AHC: Axis wins WW2...with a catch.

Your challenge is simple: Have the Axis powers (or at least Germany, Italy, and Germany's client states) win the war with the latest possible POD.

Winning is defined as either a real victory or a negotiated peace in which the Axis controls most of continental Europe, at the very minimum stretching from Alsace-Lorraine and the Low Countries to Belarus and Ukraine.
 
The negotiated peace is the hardest part. Usually in Axis wins WW2 you have a armed to hell USA-UK ready for round 2 once they get enough Nukes.
 
Your challenge is simple: Have the Axis powers (or at least Germany, Italy, and Germany's client states) win the war with the latest possible POD.

Winning is defined as either a real victory or a negotiated peace in which the Axis controls most of continental Europe, at the very minimum stretching from Alsace-Lorraine and the Low Countries to Belarus and Ukraine.

Cough cough, half of the BW tl directory cough cough ;)
 

Eurofed

Banned
PoD needs to be in early 1943 at the latest, but it helps if it can be just after Stalingrad, so the Axis can spare more resources.

I'll use a couple PoD for simplicity, but it could be done just using either:

(PoD 1) Immediately after the start of Uranus, Hitler has an epiphany and decides to listen to Manstein, he authorizes a retreat from Stalingrad and writes off North Africa as a lost cause. The Sixth Army breaks free from Stalingrad when Manstein makes the rescue offensive, the Axis forces pull back to the Donetz only losing the forces that were disintegrated in the initial Soviet offensive, Manstein makes his counteroffensive and stabilizes the front. Hitler and Mussolini don't send any additional troops to Tunisia, Torch and Motgomery eventually encircle and destroy the Afrika Korps but no toehr troops are lost and they are used to defend Sicily.

(PoD 2) The anti-Nazi coup in March 1943 succeeds because the bomb in Hitler's plane works: the Heer takes over with limited difficulty by telling Germany that Hitler was killed by Nazi radicals, the SS mostly surrender without a fight or obey the generals as in Valkyrie. The Italian Army overthrow Mussolini soon afterwards as well. The new governments decide to ask the Allies a compromise peace, if they refuse, they shall apply a strategy to spare the Axis' residual strength and wear the Allies down. They do, so they go for an attrition war.

In Russia, they discard Zitadelle and adopt elastic defense and Manstein's Backhand Blow. It works, and Stalin loses a whole army group in the failed summer offensives, while the Germans spare the bulk of their strength.

In Sicily, thanks to the additional troops, the Allied landing is a bloody failure. Roosevelt pressures for rushing Overlord, despite Churchill's misgivings.

In Fall 1943, the Soviets keep suffering horrible losses, while the Germans lose relatively little ground and Stalin starts to stare the exhaustion of Soviet manpower reserves in the face, with a still strong Wehrmacht deep in oviet territory. He decides to cut his losses and makes a compromise peace with Germany, accepting the Dnieper border. Germany can transfer some forces to France and Italy.

In Spring 1944, a rushed Overlord meets a stronger Gwrman defense and becomes another bloodbath failure. The American electorate says Roosevelt "£$%& you and your war in Europe, it's an hopeless cause, let's focus on Japan", and he loses the election to an isolationist Republican candidate (Taft or Vandenberg, probably) running on a "Japan only" platform, while Churchill is overthrown by a vote of no confidence. The public doesn't have any idea the nukes are coming, and doesn't want to lose any more sons on seemingly hopeless attacks on Fortress Europe, now that the Soviets bailed out.

In Fall 1944, The Western Allies and the EuroAxis sign a peace treaty that leaves the latter in control of continental Europe. Japan is nuked on schedule, but Axis Europe is not because they are already at peacewith America, there is an isolationist President in the White House who doesn't care too much if continental Europe is ruled by a German junta, and the same reasons apply why America didn't nuke the Soviet Union during the early Cold War. Say hello to a tripolar Cold War (but Hitler is dead, so Slavs under Axis rule don't fare too bad).
 
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PoD needs to be in early 1943 at the latest, but it helps if it can be just after Stalingrad, so the Axis can spare more resources.

I'll use a couple PoD for simplicity, but it could be done just using either:

(PoD 1) Immediately after the start of Uranus, Hitler has an epiphany and decides to listen to Manstein, he authorizes a retreat from Stalingrad and writes off North Africa as a lost cause. The Sixth Army breaks free from Stalingrad when Manstein makes the rescue offensive, the Axis forces pull back to the Donetz only losing the forces that were disintegrated in the initial Soviet offensive, Manstein makes his counteroffensive and stabilizes the front. Hitler and Mussolini don't send any additional troops to Tunisia, Torch and Motgomery eventually encircle and destroy the Afrika Korps but no toehr troops are lost and they are used to defend Sicily.

(PoD 2) The anti-Nazi coup in March 1943 succeeds because the bomb in Hitler's plane works: the Heer takes over with limited difficulty by telling Germany that Hitler was killed by Nazi radicals, the SS mostly surrender without a fight or obey the generals as in Valkyrie. The Italian Army overthrow Mussolini soon afterwards as well. The new governments decide to ask the Allies a compromise peace, if they refuse, they shall apply a strategy to spare the Axis' residual strength and wear the Allies down. They do, so they go for an attrition war.

In Russia, they discard Zitadelle and adopt elastic defense and Manstein's Backhand Blow. It works, and Stalin loses a whole army group in the failed summer offensives, while the Germans spare the bulk of their strength.

In Sicily, thanks to the additional troops, the Allied landing is a bloody failure. Roosevelt pressures for rushing Overlord, despite Churchill's misgivings.

In Fall 1943, the Soviets keep suffering horrible losses, while the Germans lose relatively little ground and Stalin starts to stare the exhaustion of Soviet manpower reserves in the face, with a still strong Wehrmacht deep in oviet territory. He decides to cut his losses and makes a compromise peace with Germany, accepting the Dnieper border. Germany can transfer some forces to France and Italy.

In Spring 1944, a rushed Overlord meets a stronger Gwrman defense and becomes another bloodbath failure. The American electorate says Roosevelt "£$%& you and your war in Europe, it's an hopeless cause, let's focus on Japan", and he loses the election to an isolationist Republican candidate (Taft or Vandenberg, probably) running on a "Japan only" platform, while Churchill is overthrown by a vote of no confidence. The public doesn't have any idea the nukes are coming, and doesn't want to lose any more sons on seemingly hopeless attacks on Fortress Europe, now that the Soviets bailed out.

In Fall 1944, The Western Allies and the EuroAxis sign a peace treaty that leaves the latter in control of continental Europe. Japan is nuked on schedule, but Axis Europe is not because they are already at peacewith America, there is an isolationist President in the White House who doesn't care too much if continental Europe is ruled by a German junta, and the same reasons apply why America didn't nuke the Soviet Union during the early Cold War. Say hello to a tripolar Cold War (but Hitler is dead, so Slavs under Axis rule don't fare too bad).

That's pretty good, but I don't think FDR -- knowing about Manhattan -- would have signed any peace treaty with Germany. That would have to wait until after January 20, 1945 -- and you'd have to have elected someone so isolationist that they'd sign a peace treaty even after being informed about Manhattan. If Normandy was bad enough, that just might lead to a bad political situation after it becomes known that we had the bomb in development and settled on a peace treaty anyway. It would take a pretty extreme isolationist to know about Manhattan and to, in the face of that knowledge, go ahead and consign Europe to the Germans. And after that tripolar Cold War ended, the US would be hated in Western Europe and trusted by nobody.
 
POD #1, Autumn, 1941. Hitler is convinced to accept the Ukrainians as cannon fodder. He also abandons North Africa, and transfers all available forces to Russia. The extra forces enable him to take Moscow weeks before the Siberian reinforcements arrive.

POD #2, December 8, 1941. Instead of joining the Japanese by declaring war against the US, Hitler reproves them for not attacking Russia in Siberia instead, and declares a non-belligerent status against the United States. He also, through private channels, approaches the UK about a cease-fire. He's ceased to be a threat against the British Middle East, and reins in Mussolini in North Africa. He publicly offers the UK a guarantee that the Reich will not attempt to attack British interests in the Middle East or South Asia. Churchill says "no", but Parliament says "yes". Now it is just Germany against Russia, with no forces significantly tied up anywhere else, and Ukrainian troops as well.

POD #3, Stalingrad, Summer of 1942. Instead of attempting to capture Stalingrad, it is encircled and the Wehrmacht moves on beyond it. It is bombed constantly, but no German troops attempt to enter the city. When the Winter of 1942 arrives, the Germans are well situated in defensive positions all around the city.

From their positions in Moscow, and east of Stalingrad, the Germans build Luftwaffe forward bases and mount constant sorties of Stukas and other light and medium bombers to attack and destroy all Russian railroad bridges, terminals, and rolling stock. The miracles of production the Russians manage in their factories east of the Urals do them little good, as they cannot move that equipment to the front for use.

The Wehrmacht institutes a policy of humane treatment for all captured Russian prisoners, including massive anti-communist indoctrination. Major propaganda efforts are mounted to convince the Russians that it's all Stalin's fault, and that conscripted troops, especially troops from the Asian republics, will be welcomed if they surrender and will be helped by the Germans to free the Asian republics from the USSR. Germany even sends food shipments from the Ukraine to the Asian republics.

By 1944, factions in the Red Army assassinate Stalin, and sue for peace.
 

Eurofed

Banned
That's pretty good, but I don't think FDR -- knowing about Manhattan -- would have signed any peace treaty with Germany. That would have to wait until after January 20, 1945 -- and you'd have to have elected someone so isolationist that they'd sign a peace treaty even after being informed about Manhattan. If Normandy was bad enough, that just might lead to a bad political situation after it becomes known that we had the bomb in development and settled on a peace treaty anyway. It would take a pretty extreme isolationist to know about Manhattan and to, in the face of that knowledge, go ahead and consign Europe to the Germans. And after that tripolar Cold War ended, the US would be hated in Western Europe and trusted by nobody.

Your first point is actually good, so let's say that peace between the EuroAxis and the Western Allies is signed in February-March 1945. About the rest, remind that an isolationist President and Congress would get elected in Nov. 1944 with a platform to end war with Europe. The new President wouldn't have the political capital to immediately renege on his platform and spend half a year or so before nukes become available (moreover, up to Trinity, nobody really knows if they are going to work). Even if he would, an isolationist Congress would squeeze his balls into compliance. Moreover, isolationist Republicans like Taft and Vanderberg didn't really care about Europe, they were all for returning to traditional American disinterest of European squabbles, they opposed NATO, so they aren't going to care if the Heer rules Europe. And America would go on and build its sphere of influence in Asia, China would become what Europe is today for America.
 
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Any one of the several assassination attempts against Hitler and top Nazi/SS officials actually happens. The Army and the bureaucrats take control of the Party/State apparatus, and sue for Peace with the Western Allies, with the condition that they pull out of France (or at least Paris).

Remember, in the minds of many in the West at this time, the Nazis were bad, but the Soviets were worse. For a lot of officials and military types during this period, working with the USSR to take down the Axis was a deal with the devil. Minus Hitler and some of the other crazy-types in Germany, the Western Allies would have no problem throwing the commies under the bus.
 
Uh... what's the catch?

(but Hitler is dead, so Slavs under Axis rule don't fare too bad).

I've explained many times before that with all the good intentions in the world (and I doubt they had too many) the new government can neither magic food into existence nor magic the partisans - the undoubtedly Moscow-backed partisans - out of it. You thought Vietnam was messy...
 
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(PoD 1) Immediately after the start of Uranus, Hitler has an epiphany and decides to listen to Manstein, he authorizes a retreat from Stalingrad and writes off North Africa as a lost cause. The Sixth Army breaks free from Stalingrad when Manstein makes the rescue offensive, the Axis forces pull back to the Donetz only losing the forces that were disintegrated in the initial Soviet offensive, Manstein makes his counteroffensive and stabilizes the front. Hitler and Mussolini don't send any additional troops to Tunisia, Torch and Motgomery eventually encircle and destroy the Afrika Korps but no toehr troops are lost and they are used to defend Sicily.
How fo they ''only lose forces that already disintegrated extactly?'' In this POD the Germans arnt being slowly driven back along the front, they're running. Morale is a factor here. There is every change that Germans forces are more open to attack while running than OTL.

(PoD 2) The anti-Nazi coup in March 1943 succeeds because the bomb in Hitler's plane works: the Heer takes over with limited difficulty by telling Germany that Hitler was killed by Nazi radicals, the SS mostly surrender without a fight or obey the generals as in Valkyrie. The Italian Army overthrow Mussolini soon afterwards as well. The new governments decide to ask the Allies a compromise peace, if they refuse, they shall apply a strategy to spare the Axis' residual strength and wear the Allies down. They do, so they go for an attrition war.
Limited difficulty? No I wont stand for the tired old face saving coup BS, Hitler was a military amateur but a lot of mistakes were made by his generals too. Also without Hitler’s driving will and charismatic leadership to stiffen spines and rally the German people. Combined with the sudden massive retreats on Eastern Front mean the German public's morale will decline and war-weariness will increase exponentially. A junta will be also rather unstable as well, which could lead to some serious open or backroom infighting, while the situation on all fronts deteriorates as the Allies smell blood.

So the only ''compramise peace'' the junta would get is Germany agreeing to pull back to it's pre-Nazi borders. Nothing else will happen short of the Germans bleeding all the Allied powers white, or Stalin pulling a back-stab on his US-UK allies and cutting a deal first. However that would preclude any German territorial gains at the Soviet Union's expense.

In Russia, they discard Zitadelle and adopt elastic defense and Manstein's Backhand Blow. It works, and Stalin loses a whole army group in the failed summer offensives, while the Germans spare the bulk of their strength.
Ah yes more Invincible Heer-master-race-supermen beating the sub-human-horde with effortless ease crap we see all too often on AH.:rolleyes: The only way this happens is if ASBs revert the Red Army back to it's 1941 state. Short of that the Manstein's tactics wont do the wonders people think, the Soviets will be slowed a little but the Germans cant just ''save'' their strength. No matter how much you try to handeave it. The Germans will be haemorrhaging manpower at an atrocious rate simply to hang on in the face a Red Army whose morale will have soared, German morale on the other hand will be worse than OTL.That will seriously undermine the Heer’s overall fighting capacity.

In Sicily, thanks to the additional troops, the Allied landing is a bloody failure. Roosevelt pressures for rushing Overlord, despite Churchill's misgivings.
Really? So the Allies just ignore the extra 200,000 German troops, without making changes to their OTL plans in any way, shape or form? Thats just silly, stop being silly.

Good luck to the Germans in keeping Sicily and those extra troops in suppy through, given that they have no navy and their airforce is far weaker than the Allies. Sardinia likely falls before Sicily in this POD, that’s the reall big change from OTL.

In Fall 1943, the Soviets keep suffering horrible losses, while the Germans lose relatively little ground and Stalin starts to stare the exhaustion of Soviet manpower reserves in the face, with a still strong Wehrmacht deep in oviet territory. He decides to cut his losses and makes a compromise peace with Germany, accepting the Dnieper border. Germany can transfer some forces to France and Italy.
Of course the Soviets must always lose all their manpower in hopeless zerg rush attacks, while the German suffer a couple of stubbed toes or whatever. Same old Axis-wank. In the real world the Germans will drain their own manpower pool at a faster rate than the Soviets simply to cling on. There is a good reason why the Germans were so badly outnumbered in the East this was due to combat losses not the commitments to other fronts. etc (Which only etx totaled 20% of German troop strength).

The Germans are not getting any land from Stalin at this stage, they're the ones looking at an utter defeat in the long-term. At best they get the 1939 borders, if Stalin has a stroke and suddenly turns pro-junta. Otherwise 1941 borders are what the Germans are getting in any peace deal and they'd have count themselve lucky too. Stalin could press for Russia's 1914 borders if he felt like it. The Germans have a weak bargaining position and it's the Soviets not the (west whom you seem to fixate on as a pack of witless surrender monkeys) are more likely to cut a deal.

In Spring 1944, a rushed Overlord meets a stronger Gwrman defense and becomes another bloodbath failure. The American electorate says Roosevelt "£$%& you and your war in Europe, it's an hopeless cause, let's focus on Japan", and he loses the election to an isolationist Republican candidate (Taft or Vandenberg, probably) running on a "Japan only" platform, while Churchill is overthrown by a vote of no confidence. The public doesn't have any idea the nukes are coming, and doesn't want to lose any more sons on seemingly hopeless attacks on Fortress Europe, now that the Soviets bailed out.
So they just ''stick to the plan'' in the face of this greater German build up in France eh? Also why is Overlord is failure again? Did the Allied navy and airforce all commit mass suicide just after the landings?

They's need to. Otherwise the Germans have no control over the skies or the channel, any troops commited to a forward defence of the landing beaches will still be overstretched and bombed relentlessly.

The Germans can contain the Allied landings longer and slow their breakout from Normandy, into the rest of France but stopping Overlord dead and throwing the Allied troops into the sea Overlord is just ASB.

In Fall 1944, The Western Allies and the EuroAxis sign a peace treaty that leaves the latter in control of continental Europe. Japan is nuked on schedule, but Axis Europe is not because they are already at peacewith America, there is an isolationist President in the White House who doesn't care too much if continental Europe is ruled by a German junta, and the same reasons apply why America didn't nuke the Soviet Union during the early Cold War. Say hello to a tripolar Cold War (but Hitler is dead, so Slavs under Axis rule don't fare too bad).
Oh Japan gets screwed on schedule, but your Nazi-Eu is preserved because western leaders have suddenly turned evil and stupid? If it happans then the three way Cold War would see Germany hanging onto Austria, Sudetenland and Danzig but little else.

Poland might be screwed (they're only Slavs right) or the German junta in a fit good sense, see Poland as too much trouble to outright annex and set up a puppet goverment in the old Central Government areas. Of course the Poles will still hate the Germans like poison and ipartisans will remain a major problem...


POD #1, Autumn, 1941. Hitler is convinced to accept the Ukrainians as cannon fodder. He also abandons North Africa, and transfers all available forces to Russia. The extra forces enable him to take Moscow weeks before the Siberian reinforcements arrive.
Ukraians hah, even the anti-Soviet ones in Westren Ukraine turned on the Germans almost instantly. Also why are the Ukrainians turning traitor in such numbers and agree to be witless cannon fodder? The old Germans greet as liberators myth no doubt. That only happened in the Baltic States and the part of Ukraine the Soviets annexed in 1941 and even then only for about a week. The best the Germans can hope for is the Ukraine dosnt turn partisan on them en-masse like OTL. And no matter what happens Germans is raising any credible fighting force using Ukrainian troops. The Soviet regimes popular support was far higher than many people seem to think otherwise it U.S.S.R would’ve collapsed after it’s early defeats.

POD #2, December 8, 1941. Instead of joining the Japanese by declaring war against the US, Hitler reproves them for not attacking Russia in Siberia instead, and declares a non-belligerent status against the United States. He also, through private channels, approaches the UK about a cease-fire. He's ceased to be a threat against the British Middle East, and reins in Mussolini in North Africa. He publicly offers the UK a guarantee that the Reich will not attempt to attack British interests in the Middle East or South Asia. Churchill says "no", but Parliament says "yes". Now it is just Germany against Russia, with no forces significantly tied up anywhere else, and Ukrainian troops as well.
Needless to say FDR will keep on annoying the Germans until Hitler snaps, a U-Boats sinks another US ship or whatever then jump on the chance to enter the war, US neutrality was illusive by 1941. And a good thing too! Thank god FDR had moral courage, even if many US of the time congressmen didn’t.

Parliament will tell Hitler to GTFO. After all Hitler was a serial treaty-breaking, warmongering, madman and the British Parliament wasn’t full of Sir Henry Stupid-Twat's. However much some people to wish it. Hitler by 1941 was perceived as a dangerous, untrustworthy, lunatic. He can say he really wubs the British Empire more than anything else in the whole wide world (except for Germany) all he wants. No-one in Britain will believe it. Viewing such an offer as a cynical German ploy to build up an invasion armada using resources loot from Europe etc.


POD #3, Stalingrad, Summer of 1942. Instead of attempting to capture Stalingrad, it is encircled and the Wehrmacht moves on beyond it. It is bombed constantly, but no German troops attempt to enter the city. When the Winter of 1942 arrives, the Germans are well situated in defensive positions all around the city.
Moves where? deeper into the Cauasus or across the Volga? Well uh oh it now sucks to be them, with Stalingrad still in Soviet hand they're in trouble. The was a reason the city had to be taken. I.E to secure the German flank and cut Soviet shipping along the Volga.

If the Soviets counter-attack at the right place and time the Germans could lose far more than just the 6th Army. They needed to capture Stalingrad very quickly (within a week or two) then focus in one direction in order for their campign in the Caucasus to succeed. Containing Stalingrad isnt anywhere near good enougth.

From their positions in Moscow, and east of Stalingrad, the Germans build Luftwaffe forward bases and mount constant sorties of Stukas and other light and medium bombers to attack and destroy all Russian railroad bridges, terminals, and rolling stock. The miracles of production the Russians manage in their factories east of the Urals do them little good, as they cannot move that equipment to the front for use.
If the Luftwaffe could do that they would've done it OTL, case closed.

The Wehrmacht institutes a policy of humane treatment for all captured Russian prisoners, including massive anti-communist indoctrination. Major propaganda efforts are mounted to convince the Russians that it's all Stalin's fault, and that conscripted troops, especially troops from the Asian republics, will be welcomed if they surrender and will be helped by the Germans to free the Asian republics from the USSR. Germany even sends food shipments from the Ukraine to the Asian republics.
Hahahaha" *draws breath* hahahahah. Yeah the rolling war-crime starts ''humane treatmeant'' of POWs, sorry buko. It wouldnt work in 1941 and it sure as hell wont work in 1943 after what the Germans have already done. The Soviets have just as much chance of using German POWs in combat using ''anti-Nazi'' indoctrination, inter-war Germany had plenty of Communists after all.

Also the Asian Republics didnt provide anywhere near the manpower Russia, Ukraine and the Caucasus did. Those areas provided far more troops than say Uzbekistan. Also these ''Mongol'' troops were regarded with utmost horror by the Germans whose hyper-racism precludes any meaningful co-operation. Assuming they could even recruit any, as the Central Asians proved to be surprisingly reliable troops for the Red Army. Also if the Germans send food from Ukraine to the Asian SSRs then they're just giving stuff to the Soviets for some reason.

By 1944, factions in the Red Army assassinate Stalin, and sue for peace.
There were several factions in the Red Army, the pro-Stalin one, the other pro-Stalin one and the other other pro-Stalin one. I could go on but you get the point I'm sure. The Red Army was gleded it had no more capacity for rebellion than a lap-dog. The Party however was a snakepit and they could remove Stalin, but only if the whole Politburo united against him and moved very fast.
 
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Urban: we're talking about scenarios where things work out. Of course most of the time Hitler's rotting brain will steer Germany straight into the ground, and then without him infighting wrecks everything. We're talking about the exceptions, get it?

Why don't you contribute with your own version of Germany's narrow path to victory? What's the latest POD in your opinion?

The Soviets didn't need to be bled much more than OTL. After 1942, they relied on reconquest for manpower. Stop the reconquest and they get into trouble very quickly.
 
Urban: we're talking about scenarios where things work out. Of course most of the time Hitler's rotting brain will steer Germany straight into the ground, and then without him infighting wrecks everything. We're talking about the exceptions, get it?

People are talking blatant nonsense, and he's correcting them.

He's said it all better than I could have, but a couple of points:

1) In Ukraine (and throughout the occupied USSR), collaborators got extra rations, whereas partisans got what they could steal, and pine-needles. For some mysterious reason, there were a lot more partisans. Maybe the Nazi plan to wipe Ukraine from the face of the earth had something to do with it? A fat lot an anti-Stalin course will convince you after the Germans lock your sister in a barn ad set fire to it.

2) Parliament was consistently less appeasing than the Chamberlain government. Where did this supine attitude come from?

3) Food shipments from the Ukraine? What food? As it turns out, locking people in barns on fire affects agriculture adversely, who'd have thought. Ukraine's diminished harvest was carried away to Germany to feed the Germans, who could only keep their own farms in operation through the extneisve use of foreign slave labour, hence why we saw mass-starvation in places like Kharkov.
 
I was talking about realism.

Hmm, 1941 was the German's best change. If they couldnt win with all the factors going for them at that time, then their chances of winning the war fade rapidly to nothing. Even a 1941 victory is pushing it through, the Germans only just got to Moscow but were far too worn down to take it...

As for bleeding the Soviets. Well it's a no starter, as I said the Germans wont be unaffected. They also have other fronts occupied territory to hold down and a smaller manpower reserve to draw on. So they’ll burn through their shallower pool of manpower far more quickly than the Soviet. Who are no longer in the desperate situation of 1941/2, which forced them to expend lots of manpower to slow galloping German advances.

After 1942 massed artiilery firepower, ground attack aircraft and armour were the Soviet greatist edge over the Germans not massed armies of infantry.
 
To get this scenario you basically need to have the Soviet Union join the Axis. This clearly makes Barbarossa a no-no. It probably also requires an act of Soviet aggression, I just can't see Britain and France/America directly seeking conflict with the Soviets. Seeing as joining the war at an early stage also goes against Stalin's plan it needs to be indirect aggression thus Finland is the best option it also needs to happen before the Fall Wesserbung or after Pearl Harbour else the Allies won't feel strong enough to do anything.

So let's have some wise Soviet officers convince Stalin that the Red Army is in incredibly bad shape and that attacking the country which Santa Claus lives in in winter is rather silly. Let's have him postpone it to the summer of 1942 after France falls and he is well aware of Germany looking for a way to go to war against the Soviet Union in a position of strength.

Meanwhile other events occur down south, preventing Barbarossa, Greece moves back to a better defence line in the mountains, only falling in August. Thus the invasion is postponed for 1942. Japan enters the war with similar results. As we enter June 1942 Stalin is sitting in a greater position of power than ever before, with the Red Army now superior to the Wehrmacht. Thus he feels he is now in a position to bully Germany, especially with the powerful US now in the fight. He goes ahead with invading Finland. Shocked at what the see is a global alliance of dictatorships and increasingly worried about Soviet support to the Axis in the form of large quantities of raw materials and use of naval bases. They're also misled by dated analysis of the Red Army (one report states a force of 50 Allied divisions would be equal to 250 Soviet ones) thus Baku is subject to heavy bombing from Iran and US forces land in Finland to get a baptism of fire.

The result is a disaster. The Migs and Yaks defending Baku as well as it's numerous Flak batteries inflict heavy casualties on allied planes whilst also only destroying one refinery. Finnish and the initial American troops, whilst brave, are no match for the best Soviet armoured divisions under Shtern. Finland soon falls along with Midway after a bloody Carrier battle leaves the US Carrier force in ruins and the Japanese in control of the island. Hitler shelves Barbarossa, replacing it with a new frontier of cooperation with the Soviet Union. The Polish border is vacated to a large extent for a new middle eastern offensive. By the end of 1943, Zhukov and Rommel shake hands in Basra. Attempts from both sides to bomb either Britain or Germany ends in stalemate.

To ensure Axis victory at this pin there are still two very important things to do. First remove the Deus ex Nukina by causing a horrible accident in the Manhattan Project, killing off most of their finest minds with Fuchs being one of the few survivors. Meanwhile, Hitler fortunately suffers a stroke, leaving Himmler in charge of the Third Reich. He immediately begins initiatives for cooperative projects with the Soviets against the USA. Namely ICBM's and the Nukes to put in them.


A combination of Mao switching sides and an all out Soviet invasion in 1944, leads to China collapsing and bowing out of the war, which increases pressure on India which also looks like it might fall, although the south of the country manages to stay in Allied control, barely, it doesn't save Churchill's premiership however, his replacement quickly making peace in exchange for an Axis pull out in India.

FDR dies in June 1944 of a massive stroke, only to be replaced by Henry Wallace, the outspoken socialist. Isolationist President TaftBritain is out of the war and America has no route into Europe. The Pacific is little better, where Soviet armour, Japanese fanaticism and German nerve gas make the island campaigns of OTL look like Alton Towers. FDR dies in June 1944 of a massive stroke, only to be replaced by Henry Wallace, the outspoken socialist. Isolationist President Taft soon replaces him.

The joint Axis projects finally bear fruit in 1946. A Von Braun-Korolev Rcoket carries a Kurcatov-Diebner bomb to Washington. The capital is incinerated. The US does not collapse of course, or even declare martial law. But there is a consensus that the war is only going to get worse. They exit the war soon after. Britain, Australia and New Zealand becoming little more than puppets of the Axis.

1947 begins with democracy being declared a failed experiment. Sure the US had kept it's independence for now. But Himmler and Stalin know that that's a momentary blip. There will be new tanks and jets and gas and ships and rockets and most importantly bombs.

The world belongs to the Axis.

-------------------------------

How's that?
 
Why the heck would Himmler of people be willing to collaborate with the Soviet Union?

This is the man who said things like :
"The decision, therefore, lies here in the East; here must the Russian enemy, this people numbering two hundred million Russians, be destroyed on the battle field and person by person, and made to bleed to death ."
 
Why the heck would Himmler of people be willing to collaborate with the Soviet Union?

This is the man who said things like :
"The decision, therefore, lies here in the East; here must the Russian enemy, this people numbering two hundred million Russians, be destroyed on the battle field and person by person, and made to bleed to death ."

He was also chillingly pragmatic and somewhat intelligent, he's probably see continued alliance with the Soviet Union as in Germany best interests.
 
Urban Fox,

I agree with you. Yeah, some of those can be defended in detail, but in aggregate the plausibility goes down.

On the other hand, the OP asked for an Axis-wank scenario. So dial down the dudgeon.
 
The problem remains the atomic bomb which the US would be able to use on Berlin by summer of 1945. If not for that...

Operation Valkyrie is a startling success, largely due to Himmler's unexpected decision to join the meeting and die with Hitler. This added bonus spurs numerous officers to join the coup while the SS is briefly paralyzed. By the time a new leader appears(Mueller) Berlin has gone over to the revolt along with most Wehrmacht officers and, in a surprise development, Goering also goes along with what he sees as the winning side.

However, it is the decision by certain of the more pragmatic SS officers, Dietl coming to mind, to accept the change in government which ensures that the new provisional government will hold.

A heated debate continues to this day as to whether these SS figures were genuine converts or hoping for an opportunity for revenge which never came.​

The orders per OTL Operation Valkyrie are sent and acting chancellor Carl Goerdeler publicly calls for peace talks with the Western Allies. Per advice from the recently wounded Field Marshal Rommel he also orders all German forces in Holland, Belgium and the remaining French territory held to withdraw to Germany's western border.

Shortly thereafter he orders the evacuation of remaining German forces in the Baltic States as well as from Scandinavia and the Balkans. Although only partially successful, particularly in the case of the Baltic States where less than half the manpower and little equipment beyond infantry weapons were saved, this adds more than fifty divisions of trained manpower to Germany's defense lines on the Western Wall, the Vistula and northern Italy.


Given Stalin's paranoia, Churchill's concerns for the post-war world and FDR's failing health this would seem likely to prolong the war past FDR's death, the likely diplomatic fallout alone quite plausibly hastening FDR's passing, and...

Well? Ideas?



If I might follow on Urban Fox's post, one reason Hitler got away with so much is because in the first years, from 1936-1941 there were several confrontations over strategy between Hitler and the German generals and it was the generals who were consistently proven wrong. That was a massive obstacle to any attempt to overthrow Hitler as it would clearly be led by officers whose sole interest was not one of moral values but simply getting off a sinking ship.
 
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