Reagan is President between 1977-1985: Who is the GOP nominee in 1984?

[Glass Onion]

Let's say Reagan successfully primaries Ford, and takes the GOP nomination four years earlier than IOTL. I'm not sure specifically how to do this but I'm thinking a few years down the line. As he suggested IOTL, Reagan picks Richard Schweiker as his running mate. Somehow, Reagan manages to get himself reelected in 1980 perhaps defeating Senator Edward Kennedy? Anyway, come 1984 what does the GOP primary race look like? My guess is Vice President Schweiker gets the nomination but I'm not entirely sure.

What might a Schweiker vs. Hart race look like after 16 years of Republican control of the White House?

Also, what happens to George H. W. Bush? He isn't going to be Reagan's vice President, and he certainly won't run in 1980. Secretary of State Bush?

[chris N]

It is entirely possible that Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker would run for President. He would have as much support as the vice President and probably more of the Conservative wing of the party.

[black angel]

George H. W. Bush was head of the CIA in 1976, likely keeps that job over next few years gets moved up to National Security Advisor, maybe in the last years of Reagan's second term he gets State.

[RogueBeaver]

Hart probably wins, because the base hates Schweiker and has no real reason to vote for him. Bush probably moves to Foggy Bottom and retires after the Republicans leave office. He'll only be 60, but without a national base he has no hope of running for POTUS.

[Glass Onion]

Originally Posted by RogueBeaver

Hart probably wins, because the base hates Schweiker and has no real reason to vote for him. Bush probably moves to Foggy Bottom and retires after the Republicans leave office. He'll only be 60, but without a national base he has no hope of running for POTUS.

I think Hart would definitely benefit from Republican fatigue and the lack of support for Schweiker. On the other hand, assuming Reagan picks Volcker, we probably see an economic boom in 1984 here just as we did IOTL. That good economy might be enough to push Schweiker over the edge. Still, it's tough to see the Republicans lasting through 1984 if they've held the White House since 1968.

[theReturner]

Originally Posted by Glass Onion

I think Hart would definitely benefit from Republican fatigue and the lack of support for Schweiker. On the other hand, assuming Reagan picks Volcker, we probably see an economic boom in 1984 here just as we did IOTL. That good economy might be enough to push Schweiker over the edge. Still, it's tough to see the Republicans lasting through 1984 if they've held the White House since 1968.

That would be, what? Twenty years total?

[Westbrook 49]

Originally Posted by Glass Onion

Let's say Reagan successfully primaries Ford, and takes the GOP nomination four years earlier than IOTL. I'm not sure specifically how to do this but I'm thinking a few years down the line. As he suggested IOTL, Reagan picks Richard Schweiker as his running mate. Somehow, Reagan manages to get himself reelected in 1980 perhaps defeating Senator Edward Kennedy? Anyway, come 1984 what does the GOP primary race look like? My guess is Vice President Schweiker gets the nomination but I'm not entirely sure.

What might a Schweiker vs. Hart race look like after 16 years of Republican control of the White House?

Also, what happens to George H. W. Bush? He isn't going to be Reagan's vice President, and he certainly won't run in 1980. Secretary of State Bush?

First and foremost, I love the use of primary as a verb.
For my money, Reagan picks either Schweiker or Dole, Schweiker because of the moderate aspects, Dole because of familiarity with Washington and support from establishment conservatives. For 84, it's an open Democratic field, but whoever the Democrats nominate wins.

[Plumber]

Originally Posted by Glass Onion

Still, it's tough to see the Republicans lasting through 1984 if they've held the White House since 1968.

Pretty ASB in itself. Not even Reagan could last beyond '80 ITTL IMO, particularly since he won't get good luck with timing and the economy crashes and burns under voodonomics.

[Green Shadow]

Schweiker wouldn't be able to gather the bases support in favor of himself, so(assuming he even wins in the primaries, which be almost certain for anyone other then him) he would need to rally the base againsthis opponent like GHWB did against Dukakis. Of course if it's Hart that will be rather difficult.

Though if that scandal breaks out subsequent to his winning the primaries, it would probably tank Hart.

[chris N]

Regan's close friend the Senator from Nevada might have been picked for the VP position or might have run for President.

[RogueBeaver]

Aka Paul Laxalt, who is best known for having arranged the Marcos exile in '86.

[Emperor of Scandinavia]

I would like to see Carter be the democratic nominee in 80, and for the sake of things lets just say the oil embargo still happens and there are still massive gas line in the u.s.

I think it would be awsome for Carter to buldoze reagan in electorially wise. and just for the fun of it Carter can come in saying 'it's morning in america" and reagan can make some sort of "malaise" speech


Carter v Reagan
LIVE
November 2nd @ Washington D.C

[modelcitizen]

Mondale would still be prominent

Bush would have as much of a "base" in 1984 as he had in otl 1980, only with more better resume ittl. In otl 1980, Bush came in second to Reagan in the primaries. In ttl 1984, Bush might clinch the nomination, perhaps.

unless of course Ford decides to make a comeback.


ooooh lookit the butterfly so pretty....


.....America's first black president: Senator Edward Brooke, elected to the White House in 1988!

(does this mean that Mondale/Hart/EMK/Carter/whomever wins in '84 only to lose re-election to the Republican senator from Massachusetts? why not.)

[The Viscount Cranleigh]

Originally Posted by Westbrook 49

First and foremost, I love the use of primary as a verb.
For my money, Reagan picks either Schweiker or Dole, Schweiker because of the moderate aspects, Dole because of familiarity with Washington and support from establishment conservatives. For 84, it's an open Democratic field, but whoever the Democrats nominate wins.

Did Reagan not pretty much pledge to pick Schweiker as his running mate during the primaries?

[Wendell]

If Reagan wins in 1976, and is reelected in 1980, then the dynamics of 1984 are entirely changed, and any number of people could seek the nomination of either party. However, I think Schweiker could be the GOP nominee in 1984 in this TL, especially if a Reagan ally is his choice for Veep. Remember, while the conservative wing of the GOP was gaining strength, without the particular dynamics of Carter's win and the timult which followed, the socially conservative wing of the Republican Party could still remain substantially smaller.

Nonetheless, I think Schweiker/Laxalt lose to whoever the Democrats put forward.