John Brown escapes Harper's Ferry to the mountains?

Brown’s plan was not to conduct a sudden raid and then escape to the mountains. Rather, his plan was to use those rifles and pikes he captured at the arsenal, in addition to those he brought along, to arm rebellious slaves with the aim of striking terror to the slaveholders in Virginia. He believed that on the first night of action two to five hundred black adherents would join his line. He ridiculed the militia and regular army that might oppose him. Then he would send agents to nearby plantations, rallying the slaves. He planned to hold Harpers Ferry for a short time, expecting that as many volunteers, white and black, would join him as would form against him. He then would make a rapid movement southward, sending out armed bands along the way. They would free more slaves, obtain food, horses and hostages, and destroy slaveholding morale. Brown planned to follow the Appalachian mountains south into Tennessee and even Alabama, the heart of the South, making forays into the plains on either side.

Click to expand...

Through small bands of trained and armed men, “Captain” Brown intended to assist and guide slaves in their escape from the South. The causeway to freedom would be the Appalachian mountain chain, stretching from northern Alabama into Pennsylvania. Night after night, from mountain fortress to mountain fortress, a trained army of liberators — operating in small groups — would escort the escaped slaves northward. Brown’s system would be so safe and so reliable that it would entice thousands of slaves to participate.

Click to expand...

(http://www.civilwar.org/hallowed-ground-magazine/Fall-09/purged-away-with-blood.html ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Brown's_raid_on_Harpers_Ferry#Brown.27s_Preparation )

Unfortunately for John Brown, almost no slaves heard of his raid before the Virginia state militia surrounded the arsenal. So, he was cut off from supporters and defeated. Yet, what if he succeeded? Specifically, suppose that before the militia arrived, he evacuated the arsenal with as many weapons and supplies as possible for some mountain hideout and prepared to carry out his plan? What would happen?

The slave owners would be terrified, of course - look at Nat Turner's rebellion to see what might happen. The militia would immediately start hunting for Brown. I'm not sure whether he'd be caught; note that most of the people in future West Virginia at least didn't mind the thought of abolition (of course, aiding an armed insurrectionist would be another matter). One way or another, though, this would have great effects a few years down the line, when Lincoln is elected (assuming he still is - do you think a more successful uprising would make the North more sympathetic or more opposed to the South?) What do you think would happen?

I think his plan has no chance to succed. Even if the slaves would rise his untrained troops could never beat the milita and federal troops.

If he manages to escape 'till the civil war he might end up a hero.

What still baffles me is the pikes. What were they doing in that armoury? Relics from the Empire?

Uriel said:

I think his plan has no chance to succeed. Even if the slaves would rise his untrained troops could never beat the militia and federal troops.

If he manages to escape 'till the civil war he might end up a hero.

Click to expand...

Lack of training is not an especially strong reason to expect that John Brown and his comrades would be defeated. There are countless examples of poorly-trained guerrillas holding off regular forces and wearing them down over years. If the rebellion snowballs fast enough, slavery in the south is over. If it gets to the point where adequate suppression of the rebellion requires sizable federal commitment, it will force the issue to be resolved, leading to the end of slavery. The blacks are fighting for freedom. Not just freedom from a handful of specific grievances, but from highly suppressive slavery.

What I've heard was a key problem for the Nat Turner rebellion was that white slaveowners owned entire families. It's one thing to run off and fight in the hills for freedom, but it's entirely another thing to leave your wife and kids to the mercies of your furious former owner. Establishment of a safe stronghold for non-combatants on the side of the blacks and abolitionists would be crucial.

How does he rally blacks if he has fled into the mountains?

As I understand it, there were hardly any slaves in the mountain country. That's why it was Unionist during the ACW - hardly any slaveowners there. And in such a heavily white region, any runaway slave would stick out like a sore thumb.

Even if the slaves would rise his untrained troops could never beat the milita and federal troops.

Click to expand...

There are countless examples of poorly-trained guerrillas holding off regular forces and wearing them down over years... If it gets to the point where adequate suppression of the rebellion requires sizable federal commitment, it will force the issue to be resolved, leading to the end of slavery.

Click to expand...

There's the dichotomy right there - though I don't know if Brown realized it. I think his plans were to create a well-organized, well-used Underground Railroad to bring thousands of slaves to freedom in Canada. Of course, his plans probably were idealistic - I don't think he'd have gotten more than several hundred, though I'm willing to listen to any arguments differently.

But, however many slaves actually did get to freedom, how do you think his presence in the mountains would affect the mounting tensions between North and South?

Cymraeg said:

What still baffles me is the pikes. What were they doing in that armoury? Relics from the Empire?

Click to expand...

Old Stonewall Jackson wanted them for his men later on in the war, if I recall.

Da Pwnzlordd said:

Lack of training is not an especially strong reason to expect that John Brown and his comrades would be defeated. There are countless examples of poorly-trained guerrillas holding off regular forces and wearing them down over years. If the rebellion snowballs fast enough, slavery in the south is over. If it gets to the point where adequate suppression of the rebellion requires sizable federal commitment, it will force the issue to be resolved, leading to the end of slavery. The blacks are fighting for freedom. Not just freedom from a handful of specific grievances, but from highly suppressive slavery.

Click to expand...

The main problem with black guerillas would be that the lack the "move in the population like a fish in water" ability.
The slaves were living on the farms of their white owners so it would be hard for them to support the rebellion (giving shelter to partisans, farmer-by-day-warrior-by-night trick ) without being discovered.
Also the were the poor whites. They lived all over the land and probably know it better than the blacks bound to their farms.
The most successful guerilla wars have always been fought by a rual population of small peasants against a foreign invader who did not really understand neither land nor people (or a highly corrupt regime but that doesn't apply here either).

As far as I know there was no larger black partisan movement during the civil war, were their chances should have been much better.

A black uprising should have looked like this:
-Slaves revolt. In some areas the revolt is surpressed by white militias, in others the rebells are successful and the whites flee or are killed. Several rebell strongholds appear.

-Whites in other areas are now highly alert, armed all day and keeping a watchful eye on their slaves.

-National Guard, Militias and Federal Army advance against the rebel strongholds. The rebels are defeated and have to flee.

-Rebels that flee to white controled areas are quickly captured/killed (reasons see above)

-Only in ver sparsely / un-populated areas (mountains, swamps) guerillas prevail for some time. But those ares can only substain smaller groups that are no real thread to white rule and slowly hunted down.

Da Pwnzlordd said:

If it gets to the point where adequate suppression of the rebellion requires sizable federal commitment, it will force the issue to be resolved, leading to the end of slavery.

Click to expand...

Possible but only after the rebelion is but down. (And the South should be even less likely to accept it)

Well. . .

There was the book Fire On the Mountain, in which Harriet Tubman was with Brown's men and the raid was a victory rather than a defeat. But Fire On the Mountain is strange in that you then have a African-American guerrilla war, with support from Haiti and Garibaldi, ending in a Negro republic of the unborn C. S. A. And a U. S. that undergoes a socialist revolution. That seems DAMN unlikely, given the military situation alone, not even mentioning the political situation of 1860.