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Old October 29th, 2010, 02:45 AM
theReturner theReturner is offline
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How Many Countries Could The Soviet Union Have Broken Up Into?

Their are now 15 countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, including Russia. My question is, what is the maximum number of countries the Soviet Union could have broken into fallowing the end of the Cold War?
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Old October 29th, 2010, 02:46 AM
The Dude The Dude is offline
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Well, each country would have to have enough room to store one person, so take the population of the Soviet Union at the time of breakup, and...

Oh, wait, you wanted a realistic answer! Well, that requires a bit more research...
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Old October 29th, 2010, 02:48 AM
black angel black angel is offline
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Old October 29th, 2010, 02:49 AM
IchBinDieKaiser IchBinDieKaiser is offline
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Well, you could have each of Russia's autonomous republics become independent.
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Old October 29th, 2010, 03:03 AM
Whanztastic Whanztastic is offline
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42 (Filler)
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Old October 29th, 2010, 03:49 AM
Legosim Legosim is offline
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42 (Filler)


A Jewish state in Siberia would have been interesting.
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Old October 29th, 2010, 04:01 AM
tqm111 tqm111 is offline
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Old October 29th, 2010, 04:20 AM
KingByng KingByng is offline
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Have a much more dramatic breakup of the USSR result in all the little ASSRs going independent as well as the SSRs (ignoring the fact that it was illegal for an ASSR to do so). That results in an additional 22 states, bringing to total of post-Soviet countries to 37.

There were also eight autonomous oblasts, so if they can manage independence somehow we have nearly 50 states forming out of the wreckage of the Soviet Union.
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Old October 29th, 2010, 04:56 AM
freodhoric freodhoric is offline
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To speculate out of almost total ignorance:
The SSRs all go separate as does Kalinigrad, and maybe Moscow.
(15 or 16)

I don't think all of the ASSRs would split up, but possible. My take:
Abkhaz ASSR
Chechen-Ingush ASSR & Kabardino-Balkar ASSR
Dagestan ASSR
Nakhchivan ASSR
Kalmyk ASSR
Karelian ASSR (with Finland or as part of a North Russia possibly with Komi ASSR)
Komi ASSR
Northern Ossetian ASSR & South Ossetia
Tatar ASSR and Bashkir ASSR
Udmurt ASSR, Chuvash ASSR, Mari ASSR & Mordovian ASSR
(9 or 10)

Russia & Western SSRs would split into some combination of:
Buryat ASSR, Tuva ASSR, Yakut ASSR, Eastern Russia, Central Russia, and/or Pacific Russia
(2 to 6)

Total of 26 to 32 nations.
Map?
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Old October 29th, 2010, 05:08 AM
loughery111 loughery111 is offline
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Realistically? Most likely the OTL ones plus Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and maybe (but not likely AT ALL) Tuva. There is also a small possibility that you could get the various bits of Ossetia split out of their current arrangements and united as an independent state. Even Tuva and Ossetia are pretty out there, though. None of these are very likely, even the big three...
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Old October 29th, 2010, 08:46 AM
Stateless Stateless is offline
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We had a thread about this a month ago. Back then I said:

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Chechnya's got the most potential for successful secession: it has the demographic composition (majority non-Russian), it has Russia's oil-refining capacity making it economically viable, it's on the periphery of Russia, and it has a history of existence outside Russia. The problem is getting it international recognition. None of the other regions in Russia have all these going for it: while Tatarstan and Bashkortostan made bids for independence, the fact that they were completely surrounded by Russia made them unlikely to be able to function without Russia's help.

Of course, OTL Gagauzia, Transnistria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh were all (at least briefly) de facto independent. They could be recognised properly, that would boost the number of post-Soviet nations.

Nakhchivan wasn't too far from being de facto independent, they could go if differences between Aliyev and Mütallibov remain and Aliyev maintains his stranglehold over Nakhchivan.

Adjara was in a state of 'armed autonomy'; if Georgia had tried to end Adjara's autonomy during the civil war the Russians might have intervened, and they could have followed Abkhazia and South Ossetia out.

Perhaps Talysh-Mugan could go indpendent from Azerbaijan. OTL they only tried for autonomy, but assuming a longer, more violent Armenian-Azeri War, they could possibly have a chance. But this is a long shot.
So that gives us another 10. The Tajik Civil War could possibly have resulted in an independent Gorno-Badakhshan (but any such state would have been a mess, with its own civil war between liberal reformists and Islamists). Beyond that it would take regions which are ethnically majority Russian seceding to get extra countries, and then the sky is more or less the limit. I would guess:

- An East Ukraine (maybe including the Crimea)
- United North Caucasus republic
- An independent Russian far-east
- Kaliningrad
- Some sort of Volga/Don region.
- Leningrad region
- Maybe Siberia if not part of the Russian far-east
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Old October 29th, 2010, 09:29 AM
Iori Iori is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loughery111 View Post
Realistically? Most likely the OTL ones plus Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and maybe (but not likely AT ALL) Tuva. There is also a small possibility that you could get the various bits of Ossetia split out of their current arrangements and united as an independent state. Even Tuva and Ossetia are pretty out there, though. None of these are very likely, even the big three...
Id argue that Tuva is one fo the few that both could realistically do so and would.

Tuva is one of the few Federal Subjects of Russia in which the native peoples form a large majority (64% in 1989, 77% in 2002), it has a land border with another country, it's isolated from the rest of Russia (and thus hard to get to) and actually had the will to do it (the Tyvan constitution is more similar to an independent states than a Federal subject).
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Old October 29th, 2010, 12:58 PM
Stateless Stateless is offline
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Id argue that Tuva is one fo the few that both could realistically do so and would.

Tuva is one of the few Federal Subjects of Russia in which the native peoples form a large majority (64% in 1989, 77% in 2002), it has a land border with another country, it's isolated from the rest of Russia (and thus hard to get to) and actually had the will to do it (the Tyvan constitution is more similar to an independent states than a Federal subject).
Maybe possible in 1991, especially if there's a massive collapse of Russia and its economy (more massive than OTL): Tuva does (and did) rely heavily on the Russian government for about 90% of its income, so you'd need a situation where Russia and its economy collapses too much to support the Tuvans.
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Old December 2nd, 2010, 11:59 AM
Strategos' Risk Strategos' Risk is offline
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Okay, so about new post-Soviet nations in 1991: I love all of these suggestions, but it looks like we get lists of countries but end up not really getting anywhere with it. Now, could we do something like we examine each of these proposed alternate nations (or at least the major ones) and think of what could have caused them to become independent? Why didn't any ASSRs become independent in OTL?

Let's start with an easier one: what could have led Karelia to have become independent in 1991?
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Old December 2nd, 2010, 12:36 PM
Grey Wolf Grey Wolf is online now
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The obvious reason it didn't happen is because Chechnya tried - if they had been allowed to get away with it, others would have followed (Tatars, Dagestan etc) but as the Russians stomped on Chechnya it dispirited the idea

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Old December 2nd, 2010, 12:38 PM
yourworstnightmare yourworstnightmare is offline
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Exactly as many as OTL: 15 (+2 that secede from Georgia with Russian help, but are not recognized by others).
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Old December 2nd, 2010, 12:42 PM
Grimm Reaper Grimm Reaper is offline
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There were jokes in one columnist's future history involving a republic of north central Moscow...as I recall it also mentioned new nuclear powers like Barbados and Rush Limbaugh.
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