AHC:Estonia a major European player

As someone who through sheer randomness became interested in th country of Estonia I was wondering if it was possible to have estonia to become at least a medium size powerhouse in Europe. I know that for most of their history they were part of either Scandanavia or Russis but with a POD no earlier than Columbus discovering the new world is there a way for them to become independent and as stated become a Major Player in European politics

No or at least nothing we would think of as Estonian. But let try a little scenario. Estonia are interesting because while the other east Baltic tribes was conquered by the Teutonic knigths, Estonia was conquered by Danish crusaders, later it was permanent mortgaged to the Livonian Order by Valdemar IV of Denmark because all Danish territorium was mortgaged out at his crowning and he used the money to starting to buy Denmark back. But let imagine a sligthly different event, the main pawnbroaker was Counts of Holstein but after Count Gerhard was murdered by a pissed offed Danish noble for his behaviour in Denmark, the other pawnbroakers agreed to let Valdemar become king and slowly pay the mortgage off. So let imagine that Gerhard was less of a idiot and made a deal with his nephew Valdemar the ruler of the Danish Duchy of Sønderjylland/Schleswig (and for a short king of Denmark as Valdemar III) to trade his possesion for Nørrejylland (North Jutland) and Fuen. The emperor support it against both swearing loyalty to him. Valdemar (III) become Duke of Nørrejylland. Count John III of Holstein-Plön make the same deal with the Emperor and become Duke of Zealand and Scania. Valdemar (IV) as compensation are given a generous pension and Estonia are bougth back to him and he's raised to Duke of Estonia. Nothing happens the next few centuries in Estonia, the Dukes keep power and extent it against the nobles and Hansetic League and gain control over Tallinn/Reval which give them a good income. In a few wars they gain control over Norvograd raising their income. Suddenly the Reformation happens and it also hit the Livonian order, and the Duke of Estonia use the position to become monarchs of Livonia and Courland. They crown themself Kings of Estonia. Now we have a somewhat big Estonian state it control the Latvia, Estonia and the Tver, Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov Oblasts. Of course linguistic the people speak Latvian, Russian, Estonian, Finnish and German. The language of the elite and government are German and to lesser extent Russian in the former Norvogradian territories.

If Estonia could unite its tribes early, perhaps conquer the Livonians and Christianize they could become a Lithuania parallel, but perhaps more northwardly oriented (into Russia). If you want an unadultrated Estonian culture, the best might be a Baltics-wank where Estonia ends up with a huge chunk of it. It'd need a fairly early PoD however.