German Pacific Colonies

[snakeplkn]

World War I - America never enters the war, Germany wins the war in 1918. Does Germany get its Pacific colonies back from Japan?

[David S Poepoe]

I would say that the Japanese could safely say no to the Germans and the Germans won't be able to do anything. Well, they could sail over and try to take them back, but the Russians tried that and failed at Tsushima. The Japanese could pay an indemity but I think thats all.

[unsunghero]

Germany could get KWland back from Australia; I suspect they would try to entice the Japanese with French/British colonies - or, the Germans might acknowledge the Japanese gains and simply take French Indochina.

[Chengar Qordath]

Germany will probably just have to accept whatever terms Japan is willing to offer, the logistics of launching an invasion of the Pacific isles from their nearest base in East Africa are just about impossible. Add to that the fact that the German public is pretty sick of war and not too eager to enter a massive naval war in the Pacific for a few islands that have little purpose other than prestige and I think we can say tha Germany would much rather resolve things peacefully. If Japan is smart they offer Germany a deal that lets them save face in the situation, most likely by returning a few of the islands or Qingdao, or just paying Germany an indemnity.

[Cockroach]

There is no way that Germany can consider an immediate offensive. However give them a decade or so to build up a pacific fleet, fortrify Rabul (assuming us aussies let them have it back), etc. then maybe a counter offensive is practicle.

[Redbeard]

If winning WWI The German warpotential (as meassured by Paul Kennedy) would be many times higher that of Japan, and Germany will have the potential to succesfully wage war against Japan. Not by 1918, but probably inside 10 years - logistics need to be in place. If that is the ambition I guess they will initially secure bases there. Could be French Indochina and a defence agreement with Netherlands giving base rights in Dutch East India.

The problem for this strategy would be UK. If UK and the RN are still intact, the British will anytime be able to ruin a German Pacific presence. Singapore is still not built, but if the Germans start building bases in FIC and DEI the British, if still in the game, will start building bases too.

In other words the Germans can't make themselves present outside the European continent before UK is out of the game. So if that is not taken care of in WWI, the Pacific campaign will have to await the follow up WW 1,5 of Germany vs. UK.

All in all I doubt however if a victorious Germany in WWI would develop further along the path taken before WWI. The Socialdemocrats were very strong and growing, and by 1914 on the brink of taking over power. My guess is Socialdemocrats and the like taking over power much like it was done in Scandinavia in the first three decades of the 20th century. Here the background had been regimes as totalitarian as the German, resistance was stiff, and at times violent (Swedish Army machinegunning striking workers as late as 1919), but never the less ended in a relatively peaceful transformation into parliamentarism.

If so in Germany too they will probably still keep up a relatively strong army (to keep generals happy, and even armies might be of use), but focus will be on internal reforms and development gradually going into economical co-operation with other European (socialdemocratic) countries.

If Wall Street still happens the crisis will not develop as seriously in Europe, because the SD governments will be less prone to try to cure the crisis by cutting budgets.

Colonies and Empires will probably be high on the political agenda, and the Germans will make a virtue of not having an overseas Empire. The British might very well feel that their Empire is now threatened by forces against which the RN is no good.

The American role will be interesting. On one hand they have no interest in defending the British Empire, but on the other the German influx of trade unions, social welfare and strong government can easily bee seen as a much more serious danger than the British Empire ever was.

The German SD's will probably see the Soviet Union (if revolution still happens) as a serious threat, also because Germany will have many communists of her own. The SD's, the industrialists and the army could very well find together in crushing the communists, first in Germany and then in a campaign against SU...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[Steffen]

i think an end of the Great War would lead to a solution for the colonial problem.
While I don´t see the High Seas Fleet on the move to the Far East, they will surely make some kind of compensatory bussiness.
A peace conference like Versailles is bound to happen, and they have several beaten nations they can force to give something.
If Russia is in that kind of turmoil as OTL, one can easily imagine the Japanese annex their siberian counter-coast and give the colonies back.

Either way, the worth of the colonies isn´t exactly high to warrant the situation of an international outcast.

[Dave Bender]

I believe this would happen. The historical German pacific colonies were economically worthless. Germany receives token compensation, then signs a peace treaty with Japan. Dumping the Pacific colonies will go a long way towards allowing the German navy to downsize.

Germany has always been a continental power. They will be far more interested in their newly gained territory in central Europe.

[snakeplkn]

Looks like Germany isn't getting back its islands from Japan anytime soon ... what are the chances of Australia/New Zealand returning German New Guinea, German Samoa, Bismarck Archipelago, and Nauru?

[MrP]

How badly beaten is the Allied cause? If Britain's severely mauled, an earlier fragmentation might either be forced, or naturally occur several years sooner. This has implications for these possessions.

[NHBL]

I've been playing with different possibilities along these lines for a while, and had several different thoughts.
The baseline assumptions I'm using are these:
France has been crushed, with severe postwar limitations on its military, and some reparations. Russia has also beeen defeated, with considerable anexations. The war ended early enough (late 1915) that the Russian Revolution never happened, and Germany quietly put Lenin in a shallow grave.
Britian, although suggering naval losses, is mostly intact, and will soon have crushing naval superiority over Germany. (All those 15" gun armed battleships are still being built.)
The USA never entered the war.
Japan paying Germany for the islands makes sence--no need for further war, and everybody gets something. Unfortuneately, Kaiser Wilhelm II's government was never known for clever dealings on the diplomatic front. And the Kaiser's prestige is at an all time high after such a crushing victory...
One possibility: After the war is over, peace treaties are signed all round--German colonies are restored, bordr issues settled, all of that. Between Japan and Germany, though, no treaty is signed as negotiations keep stumbling over the Pacific colonies. Instead, a mere armistice remains in place. An armistice can last a long time--look at the Korean situation.
As tensins between Japan and the US rise--they still see each other as likely enemies--Germany might even reach out to the USA as a logical ally. Most likely, they would bungle it, but perhaps not.
This issue of the Pacific Islands could lead to postureing, base building--or more likely simply simmer on the back burner for decades.
If things come to a head between the US and Japan, Germany offers support to the US in return for her colonies back, possibly?
Or a highly arrogant Germany simply demands them back after the USA has spilled blood to seize them, and relations between the two countries deteriorate.
Either way, perhaps the foolish thing that triggers another Great War, this one starting in the Pacific and expanding to Europe...

[Dave Bender]

This cannot happen. Even if Germany crushes both France and Russia, the RN still controlls the ocean. In fact, an early German victory will probably benefit Britain. Fewer British casualties and less war debt.

I expect the U.K. will offer compensation to Germany for her S.W. Pacific colonies. Germany will be gaining some colonial territory in Africa.

[MrP]

Well, I can think of a few ways to mess up the British even more than OTL.

* Consistent U-boat campaign (not split up and fiddled to death as OTL)
* A High Seas Fleet that defeats bits of the Grand Fleet in detail, and weakens it to the point of defeat
* Useless British shells produced longer than OTL
* More U-boats

Most other ways (that are immediately in my head) rely on a PoD before the war, though.

Re Africa: Von Lettow-Vorbeck's still wandering around at the end of the Great War with his troops. But the rest of the German colonial forces have long since been disposed of by 1918.

[Dave Bender]

* Consistent U-boat campaign (not split up and fiddled to death as OTL)
* A High Seas Fleet that defeats bits of the Grand Fleet in detail, and weakens it to the point of defeat
* Useless British shells produced longer than OTL
* More U-boats

This will weaken the British blockade, and consequently shorten the war. But post WWI it is not really going to hurt Britain. The British economy will still be intact, and that is what counts. Only a direct German invasion of the British isles will cause lasting damage. And such an invasion is not going to happen.

[MrP]

All I said was - "severely mauled". These are just mechanisms for making Britain spend more money during the war and become more war weary. OTL the expenditure shortened the Empire's life expectancy and made it more fragile. Might we not posit a still weaker Empire had we fought harder and still lost in '18?

[snakeplkn]

I'm looking at this timeline with Germany winning the war during the 1918 spring offensives. I see Japan being too strong to push out, but New Zealand and Australia being forced to withdraw under pressure from Britain.

[MrP]

But if all else is as OTL except Ludendorff's attacks, the RN still controls the waves, as Dave says. Indeed, by then the HSF is so dispirited it can't bring itself to perform the "Death Ride.". Is the PoD an absence of fog, btw? Just reading about it the other day.

[snakeplkn]

No Americans, so Germany's offensives are still stop and go. However the Second Battle of the Marne has no successful Allied counteroffensive. Germany grinds it out, Paris falls.

[Wozza]

Hmm, quick history called for

But if all else is as OTL except Ludendorff's attacks, the RN still controls the waves, as Dave says. Indeed, by then the HSF is so dispirited it can't bring itself to perform the "Death Ride.". Is the PoD an absence of fog, btw? Just reading about it the other day.

The fog HELPED the Germans

No Americans, so Germany's offensives are still stop and go. However the Second Battle of the Marne has no successful Allied counteroffensive. Germany grinds it out, Paris falls.

This topic crops up every so often on this board. US involvement was not strategically decisive in stopping the German spring offensive - although it was the decisive factor in causing it to be launched in the first place

[Wendell]

I'm not sure that a victorious Germany would care about having lost its Pacific colonies, considering what it could pick up elsewhere.