from them that recognized as Brazilian a great part of a territorie that goes from Mato Grosso to Amazonas. Of course, their president was Mariano Melgarejo, so you couldn't really expect anything much sane coming out from the Bolivian government. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariano_Melgarejo
 
Thank you for the comments, I will now show my opinion to them !

Riograndese Separatism is mostly dead by the 1860s, and setting up the Republic Juliana and Rio Grande as Vassal States would require the presence of the Paraguayan Army to keep it going.
Ok, it can be that the separatism is mostly dead, but this can be pushed up again and with vassal states I mean, they have access to the sea over their country, it doesn't mean puppet state, this country is ally of Paraguay.
I think, that is a problem that they are too small, yes I think they would become one.
Patagonia being independent is weird, but everyone joining the war as if a web of alliance ala Europe in 1914. Chile and Peru are busy with the Hispano-South American war of 1865-1866, as is Peru, and I'm not sure about Bolivia's intentions towards Argentina or Paraguay.
To Patagonia independent I only show you that : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Araucania_and_Patagonia
To Chile how named the war was only until 1866, and if Paraguay want so much the war would take much longer, so Chile could join later, because they see how Paraguay wins. Because of Bolivia at this time they were allies and I think it is possible they join at the beginning, so they would join at the beginning and gain more land.
France and Venezuela could not interfere in Brazil: the first due to being busy in Mexico and the later due to there being a big-ass jungle and mountains in the middle.
Venezuela has a big joungle, but if Brazil is busy with Bolivia and Paraguay, they can attack in Jungle. France would get Amapa, because all want to hurt Brazil and this present will bring France in their hands.

So her now first of countries interests in South America, yes it is from Wikipedia, sorry !
SouthAmerica1865_ChinchaIslandsWar.png


Bolivia is interested in Acre and small parts of Argentinia, Chile in Patagonia, Columbia is also interested in Brazil land

So here now a hopefully better version of Scenario 2 :
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Bolivia gets also Acre, a part of Chaco given to Paraguay in first Version of Scenario 1 and also a part of Salta, Riograndense and Juliana Republic are one, this I will change for all maps after more discussion. Columbia join the war and and get their claims shown in the other map, so Venezuela get one province less. If Chile would not join the war, Patagonia become independent and Acre if Bolivia does not join. With this changes Bolivia would become big power too.

Now my first comment, now you can tramp on me again :D !

Edit : Something I forget is giving Venezuela all of Roraima, so one province more, I change it in my next comment !
 
Thank you for the comments, I will now show my opinion to them !

Ok, it can be that the separatism is mostly dead, but this can be pushed up again and with vassal states I mean, they have access to the sea over their country, it doesn't mean puppet state, this country is ally of Paraguay.
I think, that is a problem that they are too small, yes I think they would become one.

The whole economy of Rio Grande do Sul was based on the exportation of meat and leather to other Brazilian provinces, while Paraguay could receive the same products at a cheaper price from the neighbouring Argentine provinces. There would be no reason to change this arrangement.
Also, the "República Juliana" is just a kind a joke. IOTL it consisted of only one city (Laguna), lasted only four months and was created only because the rebells from Rio Grande do Sul occupied it. This whole affair actually destroyed Laguna's economy, that never fully recovered after that. They wouldn't have a reason to try it again.
And keeping them only to Paraguay to have access to the sea wouldn't work. Paraguay have a much better and easier access through the Paraná River. Going through Santa Catarina and Northern Rio Grande do Sul to reach Paraguay would only force you to cross hundreds of quilometers of jungle in in hilly terrain, something like this: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_n2oOLIwEd...18Ie8zOc_c/s1600/vale_rio_docouroDSC00373.jpg

Venezuela has a big joungle, but if Brazil is busy with Bolivia and Paraguay, they can attack in Jungle.
I wonder how would they do it when there were no roads and no realiable maps of the region. And the fact that they would be making an entire army cross the Amazon rainforest. How would be their supply lines, for example? Frankly, it would make more to the Venezuelans send a fleet against Brazilian ports than making an operation where half of the troops would be dead from tropical diseases before they even reach the border.
 

maverick

Banned
Taking the Kingdom of Araucanía seriously is the south American equivalent or recognizing Emperor Norton as the legitimate ruler of the United States, or saying that California could secede during the ACW with that man as its King.

Jesus, Orelie-Antoine was taken as seriously as the Nostalgia Critic invasion of Molossia!
 
The whole economy of Rio Grande do Sul was based on the exportation of meat and leather to other Brazilian provinces, while Paraguay could receive the same products at a cheaper price from the neighbouring Argentine provinces. There would be no reason to change this arrangement.
Also, the "República Juliana" is just a kind a joke. IOTL it consisted of only one city (Laguna), lasted only four months and was created only because the rebells from Rio Grande do Sul occupied it. This whole affair actually destroyed Laguna's economy, that never fully recovered after that. They wouldn't have a reason to try it again.
And keeping them only to Paraguay to have access to the sea wouldn't work. Paraguay have a much better and easier access through the Paraná River. Going through Santa Catarina and Northern Rio Grande do Sul to reach Paraguay would only force you to cross hundreds of quilometers of jungle in in hilly terrain, something like this: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_n2oOLIwEdc...roDSC00373.jpg
It could be that the economy is based on that, but why should that change, if they are independent, I think Paraguay would create this state and then it could be that after few years they want back, but also people in this state would be more happy because of their new independence, so a war would start, how would get hurt than, Brazil. So it can be that Brazil get it back, but under which price.

I wonder how would they do it when there were no roads and no realiable maps of the region. And the fact that they would be making an entire army cross the Amazon rainforest. How would be their supply lines, for example? Frankly, it would make more to the Venezuelans send a fleet against Brazilian ports than making an operation where half of the troops would be dead from tropical diseases before they even reach the border.
Ok, Venezuela and Columbia attack ports, what part of land would they get at the end, the parts in the map, so it come out to the same.

Taking the Kingdom of Araucanía seriously is the south American equivalent or recognizing Emperor Norton as the legitimate ruler of the United States, or saying that California could secede during the ACW with that man as its King.

Jesus, Orelie-Antoine was taken as seriously as the Nostalgia Critic invasion of Molossia!
A tribe vote him to their king, so it seems to me, that at this time nobody really control this area, so why should Paraguay not organize alliance between the tribes and create a "state".

Sorry, if I let you think I am crazy and stupid with the last posts !
 
The 19th century was full of bizarre sidesaddle trips, many of which died on the vine, some of which flukishly turned out. I wouldn't rule out the Kingdom of Auracania as ASB. Not a timeline I want to try a hand at, but ....
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Taking the Kingdom of Araucanía seriously is the south American equivalent or recognizing Emperor Norton as the legitimate ruler of the United States, or saying that California could secede during the ACW with that man as its King.

Jesus, Orelie-Antoine was taken as seriously as the Nostalgia Critic invasion of Molossia!

The Rajahs of Sarawak weren't in a very different situation and it somehow worked for a while.
 

maverick

Banned
The Rajahs of Sarawak weren't in a very different situation and it somehow worked for a while.

I don't remember James Brooke being declared insane by three different governments, including his own. Not to mention that Brooke had money, resources and leadership skills, and of course, Sarawak is different from the Patagonian tribes. The closest thing to unity in the Pampas was Cafulcura's Confederación de las Salinas Grandes and that was still just a loose alliance of tribes united by their common hatred of Argentina and far from having the necessary foundations, structures and superstructures to form a coherent State.

It was easier for James Brooke because he inherited a system. A crooked, dysfunctional and inefficient system that he spent his whole rule reforming, true, but still, the necessary structures were there and he just had to take over.

Orelie-Antoine on the other hand claimed to be King of massively vast territory that included several tribes, not only the Rucas under Quilapán, which recognized him IOTL (because they thought that he could bring them much needed French support), but also Cafulcura's people, then the Ranqueles, Pincen's people, etc. Why would they accept the rule of a white man that doesn't have his own army, like Brooke did, or foreign support of any kind? The French took him for a nutjob, the British would not like the idea of a French Citizen establishing his own personal kingdom in their sphere of influence and the Americans of course have never liked the idea of Europeans meddling with their backyard. That's without mentioning that this man's presence IOTL is what apparently convinced Chile to finish the job and occupy Araucania from 1861 onwards.

Here's an interesting take on King Aureliano Antonio

Not impossible enough to warrant ASB Intervention, but pretty out there unless there's a big change of circumstances.
 
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