WI No Rain after Gettysburg

[John Fredrick Parker]

FTWDK*, after the third day of battle at Gettysburg, on July 4, it rained. Hard, about 1.4 inches. There slight showers on the 5th and the 7th, and on the 8th it rained in the morning, measuring 1.3 inches.

What if it stayed dry for at least, say, another week?

*yes, I am still using this acronym

[Thespitron 6000]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

FTWDK

"For the Win, Donkey Kong?"

Well, the ford at Williamsport wouldn't be flooded, so that's one thing. Maybe Meade would have been more aggressive--or less aggressive.

[wcv215]

Meade wasn't an aggressive general. That has a lot to do with why he won. That and the Confederates not taking the stupid hill the first day. So Lee probably would have escaped anyway but Meade wouldn't have had any excuse for not chasing him.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by wcv215

Meade wasn't an aggressive general. That has a lot to do with why he won. That and the Confederates not taking the stupid hill the first day. So Lee probably would have escaped anyway but Meade wouldn't have had any excuse for not chasing him.

Ewell takes the stupid hill (Culp's) on the first day and Gettysburg is a moderate Confederate victory, with XI and I Corps smashed for good. It also means Meade fights at Pipe Creek instead, like he had wanted to. A battle of Pipe Creek, with Lee's aggressiveness, means a disaster for Lee that will cost him half his army outright. Lee still escapes, but the Battle of the Wilderness isn't the great success Lee enjoyed IOTL, and Grant probably wins Spotsylvania Courthouse outright, routing Lee and winning the war right there.

[Rex Romanum]

Originally Posted by Thespitron 6000

"For the Win, Donkey Kong?"

I think it's "Fuck the Woman, Dark Knight!" (filler)

[MrP]

Originally Posted by Rex Romanum

I think it's "Fuck the Woman, Dark Knight!" (filler)

Fire The Weak, Dread King! Full Thirty Women Doth Know. Furious Ticks Wear Deadly Knives. Flippant Tinmen Wander Dangerously Kindly.

Perhaps you could put it on the ah slang page, old man.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Ahem, "For Those Who Don't Know"

Also, TBC*, the PoD is nothing more or earlier than the weather July 4. So the Greys still don't take Culp's hill the first day.

Also, Meade had told his generals he would make an attack the next day, on July 3; the weather nixed that.

*and before you get any ideas, that's "To Be Clear"

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

Ewell takes the stupid hill (Culp's) on the first day and Gettysburg is a moderate Confederate victory, with XI and I Corps smashed for good. It also means Meade fights at Pipe Creek instead, like he had wanted to. A battle of Pipe Creek, with Lee's aggressiveness, means a disaster for Lee that will cost him half his army outright. Lee still escapes, but the Battle of the Wilderness isn't the great success Lee enjoyed IOTL, and Grant probably wins Spotsylvania Courthouse outright, routing Lee and winning the war right there.

If things had gone differently in the Gettysburg campaign, butteflies would result in the Wilderness and Spotsylvania not having taken place at all.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Here's another thought -- if the Union is more aggressive and the ANV loses another 7,000 or more -- but Lee still escapes -- does Davis take him up on his resignation offer?

[Mikestone8]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

Here's another thought -- if the Union is more aggressive and the ANV loses another 7,000 or more -- but Lee still escapes -- does Davis take him up on his resignation offer?

I don't think he can. No one else has a tenth of the prestige.

Afaics, the only way Lee loses command is if his heart attack kills him.

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

Here's another thought -- if the Union is more aggressive and the ANV loses another 7,000 or more -- but Lee still escapes -- does Davis take him up on his resignation offer?

Originally Posted by Mikestone8

I don't think he can. No one else has a tenth of the prestige.

This is true, but shouldn't be overblown. Much of the Lee mystique is a product of Lost Cause mythology that emerged after the war. Lee was undoubtedly regarded as the best and most renowned Confederate general after Chancellorsville, but not the marble demigod he has since become.

[John Fredrick Parker]

So the ANV could lose something in the range of half or two thirds of it's forces -- the latter being more than plausible if the retreat to Virginia goes badly -- in a botched invasion of the North (Vicksburg still fell), offer to resign, and Davis still wouldn't accept?

What if Lee made a recommendation for a successor?

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

What if Lee made a recommendation for a successor?

Longstreet, I would imagine. Or perhaps bring Joe Johnston back?

[John Fredrick Parker]

Longstreet commanding the ANV would be pretty sweet

[Gustavus Adolphus]

[QUOTE=John Fredrick Parker;3605268]Longstreet commanding the ANV would be pretty sweet [/QUOTE


No.... Longstreet commanding the reb army means instant defeat for the Rebs or any other General because it was Lew who saw things through if he dies the confederate army loses morale, if he resigns they would he absoulutly crushed leading to annearlier end of the war. Remember in the South Lee was literally worshipped as the saviour of the confederacy.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Well, that gets to my next point -- assuming the ANV escapes to Virginia with something like 2/3 casualties, how much sooner would Richmond fall? Two possibilities here being Lee staying or leaving?

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by John Fredrick Parker

Well, that gets to my next point -- assuming the ANV escapes to Virginia with something like 2/3 casualties, how much sooner would Richmond fall?

That would depend on how badly the Army of the Potomac would have been damaged in this TL.

It would also greatly impact events in the Western theater, since it would be impossible for the Confederates to dispatch reinforcements to the Army of Tennessee as happened IOTL.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by Anaxagoras

That would depend on how badly the Army of the Potomac would have been damaged in this TL.

I'm thinking in the range of 50,000 total by the retreat's end, about 2/3 of Lee's forces. At least half...

It would also greatly impact events in the Western theater, since it would be impossible for the Confederates to dispatch reinforcements to the Army of Tennessee as happened IOTL.

Had not thought of that Chattanoga could be taken2-3 months earlier...

[John Fredrick Parker]

A lot of butterflies here -- thinking of combining it with a successful Fort Wagner seizure around this time.

[hcallega]

If Longstreet can't go to Chatanooga than Rosecrans is likely sucessfull in his Tulahooma Campaign in full, possibly pushing the Rebels into a situation where they fight on his turns. If the AT is defeated by the AOC, then it's also likely that Atlanta falls earlier, and that Grant never becomes head of the Union Army.

Therefore, if Meade is not as aggressive, than maybe Hancock becomes commander of the AOP. As far as a Northern Virginia campaign is concerned, it's probably going to be a disaster for the South if they only have 1/3 strength.