|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
|
Thatcher’s Last Stand.
![]() Thatcher’s last stand. Part 1 November 1990. There were differences within the Cabinet over Thatcher's perceived intransigence in her approach to the European Economic Community — in particular many leading Conservatives wanted Britain to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism, a move which Thatcher did not favour. ![]() In 1989 the then Foreign Secretary Sir Geoffrey Howe and Chancellor Nigel Lawson forced Thatcher to agree to the "Madrid Conditions", namely that Britain would eventually join the ERM "when the time was right". In July 1989 she retaliated by removing Howe from the Foreign Office, moving him to Deputy Prime Minister. Lawson - who had clashed with Thatcher over "shadowing the Deutschemark" early in 1988 - then resigned as Chancellor in October 1989, unable to accept Thatcher taking independent advice from the economist Alan Walters. ![]() The beneficiary of these moves was the hitherto-unknown John Major, who briefly succeeded Howe as Foreign Secretary before succeeding Lawson as Chancellor. In October 1990 Major and Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd finally obtained agreement from a reluctant Thatcher that Britain should join the ERM. ![]() In her Party Conference Speech early in October, Thatcher mocked the Liberal Democrats' new "bird" logo in language lifted from the famous "Monty Python" "Dead Parrot" sketch. This looked more than slightly foolish when the Liberal Democrats captured a seat off the Conservatives at the Eastbourne by-election (caused by the assassination of Ian Gow by the IRA at the end of July) on 18 October. ![]() The event normally seen as the 'final straw' in the run-up to the contest is the resignation of the Deputy Prime Minister, Sir Geoffrey Howe, on 1 November. This was a response to comments by Thatcher in the House of Commons on 31 October, when she criticised the vision of European integration, including a Single Currency, espoused by the European Commission under Jacques Delors, characterising it as the path to a federal European superstate, and famously declared that her response to such a vision would be "No. No. No" (In June 1990 Chancellor Major had suggested that the proposed Single European Currency should be a "hard ecu", competing for use against existing national currencies; this idea was not in the end adopted). Howe did not make his resignation speech immediately because he had temporarily lost his voice. At the Lord Mayor's Banquet on 12 November Thatcher dismissed Howe's resignation by employing a cricketing metaphor: I am still at the crease, though the bowling has been pretty hostile of late. And in case anyone doubted it, can I assure you there will be no ducking the bouncers, no stonewalling, no playing for time. The bowling's going to get hit all round the ground. That is my style. ![]() The next day, Howe made his resignation speech from the backbenches, addressing his dismay at her approach and, famously responding to Thatcher's cricketing metaphor by employing one of his own. Explaining how, in his opinion, her approach made it hard for British ministers to negotiate for Britain's interests in Europe he declared: It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain. Howe reinforced the change in general perception of Thatcher from the 'Iron Lady' to a divisive and confrontational figure. Within a week, another critic, former minister Michael Heseltine, had announced that he would challenge her for the leadership of the party. ![]() Under the rules at the time, introduced in 1965 and modified in 1975, there would be a series of ballots, conducted by the 1922 Committee, with that committee's chairman, Cranley Onslow, serving as Returning Officer. In the first round a candidate needed to win the backing of an absolute majority of MPs. In addition they needed to have a margin over their nearest rival of 15% of the total electorate. This latter rule had been modified from 15% of those voting in the 1975 review and was to prove a crucial distinction in the 1990 contest when Margaret Thatcher narrowly missed this new target. If neither candidate achieved a sufficiently large majority, then a second ballot would take place the following week. Nominations would be re-opened, and at this stage an absolute majority only would be required. If this did not happen, then the top three candidates would go forward to a third round which would be held using the alternative vote system. Because of this process, the first round was widely regarded as the real test of confidence in Thatcher. Many speculated that, if she did not achieve outright victory, then she would either be forced to step down and open up the field to others or else suffer further challenges from heavyweight figures in the party. Although Heseltine was known to be a serious contender for the leadership in his own right, many saw him also fulfilling the role of a "stalking horse" to push Thatcher out and pave the way for victory by a third candidate in a later round. First ballot The first ballot in the election took place on Tuesday 20 November 1990. Thatcher herself was at the Fontainebleau European summit on the night of the contest and therefore voted by proxy, perhaps anticipating a better result than she actually achieved. Margaret Thatcher 204 votes 53.8% Michael Heseltine 152 votes 40.1% Abstentions 6. 1.6% Void Spoilt 17. 4.5% Majority 52. 13.7% Turnout 379 Although receiving the support of a clear majority of MPs, Thatcher narrowly failed to achieve a lead over Heseltine that comprised at least 15% of the number of all Conservative MPs, abstentions and spoilt ballots included. (Had the contest been run on the pre 1975 rules, she would have won outright at this stage.) The contest therefore had to move into a second ballot. Thatcher gave a short statement in Paris following the announcement of the result, declaring that she intended to contest the second ballot, and on her return to London declared "I fight on; I fight to win." ![]() Hurd and Major pledged their support, as did Cecil Parkinson, Kenneth Baker and ex-Cabinet minister Nicholas Ridley. Norman Tebbit, another ex-Cabinet minister, was part of her campaign team, along with John Wakeham. Thatcher's campaign manager, Peter Morrison, advised her to consult Cabinet members one by one. Cabinet ministers had decided before consulting Thatcher the line they would each take: though they personally would support her in the second ballot, they thought that she would lose. Peter Lilley, William Waldegrave, John Gummer and Chris Patten stuck to this line. Kenneth Clarke, the Secretary of State for Education, famously became the first of her ministers to advise her that she could not win but that he would support her as Prime Minister for another five or ten years. Malcolm Rifkind said she would not win and was unsure whether he could support her in the second ballot. Peter Brooke said he would support Thatcher whatever she chose to do and that she could win "with all guns blazing". Michael Howard doubted whether she could win but said he would campaign full-heartedly for her. ![]() Enoch Powell announces that he will rejoin the party – which he had left in February 1974 over the issue of Europe – if Thatcher wins, and would urge the public to support both her and, in Powell's view, national independence. He writes to one of Thatcher's supporters, Norman Tebbit, telling him Thatcher was entitled to use his name and his support in any way she saw fit. ![]() Second ballot The second round of voting would take place on Tuesday 27 November 1990. Thatcher decides to fight on and at the behest of Norman Tebbit, Neil Hamilton and others phones round a large number of Conservative MP’s to tally support. ![]() The result Margaret Thatcher 224 votes Michael Heseltine 153 votes Abstentions 1. Void Spoilt 2. Majority 71 Turnout 379 Thatcher was still Conservative party leader but Heseltine and the Tory left still had a great deal of support. Thatcher’s first thoughts would now turn to increasing her support in the cabinet. As the month ended opinion polls still had the Conservatives behind Labour by 8%. Lab – 46% Con – 38% Lib – 12% ![]() Last edited by cumbria; September 20th, 2010 at 06:32 PM.. |
|
#2
|
|||
|
|||
|
I must say only one other person has done this and that's RB but by the look of your title it seems it will diverge heavily from his tale.
So Thatcher has gotten a lifeline but she will need to use everything she has if she wants to finish Thatcherism for Britain and using Powell's image on the far right could help her with them but it could get rid of the others. |
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
|
Actually, BG and I might reopen ours in the future. But by all means, continue with this TL, since it will probably take a different path. Subscribed.
![]()
__________________
|
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Ill read the first one. Do you have a link? |
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
|
Awesome.
I hope the Conservatives eliminate that 8 point deficit and stay in power. The more Thatcher the better. ![]()
__________________
Say What?!: A President Barry Goldwater Timeline 2.0 I Me Mine: A Beatles Timeline |
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Part 2 December 1990 Channel Tunnel workers from the United Kingdom and France meet 40 meters beneath the English Channel seabed, establishing the first land connection between the United Kingdom and the mainland of Europe for around 8,000 years. ![]() The CBI predicts that the recession will last longer than predicted, and that GDP is likely to fall by at least 1% in 1991. Enoch Powell makes front page headlines across Britain when he announces he is re-joining the Conservative Party. Margaret Thatcher tells the media she would like to see Powell in the cabinet. This in turn brings condemnation from Michael Heseltine and Education Secretary Ken Clark. Powell attends Downing Street for a meeting with Thatcher. He advised Thatcher to fight the next general election on a nationalist theme as many Eastern European nations previously under Russian rule were gaining their freedom. Powell said that the government should admit the poll tax was "a disaster" and that what mattered most to the people was the question of who should govern Britain and that only the Conservative Party was advocating that the British should govern themselves. After the meeting he stated to the press "I find myself today less on the fringe of that party than I have done for 20 years". Thatcher dismisses Clarke from his position which he had held for less than a month and offers Norman Tebbit the post of Secretary of State of Education and Science. Tebbit had been offered this role before but had refused it on the grounds he was looking after his wife who was seriously injured in the IRA bombing of the Conservative party conference. ![]() However he had said he would return to politics if Thatcher really needed him. He accepts. Tebbit is also keen to see Enoch Powell in the cabinet. Thatcher suggests he will get his chance with David Waddington being made a Baron his old seat in the Conservative stronghold of Ribble Valley will be available. The by-election will be brought forward as soon as possible. It is to be suggested to the local Conservative Association that Enoch Powell should be the candidate. ![]() Private objections on Tebbit and in particular Powell returning to frontline politics come from John Major, Malcolm Rifkind and Michael Howard. ![]() 6 December - - Saddam Hussein announces that all British hostages in Iraq are to be released. - House price inflation has returned and stands at 0.2% for November, the first year-on-year rise in house prices since February. 8 December - The UK grinds to a halt following heavy snow overnight. Large parts of the country are without power after snowfall brings down power lines, disrupting the electricity supply. Many rural areas are cut off for several days, while the Army is called out to help restore power. There is grim news for the retail industry as a CBI survey reports that retail sales have hit a standstill and High Street employment will fall. The first British hostages in Iraq released by Saddam Hussein arrive back in the UK. Thatcher speaks in Parliament of Britain’s problems all stemming from Europe. This causes outrage among the left wing press and some of her own cabinet. While 59% of the British public polled for The Independent by Number Market Research agreed with Thatcher's opposition to monetary union, 64% were of the opinion that she needed to retire. Norman Tebbit suggests Britain should leave the EEC and re-join the European Free Trade Association. This is an option that is support by much of the press. Enoch Powell announces he would also support the move but would prefer Britain to be outside both. ![]() An era ends in the Rhondda, South Wales, when the last coalmine closes after more than 100 years of heavy coalmining in the region. 300 miners have lost their jobs and just seventeen will remain employed in the industry elsewhere. 25 December - Storms on Christmas Day leave more than 100,000 British homes without power. 26 December - The fatwa (order to kill) against Satanic Verses author Salman Rushdie is upheld by AyatollahAli Khamenei, more than one year after it was first issued. Rushdie is still living in hiding. 27 December - The latest MORI poll shows that Conservative support has been boosted by the arrival of Enoch Powell into prominent circles of the Conservative Party and with Norman Tebbit returning to the cabinet, with his party now just four points behind Labour - eight months after Labour had peaked with a 23-point lead. 29 December - Leading economists warn that the recession creeping upon Britain will deepen during 1991 and unemployment is likely to increase to well over 2,000,000 from the current total of over 1,700,000. ![]() Last edited by cumbria; September 24th, 2010 at 05:21 PM.. |
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
|
The problem with both of your timelines so far is a distinct lack of realism. You decide what you want, and then just force it through.
Powell, in the cabinet, in 1990, is laughable. He's 78 years old! Now, never let it be said that age should be a bar, but at this point in his life I do not expect he will be playing much part in government. As to Thatcher surviving. It's possible, but let's be quite honest. If she did win, she'd plow on to certain defeat at the polls in the summer of 1991 (when you want the election to be) with Kinnock taking over as PM and a Labour government for the next few years. Why don't we just cut to the chase. I'll pan out the rest of the timeline for you in advance: 1. Another election in 1991. By some miracle, the Conservatives win. 2. Labour fractures at this point, preferably into 16 mini parties, so it can never win again. 3. Best do the same with the Lib Dems too. 4. The Conservatives win the next four elections, leaving the EC. Thatcher remains as leader until 2007, when she stands aside for her chosen successor, Iain Duncan Smith.... or someone else equally hard right wing. Maybe Hague, depends on how you feel about them. 5. The British public accepts all this with good grace and full support of the government. 6. The economy roars off into the sunset. Public spending is massively increased, but luckily, just like Gordon Brown hoped, no deficit is ever run, no debt ever taken and infact by 2009, Britain has such a large surplus the whole world owes it billions of pounds. Sound about right? |
|
#8
|
||||||||||
|
||||||||||
|
Quote:
Quote:
But Thatcher is quite aware of how Powell's popularity can help her. Quote:
Thatcher faced very large polls deficits before the 1983 and 1987 election. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
|
|
#9
|
|||
|
|||
|
This is how I assume the EEC will go if Thatcher can just survive 1992 election.
She holds a referendum on the treaty and the NO campaign wins much to the left wingers anger. Using that she passes a law that requires any power change from Parliament to Brussels to be decided by referendum. After that she resigns and Labour wins 1997 because it was just going to happen. Good job so far ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
|
If the Gulf conflict continues as per OTL, Thatcher and the tories would win the 92 Election on a second burst of "Falklands Spirit", as Major did OTL.
Other than that, I can't see a huge amount of change. Tories out in 97, with Tony Blair in. Thatcher staying on is unlikely to change much if anything. Labour will continue on a "Tory Sleaze" theme, but if she stays in the commons, even as a back bencher, Mandelson will get one shot, any attempt to rehabilitate him will result in her lambasting (new?) Labour for hypocracy and stating that at least when Conservative ministers resign in disgrace, they have the good manners to remember this and stay there, not wheedle their way back hoping everyone has forgotten their misdeeds.
__________________
It is not neccessary to change, survival is not mandatory |
|
#11
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
|
#12
|
|||
|
|||
|
well if Neil Kinnock loose the election you have a leadership election maybe Gordon Brown or Robin Cook raise to fight John Smith for leadership, even if they don't (or if John beats one or the other) Smith will still die in 1994 and we could see Blair V. Brown in that election, personally I'd like to see PM Beckett by the way
__________________
Ideology without action is just masturbation. |
|
#13
|
|||
|
|||
|
If they could, then yes, and I suspect he would be quite popular as well.
__________________
It is not neccessary to change, survival is not mandatory |
|
#14
|
|||
|
|||
|
Smith had a major heart attack in 1988 which left him in the ICU for 20 days and out of Parliament for 3 months, the only reason he didn't die in 88 was he had his heart attack in a doctors office, in 1994 he was doing everything right for his body and he was still dropped I do not think a 1990 POD will save him, he has a bum heart end of story.
__________________
Ideology without action is just masturbation. |
|
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Part 3 Early – Mid January 1991. 3 January - The UK expels all Iraqi diplomats from the country due to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait five months ago. 5 January - 27 people die as a result of gale force winds across Britain. 7 January - Enoch Powell returns to Parliament at the Ribble Valley by-election defeating Michael Carr of the Liberal Democrats by 5,000 votes. 8 January - A train crash at Cannon Street station in London kills one person and injures over 500. 9 January – A Daily Express poll shows Enoch Powell to be the most popular politician in the country. 10 January - Margaret Thatcher greets Enoch Powell as he arrives at Downing Street for another meeting. ![]() This meeting will include would also include Norman Tebbit. Powell: If you wish to win this election Prime Minister you must fight it on an anti-EEC agenda. Thatcher: I am increasingly worried about the encroaching power of the EEC as you are Enoch, but what of our trade? Powell: Our trade will still remain the EEC would not dare negotiate a free trade agreement with us since they sell more to us than we to them. Tebbit: We could re-join EFTA. Powell: I would prefer Britain to stand on its own two feet Norman. Thatcher: We do not wish to scare the horses Enoch so I think we will have to go with the EFTA option. I myself would favour a trade agreement with the United States, Canada and perhaps Australia. Tebbit: Another interesting option for us. Powell: I would be against membership of any trade body that included the United States of America, a nation that has betrayed us and opposed consistently since the war. Thatcher: Nonsense Enoch the USA is our greatest ally and we are bound to engage in a major conflict against Iraq with them mainly at our behest. Powell: It is good to see we are again showing our power Prime Minister but if we must go for one option I would favour EFTA as it is an organisation that is already set up and which we were members of before. Tebbit: Perhaps for the moment Prime Minister this would be the best option. Thatcher: Leaving the EEC may well be a vote winner in the next election if the polls we saw on the subject are anything to go by in November. But such a move may well cost us a few members of the Cabinet and divide the party. Thatcher: This is what I fear. What was the poll result? Tebbit: 59% of the British public polled for The Independent agreed with your opposition to monetary union. Powell: It is clear the EEC is moving towards a single currency and a single state so it would be most logical for us to leave and re-join EFTA if as you said in 1988 “the EEC should be limited to ensuring free trade and effective competition”. Thatcher: Can we carry the country on this Norman? Tebbit: I believe we can Prime Minister but we made need some other populist policies to help us towards such a victory. Powell: The abandoning of the Community Charge (Poll Tax) would be the most logical move Prime Minister. Thatcher: No Enoch we are completely committed to keeping that tax. Powell: As the party of low taxation we then appear to have brought in a tax that means 70% of the population now pay more than they did under the ratings system. Thatcher: The tax will stay Enoch: Powell: I have no objection in principles to a flat local level of taxation Prime Minister but just at a lower rate. Thatcher: and how will we pay for that? Powell: Perhaps something that you should go over with the cabinet. Thatcher: We have discussed this numerous times with the cabinet. Powell: A flat local income tax at a much lower rate could be paid for in numerous ways. Leaving the EEC, leaving NATO, Ending immigration, reforming local government. Thatcher: Leaving NATO is not an option but I will the cabinet to look at immigration reform. I’m not sure it would be wise to meddle with local government again. Tebbit: It would be a way of reducing the power of left wing local authorities and increasing our control Prime Minister. Plus we could re-establish the traditional counties. Powell: This would be a vote winner. Thatcher: Ill bring this up with the cabinet as soon as possible. 11 January - As the recession deepens, 335 workers at the Peugeot car factory in Coventry are made redundant while Ford is looking for up to 1,000 voluntary redundancies at its British factories. Thousands of jobs in the financial services factor are reportedly at threat, as the total UK unemployment is currently standing at nearly 1,800,000 but is expected to rise to well over 2,000,000 by the end of the year. ![]() 12 January – British cabinet meeting. Thatcher: I have decided to fight the next election on a platform of withdrawal from the EEC and to re-join EFTA. Ken Clarke: I could not in anyway support that Prime Minister. Thatcher: I do not see what the department of Health has to do with such a decision! Clarke: This is a decision which would effect the whole country. I can not support it. John Major: This would be a grave error Prime Minister the soundness of our economy depends on EEC membership. Thatcher: Well apart from that being false as we see more to them, than they sell to us we much consider the implications of Britain’s sovereignty. Cecil Parkinson: I fully agree Prime Minister. Withdrawal is an excellent idea. Douglas Hurd: Nonsense this would put Britain back years. Thatcher: I don’t see our freedom as a nation being a set back do you Douglas? Hurd: This isn’t 1939 Prime Minister we have real economic issues to deal with here. Thatcher: I do not see the other members of EFTA having problems with their economies! Hurd: These economies are very minor players a major player like ourselves needs to be in the first team, namely the EEC. Thatcher: The EEC is far more than an organisation of free trade. It is fast becoming the new Soviet Union with its Socialist state control and increasing power over the British state. Clarke: This is most ridiculous Prime Minister as Douglas said this isn’t 1939. Thatcher: It is a good job many of you were not in government in 1939 or we in this room would all now be speaking German. We will be campaigning to leave the EEC at the next election and that will be the end of the matter. Hurd: If this is to be the case then you shall have my resignation. Tebbit: Then perhaps the Prime Minister will bring in Ministers who will put this country first. Thatcher: Put it on my desk in the morning Douglas. Clarke: This is outrageous Prime Minister. If Douglas resigns and his resignation is accepted then I too must offer mine. Thatcher: Very well. 13 January – Thatcher announces to the media that the next election will be fought on the principle of EEC withdrawal should a Conservative victory be achieved. The Daily Mail, Express and Star all immediately came out in support of EEC withdrawal. Thatcher accepts the resignation of Ken Clarke and Douglas Hurd. Both openly state Michael Heseltine should again challenge Thatcher as Conservative party leader. 14 January - Donald Coleman, Labour MP for Neath in South Wales, dies aged 65. 111 Conservative MP’s announce they will oppose Britain’s withdrawal from the EEC. Thatcher meets Rupert Murdoch to about EEC withdrawal. Murdoch decides he will put both sides of the argument for EEC withdrawal in his news papers but would not support either side as yet. 16 January - The final phase of the M40 motorway through Oxfordshire is opened, giving the West Midlands conurbation its first direct motorway link with London. 17 January - The Gulf War begins, as the Royal Air Force joins Allied aircraft in bombing raids on Iraq. Opinion polls show 52% of the British public support EEC withdrawal with 36% against and 12% undecided. 18 January - In spite of the deepening recession and division on Europe in the Conservative party a MORI places them still at just 3 points behind the Labour party. John Major private remarks on his opposition to EEC withdrawal are made public causing much embarrassment to the government. Enoch Powell makes a public call for his resignation. In the House Neil Kinnock attacks what he called a “divided right wing extremist rump that passes today as the Conservative party”. 19 January - It is announced that 1,844,000 people are now unemployed in the United Kingdom, and experts warn that the figure will exceed 2,000,000 before the end of the year. ![]() A major cabinet reshuffle takes place John Major was to be demoted to Foreign Secretary but resigned in protest before taking the position. He was replaced with Norman Lamont, Hurd left the Home Office and Clarke Health. With many of the left of the party now in open rebellion a host of Right wingers were promoted by Thatcher with full support from Norman Tebbit and Enoch Powell. Mainly Thatcherites but also a couple of Monday Clubbers as a sop to the Old Right to guarantee their support. Powell himself was brought into the cabinet as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. Cecil Parkinson was made Foreign Secretary. Tebbit was made Home Secretary. Other promotions included Michael Portillo to Transport, Francis Maude to Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Eric Forth to Education, Nicolas Ridley brought back to the cabinet and put in charge of Health, John Redwood to the Environment. ![]() Nicholas Winterton, Ann Winterton, Neil Hamilton, John Redwood, Edward Leigh, Michael Fallon and Rhodes Boyson were all also promoted but outside the cabinet to more junior roles.
![]() 20 January – Another poll after the cabinet re-shuffle and John Major’s resignation shows a slight dip in Conservative support to 5% points below Labour. The media conclude the return of Enoch Powell to the cabinet for the first time in over 20 years, the return of Norman Tebbit, plus the anti-EEC stance appear to be holding up Conservative support which would other wise be much lower. ![]() Last edited by cumbria; September 24th, 2010 at 05:21 PM.. |
|
#16
|
|||
|
|||
|
Was in a big rush here so didnt have chance to check everything.
May have to alter some things later. Will add more pictures too. |
|
#17
|
|||
|
|||
|
All seems good although things seem rushed not you but the EEC withdrawal.
Just one thing but can you give us a link to whatever source told us Powell was the most popular politician in the 90's as that was only true in the 70's which made the NF success believable in your other work. But shouldn't Major and Clarke try to convince the country not to leave the EEC (would love to see the dialogue). |
|
#18
|
|||
|
|||
|
|
|
#19
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
The alternative option would be to go for a win in a summer election then leave the EEC before the Maastricht treaty comes into force. But that would leave her with a even greater number of pro-EEC MP's and cabinet Ministers. Quote:
With only Thatcher, Churchill and Bevan higher. This indicates his popularity. Quote:
|
|
#20
|
|||
|
|||
|
To be completely honest I'm split into two about this as one says this is great and I love this, another is angry I won't see Churchill pwn Nassar but still this is as cool and amazing unlike Enochs National Front
![]() ![]() which is chilling and amazing.![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]() |
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
|
|