Sovietic, pro-Stalin Spain in the cold war.

The Republicans wins the civil war, not sure about the POD.

After the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, communist movements aligned with Moscow are banned and many underground communist cells are formed, many communists expected just such a move.
When Germany invades Poland, republican Spain joins the allies declares war to Germany, Hungarya and Slovakia following the UK.
In Januari 1940, Republican Spain invades Portugal. Case Yellow occures as IOTL, except for somewhat more extensive fighting, as IOTL Petain asking for an armistice.
The better segment of the Republican army was in north-eastern France at the start of case yellow, much of the remaining enter France after the start of Case Yellow and are defeated in south-western France.
When the Germans enters Spain, they mostly face draftees, who despite often giving a better fight than the French are beaten more easily because hey are less equipped.
By August, blitzkrieg have gone through much of the Iberic peninsula, in the course of September all resistance pockets are crushed.
Guerilla warfare follows, between July and August they cause some problems but between September 1940 and June 26th 1941 (start of TTL Barbarossa), most of the revolutionnary groupuscules are either exterminated, captured or marginalised.
The communists cells of of Spain and Portugal meanwhile, organised themselves further and learned the lessons from the demise of the other armed movements.
Between June 1941 and December 1941, communist movements starts taking action (signficant but not massive problem for the occupation) while the occupation forces fully engages in the elimination of all those they considere to be undesirable.
By summer 1942, Spain and Portugal are seen as Judenfrei by Berlin.
Communist resistance keeps growing and in late 43 or early 44, a communist revolution against the occupants allow the allies to establish a foothold in southern Spain and progress rapidly once the German lines are broken.
Either that or allies invasion occures in Normandie while the axis believes the attack will come against southern Spain.
At the end of WW2, Germany is divided pretty much like IOTL, although Yugoslavia gain more territorie from the Italians than historically and nearly half of Austria is occupied by the Red Army.


Spain and Portugal becomes the Iberian Union, which start its first 5 years plan in 1946. With Sovietic assistance, the plan is more successfull than the Soviet-Union´s own first 5 years plan.
Relations with the Soviet-Union only breaks down in 1959, then the Iberian Union focus on cooperation with Yugoslavia and China, relations with China are given priority hovewer. The Iberian Union still completes its 3rd 5 year plan successfully. Union newspapers and television start denouncing Krushnev as an assassin and alcoholic degenerate in the early 1960s, while the Union military command decides to solve an eventual overpopulation problem by colonizing former Portugese colonies and possibly conquering south africa.



Yesh, for things to continue as close as IOTL so long after the POD is indeed more unlikely than Seelöwe.
 
Last edited:
Wait a second it can collaborate either with Titoist Yugoslavia or Maoist China but not with both, Tito had warmer relations with Hruschev than with Mao, relations between Yugoslavia and China only warmed up after the death of Mao.
 
Good point, some relations with Yugoslavia, much more with China (join atomic bomb research).

What are the effects on France, at having a communist neighbour?
 
I don't think the Communists would be able to take over a state liberated to large degree by Western forces.

Postwar Spain might be much leftier than the rest of NATO, but it will still be a NATO state.
 
MerryPrankster is right, of course. Whoever ended up controlling Spain would be someone favored by US/UK, if not outright installed by them. Anybody think of any candidates? I wonder if the British, especially, might try for someone easier to work with than DeGaulle;).

I think the Spanish resistance would give the Germans severe headaches, given their experience in the Civil War.
 

Cook

Banned
The communists cells of of Spain and Portugal meanwhile, organised themselves further and learned the lessons from the demise of the other armed movements.
Between June 1941 and December 1941, communist actions quickly escalates while the occupation forces fully engages in the elimination of all those they considere to be undesirable.


December 1941 saw most people in occupied Europe believing Germany would win, and the best option was to find an accommodation with that fact.

For example; Partisan activity in the Balkans was just kicking off in November of 1942, and a lot of that was initially frustrated by allied efforts to support organisations other than the Communists.
 
No Stalinoid Republic Winning the Spanish Civil War

I'm glad to see folks trying PODs of Republican victory in the Civil War. I always thought the Republicans got a raw deal from the democracies in 1936. Part of it was the anticlerical movement's excesses and atrocities that got so much press.
The crushing irony of the SCW is that the more the Communists got involved, the worse things got. Sure, more arms showed up and you got lots of foreign volunteers with the International Brigades, but ultimately Soviet involvement was disastrous both politically and militarily for the Republic.
Internally, the purges of the POUM/Anarchists gutted morale and local support for the Republic and externally, the Soviets' overt involvement crushed the chances of anyone else helping the Republic.
Also, the Soviet insistence on centralized control of maneuver warfare in infantry country with inadequate comms, coordination of forces, and arty/air support spelled disaster. Also, it didn't help that the IB and Assault Guards units got the best gear but were Communist-dominated and regarded with intense suspicion by the rest of the Republican units.
I've read Homage to Catalonia, and Orwell makes it clear that the Soviets improved discipline at the cost of everything else.
Sure, before the Sovs showed up, you had the Republican Army providing cadre for an anthill mob of political militias providing 75-80% of the bodies
who were a nightmare to coordinate with a motley assortment of obsolete and third-hand equipment, scant ammo, etc. The Republican Army had some sorting out to do, but their weaponry and tactics were WWI static defense that did OK against the Falange and Italian units, but not so great against the German Blitzkrieg. The Soviets didn't have any answers for that either. That's one big reason why the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact happened. The Red Army's best gear, tactics, etc were no match for blitzkrieg facing very long odds at arm's length. So, Stalin opted to sit it out, build up his strength, and make some coin selling supplies to Germany.
It pains me as an American to admit this, but the French under Leon Blum's Socialist government were about the Republic's best hope, that and/or no international arms embargo imposed by the LON so the Republic would have the gear and supplies to go on the offensive.
Add in a capable Foreign Minister who could spin Republican Spain as the bulwark against the tide of fascism and thus get substantial help from the UK, France, the US, et al.
It's not that the Republicans couldn't have won, just that they started off so far behind the eight-ball. The Soviets didn't help. So for me, a Stalinoid Republican Spain winning the SCW is 99.7% ASB.
 

Cook

Banned
The Republican Army had some sorting out to do, but their weaponry and tactics were WWI static defense that did OK against the Falange and Italian units, but not so great against the German Blitzkrieg. The Soviets didn't have any answers for that either. That's one big reason why the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact happened.

Blitzkrieg played no part in the Spanish Civil War, the idea was still being developed.

Molotov-Ribbentrop was because it had become apparent to Stalin that the western Democracies were not going to fight Hitler and he would do better to cut a deal. Ironically he did this just as the democracies had finally discovered a backbone and began preparing t o face Hitler.

The Italians were conducting unrestricted submarine warfare against Spanish Republican and Soviet Shipping in the Mediterranean during the Spanish Civil war, preventing the Republicans receiving much in the way of Soviet direct aid.
 
No Stalinoid Republic Winning the Spanish Civil War?

That have already been done, done and redone.


Thread point includes that the Spanish republic isn´t communist-dominated after the victory against the nationalist coup.

The armies of the 3rd Reich during WW2 are the ones clearing the way for communist takeover, by taking care of the other political groups. Why? Because they took part in the pro-war coalition then tried to mount guerilla operation against the occupiers. After, the axis start loosing and the heavy-handed methods of the occupiers turn much of the local populations against itself.

Ironically he did this just as the democracies had finally discovered a backbone and began preparing t o face Hitler.

It really is the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that made the colonial powers decide to oppose Hitler. Before it, they hoped Hitler would fight against the communists for them. Afterward, in their perception at least, Hitler would turn westward since he couldn´t turn eastward. :p

Link
 
Last edited:

Cook

Banned
It really is the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that made the colonial powers decide to oppose Hitler. Before it, they hoped Hitler would fight against the communists for them. Afterward, in their perception at least, Hitler would turn westward since he couldn´t turn eastward.

You seem to be chronologically confused.

Hitler started making demands on Poland following the dismemberment of the rump Czechoslovakia. In response Britain and France issued a joint guarantee of Polish territory on 31 March 1939.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was signed on the 23 August 1939.
 
Completely ASB, there's no way a nation liberated by Western Allies would go communist, it will go the same way as France/Belgium/Netherlands/Italy/Others. Another thing that makes no sense to me is why did Spain invade Portugal? A nation that was historically a friend of the UK and in no way allied with Germany.

It really is the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that made the colonial powers decide to oppose Hitler. Before it, they hoped Hitler would fight against the communists for them. Afterward, in their perception at least, Hitler would turn westward since he couldn´t turn eastward.

Wow... you really have no idea what you're talking about, do you?
 
In OTL the italian communists were infinitely more and better organized than the spanish, had suffered exactly the same scenario you describe and were able to get direct soviet support through Yugoslavia. How come we didn't have a People's Republic of Italy but a communist Spain is taken as granted?
 
Top