As we all know, the Japanese Empire was one of the most brutal and violent empires in human history - and thanks to its own decisions, one of the shortest lived. However, before the 30s, the Japanese Empire was generally lead by competent, sane leaders (no lovers of democracy, but still sane). In our world, Japan was taken over politically by the military leaders. However: what would happen if the military never achieved the level of power that they did? Would it be possible to prevent Nanking, Pear Harbor, etc? Perhaps even have a neutral Japan in WW2?
A Sane Japanese Empire
- Thread starter Jaehaerys48
- Start date
Give Japan a better deal post-WWI. Maybe give them some or all of the German colonies in the Pacific. Japan's fall to militarism and ultra-nationalism was partly due to getting a bum deal from the Great War.
Unfortunately a POD like this would probably require a lot of miniature alien space bats to mitigate the inherent racism held by Europe's great powers.
Despite the butt-kicking that Japan handed to Russia during the 1904-05 war, the Japanese were still seen as an inferior race by most Europeans. Give Europe a greater respect for the "yellow man" and you have a much saner Japan with her own colonies (outside of Korea, of course) and thus less of a military Napoleon complex.
At least, that's my opinion.
Unfortunately a POD like this would probably require a lot of miniature alien space bats to mitigate the inherent racism held by Europe's great powers.
Despite the butt-kicking that Japan handed to Russia during the 1904-05 war, the Japanese were still seen as an inferior race by most Europeans. Give Europe a greater respect for the "yellow man" and you have a much saner Japan with her own colonies (outside of Korea, of course) and thus less of a military Napoleon complex.
At least, that's my opinion.
Perhaps a stronger Anglo-Japanese alliance? The British were allied with the Japanese, but unfortunately they were also allied with the Russians, who hated the Japanese. I guess if you have a neutral Britain, or go back further (probably pre-1900) and change the political scene to which Britain sees Russia as a greater threat (a more violent "great game"?) you could see a much stronger alliance between them and the Japanese.
hard to do that one... one of the unwritten but pretty clear conditions of US participation in the London Naval Treaty was the ending of that alliance.
A more neutralist Japan that is pro-Fascist but a non-belligerent (like Spain) could have done very well selling ships to the British for example to replace the ones the Germans were sinking. It could of exported to the Soviets too. If Japan had avoided the tempting occupation of French Indochina (which was carried out to isolate China further as well as to provide bases for further operations) and instead settled for browbeating the Vichy French into closing their borders to Nationalist China, and had been content to just maintain pressure on China (although it was costing the Japanese dearly to do this) and hope that the Nationalists eventually fall apart politically and they can make deals with the warlords, it might have been able to reach its objectives in China and avoiding the fatal mistake of going to war with the United States and Britain.
This would require less dominance by the Army in Japanese government somehow .. and that means divergences somewhere in the late 1920s
archaeogeek
Banned
I'd go with the "things fixed at Versailles then and there" - so the Japanese get a better deal, maybe large swathes of Asia get early decolonisation, meaning any action by the Japanese military factions in asia will probably be seen as colonialism both in the empire and abroad...
Fearless Leader
Donor
How about have the Taisho Democracy of the 1920's really take off? POD is in 1921 with Hara Takashi surviving his assassination attempt. This leads to him travelling with a couple bodyguards (equivalent of the secret service) and to more political action.
Takashi then uses his considerable political acumen to remain in power until the mid-twenties before overseeing the earlier formation of a "One and a Half Party System". Basically similar to what happened in the 1950's with the LDJ, the Seyukai and the Kenseikai (perhaps other parties) merge over the fear of socialism and the recognition of needs for reform such as Universal Male suffrage. Together they create an overwhelming power bloc in the Imperial Diet and in so doing begin to amass considerable power to themselves.
This new party (name?) forms a series of stable governments throughout the 1920's thereby preventing the rise of the Military that dominated the 1930's. Constitutional reforms are gradually introduced and clarify the role of the Emperor and Diet.
Takashi then uses his considerable political acumen to remain in power until the mid-twenties before overseeing the earlier formation of a "One and a Half Party System". Basically similar to what happened in the 1950's with the LDJ, the Seyukai and the Kenseikai (perhaps other parties) merge over the fear of socialism and the recognition of needs for reform such as Universal Male suffrage. Together they create an overwhelming power bloc in the Imperial Diet and in so doing begin to amass considerable power to themselves.
This new party (name?) forms a series of stable governments throughout the 1920's thereby preventing the rise of the Military that dominated the 1930's. Constitutional reforms are gradually introduced and clarify the role of the Emperor and Diet.
To not be destroyed by the allies and still amass an empire is difficult for Japan. Much of the territory it gained was the allies. The other territory, China, could not be taken without natural resources like rubber and oil that needed to be obtained by trade with the allies (which stopped) or by taking over their territories.
Perhaps trade being continued could have allowed Japan to amass vast areas in Asia and the Pacific not owned by the great empires but with a great war going on, the Western powers needed all the resources they could get. If there was no war, another power would most likely aim to take over China.
If Japan were to take over China without the need for extra resources, which is tough as the country was so decentralized that it could easily be described as several independent states, this large non-white empire would most likely frighten the established European empires. A reason for war would be found or fabricated and the island nation would find itself at war with a large and powerful coalition.
On top of all this, you have an era when empires were falling apart. If Japan were to make an empire in the 30s it wouldn't last very long. Technology was advancing so that an asian peasant army could defeat a well trained and technologically superior western army. By the 60s the Japanese empire would be fighting a similar war.
It doesn't seem like a Japanese empire was meant to last. But rarely does one last anyways.
Perhaps trade being continued could have allowed Japan to amass vast areas in Asia and the Pacific not owned by the great empires but with a great war going on, the Western powers needed all the resources they could get. If there was no war, another power would most likely aim to take over China.
If Japan were to take over China without the need for extra resources, which is tough as the country was so decentralized that it could easily be described as several independent states, this large non-white empire would most likely frighten the established European empires. A reason for war would be found or fabricated and the island nation would find itself at war with a large and powerful coalition.
On top of all this, you have an era when empires were falling apart. If Japan were to make an empire in the 30s it wouldn't last very long. Technology was advancing so that an asian peasant army could defeat a well trained and technologically superior western army. By the 60s the Japanese empire would be fighting a similar war.
It doesn't seem like a Japanese empire was meant to last. But rarely does one last anyways.
abc123
Banned
This is the most important reason for Japan not to try make an Empire.
But, they were not seeing writing on the Wall.
IMO, if they stopped after Manchuria, they could even get away with that. And if they have found oil in Manchuria...
But they were too greedy.
I Blame Communism
Banned
Personally, I think a stronger China that asserts its authority in Manchuria would give the army a bit less practice at blowing up trains and killing unwanted political figures, which could do the taisho democracy a dose of good.
After 1905, the attitude to Japan (among those literate parts of society who knew what the hell it was) went from "complacent contempt" to "less complacent contempt", and that lasted until the Japanese invaded Russia and started putting Russians to death all over the place. The Russians hated Japan so much, in fact, that the two powers signed a treaty delineating their spheres of influence in Manchuria in the same year as the Anglo-Russian Entente.
Russia, as usual, can't be blamed for all the world's problems.#
Do remember, though, that this leaves the Burma Road open - though without Japan being at war with the west, I doubt anything too threatening to the Japanese campaign will be sent up it until the Germans are beaten and Japan shifts to being a Bulwark Against Bolshevism.
After 1905, the attitude to Japan (among those literate parts of society who knew what the hell it was) went from "complacent contempt" to "less complacent contempt", and that lasted until the Japanese invaded Russia and started putting Russians to death all over the place. The Russians hated Japan so much, in fact, that the two powers signed a treaty delineating their spheres of influence in Manchuria in the same year as the Anglo-Russian Entente.
Russia, as usual, can't be blamed for all the world's problems.#
Do remember, though, that this leaves the Burma Road open - though without Japan being at war with the west, I doubt anything too threatening to the Japanese campaign will be sent up it until the Germans are beaten and Japan shifts to being a Bulwark Against Bolshevism.
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Deleted member 6086
The main problem is that Japan is going to find it very difficult to integrate its colonies and make them loyal Japanese territories. Korea *could* be done, given significant colonization efforts and less brutality, but there would be active resistance movements to this day. Manchuria, let alone China, can not be integrated, Japan doesn't have the population and the natives hated Japan. The only colony the Japanese managed to successfully assimilate was Taiwan, and that was only because of its low population prior to the Nationalist withdrawel there.
Revolutionary Todyo
Banned
Well the racism could be wiped out with a Japanese arse kicking of another Western power. Russia was good and everything, but it's still seen as pretty backward by everyone else.
So say a naval engagement with the Americans over one of their pacific holdings, or maybe the French. Britain would be the big one, though you'd have to be careful or the Royal Navy will be bombarding Koyoto by tea-time.
Though this idea might not really work, plenty of other "inferior" peoples have smashed the West in major battles but it never helped them from being defined as such.
So say a naval engagement with the Americans over one of their pacific holdings, or maybe the French. Britain would be the big one, though you'd have to be careful or the Royal Navy will be bombarding Koyoto by tea-time.
Though this idea might not really work, plenty of other "inferior" peoples have smashed the West in major battles but it never helped them from being defined as such.
This is the best pod, in 1700s have a Meiji like figure emerge in Japan and he leads a revoulution similiar to OTL Meiji restoration and westernized Japan 200 years earlier, Also at this time if Japan opened up massive trade with the Dutch, and Portugese they could then create a navy and Invade Ayutthya, Laos, Siam, etc before the French arrive, seizing these terriotories,'also With Advanced technology Japan destroys the koreans and seize Korea, them go after port arthul, etc where Russia has not yet expanded to, have a massive rebbelions occur in China which soon leads to Japan promising China help in return for Manchuria, so Manchuria falls to the Japanese, who then create a puppet gov, come 200 years later, Japn could integrate these colonies by 190
0 due to 200 year control..... Also due to them westernized when European powers come knocking they will not be able to sieze these colonies from a Japan that is modernized and their views will change come something similiar to WWI in otl Japan sides with the winning side, then it remains neutral in Th Otl WWII in this tl, although in order for this to work the butterfly net must be kept so the butterflies do not expand......
0 due to 200 year control..... Also due to them westernized when European powers come knocking they will not be able to sieze these colonies from a Japan that is modernized and their views will change come something similiar to WWI in otl Japan sides with the winning side, then it remains neutral in Th Otl WWII in this tl, although in order for this to work the butterfly net must be kept so the butterflies do not expand......
I'm not sure Takashi was really all that -- he was an admirable character in many respects, but maybe not that astute politically -- but let's try it on for size.
Problems: one, universal male suffrage came in the late 1920s anyway; and two, fear of socialism dropped dramatically after the March 15 Incident (1928) when the police and security services rounded up pretty much the whole Japanese Communist Party and then put them through a series of well-publicized trials detailing their revolutionary plans and their links to more moderate socialists and labor unions. It didn't help that most of the leadership and intellectuals went "tenko", which is Japanese for publicly confessing error and switching sides.
The net result was a massive discrediting of socialism in Japan; although the major parties still raided it for ideas sometimes, and occasionally resurrected Communism as a bogeyman, basically both socialism and Communism were defunct as political movements until after WWII.
How does this Japan deal with the Great Depression?
Doug M.
The most sane thing for the Japanese Empire to do is not get into a rivalry with the United States. I'm not sure how that is possible after the early 1900s or so. It needs to reach some kind of understanding that averts any potential problems with it and the United States. The problems for Japan in the first half of the 20th century flow from the USA and IJ rivalry.
They were doing a pretty good job in Korea, actually. Japanese rule there was brutal, but efficient. Korean nationalists don't like to admit it, but by the 1930s active resistance had mostly disappeared and a large collaborationist class had grown up. Korean society was dominated by large landowners, who were mostly reconciled to Japanese rule. There were Korean units in the Japanese military, and even Korean generals.
The Japanese were still trying to figure out how to deal with Manchuria. Some Japanese were moving in as settlers, but it was clear that it would never be a settler colony in any meaningful sense. They were aiming more for a "cold India" model, with relatively small Japanese garrison forces and an efficient bureaucracy running a mostly docile native population to Japan's benefit.
You can argue how this might have worked in the long run, but by the war years it was actually working pretty well. (One reason the Kwantung Army collapsed when the Soviets invaded was because it had been gutted by transfers out to active fronts. And the reason the Japanese thought they could do that was, from late 1939 to summer 1945 Manchuria was pretty peaceful.)
Karafuto. Saipan.
Doug M.
I am surprised that no one has mentioned the Portsmouth Treaty. Japan felt that it was humiliated by the treaty negotiated by Theodore Roosevelt, which deprived them of further gains from the Russo-Japanese War. The Japanese felt they were entitled to a least the entire island of Sakhalin, instead they got half.
If the Japanese had got the entire island, it may have given the political elites in that country a bit more confidence that the entire system of Western diplomacy was not biased against them. Plus, the additional oil, gas and coal gained from Sakhalin may have lessened the need for expansion into the Dutch East Indies, Japan's main reason for going to war with the United States.
If the Japanese had got the entire island, it may have given the political elites in that country a bit more confidence that the entire system of Western diplomacy was not biased against them. Plus, the additional oil, gas and coal gained from Sakhalin may have lessened the need for expansion into the Dutch East Indies, Japan's main reason for going to war with the United States.
This is a bit of a myth, though an extremely tenacious one.
Japan's economy in 1941 ran on coal, not gas -- and they had far more than enough coal for their needs.
The oil embargo was aimed quite effectively at the military, especially the Navy -- which burned oil and lots of it. It hardly affected the rest of Japan at all. Civilian needs were modest enough to be met by the Russian exports from North Sakhalin. Which, note closely, continued without interruption from 1941 to the summer of 1945.
So, a *Japan with North Sakhalin in its possession would have been in pretty much exactly the same position as Japan OTL: they would have enough oil to run their civilian economy, but not enough to run the civilian economy, the war in China, the air force, and the Navy.
Doug M.
archaeogeek
Banned
The problem with this: they already imported an enormous amount of oil from soviet Sakhalin. Grabbing the whole island for themselves would at best add 1-3 million barrels of oil to their production for the whole of WW2 (double to quadruple what they already bought in Sakhalin IOTL).
archaeogeek
Banned
So, what if Japan DID get northern part of Sakhalin too by a Treaty of Portsmouth?
Their military runs out of fuel 6 months later in WW2.