What if: Hungary without Miklos Horthy?

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maverick

Banned
Miklos Horthy* was the quintessential cartoon tin-pot strongman: an admiral without a navy, a regent that did his best to keep the King out of the country. Horthy took over in 1920 after the failure of the Hungarian Democratic Republic and the subsequent Romanian occupation.

Now, what if Horthy had not been there to take over?

Let's take the easy way out and have him killed during the chaos of 1918-1920.

Who would be the most plausible Hungarian to take over? Could a Hapsburg Monarch return?** Could an alternate strongman come to power? Could Hungary become Fascist sooner? Could Istvan Bethlen take over instead?

Come on, speculate, I know there's gotta be at least someone interested in inter-war Central Europe in this joint.



*(or Nicholas, if you like translations)
** of course not, that leads to an invasion by the Little Entente, especially Romania.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I'd say there's a fair chance that the Habsburgs will return, though they'll be figureheads. That being said, we may see Hungary move more towards parliamentary democracy. If there is a strongman, Bethlen seems the most likely choice, though he's the most likely choice for any major leadership role in the country.

I don't believe the Habsburgs were ever very gung-ho on fascism, and I could see Karl or Otto taking a stand against it. But then, monarchs were always very wishy-washy on things like that.

That being said, the Jews of Hungary may very well be hauled off to camps much sooner. Horthy did a lot to protect Hungarian Jews from the worst of Nazi atrocities and it was only after he was overthrown that Hungary's Jews were hauled off to the death camps.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Karl or Otto would likely stand against it although it depends how strong it is; IOTL, some far-right elements in Hungary were contemplating crowning another Habsburg who had a more reactionary militarist bent though, before Horthy took over (and to a certain extent he had his hands tied; he feared that a Habsburg restoration in Budapest would be interpreted as an act of war in the Little Entente: the (Great Power) Entente diplomats in Budapest were not very keen on the idea while the british attaché to the imperial court in exile was rather vague about his government's position on retaining Habsburg hungary: whatever was going to happen in the country, however, was not going to be pretty).
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
The neighbours and the Entente powers wouldn't allow a Habsburg restoration. Other strongman candidates could be count Albert Apponyi and Gyula Gömbös.
 

maverick

Banned
yourworstnightmare said:
The neighbours and the Entente powers wouldn't allow a Habsburg restoration. Other strongman candidates could be count Albert Apponyi and Gyula Gömbös.
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That's what I was thinking.

Good candidates those, Apponyi and Gombos, in addition to the aforementioned Bethlen.

Now, would these men continue as regents or would a republic be declared?

Opinions? Thoughts? Not that it would make much of a difference I think.

I don't know if any of these men could get Napoleon fever and declare himself King, or if there was any sort of movement to invite a non-Hapsburg monarch I've never heard of.
 

Susano

Banned
Hm. Ironically, Horthy started out basically as a Romanian vasall - he came to power because Romania funneled weapons to him. So, if he isnt around, the Romanians will pick somebody else. It would have to be an active anti-communist leader, of course, but in the end its their picking...
 

The Vulture

Banned
Fairly certain Hungary would fall into some sort of radicalism, but I can't see a restoration in the cards. Personally, my money is on Gömbös.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Apponyi would be regent just like Horthy. The choice at the time was between Horthy and Apponyi. Gömbös would probably be Fascist. He lead a Conservative group, but he was heavily influenced first by Mussolini and later by Hitler.
 

maverick

Banned
Personally, my money is on Gömbös.
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Me too, but there'd have to be some sort of balance between Gombos and the Conservatives like Bethlen.

Apparently Gombos was not only fundamental in the destruction of Hungarian Communism and the White Terror that followed, but also in preventing Karl Hapsburg from returning in 1921, so he seems like the perfect guy for the job.

I guess this would mean that Hungary becomes kinda Fascist in 1920, with Gombos as regent for life or President of the new Hungarian Republic.

Also, Gombos would be far more accommodating to Mussolini and Hitler, and would perhaps take a more active role than Horthy in trying to redress the Treaty of Trianon, perhaps with disastrous consequences. Although I'd doubt he'd try anything without German or Italian help.
 

The Vulture

Banned
Well, he had some serious kidney or liver problems (don't remember which), so he probably won't last more than ten years or so. Who would succeed him?
 

maverick

Banned
Well, Gombos died of Kidney failure in 1936, and the stress of being strongman of Hungary would certainly wear him down. Apponyi died in 1933 and was already 76 in 1920. That leaves Bethlen, or figures such as Itsvan Friedrich, Miklos Kallay, who IOTL opposed the policies of Gombos and was brought to Government in 1942 to revert the Pro-Nazi policies of the years before; or even the figure opposed to Kallay, Laszlo Bardossy, if he can rise through the 1920s Foreign Ministry as he did IOTL.
 

Douglas

Looking through Google Books online, Gyula Gombos seems likely to rule as a fascist dictator aligned in part with Italy.

"The regent, the majority party, and the leaders of the economy agreed to accept Gombos as prime minister only after he had promised to maintain the existing governmental system and refrain from propagating racist ideas."

"Gombos believed that it was possible to eliminate all obstacles with one bold stoke and to establish a fascist state system...he denied that he wanted to rule as a dictator, but stressed that the nation needed a leader."

"The month after taking office, Gombos visited Rome."

As for what happens after Gombos dies in 1936, tough to say. Probably a fellow fascist takes the reins, but that assumes he doesn't do something stupid like pick a fight with Romania (Yugoslavia seems to have been willing to deal in at least some capacity with Hungary).

EDIT: Perhaps the OTL leaders of the Arrowcross/Hungarist movement take over? Someone like Ferenc Szalasi would have potential as a young Gombos-protege.
 

insert random

Without Horthy, I think Pál Prónay (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A1l_Pr%C3%B3nay) would be the most likely candidate, simply because like Horthy, he had some military to help him. He organized an armed anti-communist movement and even at one point estabilished an independent domain in Western-Hungary(!).
Prónay was an anti-semite and more fascist than Horthy but he was also a strong proponent of a Habsburg restoration, so it is hard to guess what he would do with the country. I guess: strong pro-Italian policies and at least an attempt at a Habsburg revival.
 
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maverick

Banned
Indeed, not to mention that Gombos and his successors would surely be openly anti-semiticand fascist as opposed to the more moderate Horthy.

We could see a Rome-Budapest "axis" as early as the 1920s.
 

jycee

maverick said:
Indeed, not to mention that Gombos and his successors would surely be openly anti-semiticand fascist as opposed to the more moderate Horthy.

We could see a Rome-Budapest "axis" as early as the 1920s.
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This would be interesting. You think we could get Italy and Hungary (Throw Albania and Bulgaria in there as well) going to war against Yugoslavia and Romania (maybe Czechoslovakia).
A sort of mini-axis vs. little-entente war much earlier than WWII. And if we do could this avoid WWII? Also what are the results if the mini-axis does win?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
jycee said:
This would be interesting. You think we could get Italy and Hungary (Throw Albania and Bulgaria in there as well) going to war against Yugoslavia and Romania (maybe Czechoslovakia).
A sort of mini-axis vs. little-entente war much earlier than WWII. And if we do could this avoid WWII? Also what are the results if the mini-axis does win?
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Hmm, if Bulgaria is involved then Greece could much likely be drawn into it. Depending on when war breaks out Austria could be drawn in on the Italian side. Let's say Czechoslovakia ,Austria and Greece are not drawn in (for convenience sake, I think Hungary and Bulgaria would fall easily if they had to fight on three fronts, and for Austria to be involved on the Italian side, well it has to happen quite late).
The result of an Italian victory would most likely be:
1. Italian annexation of the Dalmatian coastline, Fiume and Montenegro
2. A Italian Croat puppet run by crazy murderers, parts of Bosnia included
3. Hungarian annexation of the Banat, at least parts of Transylvania (perhaps all of it, not certain).
4. Some kind of Slovenian puppet of Italy, parts of Slovenia annexed to Italy.
5. Albanian annexation of Kosovo.
6. Bulgarian annexation of Dobrudja, Yugoslav Macedonia and the Nis area
7. A rump Serbian state including parts of Bosnia
8. Romanian rump state run by crazy murderous people. (USSR have snatched Bessarabia).
 

dcontreras

I have a question. I never understood this. Horthy was a regent. For who? When he was to eventually leave, who was supposed to inherit the throne if not the Hapsburgs?
 

Zajir

dcontreras said:
I have a question. I never understood this. Horthy was a regent. For who? When he was to eventually leave, who was supposed to inherit the throne if not the Hapsburgs?
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It would be very ironic if he was succeded by his sone Istvan...
 

Susano

Banned
dcontreras said:
I have a question. I never understood this. Horthy was a regent. For who? When he was to eventually leave, who was supposed to inherit the throne if not the Hapsburgs?
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"The Crown" as an abstract concept. Legally that is well grounded in monarchist thought actually, a regent for a vacant throne - but nontheless as mavs aid it was just another point adding to Horthys tinpotness.
 
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